Republicans reserve the right, individually, to support the nuclear option if they believe Democrats are abusing the agreement. Democrats said the final language on that point is closer to what they had wanted. But at the news conference, DeWine explicitly said that if the agreement breaks down, Republicans in the group feel free to support the use of the nuclear option.

The presidential election is in November, 2008. Inauguration is January, 2009. If the Republicans win a majority in the Senate in 2006, they can re-launch the nuclear option in early 2007, and we're back to square one. If they win the nuclear option then, Bush is free to name Supreme Court justices for the duration of 2007 and all of 2008 - without a filibuster -- while we're stuck with Owen, Rogers Brown and Pryor and who knows who else on the appeals courts.

All this did was pass the buck to the next congress - yet Democrats are stuck with 3 judges we could have filibustered if we held out. Reid had 49 votes - I think he had the extra two and we would have defeated the nuclear option and Owen, Rogers Brown and Pryor. I think Frist knew it which is why he gave in. You don't think he leaned on the indecisives and made them tell him privately what they were going to do? You don't think they told him, "Don't do this, You can't count on me?"

I don't believe Arlen Specter or John Warner would have voted for the nuclear option. They have been Senators too long and the Senate as an institution is too engrained in them. They, and possibly a few others, care more about preserving their Senate Club than they do anything else. They would not have voted for a rule of order that would have bypassed Senate Rules and 200 years of Senate tradition.

Also, keep in mind, the compromise is is not a bill that passed the Senate, went on to the House, was signed by the President, and became law. This is a piece of paper signed by 14 Senators expressing their commitment to vote a certain way. 86 Senators were not a party to the agreement and are not bound by it. The Senate leaders, Frist and Reid, are not bound by it. Today, these 14 Senators banded together as an oligarchy, and agreed not to change the Senate rules, provided all 100 of them act in good faith. As soon as one believes another has not acted in good faith, he or she is free to re-launch the nuclear option.

I am reconsidering one conclusion from my earlier observation: While this is a win for Bush and the Federalist Society and Dobson, this might not be a win for Frist. Dobson's press release criticizing Frist came so soon after the announcement of the compromise, that I'm wondering whether Dobson had already abandoned Frist - probably at the moment it became clear Frist couldn't muster the 51 votes, even with Cheney. Frist may be toast in terms of future aspirations, but from a practical standpoint, it makes no difference. Dobson and the radical right fringe will find another errand boy and the move towards a theocracy will continue.

One more thing: This played out in almost the exact scenario I warned against last week, so why am I so surprised and disappointed? After outlining the terms of the compromise, I said,

Centrism never works, in my opinion. It's like a divorce settlement. Afterwards, both sides felt they gave too much. And there's not even a judge to blame.

Sometimes it's better to just roll the dice. So everyone, whichever side you are on, call your senators and tell them, No Retreat, No Surrender.

Maybe activism doesn't work either. Many on both the right and the left today feel betrayed. It seems like we all got tooled. By 14 centrists, no less.