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Poll: GOP Losing Its Base

A new Newsweek poll finds that Republicans are losing support among their base. Here are some of the findings:

  • Majority Wants Dems to Win Congress;
  • 31 Percent of White Evangelicals Would Vote for Democratic Candidate in Their District
  • Bush Approval at 35 Percent;
  • 56 Percent Say President Won't Be Able to Get Much Done in Remainder of Term
  • 74 Percent Support Dems on Drug Pricing, Including 70 Percent of Republicans;
  • 68 Percent Support Dems on Hike in Minimum Wage,
    Including 53 Percent of GOP
  • 65 Percent of Americans Say U.s. Losing Ground in Iraq;

And perhaps the worst for the GOP,

  • Terrorism Trails as Issue Behind Iraq, Economy, and Health Care

Take white Catholics, swing voters who went for President George W. Bush in the 2004 election. This time 44 percent of them plan to vote Democrat versus 42 percent who plan to vote Republican. Among independents, 44 percent support the Democrat in their district, while 34 percent support the Republican.

And voters have more faith in the Democrats to handle almost every major issue presented in the poll, which was conducted on Thursday and Friday nights through phone interviews with 1,000 adults: from Iraq (46 to 34), to the economy (50 to 35), to federal spending (52 to 29), to health care (57 to 24).

Newsweek is quick to point out that Democrats shouldn't start "measuring the drapes" in the Speaker's office. Now that the Foley scandal has died down, Republicans are regaining lost points in the "moral values" department.

Update: Chris Bowers of MyDD adds his thoughts on the poll, as does The Next Hurrah.

I agree Dems shouldn't count their chickens before they hatch, but if I had to pick a phrase to describe my current assessment of the 2006 battle to take back Congress, it would be "cautiously optimistic."

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  • Display: Sort:
    Re: Poll: GOP Losing Its Base (1.00 / 0) (#17)
    by jimakaPPJ on Mon Oct 23, 2006 at 08:22:10 AM EST
    DA - Actually I know by reading Last Night In Little Rock's post from yesterday.

    also, when Clinton had a hit put on bin Laden in the midst of the Lewisky scandal, the Republicans claimed a "wag the dog" scenario, and Clinton backed off when the GOP yelled "politics."

    So there it is. Clinton backed off because of politics. Kinda says it all about him, doesn't it.

    But the Left thinks that is acceptable, and they think everyone does it. So when they run up against someone who doesn't, they complete misjudge.


    Re: Poll: GOP Losing Its Base (none / 0) (#1)
    by Dadler on Sat Oct 21, 2006 at 01:15:07 PM EST
    I think a great deal of marbles are being lost, as well.  

    Re: Poll: GOP Losing Its Base (none / 0) (#3)
    by Edger on Sat Oct 21, 2006 at 01:24:57 PM EST
    GOP Losing Its Base (none / 0) (#2)
    by theologicus on Sat Oct 21, 2006 at 01:19:24 PM EST
    Over at electoral-vote.com, there is a great daily tabluation of how all the national Senate and House races are shaping up.

    Many of them are very close.

    What worries me in the pit of my stomach are all those eminently hackable voting machines.

    If it turns out that unanticipated last-minute swings appear after the votes are tabulated of 5-7 points in favor of the Republicans, keeping them in control of the Congress, be very afraid.

    Re: Poll: GOP Losing Its Base (none / 0) (#4)
    by Edger on Sat Oct 21, 2006 at 01:37:17 PM EST
    Now that the Foley scandal has died down, Republicans are regaining lost points in the "moral values" department.

    Until they really think about the cost of attributing any "moral values" to republicans:

    Take white Catholics, swing voters who went for President George W. Bush in the 2004 election. This time 44 percent of them plan to vote Democrat versus 42 percent who plan to vote Republican.

    If they stay home the gop is dead. And they get to stay true to their professed morals. It'll be the first time in 6 years, but hey, they gotta start cleansing themselves of their sins sometime, right?

    31 Percent of White Evangelicals Would Vote for Democratic Candidate in Their District...

    ...leaving 69 Percent who will either stay home, or vote for the gop candidate...

