Again, I'm very suprised that no-one is making a bigger deal over how the Duke Administration tipped off the team that the Durham Police were investigating this. It's a sign that the Duke family was looking to take care of it's own.

DNA on a tissue? On a tissue under a fingernail in the trash? Or on tissue under the fingernail?

TL, what do you think the latest arrest of Mostafa say of Nifong? At what time would his unethical behavior cross the line?

Because there was a warrant for her arrest, Roberts told police she picked up the woman on the road, in a crowd of men yelling racial slurs. Police did not ask her name, and Roberts went home. A week later, Roberts' escort agency told her police wanted to talk to her about a possible rape. After she gave a statement, police arrested her for the probation violation.

If someone knows -- BTW -- Just how much DNA could be found under her fingernail if the AV had grazed her finger against the lax player who handed her the mixed drink? I don't know, I'm just asking?

Teresa, Teresa, Teresa, I have been reading for a couple of months that the two women met and entered the house together. Where did that come from?

If I knew that the police were investigating a rape and I was involved, I would have gotten rid of all her stuff, including fingernails, got the money out of there, and tossed her makeup bag in a landfill.

Reports are that the skin tissue, attached to the fake fingernail, found in the bathroom trashcan, and "from the same genetic pool" of... is consistent with one of the team captians who lives at that house. These are Matt Zash, Dan Flannery and Dave Evans.

And if the DNA tests aren't due back until Monday, who's leaking this finding?

I keep hearing defense attorneys say that Roberts changed her story after she was arrested by Nifong, but as far as to what she observed that night, has she really changed her story? She's changed her opinion as to whether or not a rape occurred, but I do that a dozen times a day. What has changed other than her opinion?

Again, I'm very suprised that no-one is making a bigger deal over how the Duke Administration tipped off the team that the Durham Police were investigating this. It's a sign that the Duke family was looking to take care of it's own.

The completeness of the DNA test isn't really the issue. Let's assume it is a match for the third player. How does it establish a rape? It's really an issue that goes to her credibility. Does it mean she was telling the truth?

Does it rule out that she got angry at them for forcefully taking the money back and later decided to allege a rape?

I don't know what others think, but I think the timing of this "leaking" is interesting. It probably implies that the 3rd player will be charged on Monday.

Defense attorneys did say that they are not sure where the Herald-Sun got its information. They do know that Nifong has not gotten the DNA report back because he has to hand over the results to them as soon as he gets them.

Posted by Kalidoggie May 10, 2006 01:03 PM

Going back to the last thread.....

Pat, excellent post. Nifong has bothered me the most about this case.

In addition to your statements, either the Durham Sun or N&O stated that Nifong contacted them and insisted that they write the story about the DNA tests, which we all know started the media storm.

Another is that The N&O didn't confect this story. The paper was the first to report that DNA tests had been ordered, but Nifong instigated that action. Much of the coverage since has been about developments in the case -- rallies and protests by residents, Nifong's very public insistence that a crime occurred, the players' lawyers' equally vehement claims of innocence, Duke's actions against the team and coach. In other words, reporting the news.

It is utterly unreasonable for the Durham PD to think or expect Duke to maintain some kind of secrecy on PD's behalf. No one has complained that they were "tipped off" and spoiled the investigation. The Durham PD has not lodged that complaint, just you.

How do you know that Duke didn't say to the lax team "the Durham PD wants talk to you boys about the party and the strippers." You don't!

Interestingly, at the UC schools, the campus police are state cops with the highest level of jurisdiction. At the state schools, the students know their conduct is held to a higher standard for social responsibility.

I think this case bothers me a lot not because the boys are white and privilege and the AV is a black stripper, but really that it's so hard to determine whether the prosecution is seeking for the truth or just winning and proving himself.

Yes, that was the article. The opperative sentence could be written much clearer. As the focus of the article was about reporting, I read it to mean that Nifong "instigated" the reporting of the DNA, but on a second read I can see that it could mean that Nifong instigated the DNA tests that resulted in the N&O reporting it....I assume this is what you would retort.

