George Zimmerman: The Most Likely Scenario
Posted on Sun May 27, 2012 at 08:05:00 AM EST
Tags: George Zimmerman, Trayvon Martin (all tags)
As I've written previously, the changes in statements of W-6 (John), W-12 (wife of w-13) and W-2 (the sister without her contacts who saw, and then didn't see, two figures chasing each other) are not a big deal.
Now that I've listened to all of the witness recordings, and most of them several times, I think the most important witnesses are W-11 and W-20, W-13, and W-6. They heard or saw the most, and were in the best position to discern what was happening. None has the whole story, but each of their accounts mesh and each fills in gaps in the accounts of the others, combining to make a coherent and consistent chronology. [More]
[Here is my latest map with the house numbers removed from witness locations as the parties are arguing that information should not be made public]
Listen to all John's interviews: He's positive that Trayvon, the darker complected man with the dark shirt, was on top during the physical struggle, and Zimmerman, the lighter complected man with the red and white shirt, was on the bottom, and that during the struggle, George Zimmerman was trying to get up.
Almost every neighbor verifies hearing John say, "Hey what's going on" and/or "I'm going to call 911." This includes W-3 who lives next door to him on one side, and W-11 and 20, who live next door to him on the other side, W-1, one of the two sisters across the way, and W-19, also across the way, who was getting ready to let her dog out.
Look at the daytime photos in the discovery taken the day after the shooting, by Crime Scene Tech Diana Smith. She chose what to photograph, most likely based on what she understood to be the key locations that would either corroborate or refute GZ's version, as related to the officers who interviewed him the night before and the witness statements obtained the night before.
Her photos include the place GZ said his car was parked, the walk along the top of the T to Retreat View Circle and back, the front and back of 2861 Retreat View Circle, the back, side and front of 1211 Twin Trees Lane, the place the body was located behind 1221 Twin Trees Lane, and the view down "the T" towards the house Trayvon was staying.
The witnesses whose homes had shared backyards on the T between Retreat View Circle and Twin Trees Lane, and who lived at the top of the T, all first heard unidentifiable noises, then fighting type sounds, then yells for help, and then the shot. They all say the noises grew louder and fighting more apparent as they came down the T where they ended up behind 1221 Twin Trees Lane in John's backyard.
No one saw the beginning of the confrontation or struggle. But witnesses heard the onset. W-11 and W-20, who live in the house at the corner of the T and Twin Trees Lane had windows on both the T side and the backyard side, as did W-13 and W-12. W-11 and 20 heard what sounded a scuffle coming from the Northwest, which would be right on the sidewalk leading back to GZ's car, just west of the T. They then heard the sounds come around to the back, as if they turned a corner onto the T, behind their closed-in porch. The sounds grew louder and W-20 heard "help" -- maybe 20 times. They called 911 and stayed upstairs. They heard their neighbor, W-6, call out ask what's going on and saying he was calling 911.
Officer Serino says on page 5 of his 13 page report dated March 13, that he listened to W-11's 911 call and heard "help" 14 times in 38 seconds before the shot.
The shot is loudest in their call because they are right there. The are describing an encounter that began at or a few feet west of the T and the pet waste can. That's just where GZ was walking back to his car, returning from the place where the sidewalk he was walking on ended at Retreat View Circle.
GZ did not have TM in sight when the dispatcher told him they didn't need him to follow TM. He responded OK. He didn't follow him after that. He didn't know where Trayvon was. He continued walking towards the front of the Retreat View Circle, where the first house is 2861, home to W-13 and W-12. He then turned around to walk back to his car. He just passed the T and the pet waste can when Travyon came up on his left. After a few brief vocal exchanges, which even according to Dee Dee were initiated by Trayvon, GZ got punched and fell down. This may have been at the T or in the grass right off the T, in the backyard of W-11 and W-20. After getting his nose broken is most likely when the sounds turned into cries and wails for help -- by George Zimmerman.
