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The Fragile Truce Begins

By Jeralyn, Section Foreign Affairs
Posted on Mon Aug 14, 2006 at 05:24:01 AM EST
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The fragile truce between Israel and Lebanon has begun.

Israeli still has thousands of troops deep inside southern Lebanon after expanding its ground offensive throughout the weekend. However, some Israeli forces did start withdrawing as the ceasefire came into effect.

....Hezbollah's leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, vowed over the weekend that his fighters would respect the ceasefire but would resist any continued Israeli presence in Lebanon after the deal came into force, raising fears of further clashes.

How likely is the truce to suceed?

Overall the language from both sides suggests nervous times ahead, with both sides on tenterhooks, ready to pounce on anything they see as a ceasefire violation, says the BBC's Rob Norris in Jerusalem.

....Mark Malloch Brown, the UN's Deputy Secretary General, told the BBC it might take a month before a joint UN-Lebanese force was fully in place.

I'm not too optimistic.

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    The Fragile Truce Begins | 35 comments (35 topical)
    Re: The Fragile Truce Begins (none / 0) (#1)
    by soccerdad on Mon Aug 14, 2006 at 03:24:23 AM EST
    Gideon Levy with some hopeful words
    However, if we internalize the concept whereby what does not work by force will not work with more force, this war could bring us to the negotiating table. Seared by failure, maybe the IDF will be less enthusiastic to rush into battle. It is possible the political echelon will now understand that the response to the dangers facing Israel is not to be found in using more and more force; that the real response to the legitimate and just demands of the Palestinians is not another dozen Operation Defensive Shields, but in respecting their rights; that the real response to the Syrian threat is returning the Golan to its rightful owners, without delay; and that the response to the Iranian danger is dulling the hatred toward us in the Arab and Muslim world.
    Re: The Fragile Truce Begins (none / 0) (#2)
    by Talkleft Visitor on Mon Aug 14, 2006 at 07:56:33 AM EST
    Soccerdad, Because the war between the Arabs and Israel started before the taking of the West Bank, Gaza, and Golan Heights, why would you honestly think that that's all that would be needed to stop the fighting? It takes leaders like Saddat to get this to stop. Clinton tried his damnest to get Arafat to take the deal which would have given the Palestians much of what they wanted and he backed off and the intifada began anew. When will you understand that this isn't about occupation and borders and water rights, etc...It's about wanting to coexist. Ask yourself this question: wasn't the West Bank not controlled by Israel for the first 20 years of Israel's existence and yet there was no Palestine, but an increased willingness to obliterate Israel? Why? Since you're a soccerdad wasn't it great to see the Israeli National Soccer team compete with both Arabs and Jews together? Amazing what can be done when the hate stops.

    Re: The Fragile Truce Begins (none / 0) (#3)
    by Gabriel Malor on Mon Aug 14, 2006 at 08:17:11 AM EST
    The cease-fire always was a pipedream, a type of wishful thinking by interfering parties who have no real stake in the outcome. The latest:
    Israeli soldiers killed six Hezbollah fighters in three skirmishes in Lebanon after the U.N.-imposed cease-fire took effect Monday, the army said. The clashes came as Lebanese civilians defied an Israeli travel ban and streamed back to their homes in war-ravaged areas.
    soccerdad, It was noted recently that if the Arab nations and their terrorist proxies set down their weapons and gave up their ambitions to destroy Israel, there would be peace in the Middle East. On the other hand, if the Israelis disbanded the IDF and gave up their determination to protect themselves, there would be a second holocaust as the Arab nations and their terrorist proxies gleefully pushed the Israelis into the sea.

