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Poll: Gephardt Overtakes Dean in Iowa

The Des Moines Register reports today that Gephardt has overtaken Dean in the latest poll of the Iowa primary. There's a lot of analysis in the article, which runs some 1600 words.

Gephardt's lead may or may not be significant:

However, Gephardt's 7-percentage-point lead over Dean in the Iowa Poll appears a little wobbly. More of Dean's supporters say their minds are made up and they are certain of their participation in the Democratic caucuses, which launch the presidential nominating season for the nation.

The Iowa Poll, taken last week, shows Gephardt is the first choice of 27 percent of Iowans who say they definitely or probably will attend the precinct caucuses. Dean is the favorite of 20 percent. That's a gain of 6 percentage points for Gephardt and a 3-point drop for Dean since late July, when the last Iowa Poll on the race was taken.

U.S. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts remains in third place with 15 percent, a gain of 1 percentage point from July. The poll has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

[Link via Conclusive Evidence.]

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