I think Republican commentators, on the other hand, are probably going to push very hard. BuzzFlash.com, a very cheeky liberal Web site, wrote this week that when all the conservative commentators came out in common saying that Lott should quit, you could see that Karl Rove's knife was already in his back. I'm not sure that's true, but that's certainly a perception out there in the Republican Party, I think, as well.

....Mr. DIONNE: And I think what drove this story were a lot of other news stories about what he had done in the past. I mean, there were stories about how his voting record on civil rights issues in recent years was actually more conservative than Strom Thurmond's, whether you're talking about the King holiday or the Voting Rights Act; he made a statement very much like this back in 1980. So there was a sense that putting aside--the issue here is not whether Trent Lott is a racist. I don't think Trent Lott is a racist. The issue is what are his real feelings about civil rights and the advances in civil rights. And there's a lot in the record that suggests that he was very uncomfortable.

NORRIS: Is the tone here--is that important whether or not he actually was able to atone not just with the right words but sort of in the--on a subliminal text, because the Republicans are trying very hard to reach out beyond their base? And is it going to be very difficult for them to do that if he is part of the public face of the Republican Party?

Mr. KRISTOL: Look, I think most Republicans do not relish the idea of a lot of tough political fights, a Supreme Court nomination perhaps this summer, in which issues of civil rights are going to be front and center and which many conservatives and Republicans want to honestly argue that you can be against racial preferences, for example, or you can be for a strict construction of the Constitution without being tarred with Southern segregationism or racial insensitivity. You don't want Trent Lott as the Senate Republican leader in those circumstances. And I really don't think George W. Bush wants Trent Lott as the Republican leader in those circumstances. And that's why I think he'll go.

SIEGEL: Bill Kristol....Did he put this one to rest?

Mr. KRISTOL: I doubt it. I mean, I take him at his word that he's contrite, and I don't personally believe that he's a bigoted man. And I feel sorry for him, frankly. But having said all that, he hasn't explained why he is the best of the 51 Republican senators to serve as the Republican leader for the next two years. And I doubt that he's convinced his colleagues, and I doubt, frankly, that he's convinced the White House that he's the man they want as Republican leader for the next two years.

SIEGEL: When you say you doubt that he's convinced his colleagues, would you expect that, in part, because of this episode he'll be challenged for the leadership and might not win?

Mr. KRISTOL: Well, he's been elected incoming leader, majority leader already, so it would require someone to step forward and challenge him. There's not a routine election coming up in the next month or two.

I do think--no one wants to go first, you know. And it will be interesting so see whether one of his colleagues steps up and says, 'Either I challenge Senator Lott,' or more likely, 'I'm not challenging Senator Lott. I have no personal ambitions. But I think Senator Lott should step down.' And I guess I do expect that to happen over the next few days.

SIEGEL: E.J. Dionne, what do you think?

Mr. DIONNE: Well, I agree with Bill that he's in trouble. And essentially the reason I think that is all day today the private conversations I had with Democrats were Democrats saying, 'Gee, it would be good for Democrats if Trent Lott could hang around for a while,' and most Republicans know that. Most Republicans I talked to said, 'Gee, wouldn't somebody like Senator Bill Frist make a great Republican leader?'

And so I think what you have is, first, a group of conservatives--and this story in large part was driven by conservatives who are critical of Lott, including Bill Kristol over here...

Mr. DIONNE: ...yeah--where they said, 'Look, this is unacceptable.' And so I don't think he's reassured any of them, certainly not the ones sitting in this studio.

Secondly, as a political matter, I think a lot of Republicans say, 'We really don't want to carry this baggage. Will the Democrats be able to turn Trent Lott into a new version of Newt Gingrich?' Democrats certainly think that, and I think Republicans are very reluctant to face that for two years.

SIEGEL: Well, what do you think of his quoting Paul Simon, the former senator from Illinois, or Jim Jeffords, saying, you know, 'I understand what you were saying; I understand it was a light-hearted remark'?

Mr. DIONNE: One of the reasons I think this story only built gradually is that senators tend to be very senatorial, and that means they tend to be very chummy and clubby and they're actually friends inside this club. And so somebody like Jeffords' first instinct--and I just pick him out--or Senator Simon would be, 'Well, gee, there's this colleague under fire. I know him personally. He can't possibly be a racist.' And so I think that's the first instinct of senators, and that's why the energy for this story came from outside the Senate.

Mr. KRISTOL: No, I think that's true. What they're testifying to is personal decency. And it doesn't really answer the question: Should he be the majority leader of the Senate? Should he be the Republican leader of the Republican Caucus for the next two years? And that, I think, is the problem. If Trent Lott needs testimonials that he's not a personally bigoted, mean-spirited man, he's careless in what he says and maybe has absorbed certain historical understanding that most of us don't share, but no one wants to pillory him. The question again is: Should he be Republican leader for the Senate for the next two years?

And I'm struck talking to Republicans at how few of them really look forward to that prospect with great relish. E.J. mentioned Newt Gingrich. Newt Gingrich stepped down after the '98 elections, but only after he was challenged by Bob Livingston, as we now recall. And I think the interesting question is: Does another Republican senator have the nerve to stand up and challenge Senator Lott?

SIEGEL: Well, the Republican we heard from yesterday, President Bush, seemed to be saying Senator Lott should do exactly what he's gone to Pascagoula and done--Senator Lott should do that--but he didn't suggest that he should cease being the leader of the Republicans in the Senate.

Mr. KRISTOL: He didn't, though he was pretty tough on Senator Lott. He didn't express confidence in Lott. He had Ari Fleischer, his spokesman, say, well, he doesn't think he should step down. But it was striking that President Bush, who could be quite generous and say, 'I know this man--he has a good heart; he has a good soul,' he didn't say that about Senator Lott. He sort of left him out there to fend for himself.

Now to be fair to the president, Republican senators, Democratic senators, too, don't like the idea of the president selecting their leader for them. So I do think whatever private conversations Karl Rove is having with Republican senators like Bill Frist and Mitch McConnell and others, it's going to take a Republican senator stepping forward. The White House isn't going to step forward and say, 'Senator Lott, you must go.' But I think one person to watch is Bill Frist from Tennessee who's close to the White House, or Mitch McConnell who's the incoming number-two man in the Senate. Both of them would be obvious candidates, along with Don Nickles to become leader if Lott is forced out.

Mr. DIONNE: Well, I think in a funny way Senator Lott today underscored his problem. Because if he had made a statement of this sort immediately--if he had said, 'Whoops, I really did make a mistake' and had been this apologetic--he must have used the word 'apology' about five or six times--he might have put this to bed because it would have been a clear indication that he understood what he had done wrong. But he went day after day with very, very mild statements. He referred to the 'discarded' policies of the past. Well, you discard things you like as well as things you don't like. Well, there was none of the strength of this. And I think oddly if he'd done this right away he might have helped himself; now he just underscored his problem.

Mr. KRISTOL: I was very struck by what Lott said today: 'I'm not going to resign.' I'm told that his staff told the White House yesterday, 'If Senator Lott steps down as majority leader, as Republican leader, he will also step down from the Senate.' That was resign...

SIEGEL: Leaving a vacancy that the Democratic governor will fill.

Mr. KRISTOL: ...leaving a vacancy that the Democratic governor of Mississippi will fill. So there's a lot of hardball going on behind the scenes. And Senator Lott is telling the White House, 'If you privately pressure me to step down, you're going to be dealing with a 50-50 Senate, not a 51-49 Senate.'

But it was striking to me today that Lott obscured the distinction between stepping down as majority leader and stepping down as senator.