    Re: The Fragile Truce Begins (none / 0) (#4)
    by soccerdad on Mon Aug 14, 2006 at 09:10:57 AM EST
    To continually push the idea that this is all the Arab's fault is idiotic and not supported by most analysts (neocons excepted). Most arabs do not want Israel destroyed much like most Israelis dont want all Arabs destroyed. There are extremists on both sides. However, to think there is any chance of peace without addressing the Palestinian issue in an equitable and fair way is beyond stupid. If there were to be such a settlment there will be extremists on both sides who would be unhappy. However, since most people on both sides would be happy since they wouldn't be getting bombed, living in squalor etc the political power of the extremists on both sides would be minimized and any actions by them could be dealt with. It takes courage and a commitment to live together. Today there is no one of courage on either side. It cannot be unilateral it must be multilateral. The Israeil's unilateral approach and continued oppression of Palestinians preclude a peace. Only the US has the power to force the Israelis back to the negotiating table whereas other Arab countries could pressure the Palestinians. It has to be done in concert and must start from a basic commitment to peace by both sides. US policy since being taken over by the neocons precludes peace. and BTW the argument that Arafat got everything he wanted and turned it down is another urban legend. To suggest that most arabs dont want peace is racist, unsupported by facts and a way of promoting the status quo, i.e. continued oppression of the Palestinians and occupation of lands seized in 1967. They dont want peace under the foot of oppression, which is the way any group would react.

    Re: The Fragile Truce Begins (none / 0) (#5)
    by Edger on Mon Aug 14, 2006 at 09:43:27 AM EST
    Soccerdad: It takes courage and a commitment to live together. Today there is no one of courage on either side. It cannot be unilateral it must be multilateral. The Israeil's unilateral approach and continued oppression of Palestinians preclude a peace.... The conflict betewen Israel and Hizbollah is in many ways a microcosm of the wiser conflict beteen America and radical Islam, which does not represent Islam generally any more than the christian right fundamentalists represent the thinking and attitudes of the population in America or the west generally. Israel has made the same mistakes with its attracks on Lebanon thet bushco made with its attack on Iraq, and with the same result. Support for Hizbollah and hatred of srrael has increased dramatically throughout the people of Lebanon because of Israel's action, as has hatred of the US been increased by bushcos actions. Why is it that seemingly every problem these people "invent" and go to "war" against get bigger amd bigger? When will the realization sink in that the root causes of the problems lie in the Israeli and American governments own action? Bill Moyers recently interviewed Salman Rushdie in the June 23, 2006 PBS broadcast "Bill Moyers on Faith and Reason". Their discussion highlighted these very points:
    BILL MOYERS: But many people say that that kind of extremist behavior is part and parcel of the ideology of the heart of Islam. What do you-- SALMAN RUSHDIE: I don't think necessarily. I mean, the IRA was not intrinsically-- was not somehow arising from something intrinsic to Catholicism. And actually the IRA is a relevant example. Because when the Catholics of Northern Ireland became disillusioned by being represented by the IRA that is what brought the IRA to the peace table. At that moment their power disappeared. And that's why I'm saying that it is in a way incumbent on the Muslim world to reject Islamic radicalism, because that is what will remove the power of Islamic radicalism. BILL MOYERS: Is America doomed to live under a fatwah as you did? Under the threat of terrorism for a long time, as you did? SALMAN RUSHDIE: Yes, I think. But I mean, I think everywhere is dangerous now. You know the world is not a safe place; and there are no safe corners of it. And actually, there probably never have been. I think, in a way, America was insulated from that for awhile by the enormous power of America. But even that no longer insulates. So I think we do have to accept that the world is like that now. And I think -- one of the reasons I can say this is that, having lived in England during the years of the of the IRA campaign -- it became something that people, in a way, came to accept. That every so often a bomb would go off in a shopping mall, shopping center, and in the end, people refused to allow that to change their daily lives and just proceeded. And I think that refusal to be deflected from the path of normality also played a great deal of the role in the defeat of the IRA, that they didn't achieve their goal. And I think it is, I mean, it's something I've written quite a bit about, that the answer to terrorism is not to be terrorized, and it becomes important to continue--


    Re: The Fragile Truce Begins (none / 0) (#6)
    by Edger on Mon Aug 14, 2006 at 09:45:20 AM EST
    errr. That should read "wider conflict"... not "wiser conflict"

    Re: The Fragile Truce Begins (none / 0) (#7)
    by soccerdad on Mon Aug 14, 2006 at 10:24:02 AM EST
    When will the realization sink in that the root causes of the problems lie in the Israeli and American governments own action?
    Bush and his neocons are not interested in solving this problem. Their goal is and always was control of the ME and its resources and a projection of American power eastward.