Thanks for looking it up. I tried but could find it.

imho, if there was lemon-zest quantity skin tissue under the nail, wouldn't the state lab have been able to do the DNA match without sending it to the private lab? Or is skin tissue in itself more difficult to test?

I give up. No one seems to remember where the source of the story of them both initially entering the house at the same time.

I'll bet that the reason for complicated testing was a small sample, the sort that people often get by gently raking someone's neck with fingernails during lap dances, slow dances, or even scuffles (which no one has ruled out).

The initial test results were of the fluid samples taken from the AV. The initial test results were of the fluid samples taken from the AV.

Oops, should have read: "SCI"

Oops, should have read: "SCI" I think it's SBI.

perhaps lucky player X was the guy who tried to catch the AV when she stumbled and got his arm scratched

I didnt add the probability of her nail meeting his skin tissue in the trash can.

What I found strange was that the manual emphatically instructed the nurse to NOT (emphasis theirs) scrape under the nails for samples.

Read again carefully. The odds is still 1/705 regardless how that DNA came on her nails.

Whatever the SBI tested (fluids?) must have had something in it, and it wasn't DNA from the 46. Was it someone else's DNA, or was there really no foreign body DNA on this woman's body, which is why the discarded fingernail is today's headline.

My assumption would be that if player x was actually scratched by the defendant, as Larry suggested, the chance that that the "imperfect" match would exclude every player but him would start to approach 1, and, the chance that the accuser could pick him randomly out of the lineup as one of her three suspects would approach 3/46...

Was there an actual scientific report released detailing what CBI did not find (i.e. no sperm) or were the results of the CBI report filtered to the press. Foreign sperm would be very bad for this case, and Nifong would do well to publicly suppress this for now, though if the CBI scientific report is available through a link I'd stand corrected.

The results, the lawyers said, show that investigators collected no genetic material of any kind from the woman. "There was no DNA found in or on her that would indicate that she recently had any sex," Cheshire said.

I wonder if anyone has looked at 90%'s arm?

An exotic dancer who says three Duke lacrosse players raped her may have identified two of them based on photographs that show scratches on their bodies, a defense attorney said Wednesday.

The attorney said that when 46 members of the lacrosse team submitted court-ordered DNA samples last month, they were also photographed without their shirts.

*- Editor's Note: A previous version of this article mistakenly cited defense attorney Bill Cotter as the source of information concerning how a woman may have identified the two men in this story. Cotter, however, was not the source of the information obtained by WRAL.

Reviewing more carefully my calculation is good only if people claims his DNA meet her fingernails by chance, like their earlier suggestion nails and tissue came together in the trashcan.

You totally confused me, That calculation in my post shows that even that "imperfect" DNA match is confidently pointing to one player. You are also agreeing with that. How his DNA came under her nail is totally different question.

The probability that this "imperfect" match excluded every player but him is: 1/46

I recall a story coming out just after the quote by the defense attorney that the pictures used in the lineup were not the ones taken without their shirts. Does anyone have the articles?

But defense attorneys said the third player accused lived at the house and it is no surprise that trace amounts of his DNA could be found inside his own trashcan. They also said they don't believe the type of fingernails that were found -- the kind that are applied with an adhesive strip -- actually ripped off during an attack. They don't believe the fingernails were ever applied and they say they have pictures to prove it.

What is the probability player X is that guy that partially match is 1/46 assuming he is just unlucky.

But defense attorneys said the third player accused lived at the house and it is no surprise that trace amounts of his DNA could be found inside his own trashcan. They also said they don't believe the type of fingernails that were found -- the kind that are applied with an adhesive strip -- actually ripped off during an attack. They don't believe the fingernails were ever applied and they say they have pictures to prove it.

The defense attorneys say the nails were never applied. I guess it should be easy to tell if they are used or new.

They don't believe the fingernails were ever applied and they say they have pictures to prove it.

