Iowa: Not Impressed

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2024
Posted on Tue Jan 16, 2024 at 09:01:55 PM EST
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The media is over-playing the significance of Trump's win among the 15% (110,000) of Iowa's Republicans who showed up to vote in yesterday's Republican caucuses, and in its entrance polls. The last contested Iowa caucus was in 2016, and 187,000 Republicans showed up to vote.

Winning the Republican caucus vote in Iowa does not translate to winning the Republican nomination for President. Caucuses are different than primaries and mean a whole lot less. Just look at the statistics for Iowa Republican caucuses in 2008, 2012 and 2016. Also, the candidate with the most number of delegates is the one who wins a party's nomination, not the one who won the most votes or has the greatest percentage of the vote.

Trump's win is slightly more than a nothing-burger, but not by much. It certainly does not mean he will be the party's nominee.

Iowa has 730,000 registered Republican voters. Only 110,000 showed up to vote yesterday. Donald Trump got 51% of the 110,000 votes and won all but one county. He lost by one vote to Nikki Haley in Johnson County. Overall, Ron DeSantis came in second, with 21,000 votes to Haley's 19,000 votes.

In 2016, 186,874 Republicans voted with Ted Cruz beating Donald Trump in Iowa, with a large amount of evangelical voters. The vote total was 186,874 votes.

In 2012, 121,501 voters turned out (20% of registered Republicans and 5 percent of all Iowans eligible to vote). Rick Santorum won by a 34 vote margin over Mitt Romney. By the time the convention came around, Santorum got no Iowa delegates, Romney got 6 and third-runner up Ron Paul got 22.

In 2008, 120,000 Republicans voted in the caucuses, with Mike Huckabee winning by 10,000 votes over Mitt Romney. Huckabee dominated the evangelical vote by more than 27 points over Romney. Huckabee got 13 delegates to Mitt Romney's 9 delegates and John McCain's 5 delegates.

The mainstream media yesterday feigned and flaunted their entrance polling. Especially about their attitudes towards Trump as a potential convicted felon and their belief the 2020 election was stolen.

This is such a small sampling of voters. America is so much bigger.

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Iowa: Not Impressed | 50 comments (50 topical)

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That purported Tr*mp quote from 1998 (5.00 / 2) (#5)
by Peter G on Wed Jan 17, 2024 at 11:47:01 AM EST

by the way, is fake. Debunked by Snopes in 2015 and repeatedly since.

: It probably persists (5.00 / 2) (#6)
by CaptHowdy on Wed Jan 17, 2024 at 01:19:56 PM EST

because it sounds so much like something he would say

The only winner of the Iowa... (5.00 / 2) (#10)
by desertswine on Wed Jan 17, 2024 at 09:17:24 PM EST

Republican caucus was Vlad Putin.

Well (5.00 / 2) (#11)
by FlJoe on Thu Jan 18, 2024 at 07:08:49 AM EST

I think Jeremy should STFU

"I wish the Democrats would think a little more carefully when they talk about MAGA," Dimon told CNBC on Wednesday from the World Economic Forum in Davos.

Yes let us be nice to people who think we are vermin and want to exterminate us.

All I got to say is FK your feelings and rot in hell.

Dimon (5.00 / 2) (#17)
by KeysDan on Thu Jan 18, 2024 at 12:49:56 PM EST

is a MAGA and doesn't want to be trash-talked. He says Trump was right on many things. Oh. and many of his clients are MAGAts.

It simply is a matter of "style"---for example, some presidents who disagree with their vice presidents may chose to ignore them or drop them from the ticket. The style of the criminal defendant Trump is to him hanged.

Dimon is just calling for respect for those whose opinions differ and for those who support those opinions, even when those opinions acted upon are hateful or unlawful. Dimon looks at the big picture--low taxes and no regulations are good for his business.


: Tax (5.00 / 1) (#18)
by FlJoe on Thu Jan 18, 2024 at 01:25:47 PM EST

cuts Uber Alles and deregulation will set you free.

I saw this (none / 0) (#12)
by CaptHowdy on Thu Jan 18, 2024 at 07:15:07 AM EST

WTactualF

I don't even understand the point. We are supposed to assimilate the fascists? Hard pass.
We will beat and humiliate them.

Think this pud has ever met a Trump voter?
Not a Trump donor, a Walmart shopping Trump voter.


He obviously (5.00 / 1) (#13)
by Ga6thDem on Thu Jan 18, 2024 at 08:17:03 AM EST

has never met one of those Walmart Trump voters or either he is fine with the screech "The Jews will not replace us".

This guy has spent too much time reading the NYT and their profiles of the "salt of the earth" Trump voter at the diner.

Beyond all that this really annoys me because apparently the GOP can call anybody horrible names but oh, no, don't hurt the feelings of MAGA. Truly they are the real snowflakes.