    Re: The Fragile Truce Begins (none / 0) (#8)
    by Edger on Mon Aug 14, 2006 at 10:36:10 AM EST
    Soc - I think it's alread sunk in to the majority of the country. Hence the Tough Times Ahead for Republicans. But I guess there will always be that 30% or so support for bush that is so obtuse and bullet proof that nothing goes in and everything bounces off. "Smart like fireplugs", you know?

    Re: The Fragile Truce Begins (none / 0) (#9)
    by Peaches on Mon Aug 14, 2006 at 10:38:12 AM EST
    Interesting interview with Seymour Hersh on Democracy Now today. Also, he has another article in the New Yorker on Bush/Cheney's planning of the Israeli retaliatory attacks in Lebanon.

    Re: The Fragile Truce Begins (none / 0) (#10)
    by Peaches on Mon Aug 14, 2006 at 10:39:22 AM EST
    Interesting interview with Seymour Hersh on Democracy Now today. Also, he has another article in the New Yorker on Bush/Cheney's planning of the Israeli retaliatory attacks in Lebanon.

    Re: The Fragile Truce Begins (none / 0) (#11)
    by soccerdad on Mon Aug 14, 2006 at 10:50:37 AM EST
    edger hope you are right, I'm not so sure they still cant ne manipulated

    Re: The Fragile Truce Begins (none / 0) (#12)
    by Edger on Mon Aug 14, 2006 at 10:59:48 AM EST
    Soc - Me too... Bushco is trying hard now, thru Chernoff and HS to do ratchet up the fear levels. And who knows how far they'll go to save their asses at the expense of the country. A trillion dollars in debt now, and most of the world turned against them? Desperation could make them crazier than they already are...

    Re: The Fragile Truce Begins (none / 0) (#13)
    by soccerdad on Mon Aug 14, 2006 at 11:32:15 AM EST
    Desperation could make them crazier than they already are...
    I really believe the neocons, it looks like its primarily Abrahms and Cheney egged on by all the usual suspects, will go for the attack on Iran. They will use the low yield nukes that have already been deployed to the region. This will likely be their only chance and from their point of view they have no other choice. If you accept that their main goal was to control ME resources and project power, to stop now means complete defeat for their paradigm. If they go ahead its going to be a blood bath. The Shias in Iraq will turn forcibly on the US troops which will be used for further escalation. B52's? Their reasoning for things not going well is: not enough force at the right time aimed at the right people, etc etc. Hold your nose and go over to NRO and read today's piece by Leeden. Truly scary stuff. There's no way they're going to come to their senses. These neocons are fanatics and lunatics who will never acknowledge defeat or responsibility.

    Re: The Fragile Truce Begins (none / 0) (#14)
    by Edger on Mon Aug 14, 2006 at 11:55:04 AM EST
    There's no way they're going to come to their senses. These neocons are fanatics and lunatics who will never acknowledge defeat or responsibility. Hitler wouldn't either, and thought the same way - that he and the Nazis could get away with anything and never be held accountable. But he ran into the same thing bushco is running into. Unmanageable debt, an economy that is nothing but a house of cards... and the entire world turned against him. He did enormous damage... but where are he and the Nazis now?

    Re: The Fragile Truce Begins (none / 0) (#15)
    by jimakaPPJ on Mon Aug 14, 2006 at 12:00:11 PM EST
    edger - Thank you for the Rushdie quote, although I doubt you knew what you were quoting:
    And that's why I'm saying that it is in a way incumbent on the Muslim world to reject Islamic radicalism, because that is what will remove the power of Islamic radicalism.
    Now how is the best way to empower the "moderates?" Simple. Express in simple language the fact that we welcome everyone as long as they consider themselves Americans and put America before anyother group. Nothing else is acceptable.

    Re: The Fragile Truce Begins (none / 0) (#16)
    by Edger on Mon Aug 14, 2006 at 12:03:54 PM EST
    See what I mean, Soccerdad? "Smart like fireplugs", you know? ;-)

    Re: The Fragile Truce Begins (none / 0) (#17)
    by Al on Mon Aug 14, 2006 at 12:13:44 PM EST
    PPJ, have you stopped to consider the possibility that when Rushdie talks about the Muslim world, he may actually be thinking of people outside the United States? (There are such people, you know). I doubt that this truce will hold out. I think it's even odds that fighting will renew before the international force has a chance to deploy. Already the Israeli PM is saying that Israel will not stop attacking Hezbollah's leaders in Lebanon, pretending that this is not an offensive military action.