    If they don't stay home, and go vote for gop candidates, they show themselves up as lying immoral hypocrites who've sold their souls cheap, and for what? A vicarious feeling of power? A pat on the head and a stab in the back from Bush while he laughs at them as suckers behind their backs? And they'll be repudiating everything their professed religion has taught them all their lives.

    And still lose the house and the senate.

    Helluva choice. Thanks to Bush and the gop.


    Re: Poll: GOP Losing Its Base (none / 0) (#5)
    by Daniel DiRito on Sat Oct 21, 2006 at 01:42:42 PM EST
    My dad tells a story about WWII that seems to apply today. He used to go to the movies with his grandfather and during the war; they showed newsreels that discussed the war efforts. Essentially, they were propaganda meant to encourage Americans that the war effort was going well. My dad's grandfather, who had grown up in Italy and witnessed the trauma of war didn't like the newsreels. My dad says that his grandfather would ridicule the newsreels with his own sarcastic explanation of the war that went like this. He would say that every American bullet would hit its target and kill the enemy and each time a German soldier shot his weapon, the bullets would fall harmlessly to the ground and the Americans would pick them up and eat them because they were candy.

    It seems to me that many Americans may have reached the same point as my father's grandfather with regards to the war on terror and the war in Iraq...the math just doesn't work and most voters have come to that conclusion. Regardless, we'll know for sure soon enough.

    Read more here:

    www.thoughttheater.com

    Re: Poll: GOP Losing Its Base (none / 0) (#6)
    by Sailor on Sat Oct 21, 2006 at 05:51:43 PM EST
    "now that the Foley scandal has died down"

    I'm not sure that the facts coming out that republicans knew about foley since 2001 and did nothing but encourage him to run again count as 'dying down.'

    Re: Poll: GOP Losing Its Base (none / 0) (#7)
    by Edger on Sat Oct 21, 2006 at 11:00:49 PM EST
    It sure doesn't look to me like the Foley thing is dying a quick death: Google News Search for "Foley": Results 1 - 10 of about 66,000

    Church investigates priest who says he fondled Foley
    Last Updated: Friday, October 20, 2006 | 10:24 AM ET
    The Associated Press

    A Roman Catholic diocese has opened an investigation of a priest who said he fondled and shared saunas while naked with Mark Foley when the former U.S. congressman was a boy in Florida.


    Re: Poll: GOP Losing Its Base (none / 0) (#8)
    by Edger on Sun Oct 22, 2006 at 08:39:19 AM EST
    Some days you don't feel like getting out of bed.. you know?

    Bush Urges Nation To Be Quiet For A Minute While He Tries To Think

    WASHINGTON, DC--In a nationally televised address ... President Bush urged all citizens, regardless of race, creed, color, or political affiliation, "to quiet down for just one minute" so he could have "a chance to think."

    "Every American has an inalienable right to free speech and self-expression," Bush said. "Nonetheless, I call upon the American people to hold off on it for, say, 60 seconds. Just long enough for me to get this all sorted out in my head."

    "Please," Bush added.

    While the president said achieving a unilateral peace and quiet "would not be easy," he hoped that citizens would respect his wish and work toward a temporary cease-talk so that he could can hear his own thoughts "for once."

    "Make no mistake: It will take patience and sacrifice," Bush said. "But such drastic measures could lead to a better tomorrow for all of us, especially for your commander in chief."

    Bush then closed his speech by exhaling sharply, tightly closing his eyes, and massaging his temples. "I just -- Christ, I just need a goddamn minute, you know?" he said.
     


    ;-)

    Re: Poll: GOP Losing Its Base (none / 0) (#9)
    by Ernesto Del Mundo on Sun Oct 22, 2006 at 11:38:14 AM EST
    If they stay home the gop is dead.

    The problem is, they never stay home. The GOP base are hardcore, dedicated believers. Name me one recent election where they didn't show up. The problem has been that since Clinton came along in 1992, the traditional Democrats have had little or no reason to show up...and thus I am very skeptical of any great successes this election cycle. The religious zealots, the gun nuts and the supply siders WILL all be showing up. What are the Democrats offering their voters to make them go stand in line on a workday...besides still trying to look like Republicans?

