We cannot win, despite the maladministrations efforts now to suck up to the Sunni Bathists by promising them a return to power if they assist in stopping the Shia militias and death squads of our own making. Muqtada al-Sadr threatens to undermine al-Maliki's government if he even MEETS with bush in Jordan.

Iraq is so unstable and engaged in such a violent civil war, that no one wants to admit is happening, that there is zero chance of winning or pulling out now and watching the country dissolve into separate warring factions that will cause an unknown, but likely hugh, number of further deaths.

The Iraqis have gained NOTHING and, indeed, under the current negotiations may wind up back in the hands of a Bathist Sunni strongman -Tariq Aziz is being or has been set free to aid in these negotiations. America not only installed a puppet government of Shias, but now we are willing to switch sides and dump al-Maliki.

This will establish for the world that America not only pursues wars of aggression, but that we are too incompetent to either win OR pull out without disastrous consequences for the entire Middle East. It also establishes the fact that you can be the world's last remaining superpower and still be badly defeated by insurgent warfare, a lesson we should have learned in Vietnam.

And by exposing the weaknesses of America's tissue-thin paper-tiger military and stretching it past the breaking point, bush has left America vulnerable in ways we previously could not imagine.

And, meanwhile, China quietly circles the globe buying up every oil contract they can find from any country, stabilizing their oil supply peacefully while we expend trillions of dollars, thousands and thousands of dead and wounded troops, and arouse the ire of the world in OUR pursuit of oil.

Nice job indeed, mr. boosh and friends.

The declassified judgments from the National Intelligence Estimate on terrorism caused a stir in the political world this week, but for most--we would guess almost all--scholars of jihadist terrorism, they are largely uncontroversial. The war in Iraq, the lack of reform in the Muslim world and anger at its endemic corruption and injustice, the pervasiveness of anti-Western sentiment--all these have long been identified as major drivers of radical Islamist terror.
...
In fact, though, you don't need an NIE to demonstrate the most controversial judgment--that the war in Iraq has worsened the terrorist threat. The official coordinated evaluation by Britain's domestic security and foreign intelligence services noted that the conflict in Iraq has exacerbated the threat from international terrorism and will continue to have an impact in the long term. This conclusion is echoed by interior ministries, law enforcement agencies and intelligence services in every part of the world.

The Breaking Point

How much worse can it get?

There is no good news from Iraq. It's all bad. The magnitude of America's defeat is becoming clearer and clearer with each passing day. Rumsfeld's cheery propaganda campaign has fallen on hard times and will have no effect on the wars' final outcome. The problem is the policy; it is untenable and will require a thorough overhaul.
...
Whatever transpires, the first phase of the Iraqi fiasco is nearly over. The Bush administration will be compelled to protect its interests while limiting the exposure of its troops. They may choose to minimize their activities to bombing raids and counter-insurgency operations, further destroying the threadbare fabric of Iraqi society.

Security is not important. Lives are not important. Only oil and the people it enriches are important.

With a timely reference to the rise and fall of the O.J. Simpson tell-some book (and what she's calls the "Thanksgiving Day Massacre" in Iraq) Maureen Dowd in her Saturday column for The New York Times suggests that President Bush go on Fox News and declare, "IF I did it -- here's how the civil war in Iraq happened."

When she is good she rocks. This one smokes.

Defense Minister Boonrawd Somtat said Friday that insurgents had stepped up violence to keep residents from accepting new peace overtures from the authorities.

"They have intensified violent attacks to intimidate and terrify people," Boonrawd said, adding that the shadowy groups behind the violence have not accepted government offers to hold talks.

Appeasement doesn't work.  Not in the 1930's, not in Thailand, not in Iraq.  If we get what TL wants - a hasty withdrawal - we'll have a regional war on our hands.  You can put whatever flowerly phrases you want in front if it - if you think things in Iraq are bad now, wait until you get your wish.  Things will be a whole heck of a lot worse.

As to aw's comments, nope - I have a very well behaved 13 year old now.  When she was little, my wife and I removed her from places when she acted up - including places we really wanted to be.  She learned quickly that behaving badly led to going home early.  That included places like DisneyWorld, where we ended up taking more than one early trip back to the hotel room.  

What we see building in Iraq - and in Thailand - is the alternate theory at work.  trying to be "nice" to the bad actors simply leads to more bad acts, and makes the confrontation down the road all the worse.  As I said above, leaving Iraq won't lead to less death - it will lead to more.  It will lead to a regional war between the Sunni and Shia powers, and - given the economic importance of that region, we won't be able to stand aside.

After all, bush and his republican guard have proved themselves to be the most ignorant of history, easily conned, most deluded, and the most incompetent administration in all of American history.

The Secret Development of a Plan for Iraq

and