    Re: The Fragile Truce Begins (none / 0) (#18)
    by Peaches on Mon Aug 14, 2006 at 12:24:04 PM EST
    I really believe the neocons, it looks like its primarily Abrahms and Cheney egged on by all the usual suspects, will go for the attack on Iran.
    SD, Seymour Hersh agrees with you. Cheney will take all the wrong lessons from Israel's failed attempt to eliminate Hezbollah. Bush does not want to leave the white House with Iran a nuclear state. He is intent upon attacking them and the low-yield nukes offer the only remaining alternative for striking the bunkers and deep underground nuclear facilities after the experience of the Israelis in Lebanon. Hersh thinks it will come after the election when Bush is a lame duck. He thinks Bush sees himself as Churchill after the war, when the British public rejected him. He wasn't recognized as a great leader until many years later. Bush thinks attacking Iran is the right thing to do. So, Hersh fears Bush will attack Iran. Nuclear weapons were on the table this spring as part of a war plan. Bush/Cheney were votetd down by the military. However, Bush might not care after the election about being the renegade going against the generals. He thinks he is right. That's enough for him. Jim, You realize Rushdie is a citizen of Great Britain and not AMerica. and, he was talking about Muslims all around the world. otherwise your quote
    Express in simple language the fact that we welcome everyone as long as they consider themselves Americans and put America before anyother group. Nothing else is acceptable.
    is exactly what alienates us from the rest of the world.

    Re: The Fragile Truce Begins (none / 0) (#19)
    by soccerdad on Mon Aug 14, 2006 at 12:29:40 PM EST
    Peaches see Billmon for yet another pessimistic view of things.
    But like the JCS staffer, I also suspect that failure in Lebanon has badly eroded whatever slim chance remained that war could be avoided. I say that at least in part because of Commander Codpiece and his demonstrated tendency to treat any unexpected reversal or failure as a personal rebuke.


    Re: The Fragile Truce Begins (none / 0) (#20)
    by Edger on Mon Aug 14, 2006 at 12:47:05 PM EST
    Not only is Israels attack on Lebanon a microcosm of bushcos WOT, Israeli PM Olmert's rapidly developing political meltdown is an example in miniature of bush's fate: Olmert fights for political survival Mon Aug 14, 2006 11:10am
    JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert began a battle for his political survival on Monday by acknowledging shortcomings in the conduct of a month-long war with Hizbollah but saying the fight had been worthwhile.
    ...
    Opinion polls show public support eroding for Olmert, a career politician who lacks the combat credentials of many of his predecessors.
    Re: The Fragile Truce Begins (none / 0) (#21)
    by soccerdad on Mon Aug 14, 2006 at 01:27:54 PM EST
    From Helena Cobban
    Colonial-style militarism and double standards really have no place in the kind of 21st century I seek to build. All of these conflict and concerns-- every single one of them!-- can certainly be resolved through negotiation and other nonviolent means, if only (1) we all make every effort to discover, develop, and actually use such forms of conflict resolution, and (2) we base all these efforts on a simple and strong commitment to the equality of all human beings. There are no states or peoples that have any legitimate claim to be given any "special" treatment. All the peoples of the Middle East have long histories of suffering. The challenge now is to help them-- and the rest of us!-- to get out of the well-turned cycles of increasingly lethal violence.
    Re: The Fragile Truce Begins (none / 0) (#22)
    by Talkleft Visitor on Mon Aug 14, 2006 at 02:03:10 PM EST
    Soccerdad... To continually push the idea that this is all the Arab's fault is idiotic and not supported by most analysts Link please... Let's see.. of the 3 wars against Isreal since 1967 ...how many were actually started by Isreal? Uh... NONE! And how many were started by Arabs.. All 3! Ok..next worthless point? The Israeil's unilateral approach and continued oppression of Palestinians preclude a peace. Opression? And how is that? Because they fight back when attacked? And what about Gaza...wasn't that suppose to be for a Palestinian homeland? Only the US has the power to force the Israelis back to the negotiating table whereas other Arab countries could pressure the Palestinians. Could, but they won't...which is the crux of the problem. If the rest of Arabia (you know, the ones that supposedly don't want Isreal eliminated) would actually get involved instead of sitting on their hands.. And just what is Isreal suppose to negotiate anyway? To suggest that most arabs dont want peace is racist, Call it what you want as long as you realize it certainly seems to be the truth. The "silent majority" sure isn't saying much. Why is that SD? These neocons are fanatics and lunatics who will never acknowledge defeat or responsibility. Defeat? We certainly acknowledge that...when it happens, but it's a little early to throw in the towel now! I know the 'cut & run' idea appeals, but let's not get too hasty here. You're not part French are you... hehehe Edger.... When will the realization sink in that the root causes of the problems lie in the Israeli and American governments own action? Yes...we are the evil ones aren't we? So surprised to hear you repeat that! And that's why I'm saying that it is in a way incumbent on the Muslim world to reject Islamic radicalism, because that is what will remove the power of Islamic radicalism. Rushdie has a good point... As I asked SD in the post above.... when can we expect the rest of the Muslim world to do that? Unmanageable debt, an economy that is nothing but a house of cards... and the entire world turned against him. Hitler... ran into the US military! And yes, the entire world turned against him after they realized he wasn't going to be appeased or go away.... The hope (for most of us anyway) is the the world will wake up to this new fascism (Islamic radicals) and not wait until (like Hitler) it's too late and he builds up his war machine. Good analogy on Hitler...but you are fingering the wrong people. Bush isn't trying to take over the world (or nukes would be flying already)...but...radical Islam...well, that's different story and the rest of you need to wake up. JERUSALEM (Reuters) Reuters... humm...any doctored photos in that report? They are known liars (just like you claim Bush is) so why are you buying anything they say?