Exactly (5.00 / 1) (#24)
by Zorba on Thu Jan 18, 2024 at 07:33:53 PM EST

They can dish it out, but they can't take it.
They're like middle school bullies.


Maybe its just (none / 0) (#14)
by CaptHowdy on Thu Jan 18, 2024 at 08:57:45 AM EST

a plan to avoid death threats.


No (5.00 / 2) (#15)
by FlJoe on Thu Jan 18, 2024 at 10:18:29 AM EST

he is one of the "Mussolini made the trains run on time and Hitler liked dogs" crowd.


There is (none / 0) (#26)
by Ga6thDem on Fri Jan 19, 2024 at 09:22:33 AM EST

some credence to that argument as we've seen the terrorism from maga but he's so insulated I don't see that as his reasoning.


: Nancys husband (none / 0) (#28)
by CaptHowdy on Fri Jan 19, 2024 at 09:33:59 AM EST

was well protected.

Obviously there needs to be.. (none / 0) (#16)
by desertswine on Thu Jan 18, 2024 at 10:55:02 AM EST

a limit on wealth.


see my comment #184 in the previous posting. (5.00 / 1) (#21)
by Chuck0 on Thu Jan 18, 2024 at 04:21:25 PM EST

As I said, the number of people who voted for the Orange Marmalade is about one-fifth the population of York County, PA. Seems like a nothing burger to me.

it is (none / 0) (#22)
by Ga6thDem on Thu Jan 18, 2024 at 04:36:42 PM EST

enough to help him get the nomination. I mean if 1K voters show up in a state and Trump gets 500, he still gets a win. More interesting to me is whether GOP voting base has shrunk a lot or if it was the weather in Iowa or if they have checked out because they don't want any of the above. After more primaries we may have the answer.


They are saying (none / 0) (#23)
by CaptHowdy on Thu Jan 18, 2024 at 04:47:37 PM EST

if he wins NH the primary, such as it is, is over.

I think this is probably good. A majority of democrats still don't think he will be the nominee. Making him one, officially, will help focus their minds.

I understand this. I have expressed my own doubts he will be the choice. But I think this is contributing to Bidens bad poll numbers.

Making it a choice will clarify things. For some.


: I agree (none / 0) (#27)
by Ga6thDem on Fri Jan 19, 2024 at 09:28:42 AM EST

on the denial about Trump part. It's not only Democrats though. Independents also don't think Trump will be the nominee. If Haley wins NH it only delays things a bit. I haven't checked the polls myself but it seems Trump has a huge lead in SC.

Interesting (5.00 / 1) (#30)
by Ga6thDem on Fri Jan 19, 2024 at 09:36:32 AM EST

that Marge and her ilk are screeching about the pipe bomber saying it was "nothing". Leads me to believe there may be an indictment coming down the pike that they are trying to get in front of.

I am so overwhelmingly (5.00 / 1) (#49)
by Chuck0 on Thu Jan 25, 2024 at 12:25:01 PM EST

disappointed with this country. The very idea that so many Americans have rallied around this degenerate con man is disheartening.

I think it explains all the scam phone calls I get (I have two phone, one work (with PA area code), one personal (a TX area code)). I get calls all day to both numbers for Medicare plans, burial insurance, police associations and the latest is a debit card scam. Americans have proved themselves so utterly stupid and gullible that I can only imagine how money people fall for these scams. Millions have been scammed by Orange Marmalade and the other con men know it. The United States is just huge pool of marks both short and long cons.

: Polls are looking better in PA (none / 0) (#50)
by CaptHowdy on Thu Jan 25, 2024 at 01:31:19 PM EST

I think they will be looking better in other places. The campaign just started.

While I agree (none / 0) (#1)
by Ga6thDem on Wed Jan 17, 2024 at 05:32:32 AM EST

with what you are saying, so far the rest of the field has failed to take on Trump and those who have like Christie didn't go anywhere. It seems his primary opponents are waiting for the cheeseburgers to kick in or a conviction where he has to report to jail to take him out.

The republicans naku up about a third (none / 0) (#2)
by CaptHowdy on Wed Jan 17, 2024 at 09:04:53 AM EST

of Iowa voters.

Monday 51% of roughly 13% of one third of Iowa voters voted for Trump.
49% came out in the bitter cold to vote against him.

: this is where (none / 0) (#3)
by Ga6thDem on Wed Jan 17, 2024 at 09:46:30 AM EST

what happens in other states that have primaries will be interesting. NH is not really Trump friendly but a lot of them are like SC.

: Yes, a real (none / 0) (#4)
by KeysDan on Wed Jan 17, 2024 at 10:26:56 AM EST

blowout: Trump beat his competitors by 2, 256 votes.

