Mark Green, in conjunction with Air America is sponsoring a contest: What will be Bush's October Surprise?

The goal is to anticipate particular 'surprises' in the hope, however small, that Bushies may shy away from what's widely anticipated because it reeks of a political ploy. Is this contest cynical? No, just realistic. A governing elite which seems to embody Mark Twain's axiom that "a lie gets halfway around the world before truth puts on her boots" should be presumed capable of saying or doing almost anything to hold onto power."

We will catalog the responses and post the results on our site -- and periodically go on Air America and other networks and stations to give progress reports. Further, we will award the winning entry (or entries) with a free book and a chance to be a guest on a Air America broadcast.

Mark Green isco-author, with Eric Alterman,of The Book on Bush: How George W. (Mis)leads America. He was New York City's elected public advocate (1994-2002) and Democratic candidate for mayor in 2001. He is the president of the New Democracy Project .

So what do you think? Will Osama miraculously appear in chains? Will he be found dead?