One of the reasons the Cheshire may currently be fairly well trapped into making these "chance" arguments regarding how the dna got where it did is that the police have already interviewed his client for eight hours, locking him into a particular story that perhaps did not include any scratching or lap dancing with the accuser.

It is common practice for police to run the names of people involved in a case because they don't want any surprises when the case goes to court, police spokeswoman Kammie Michael said Thursday.

Thomas said that if a lacrosse player had merely picked up the artificial fingernail from the floor and thrown it into a trashcan, some of his DNA would have become attached to the nail.

Attorney Joe Cheshire, who represents one of the team's captains, said at a news conference then that the DNA report indicated authorities took samples from the accuser's body, including under her fingernails, and from her possessions, such as her cellphone and clothes.

"They swabbed about every place they could possibly swab from her in which there could be any DNA," Cheshire said.

In other words, Mister 90%'s scratches could have been consistent with participating with a rape or negotiating a fee refund with a stripper for an abbreviated performance

David Evans - atty Bill Cheshire

Indeed, on March 16, three players resident at 610 N. Buchanan agreed to go to the Durham police station and volunteered to submit to DNA testing and take a lie detector test. They are said to have given, among the three of them, mor than 25 hours of testimony.

Nifong said Wednesday that the three men who rented the house where the alleged rape happened -- Matthew Zash, Dan Flannery and David Evands -- did speak to police at great length after the party, but that since then most have gotten lawyers and are no longer talking.

They compared 46 players DNA with the unknown DNA under her nail. It mismatched 45 players, but partially matched one player.

Would someone please post a link to a report that says it was a mismatch for all but one player? I only remember reading that it was "consistent with" the DNA of the guy the AV ID'ed with 90% certainty. The report I saw didn't say that it was a mismatch for all the rest of them.

At the same time, scientists ruled out a possible match with any of the other 45 students, according to the sources.

It sounds like Ryan McFayden knew what happened, otherwise why so angry. Similarly the guys he emailed, they may have been pissed off also. Perhaps he should be subpoenaed and given limited immunity, but I bet he has left the jurisdiction.

"tommrow night, after tonights show ive decided to have some strippers over to edens2c [his dorm]. all are welcome.. however there will be no nudity I plan on killing the b- - ches as the[y] walk in and proceeding to cut their skin off while c----ing in my duke issue spandex."

Can you rape someone anally and vaginally, as the AV alleged that Finnerty did to her, without leaving a telltale trace of *anything* --lubricant, epithelial cells, seminal fluid, latex?

Paul Ware was convicted on a 100% ID of a hair in the victim's throat. In this case there is DNA which reports say is "consistant with" the victim found under a false fingernail. Big difference here.

chew, you said, "Maybe just over the money, but this was still robbery." If she really only danced for a few minutes and they took their (hour's worth) payment back, would you consider that robbery? I would feel comfortable taking back money from someone who came to my home and didn't perform a satisfactory job. For me that would be something boring, e.g. a housepainter, but isn't the principle the same? OTOH the painter wouldn't get paid until the work was finished. I gather it's different with stripping.

I have just posted one example.

I would feel comfortable taking back money from someone who came to my home and didn't perform a satisfactory job.

Can you rape someone anally and vaginally, as the AV alleged that Finnerty did to her, without leaving a telltale trace of *anything* --lubricant, epithelial cells, seminal fluid, latex?

Paul Ware was convicted on a 100% ID of a hair in the victim's throat. In this case there is DNA which reports say is "consistant with" the victim found under a false fingernail. Big difference here.

The accuser is claiming they took the money out of her purse.

If she left her cell phone, make up bag, fingernails, shoes, etc. then there is no "intent to permently deprive", the required mens rea/intent for robbery, hence no robbery. Even if you could somehow get past this barrier, you would still have petty larcency because of the value of the goods. Though, I guess if it were "aggravated', then they could bump it up to robbery.