Serving the MAGA demographic (none / 0) (#7)
by CaptHowdy on Wed Jan 17, 2024 at 01:27:22 PM EST

Kentucky Bill Would Let Cousins Have Sex
January 17, 2024 at 2:15 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment
Kentucky state Rep. Nick Wilson (R) introduced a bill intended to broaden the definition of forbidden sexual activity between relatives -- but it could actually make sex between first cousins legal, The Messenger reports.
Admitted Wilson: "I made a mistake, and I'm going to fix it.

: These people (none / 0) (#8)
by Ga6thDem on Wed Jan 17, 2024 at 01:50:36 PM EST

are in such a bubble. That's the kind of mistake he should have caught before he went to pass the bill. Or maybe he doesn't read or write the bill and has ignorant magats writing them for him.

Of course (none / 0) (#9)
by Ga6thDem on Wed Jan 17, 2024 at 01:54:25 PM EST

I'm not an attorney as ya'll know but honestly this E. Jean trial...well, I just can't believe that Alina Habba doesn't know who is supposed to be asking questions and when to sit and stand. I would have thought every attorney knew courtroom ettiquette as it seems basic to me.

Naturally Trump is acting the fool but he wants to get thrown out of court so he can play the victim and grift. Armando said Judge Kaplan should just start fining him 10k for the first incident and keep doubling it for every subsequent incident.

I know we don't quote Trump but (none / 0) (#19)
by CaptHowdy on Thu Jan 18, 2024 at 03:36:59 PM EST

This seems worthy of noting. It's today 2am

A PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES MUST HAVE FULL IMMUNITY, WITHOUT WHICH IT WOULD BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR HIM/HER TO PROPERLY FUNCTION. ANY MISTAKE, EVEN IF WELL INTENDED, WOULD BE MET WITH ALMOST CERTAIN INDICTMENT BY THE OPPOSING PARTY AT TERM END. EVEN EVENTS THAT "CROSS THE LINE" MUST FALL UNDER TOTAL IMMUNITY, OR IT WILL BE YEARS OF TRAUMA TRYING TO DETERMINE GOOD FROM BAD. THERE MUST BE CERTAINTY. EXAMPLE: YOU CAN'T STOP POLICE FROM DOING THE JOB OF STRONG & EFFECTIVE CRIME PREVENTION BECAUSE YOU WANT TO GUARD AGAINST THE OCCASIONAL "ROGUE COP" OR "BAD APPLE." SOMETIMES YOU JUST HAVE TO LIVE WITH "GREAT BUT SLIGHTLY IMPERFECT." ALL PRESIDENTS MUST HAVE COMPLETE & TOTAL PRESIDENTIAL IMMUNITY, OR THE AUTHORITY & DECISIVENESS OF A PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES WILL BE STRIPPED & GONE FOREVER. HOPEFULLY THIS WILL BE AN EASY DECISION. GOD BLESS THE SUPREME COURT!

The "God bless the supreme court" (5.00 / 1) (#20)
by CaptHowdy on Thu Jan 18, 2024 at 03:43:21 PM EST

will totally work.


Regular immunity is not enough... (5.00 / 2) (#25)
by desertswine on Thu Jan 18, 2024 at 09:31:19 PM EST

but it must be full, total, complete, and super duper.


: Bigly (5.00 / 1) (#29)
by CaptHowdy on Fri Jan 19, 2024 at 09:35:49 AM EST

Trump and "total immunity" (none / 0) (#31)
by john horse on Fri Jan 19, 2024 at 12:23:53 PM EST

"ALL PRESIDENTS MUST HAVE COMPLETE & TOTAL PRESIDENTIAL IMMUNITY"

If a President has total immunity as Trump argues, then how is he or she going to be held accountable? Where is the checks and balance to someone who is considered above the law?

And by the way, doesn't this "total immunity" also apply to Biden and any future President? Republicans might want to give this one some thought.

Trump is speaking like a dictator or king. He is both dangerous and unAmerican.

We are miles past (none / 0) (#32)
by CaptHowdy on Fri Jan 19, 2024 at 12:48:24 PM EST

consistency and rationality.

For that matter if the court agreed what stops Biden from a preemptive strike on Mara Lago


His actions here (none / 0) (#33)
by CaptHowdy on Fri Jan 19, 2024 at 12:56:57 PM EST

and in the E. Jean trial and elsewhere suggest insanity. And let's face it Trump is no stranger to insanity.
But I see method as deranged as it is.

At the trial - the money is mostly gone already. That ship has sailed. Let E Jean fight it out with all the other civil plaintiffs. He will scream and yell and stomp his feet all for his cult. The judge has his number, he wants him to toss him out. He would love that.