    Re: Poll: GOP Losing Its Base (none / 0) (#11)
    by Edger on Sun Oct 22, 2006 at 12:02:26 PM EST
    Ernesto, I'm just doing my little bit to help demoralize the forkin' corksuckers so they stay home, or go get drunk, or do anything but show up - especially the evangelicals and the Christian "values" voters.

    I think they have potential and I want them to leave the dark side. I'd really hate to see them publicly display how much of a lie all their vaunted morality and religious beliefs are by voting for these guys again. Their children are watching and learning from their example, you know?

    Parent

    Re: Poll: GOP Losing Its Base (none / 0) (#12)
    by Edger on Sun Oct 22, 2006 at 12:24:56 PM EST
    What Will We Tell The Children?

    "I was dismayed and shocked to learn about
    Congressman Foley's unacceptable behavior."

    -- G. W. Bush

    Parent

    Re: Poll: GOP Losing Its Base (none / 0) (#10)
    by Edger on Sun Oct 22, 2006 at 11:44:25 AM EST
    The democrats need 15 seats to control the house and 6 for the senate. Charlie Cook seems to think that they'll at least take the house...

    Nobody is saying that Democrats will be picking up 50 seats, or even 40 seats. But could this hit 25 or 30 or 35 seats in the House? Absolutely. Democratic voters are spitting nails and can't wait to vote while their Republican counterparts are showing signs of despondency and may be impervious to party pleas to turn out and vote, no matter how elaborate the program is. That's how midterm election debacles occur: disproportionate turnout.

    ...and have a decent shot at the senate:

    As Republicans see their fortunes in Senate and House races decline, the trend appears to be spilling over to gubernatorial contests.  Overall, Democrats are still expected to pick up between five and eight seats, but some races are getting closer than expected as another Republican-held seat moves to the Toss Up column.
     

    If I was Bush I'd want more than just a minute to try and think.

    Bush: "Karl...they can't really do this to me, can they...Karl...Karl?"

    Rove: "George, your damn war is going to cost us the election and put an end to the GOP era..."

    Bush: "@#$%^&!!!"

    Re: Poll: GOP Losing Its Base (none / 0) (#13)
    by jimakaPPJ on Sun Oct 22, 2006 at 04:53:16 PM EST
    edger - As usual the Left misunderstands Bush. The reason? They see the world through eyes that see politics as only about power, money and governing.

    Bush doesn't.

    Bush: "Karl...they can't really do this to me, can they...Karl...Karl?"

    Rove: "George, your damn war is going to cost us the election and put an end to the GOP era..."

    Bush: "The war had to be fought."

    However this forecast bitter disappointment for the Demos, and the Left.

    Our analysis -- based on a race-by-race examination of campaign-finance data -- suggests that the GOP will hang on to both chambers

    Is our method reliable? It certainly has been in the past. Using it in the 2002 and 2004 congressional races, we bucked conventional wisdom and correctly predicted GOP gains both years. Look at House races back to 1972 and you'll find the candidate with the most money has won about 93% of the time. And that's closer to 98% in more recent years, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Polls can be far less reliable. Remember, they all but declared John Kerry president on Election Day 2004.


    Re: Poll: GOP Losing Its Base (none / 0) (#15)
    by jimakaPPJ on Sun Oct 22, 2006 at 07:00:25 PM EST
    DA - By listening to those who claim to know him and by observation. For example it was common knowledge and widely written that Clinton lived by the polls.

    As for your usual psychobabble, it is exactly that, your usual psychobabble.

    Re: Poll: GOP Losing Its Base (none / 0) (#18)
    by Edger on Mon Oct 23, 2006 at 08:34:17 AM EST
    DA?

    Maybe TL's title for this thread is a misprint. It's starting to look more like:

    "GOP's base is losing it!"

    ;-)

    Re: Losing it (none / 0) (#20)
    by Edger on Mon Oct 23, 2006 at 02:09:10 PM EST
    DA, some people aren't really here. They just look that way. ;-)

    Re: Poll: GOP Losing Its Base (none / 0) (#21)
    by Edger on Mon Oct 23, 2006 at 07:33:42 PM EST
    As I said in another thread, the GOP is not only losing its base... the GOP's base is losing it.

    And the vast majority of the country is determined to lose them.