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North Korea May Be Preparing Second Test

By Jeralyn, Section Foreign Affairs
Posted on Mon Oct 09, 2006 at 10:39:06 AM EST
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Australian news reports that North Korea seems to be preparing for a second nuclear weapon test.

Kim Seung-Gyu, head of South Korea's spy agency, told parliament that activity involving vehicles and as many as 40 people was under way at Punggyeri in the north-eastern county of Kilju, Yonhap news agency reported.

"From 4pm (AEST) today, there have been some unusual movements under way at Punggyeri where we had thought the first nuclear test would be carried out," Mr Kim was quoted as saying. "We have been closely following developments there to find out whether North Korea is moving to conduct a series of tests as India and Pakistan did," he said.

What we should do about Korea is far beyond my expertise, but Matt Yglesias and Brad Plumer have some thoughts.

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    • North Korea May Be Preparing Second Test | 15 comments (15 topical)
    Re: North Korea May Be Preparing Second Test (none / 0) (#8)
    by Sailor on Mon Oct 09, 2006 at 12:44:18 PM EST
    The only viable options use big airplanes and cruise missles with USA stamped on their sides.
    There are no conventional weapons that go thru mountains and then we have an enemy with nukes that has an excuse to use them on us. Good thinking there.

    Re: North Korea May Be Preparing Second Test (none / 0) (#10)
    by Sailor on Mon Oct 09, 2006 at 01:13:26 PM EST
    BTW, does anybody know whether the 1st test was actually successful?

    Re: North Korea May Be Preparing Second Test (none / 0) (#4)
    by Al on Mon Oct 09, 2006 at 01:31:23 PM EST
    North Korea has no reason to attack any country with a first nuclear strike. But it is clear that attacking North Korea would have disastrous consequences. Hence, I agree the Chinese, the South Koreans, and the Japanese may be extremely nervous, not so much at the chance of being attacked by North Korea, but at the chance of the US attacking North Korea first. You know, the whole "axis of evil" thing. Obviously Kim Jong Il does not wish to follow in Saddam Hussein's footsteps if he can help it. You can't have it both ways: The US government wants to be free to put nuclear weapons in space, develop tactical nukes, and tear up the ABM treaty, but expresses consternation at the arms race that results. I think the PNAC chickens are coming home to roost. The PNAC boys thought they could terrify the whole world into submission. Instead, they triggered unwinnable wars and arms races, causing nothing but grief. The question is now how to turn around this insane arms race before anyone gets hurt.

    Re: North Korea May Be Preparing Second Test (none / 0) (#5)
    by Al on Mon Oct 09, 2006 at 01:31:23 PM EST
    Because of this comment moderation thing, I wrote my last comment before I was able to read PPJ's:
    The only viable options use big airplanes and cruise missles with USA stamped on their sides.
    See what I mean?

    Re: North Korea May Be Preparing Second Test (none / 0) (#6)
    by Talkleft Visitor on Mon Oct 09, 2006 at 01:31:23 PM EST
    wouldn't a 2nd test suggest that the initial test didn't go as planned?

    Re: North Korea May Be Preparing Second Test (none / 0) (#7)
    by Dadler on Mon Oct 09, 2006 at 01:31:23 PM EST
    Willing to nuke Seoul to achieve what purpose? Countries get nukes so they WON'T get invaded. That is the most glaring and obvious reason. Hell, we would've gone into Pakistan in a heartbeat after 9/11 were it not for their own nukes. North Korea is essentially a cult. And we better think about that really hard before we decide that, shucks, we just need to treat them like we treated Saddaam or any dictator. They're all the same anyway, right? A cult. Requiring a unique and informed set of skills to deal with. Kind of like counter-insurgency knowledge, of which our military enshrined NONE prior to our current middle east adventures (lessons of Vietnam, who needs 'em?). Contain, engage, feed, clothe, house. Do more for them than their cult leader does. Just like we should've done more for the Iraqi people than their own cult-like leader did. Instead, we brought them chaos.

    Re: North Korea May Be Preparing Second Test (none / 0) (#9)
    by Talkleft Visitor on Mon Oct 09, 2006 at 01:31:23 PM EST
    as opposed to doing nothing with an enemy that periodically lobs missiles our way? good thinking there. let's offer carrots, instead.

    Re: North Korea May Be Preparing Second Test (none / 0) (#3)
    by Talkleft Visitor on Mon Oct 09, 2006 at 01:31:24 PM EST
    First of all we need to understand why North Korea would want nukes to begin with and then to understand all the injustices that have been done to the North Koreans throughout history. Secondly, if Israel can have nukes why can't North Korea? I mean, we have nukes and we're the only country to ever use them so we don't have any moral authority to tell another sovereign country what they can do. And all this is just to distract the U.S. on Columbus Day when the racists are celebrating the conquering of the indigenous peoples by the white man...