This immunity nonsense - everyone knows it's nonsense. Its performance for the cult.

I think Trump sees a binary choice. Either he wins, in which case he makes it all go away. Even the State stuff, don't kid yourself. Or he loses and he is righteously F*cked.

He will do anything. The weirdness will increase.


I would (none / 0) (#36)
by Ga6thDem on Fri Jan 19, 2024 at 05:55:38 PM EST

say the immunity stuff is nonsense except for his lawyer actually arguing it in court. Supposedly this guy is a good lawyer but he's ruining any reputation he may have had.


Just because his lawyers (none / 0) (#39)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Jan 20, 2024 at 07:50:27 AM EST

who don't even know how to enter evidence are arguing it in court is thin evidence against nonsense.


That's (none / 0) (#40)
by Ga6thDem on Sun Jan 21, 2024 at 07:00:43 AM EST

Habba Dabba Doo that doesn't know how to enter evidence in a court. I'm talking about the discussion between John Lauro and Judge Pan.


Right (none / 0) (#41)
by CaptHowdy on Sun Jan 21, 2024 at 07:20:52 AM EST

The one who argued he should be able to kill rivals with Seal Team 6


The truth is bad enough. No need (none / 0) (#44)
by Peter G on Sun Jan 21, 2024 at 06:56:39 PM EST

to exaggerate. He never argued that a President "should be able to kill rivals with Seal Team 6." The argument -- utterly bogus -- is that if a President were to do that, the only mechanism for imposing consequences is impeachment, never a criminal prosecution.


The absurdity (none / 0) (#47)
by KeysDan on Sun Jan 21, 2024 at 09:07:23 PM EST

called a legal argument for presidential immunity was, as I tried to understand it, that prosecution for the assassination of a political rival would first require impeachment and conviction.

However these arguments do become confusing to me when they seem to be made up of saw dust and air.


: Yes, you are right, and my comment (5.00 / 2) (#48)
by Peter G on Mon Jan 22, 2024 at 01:14:37 PM EST

was mistaken. Tr*mp's lawyers are not even making an argument for real immunity, since they admit that the Constitution expressly authorizes prosecution after impeachment and removal (Art. I, sec. 3, cl. 7). Which plainly means there can be prosecution notwithstanding a prior successful impeachment, and that this would not amount to double jeopardy. What they argue, absurdly, is that this clause means there cannot be a prosecution absent a prior successful impeachment.

The Trump Game (none / 0) (#42)
by RickyJim on Sun Jan 21, 2024 at 12:32:46 PM EST

is to delay any trial until after election day, not to make a logical case. Are there better ways for his lawyers actions to achieve the former? So far they seem to be doing fine.


Delay (none / 0) (#43)
by Ga6thDem on Sun Jan 21, 2024 at 02:12:23 PM EST

is easy. All they have to do is appeal every decision.

Likely we will have 2 trials before the election: Alvin Bragg's case in NY and the insurrection case in DC. The judge in Florida is slow walking everything.


Actually, no. Most adverse pretrial rulings (none / 0) (#45)
by Peter G on Sun Jan 21, 2024 at 07:02:48 PM EST

are not subject to appeal by the defendant in a criminal case, until and unless after conviction and sentencing. But arguably, a claim of absolute immunity is one of the exceptions. Honestly, if I were on the Special Prosecutor team I'd be arguing that the immunity ruling is not appealable at this time, but apparently their strategy is to get that argument fully and finally aired and rejected first.


: Seems (none / 0) (#46)
by Ga6thDem on Sun Jan 21, 2024 at 07:35:22 PM EST

To me anyone would want to get the immunity question out of the way. I can see Trump appealing a conviction claiming immunity.

But They Still Might Vote for Him (none / 0) (#34)
by RickyJim on Fri Jan 19, 2024 at 01:56:15 PM EST

This article lists 17 former high ranking officials of the Trump administration that are highly critical of him. Only Mark Esper and John Bolton have ruled out voting for him in the next election. I guess that if asked why, they might say something like "Biden is worse".

Could the DC Circuit decision on immunity (none / 0) (#35)
by CaptHowdy on Fri Jan 19, 2024 at 03:46:56 PM EST

come on Sat or sun?

Armando (none / 0) (#37)
by Ga6thDem on Fri Jan 19, 2024 at 05:57:59 PM EST

is having a nervous breakdown on twitter over that decision. If the supreme court takes it and doesn't make a decision until the end of the session it will move the trial even if the court issues a decision soon. The press is all about "we can't have a trial while he is running for president and after the convention". I'm like says who? As long as the case is done before voting happens I think all is good.


: I found out the decision (none / 0) (#38)
by CaptHowdy on Sat Jan 20, 2024 at 07:47:30 AM EST

can come on the weekend,
Deep breaths.