George Zimmerman was walking back to his truck along this path, right about the T, when Trayvon popped out from somewhere and asked why he was following him. Within a minute, the encounter turned physical. The first sounds heard were scuffles and "arghs." Not screams or cries for help. GZ was then on the ground with a broken nose. They were off the T, on the grass at the top of the path between the shared backyards. They continued grappling as they moved down the path to the back of John's house, where they rolled onto the concrete, and GZ started crying out for help even louder, since now it was not just his nose, but the back of his head getting smacked. Trayvon was still on top of him.As W-6, "John" was dialing 911 because they didn't stop tussling after he yelled "Cut it out" and told them he was going to call 911, the shot rang out.
After that, W-13 comes out. GZ is standing and he asks if he should call 911. GZ says he already did. GZ says he has a gun and shot him in self-defense. (W-6 says he overheard this.)
W-13 takes photos of his injuries, the cops arrive, and GZ, in handcuffs, asks W-13 to call his wife and tell her he shot someone.
The other witnesses were too far down to hear the the struggle before the cries for help. After the shot, when they realized a young boy was killed, they came to the conclusion the voice they heard was that of a young boy.
Another witness whose house backed up to the top of the T, and was not along the sidewalk of shared backyards (described by most as the overly distraught Teacher), first heard noises similar to the others whose homes had windows along the T. She calls 911 after the shot, before she sees Zimmerman or Trayvon. She says she didn't have her windows open and didn't look when she first heard the noise, assuming someone was out walking their dog. She heard the voices get louder and what sounded like an argument. She looked out and saw two people wrestling, and tells the 911 operator it was too dark to see anything distinguishable.
She tells him she then heard help and the shot and decided to call 911. As she finishes this part of the story, she sees the flashlights and Zimmerman surrendering and a young boy on the ground. She then changes her story as to what she said moments earlier, and now says she saw the larger man on top during the struggle. In later versions, she could see he was Hispanic and she knows it was the young boy crying out for help. She knew none of this before the police arrived.
The only thing credible about the Teacher's account is what she said first: She heard voices outside her home, which would be on the T, not down the T on the row of shared houses. Her reference to 10 feet outside her window is either the T, where GZ was walking back to his car, or she's grossly misstated the distance. The voices grew louder and there was a wrestling but it was too dark for her to make out the individuals. They were probably still at the T or just off it, right where W-11 and W-20 heard the same thing. Both describe the first part of the struggle which was on grass. Neither saw what happened next when the struggle reached the back of John's house -- that it had moved from the grass to the concrete. Neither can refute what John saw, that Trayvon continued to be on top once it moved from the grass to the concrete.
W-13's wife, W-12 describes the same thing: voices that didn't sound like a fight, more like dog growls, growing louder, and then becoming "help" and then a shot. She too says it was so dark she only saw shadows. She couldn't tell the size of the persons or who was on top. Even after the shot when she looked out, she couldn't identify anyone's characteristics. Then her husband went out and talked to one of the guys and people had flashlights. In an interview a month after the shooting, she says based on media pictures, she thinks the guy on top was bigger, and from what she's seen in the media photos, that would have to be Zimmerman.
They try the sisters and get nowhere -- one even confirms John's account that he came out and asked what's going on, and said he was going to call 911. Same with W-19, who was letting her dog out and got home just in time to hear the cries for help. All she saw was her neighbor across the way (John, W-6) come out and ask if all was okay and say he was going to call 911. Then she heard the shot and ran upstairs to call 911.
The investigation by FDLE and the state's attorney's office was more cursory than that of the Sanford Police. On March 19, they tell Zimmerman's father haven’t made any conclusions and "It’s a mess." They start looking for anything to refute Zimmerman. They try W-3 who still thinks the person on top had a white t-shirt, even though she says she knows she's confused because neither had a white t-shirt on. She's no help to them.
They obviously (and for good reason) discount the roommates who saw and heard no struggle, just a cry for help and a shot and went from "Selma, is it a black guy who got shot?" and "There's a black guy standing over him" on the 911 call to making press conferences with Team Crump and going on TV repeatedly insisting they both saw everything from the moment of the shot, it was the boy crying out for help and this wasn't self defense.
Knowing there was no evidence to refute Zimmerman, the state investigators and prosecutors began concentrating on motive. Prosecutor de la Rionda interviews W-13, only interested in hearing him say Zimmerman acted like it was no big deal when he asked W-13 to call his wife and tell her he shot someone.
