The Government gave its initial closing argument in the Martha Stewart trial today. They painted her as a liar. The defense lawyers for her co-defendant, stockbroker Peter Bacnovic, began their closing today, calling the Government's case one without foundation, built on a house of cards.

We think the strongest charge against Martha is the one that she made false statements to investigators when she said she didn't recall being told that Waksal was dumping his stock shares. We don't think the defense was successful in destroying Douglas Fanueil's credibility. But, in the end, we don't think the Government's case against Martha is strong enough--we think at least one juror will refuse to convict her.

The prosecution isn't done though. They get the last word--a second closing argument, after the defense lawyers have finished. The trial will end with their last words, and then jury instructions. Hopefully, Robert Morvillo will anticipate what the Government intends to say in its rebuttal closing and debunk it in his closing. If we had to guess what the prosecution will save for its rebuttal, we'd say it will stress to the jury that the case against Martha isn't small potatoes, it's an important one--and then do a little flag waving.