I often mused at Kim's comment about the players having no real manhood. I bet Kim would not have said that if she knew or believed that there was a rape.

I often mused at Kim's comment about the players having no real manhood. I bet Kim would not have said that if she knew or believed that there was a rape.

Reliable source involved in the case says she was "spending time" with one of the players. If true, this is another possible credibility issue for the second dancer, and it almost certainly will come in as we're not talking an unrelated case or time.

No one that knows him has questioned his ethics. For having worked in the DAs office for 27 years, he doesn't seem to have made many enemies.

Well, oftentimes power and publicity corrupt one's character. You probably never know a person's full character and weaknesses until they are in power.

I think many people will agree with me that Nifong has double standards here treating his own witness or the defense's witness. Nifong said that they found out the cabbie's record through a regular check of all witness's background (today's News and Observer article). Did he check the AV's, too? If he had, he would have found out the AV's previous rape report at Creedmore earlier. Obviously Nifong did not check his witness as comprehensively as he did with the defense's witness.

Don't tell me that he is fair-minded and ethical in handling this case. He hasn't handled any criminal cases even after he was promoted to his current office. From the very beginning he is clearly politically motivated to insist on taking this case himself, or else he could let anyone in his office do it as he always did since holding his office prior to this case.

It seems to me that what everyone that knows him agree that he likes to win. But who wouldn't in this business?

I often mused at Kim's comment about the players having no real manhood. I bet Kim would not have said that if she knew or believed that there was a rape.

His assistance was requested due to the unusual circumstance of obtaining the court ordered cooperation of 43 potential witnesses to a reported violent sexual assault.

The dancers were paid up front here. At that point it became her money. Taking back the property of another by force or intimidation, with the intent to deprive them of it permanently, is common law robbery and is a class G felony in NC.

...consistent with the victim claiming $400.00 cash in all twenty dollar bills was taken from her purse immediately after the rape.

Maybe just over the money, but this was still robbery. (but if so why the vaginal and anal bruising)

...consistent with the victim claiming $400.00 cash in all twenty dollar bills was taken from her purse immediately after the rape. Kinda a reverse tip?

May 12, 2006 11:06 AM wunhenry posted: Paul Ware was convicted on a 100% ID of a hair in the victim's throat. In this case there is DNA which reports say is "consistant with" the victim found under a false fingernail. Big difference here.

Source?

Kali, Are you forgetting I'm married to him?

Was his assistance requested? OK. I don't know that for a fact. It is an unusal request and would much more likely be granted by a judge if the DA himself was seeking the order. I assumed the attorney in charge asked for his assistance.

Paul Ware was convicted on a 100% ID of a hair in the victim's throat. In this case there is DNA which reports say is "consistant with" the victim found under a false fingernail. Big difference here.

I didn't post that comment.

His assistance was requested due to the unusual circumstance of obtaining the court ordered cooperation of 43 potential witnesses to a reported violent sexual assault.

I have had it happen (recently 4 back to back tequila shots on my B-day put me over the top in about 15 minutes and I'm 6'1", 195 lbs).

Prostitutes don't generally see their johns with much respect,

Is that a personal threat?

Why would a guy at the party admit he got a blowjob from Roberts? First off, it's the perfect alibi. "I wasn't screwing the AV, the other stripper was sucking me off." Secondly, no matter what Roberts may have shouted back at the men there, there's no dishonor in getting a blowjob.

Nifong said that they found out the cabbie's record through a regular check of all witness's background (today's News and Observer article). Did he check the AV's, too? If he had, he would have found out the AV's previous rape report at Creedmore earlier. Obviously Nifong did not check his witness as comprehensively as he did with the defense's witness.

I would point out how supposedly angry she was at racist, frightening behavior, but yet she comes back in for a "transaction,"

It's general believability and likability that the jury will be looking at, for her and every single witness. Going from an exotic dancer to a prostitute affects that, like it or not.

If a DA asked me to indict someone for robbery merely for taking back part of a $400 advance payment for 2 hours of dancing from a stripper who quit without good cause 3 minutes after taking the money, I'd spit in his eye.