De la Rionda's only question for W-6, John, is whether he heard a loud punching sound when he observed Trayvon on top of Zimmerman. Is he going to argue there's no evidence Trayvon was still beating Zimmerman when Zimmerman shot him, and therefore his fear of serious bodily injury should have subsided and was no longer reasonable?
What is the state left with? Its motion for protective order is being misinterpreted by the media,. The state does not say that George Zimmerman's statements prove he's guilty.
Read it carefully. It says there are some inconsistencies and contradictions in Zimmerman's various statements. It doesn't say those make him guilty. It says Zimmerman's statements "in conjunction with" physical evidence and witness statements, establish his guilt. Which is another way of saying that GZ's statements, by themselves, don't make their case.
The state isn't dumb enough to rely on phone friend Dee Dee other than in a minor, supporting role. The roommates and the Teacher would be demolished on cross-examination by what they said on their 911 calls. If these witnesses are not credible, and don't fill in the blanks as to what immediately preceded the shooting, it won't matter much that they contradict Zimmerman in other particulars. It needs more, and it doesn't seem to have it.
Why Zimmerman reported Trayvon to the non-emergency number is a red herring. It doesn't matter if he profiled him or unfairly suspected him of criminal activity. It doesn't matter that he was a crime warrior. He didn't break the law. His neighborhood watch program, set up with the assistance of the police, instructed residents to report suspicious activity. That's what he did. He wasn't on watch that night, he had a concealed weapons permit, and it wasn't a crime to get out of his car to see where Trayvon had run off to, so he could tell the police when they got there.
All that matters legally is whether Trayvon Martin's physical attack on him caused him to reasonably believe he was in danger of serious bodily injury or death. Zimmerman's testimony, which is supported by proof of his injuries and witnesses observing the struggle, is that Martin broke his nose and banged his head against cement. He tried to get up and couldn't. Using an objective standard, a reasonable person in that situation would fear imminent serious bodily injury if he didn't react with force.
The state is unlikely to prevail in arguing Zimmerman was the aggressor because to be the aggressor, Zimmerman had to contemporaneously provoke the force Martin used against him. Zimmerman's profiling of Martin and call to the non-emergency number were not contemporaneous with Martin's attack. Even if the state could convince a judge or jury that Zimmerman was following Martin, rather than walking back to his car, rendering his pursuit a contemporaneous act, it is not an act that provokes Martin's use of force against him. Demanding someone account for their presence does not provoke the use of force. Even if it could be construed to be provocation for using force, all it means is Zimmerman had to attempt reasonable means to extricate himself before using deadly force in response. W-6's steadfast insistence that Zimmerman was struggling to get up and out from under Trayvon, right before the shot went off, fulfills that requirement. Zimmerman will say the same. And no witnesses saw anything different.
Zimmerman should prevail on classic self-defense at trial regardless of stand your ground. Raising stand your ground before trial gives him the possibility of a quicker win, and the opportunity to preview the state's strategy before it gets to a jury.
The problem for Zimmerman is the notoriety of this case -- any judge is going to want to avoid making that call and find a reason to let the case go to the jury.
How would the Judge do this? The judge might say the physical evidence is a wash, and doesn't amount to a preponderance of the evidence in Zimmerman's favor. He might say since the witnesses didn't see the onset of the struggle, or have a clear view of what each party was doing at the time of the shot or in the seconds leading up to it, there is only Zimmerman's testimony, which witnesses don't support on other details, and therefore he hasn't proved stand your ground by a preponderance. Judges have a lot of tricks at their disposal when they want to avoid ruling in a certain way. This one is called, kick the can down the road.
If Zimmerman Attorney Mark O'Mara believes the Judge will find some way to wriggle out of ruling in Zimmerman's favor at a Stand your Ground hearing, the question becomes, should he even try for it? It would give the state a free preview of his defense case at trial, giving the state additional time to find specific arguments and witnesses to refute it. On the other hand, it gives the defense a free test-drive on cross-examination of the state's witnesses.
The state might make a fatal mistake in trying to put on character evidence for Trayvon. A good team of private investigators for the defense will dig to the end of the earth and find witnesses to refute the character testimony, either canceling it out, at best, or leaving the jury with a jaundiced view of Trayvon. For his parents, that would be like a second murderous act.
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