With the presidential race so close, the outcome maybe determined by unforseen events beyond either candidate's control. Here's what might help Bush:

• finding Osama
• dropping gas prices
• replacing Dick Cheney as Veep candidate

Incumbants look for an October surprise. But it doesn't always help. Here are some that failed:

• Gerald Ford's pardon of Richard Nixon and the faltering economy
• Carter's inability to solve the Iran hostage crisis
• G. Bush Sr.'s failure to assess the impact of the slow economy on the average American which was not reflected in the numbers (whatever that means.)

As to Bush and Kerry:

"The president and the Oval Office have the chance to set the terms of the debate every day. Kerry can be bumped out of the news almost every day. That's always a challenge in running against an incumbent president," said GOP consultant Scott Reed, who managed Republican Bob Dole's losing effort in 1996 against President Clinton. "The downside for the incumbent president is the big unknown in Iraq, and it will continue to be right up to Election Day," Reed said.

So the first story will always be about Bush. What if it's always negative? Won't that help Kerry? Who better to bring out the negative about Bush every day than liberal bloggers? Let's get to work.