    Re: The Fragile Truce Begins (none / 0) (#23)
    by soccerdad on Mon Aug 14, 2006 at 02:11:25 PM EST
    BB - you are completely uninformed and as on the other thread just making crap up.

    Re: The Fragile Truce Begins (none / 0) (#24)
    by Talkleft Visitor on Mon Aug 14, 2006 at 02:27:22 PM EST
    SD... I so enjoy having these little debates with you. It's so nice to have you respond back with something of substance...not call names or just pass off what I say because you have no decent response. And, it's really nice when you point out what I said in error, and show me where I actually might be wrong or "made something up".. Thanks dude! Have a great day!

    Re: The Fragile Truce Begins (none / 0) (#25)
    by Edger on Mon Aug 14, 2006 at 02:34:07 PM EST
    BB -
    and the rest of you need to wake up
    In case you hadn't noticed... the rest of us... and the Israeli public, woke up long ago: Aug. 11, 2006 11:04 | Updated Aug. 11, 2006 11:23 Polls: Drop in support for Olmert By ASSOCIATED PRESS, JERUSALEM And here are 1,780,000 other web pages about Olmerts political troubles. I'm sorry you didn't like the first source that reported the polls about Olmert, BB. Sweet dreams, BB. ;-) You said something about the rest of us?

    Re: The Fragile Truce Begins (none / 0) (#26)
    by squeaky on Mon Aug 14, 2006 at 02:59:29 PM EST
    From Robert Fisk in Beirut:
    As the 6am ceasefire takes effect... the real war begins. From this morning, Hizbollah's operations will be directed solely against the invasion force. And the Israelis cannot afford to lose 40 men a day. Unable to shoot down the Israeli F-16 aircraft that have laid waste to much of Lebanon, the Hizbollah have, for years, prayed and longed and waited for the moment when they could attack the Israeli army on the ground.
    The Independent

    Re: The Fragile Truce Begins (none / 0) (#27)
    by Edger on Mon Aug 14, 2006 at 03:14:09 PM EST
    the Hizbollah have, for years, prayed and longed and waited for the moment when they could attack the Israeli army on the ground.
    Brilliant, Olmert. Give them exactly what they wanted all along... Been taking advice from BB et al, Ehud? Did Ariels stroke cut off the oxygen to your brain too?