    Re: North Korea May Be Preparing Second Test (none / 0) (#11)
    by Skyho on Mon Oct 09, 2006 at 02:00:56 PM EST
    as opposed to doing nothing with an enemy that periodically lobs missiles our way? good thinking there. let's offer carrots, instead.
    All I can say it is a good thing we didn't have to show the world our seriously flawed missile "defense" system. The embarrassment of having a North Korean dummy missile impact downtown Seattle after our much vaulted missile defense system proved ineffective would likely do much to highlight that our "king" has no clothes. Not that he ever did. It would just be pretty hard for our "media" to cover up that particular piece of lunacy.

    Re: North Korea May Be Preparing Second Test (none / 0) (#12)
    by scarshapedstar on Mon Oct 09, 2006 at 02:05:11 PM EST
    The only viable options use big airplanes and cruise missles with USA stamped on their sides.
    In other words, mission accomplished? I mean, the whole "f*ck things up so badly that we have no choice but to start bombing" worked out so well the first two times, didn't it? Let's roll! Yeehaw!

    Re: North Korea May Be Preparing Second Test (none / 0) (#13)
    by Che's Lounge on Mon Oct 09, 2006 at 02:07:41 PM EST
    Well that's just a great job of winning the war on terror. How again has Bush kept us safe? Fortunately for redneck america, we have at least 2-3 ballistic missile subs, each with 24 missiles (or more), with each missile carrying around 8 individually targeted thermonuclear devices, cruising a hundred miles off of the coast of North Korea. We can vaporize the entire country in 30 minutes and everyone knows it. They just conveniently forget it.

    Re: North Korea May Be Preparing Second Test (none / 0) (#15)
    by Sailor on Mon Oct 09, 2006 at 04:04:49 PM EST
    as opposed to doing nothing with an enemy that periodically lobs missiles our way? good thinking there. let's offer carrots, instead.
    I can't wait for the day when anonymous cowards are once again banned from TL.

    Re: North Korea May Be Preparing Second Test (none / 0) (#14)
    by kdog on Mon Oct 09, 2006 at 06:10:50 PM EST
    as opposed to doing nothing with an enemy
    Why are they are enemy again? I mean I know we fought a war there and the country has been split in two ever since. But why the need for constant animosity? An Eisenhower speech comes to mind... As Che pointed out, we could remove N. Korea from the map if they fired at us, which would prevent them from doing so. Even Krazy Kim doesn't want to die. And as everyone has pointed out, N. Korea needs a nuke to be a player and prevent agression against them. M.A.D....it's our game, it ain't going nowhere, it's dangerous...but it kind of works.

    Re: North Korea May Be Preparing Second Test (none / 0) (#17)
    by Che's Lounge on Mon Oct 09, 2006 at 07:38:57 PM EST
    South Korea might be presauded to stop the support if they start to understand that North Korea is perfectly capable and willing to nuke Seoul.. What BS. Got links?

    Re: North Korea May Be Preparing Second Test (none / 0) (#16)
    by Richard Aubrey on Mon Oct 09, 2006 at 09:14:59 PM EST
    You can't tell if the test failed until you know what it was supposed to do. If it was supposed to be a big explosion, it fizzled. It could have been a huge conventional explosion set off to spook the west. It could have been a successful test of a very small nuke. The concept of deterrence needs several items to function properly. One is the boss(es) who start something think they'll die. In other words, they'll be on scene when the retaliation comes in, instead of, say, in Monaco, or Damascus. Another is the presumption that we would, indeed, retaliate massively. I believe the Norks are counting on folks like the commenters on this blog to sap the will to retaliate. They may be right. You may succeed. Or you may not. The question is whether they think you have succeeded. Deterrence requires the other side to believe. If they don't believe, they start something, we retaliate, and lots of people are dead. Or they start something, we don't retaliate, and they do some more, and lots of people are dead. It was one thing when it was Moscow or Beijing as primary target. If we get a missile fired from, say, a swamp on the Kamchatka peninsula, who really fired it? The Russians have lost control, the Chinese are sniffing around, and maybe a ship in the middle of the Sea of Okhotsk belongs to al Q. Who we gonna shoot back at? We may know, but the other side may think we don't. Do we shoot back at everybody? Just in case? And what do the bad guys think we think of that question? MAD doesn't work in this situation.

    North Korea May Be Preparing Second Test | 15 comments (15 topical)