Bye-bye Bush bounce. Newsweek's post-debate poll shows a drop for Bush:

In the first national telephone poll using a fresh sample, NEWSWEEK found the race now statistically tied among all registered voters, 47 percent of whom say they would vote for Kerry and 45 percent for George W. Bush in a three-way race.

Take out Nader, and Kerry's ahead:

Removing Independent candidate Ralph Nader, who draws 2 percent of the vote, widens the Kerry-Edwards lead to three points with 49 percent of the vote versus the incumbent's 46 percent.

It's a bigger drop for Bush than you might think:

Four weeks ago the Republican ticket, coming out of a successful convention in New York, enjoyed an 11-point lead over Kerry-Edwards with Bush pulling 52 percent of the vote and the challenger just 41 percent.

I think Edwards will shine against Cheney Tuesday night. Especially if Cheney comes off arrogant or know-it-all-ish. There doesn't seem to be warm bone in his body...in contrast to John Edwards who makes you want to invite him in for dinner.

Ok, so it may be too early to write Bush/Cheney off, but that's the direction they are headed. Maybe they should have pulled their October surprise in September.

Memeorandum has a wrap-up of other bloggers' comments on the Newsweek poll. David Neiwert of Orcinus tracks the dirt the Repbugs have resorted to so far in the campaign and says we can expect it to get much worse.