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Election Predictions and Coverage

Election predictions abound. We've read several. These are the ones we think might be closest to the actual results. First up is Jason Rylander on the House and Senate races.

Senate -- Democrats 51-48-1
House -- Republicans 219-215-1

Here is Jason's reasoning:

"As for the Senate, here's how I see it coming out. The Democrats will pick up Arkansas and New Hampshire, while maintaining seats in Georgia, South Dakota, Iowa, New Jersey, and Louisiana. The GOP will pick up Missouri, while maintaining South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas. That would give the Dems a one seat pick-up, but there's more: The two wild card races are Minnesota and Colorado. I really think these two are too close to call. Odds are good these races will split, but the question is how. Although this may buck the conventional wisdom, I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that Minnesota will go GOP and Colorado will go to the Democrats."

Second is Matt Yglesias: "Democrats pick up New Hampshire, Colorado, and Arkansas in the Senate but lose Missouri, going up 52-47-1. When Chafee sees that the GOP's not getting it's majority back he switches, either to the Democrats or, like Jeffords, becomes an "independent." (Posted in Daily Kos' comment section to this post.

Next is Daily Kos, who lists his predictions a little further down in the comments section of the same post:

Senate: Total: 54D-45R-1I, +4D

Arkansas: Pryor (+D)
Colorado: Strickland (+D)
Georgia: Cleland
Iowa: Harkin
Minnesota: Mondale
Missouri: Talent (+R)
New Hampshire: Shaheen (+D)
New Jersey: Lautenberg
North Carolina: Bowles (+D)
South Carolina: Graham
South Dakota: Johnson
Tennessee: Alexander
Texas: Kirk (+D)

Governor Total: 32D-18R, +11D

Alabama: Riley (+R)
Alaska: Ulmer
Arizona: Napolitano (+D)
Arkansas: Fisher (+D)
California: Davis
Florida: Bush
Hawaii: Hirono
Illinois: Blagojevich (+D)
Iowa: Vilseck
Kansas: Sebelius (+D)
Maine: Baldacci (+D)
Maryland: Townsend
Massachusetts: O'Brien (+D)
Michigan: Granholm (+D)
Minnesota: Moe (+D)
New Hampshire: Benson (+R)
New Mexico: Richardson (+D)
Oklahoma: Largent
Oregon: Kulongoski
Penn: Rendell (+D)
Rhode Island: York (+D)
South Carolina: Sanford (+R)
Tennessee: Bredesen (+D)
Texas: Perry
Vermont: Racine
Wisconsin: Doyle (+D)
Wyoming: Freudenthal (+D)

As for MyDD, who ran a contest on election results, his predictions, as well as those of the contest entrants, are here:

218-216-1 DEM 53-46-1 DEM 29-21-0 DEM

His reasons are here, here and here.

For live blogger coverage of the elections, we highly recommend Atrios/Eschaton and Daily Kos who both report they will be on duty. If MyDD or Political Wire are online, we recommend them too.

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