Writing in the San Francisco Chronicle, John Arguilla, a professor of defense analysis at the United States Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, makes the case that Osama bin Laden can determinethe outcome of the 2004 election.

It's been mentioned by a few, including us, that if Bush pulls Osama out of a hat shortly before election day, it could be a problem for the Dems. Arguilla looks at it from the other side -- what if there's another big attack before election day? Using several examples from Abe Lincoln to LBJ, Arguilla says:

If, by the November election, the al Qaeda mastermind is able to mount another large terrorist attack inside the United States, bin Laden will show that Iraq has been a fatal distraction from the more pressing business of ripping apart his network. And George Bush will lose his job. Such are the electoral fortunes of war.

...The main point is, if bin Laden has the capability to launch an attack on America this year, he will. It must be an irresistible temptation to know that, from his remote cave, he could possibly exert a decisive influence on the political succession in the United States.