    Re: The Fragile Truce Begins (none / 0) (#28)
    by squeaky on Mon Aug 14, 2006 at 03:32:05 PM EST
    Flypaper? It does seem that the Israelis are stuck and not as tough as when they are 10,000 feet in the air bombing anything that moves. The fine line between a terrorist fly and a freedom fighter fly becomes a sticking point.

    Re: The Fragile Truce Begins (none / 0) (#29)
    by soccerdad on Mon Aug 14, 2006 at 03:37:15 PM EST
    BB I showed u on the other thread. I only have so much time. Your not a serious commenter, just flinging stuff around. Try citing some respectable source which you never do.

    Re: The Fragile Truce Begins (none / 0) (#30)
    by jimakaPPJ on Mon Aug 14, 2006 at 07:17:46 PM EST
    Peaches - Yes, I do. My comment, as clever old you may figure out, was referring to America, but it could, and should, apply to any country in the world that is suffering an influx of Moslems, or for that matter, any group so large and so different from the native population that assimilation will be especially difficult. You write:
    is exactly what alienates us from the rest of the world.
    Perhaps you could explain why it is bad for a country to expect people who come live in that country to become part of that country. When I go to someone's home who doesn't drink, I don't carry a bottle. And when they visit mine, I won't pop a top when they're there. But I certainly expect them to not try and burn down my home and kill me and my family because I have booze in the house. Peaches this attitude, that we shouldn't expect people to become part of our country, is silly. If they don't like the culture, why are they here? SD wrote:
    To suggest that most arabs dont want peace is racist,
    Huh? It might be dumb, but it isn't racist. Shall we break out the old dictionary?
    a belief that race is the primary determinant of human traits and capacities and that racial differences produce an inherent superiority of a particular race
    You rant too much, SD. As for starting wars, the point is accurate to say that Israel didn't attack Hezbollah. Your judophobia is showing.

    Re: The Fragile Truce Begins (none / 0) (#31)
    by soccerdad on Mon Aug 14, 2006 at 07:31:51 PM EST
    ppj your mendacity and stupidity are showing.

    Re: The Fragile Truce Begins (none / 0) (#32)
    by Talkleft Visitor on Tue Aug 15, 2006 at 07:24:33 AM EST
    Edger.... In case you hadn't noticed... the rest of us... and the Israeli public, woke up long ago: I wasn't talking about Isreal. Try reading it again. You and SD are alike in that you give what you think are clever little responses but they have little to do with what was said. You're both just interested in making your point...even if it doesn't relate. Then you complain that we aren't saying anything... Very funny and is actually what keeps me coming here. I show my friends too... LOL As in this by SD.... ppj your mendacity and stupidity are showing. PPJ goes into some detail and this is his retort! SD is all about not answering or just ignoring all together and instead throws out what he thinks are witty one liners.... Pretty sad but it actually says alot.

    Re: The Fragile Truce Begins (none / 0) (#33)
    by Peaches on Tue Aug 15, 2006 at 07:46:54 AM EST
    Peaches this attitude, that we shouldn't expect people to become part of our country, is silly. If they don't like the culture, why are they here?
    Jim, First off, I was refering to your statement about America and the rest of the world. Putting America ahead of all other cultures. I think you cleared that up with by saying it applied to any nation. I expect immigrant to come here and abide by American laws. I also believe America is a nation tolerant of all individual beliefs and separates religion from Government. I don't think the Muslim community has had anymore problems assimalating into American culture than any other immigrant group during our history.

    Re: The Fragile Truce Begins (none / 0) (#34)
    by squeaky on Tue Aug 15, 2006 at 07:53:43 AM EST
    ppj-
    Your judophobia is showing.
    And your naziphilia is showing.

    Re: The Fragile Truce Begins (none / 0) (#35)
    by soccerdad on Tue Aug 15, 2006 at 07:54:13 AM EST
    but of course BB has no problem with ppj saying
    Your judophobia is showing.
    hypocrite as I said you are not a serious poster. You never have references for anything. Throwing crap against the wall and seeing what sticks is not debating or being serious.

    The Fragile Truce Begins | 35 comments (35 topical)