Why would a guy at the party admit he got a blowjob from Roberts? First off, it's the perfect alibi. "I wasn't screwing the AV, the other stripper was sucking me off." Secondly, no matter what Roberts may have shouted back at the men there, there's no dishonor in getting a blowjob.

Source is very, very involved.

Lora, the whole "skin sample DNA under the fake fingernail" issue has a strong possibility of being completely irrelevant, should the defense prove it's apparent claim that the fingernail had never been attached to her finger.

Hicht, your 1/705 calculation above is misleading. You are ignoring the fact that there were 46 players at risk. So while there is a 1/705 chance that a particular player would be picked out twice, the chance that one of the 46 players would be picked out twice is 46 times as large or 1/15. This is the appropriate probability to use in assessing the likelihood of this happening by chance.

If she scratched one of twenty or so guys lemon-zest style (I really love that image, imho :)), she would also be more likely to remember his face for the photo id, no matter what the circumstances of the scratch.

ABRAMS: Well look, I can tell you that the defense's theory--the defense claims that the woman and her friend were in the bathroom and that presumably she was putting on fingernail polish. They don't say anyone saw this, but based on the fact that there were these fingernails they say in the garbage in the bathroom that that's how it happened, was that she may have been putting them on, et cetera, or in the bathroom. Could that be--

I mean, again could that be an explanation for transfer...

KOBILINSKY: Well Dan...

ABRAMS: ... or is that a long shot?

KOBILINSKY: ... no doubt--it's a long shot, but no doubt the defense attorney can argue secondary transfer, that that DNA got onto the fingernails and that's what you are measuring. It's a long shot, though. You'd have to convince a jury of the probability of that happening.

ABRAMS: Moses Schanfield, what do you make of that? Do you agree?

SCHANFIELD: Well, I think the question is if, in fact, there is tissue and the DNA was extracted from tissue, it's much less likely. When we're talking about low copy number from fingerprints and casual transfers, you are talking about very small amounts of DNA.

Would it have wound up where it did on the fingernails? Well, without knowing where it came from on the fingernails, that's difficult to answer. So, certainly the defense can argue that it's casual transfer or passive transfer. I think the physical evidence and the location will tell us a lot more about it.

Hicht, your 1/705 calculation above is misleading. You are ignoring the fact that there were 46 players at risk. So while there is a 1/705 chance that a particular player would be picked out twice, the chance that one of the 46 players would be picked out twice is 46 times as large or 1/15. This is the appropriate probability to use in assessing the likelihood of this happening by chance.

The 3/46 figure is misleading. First off, the accuser seems to have id'd four people. But two of these people weren't id'd as scratchers. Rather, they were excluded as scratchers. So 1/15 should go back up to 1/30, no?

Ah, Kali, doggie, you've put on a few. I can see from an old roster you were 185 lbs. in college. Nice thing about the internet, old friends can't see how much you've let yourself go.

A dual Economics/Mathematics degree.

but just slipped it back out of her purse while she was in the bathroom w/ the makeup bag?

They don't say anyone saw this...

Hicht, you seemed to be saying that if the fingernail DNA belonged to the same guy that she identified out of the lineup, then the only explanation for his innocence would be that he was extremely "unlucky."

Too bad Duke removed all the rosters from the web site back in March. Keep guessing.

One of the parents laughs and jokes about how funny it would be to stick a broom up the clown's butt.

Something doesn't seem quite right to me...if she purposly scratched someone in self-defense as he was violently attacking her, wouldn't you expect her to remember him, better than 90%?

But the big elephant in the house is the team members motivation to lie for each other, or to shade the truth, because of their team solidarity. Next to that, Kim's motivation to lie about the what she knows about the alleged rape is pretty minor.

the scratched person was the strangler

victim: He said, um, he was going to stick broomsticks up your asses.

IMHO said: "Unless it's the source of the limp d*ck taunt."