At Bush's height in the polls, he can only muster 231 electoral votes. Kerry takes the prize with 301 of his own.

Check out the WSJ map (free).

The latest Zogby Interactive poll still shows Mr. Kerry well ahead, leading in 12 of the 16 battlegrounds in Zogby's twice-a-month polls....Here's how the numbers could play out on Election Day. [mathematical calculations explained].... Mr. Kerry's 12 states control a total of 135 votes, while Mr. Bush's four have 42. If you add up the numbers, you find that Mr. Kerry would win the Electoral College 307-231.

Those who protest we would complain if there's no terror warning and there's an attack may be right, but they are missing the point. This Administration has lost its credibility in the terror war. Terror threat alerts are welcome, if they are accompanied by supporting facts to the American people--something this Administration has failed to do so far. Issuing a threat alert based on internet chatter and stale information from detained suspects is not sufficient.