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Is Hillary The Electable Dem?

Not surprisingly, Hillary's pollster Mark Penn thinks so. But he does have numbers to buttress his argument:

Penn cited the ABC News/Washington Post poll of adults this month, which found 56% with favorable opinions of Clinton and 40% with unfavorable opinions. In the poll, she is the only Democratic contender viewed favorably by more than half the country.

. . . "She gets very, very strong support from the younger generation, and particularly younger women," he said. In recent months, Penn said, he sees "a very significant surge of support" for Clinton among Democrats.

This trend is particularly dramatic in a CNN poll taken this month that showed Clinton gaining 9 percentage points since late October, to 37% in a Democratic primary, while Obama actually lost 2 points to fall to 15%. Other polls show her up by a similar margin but haven't measured his support over time. "If you notice in these polls she has a very strong lead, Democratic and otherwise, among the African-American community," he said. Obama is black and is widely expected to cut deeply into the Clintons' traditional support among African-Americans. . . .

And the recent Newsweek poll showing Hillary up 7 over MCCain would also support his view. Personally, I don't buy these polls so far out and do not think Hillary is  very electable. But that is the least of it. more so than Obama, I find Hillary's political rhetoric and style an abandonment of the Politics of Contrast (see my posts on the subject for more detail)  that I think won Dems the 2006 election and the type of politics that  Dems must adopt in the near future in all national elections. To wit, Hillary is BENEFITTING from an improved Dem brand and weakened GOP brand but her style was not part of that success. To adopt it, or Obama's, is to reject success.

I do not understand why Dems would do that. But Dems have proven to be political fools in the past so it certainly is possible they will again be so in the future.

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    Really? (5.00 / 1) (#4)
    by squeaky on Tue Dec 19, 2006 at 10:48:33 AM EST
    .... I think she will bring more people to the polls to vote against her (not for the other guy) than she will to get out voters to vote for her.

    Even with that relentless RNC talking point, "Hillary is polarizing" she has done very well in this new poll. She is not to be underestimated. Interesting that the Dems (I assume xmlman is a dem) have picked up the wingers talking points regarding Hilary verbatim.

    They are very scared of her, and should be.

    Out with Hillary in 2008 (none / 0) (#44)
    by dart07 on Sun Dec 31, 2006 at 04:10:28 PM EST
    Polarizing means she does well in poll numbers but she cannot get elected President.

    Parent
    Hillary (5.00 / 1) (#17)
    by virginia cynic on Tue Dec 19, 2006 at 12:19:39 PM EST
    will never get my vote even though I am a die hard dem. if necessary I will not vote. I had considered that position based on her pro war vote and then her refusal to back away from the debacle. I had reluctantly voted for Kerry after the " I would still have voted..." statement but thought that at 56 years old I am getting tired of this voting for someone who keeps playing to the middle and being so overly concerned with approval.  But then Hillary solved that old tired dilemma and killed forever the potential of  my vote with her support of the destruction of Lebanon this last summer " Israeli values are our values".
    Put her on the Supreme court, make her the majority leader someday maybe, but not President


    Looking back and forward (5.00 / 1) (#34)
    by Donna Z on Tue Dec 19, 2006 at 08:58:00 PM EST
    I wrote this post over a year ago believing that by 2008 the election's driving themes will be change, and the war. Even with Obama's entry, reading over my past thoughts, I'm sticking by them. Obama has solid proof that he was against the war, but he doesn't satisfy the required credibility factor.

    The one thing that has changed is the majority in both houses of congress. Of course the ever horrible Lieberman can shift that status, but currently those majorities actually make it easier for the swing voters to in a republican POTUS now that they are freed from worrying about one-party rule. And now for why not Hillary:

    Morally, I'm having great difficulty considering any candidate who ignored the voices of sanity advising NO war, but that is another issue. 

    Policy: Both the policy of "preventive war" (this war was not preemptive) and opening up a battlefield in the Gulf sure to increase terrorism is dumb policy, and thus, those who voted for it have no business in the oval office. But that is another issue.

    Politically. Let's look at the politics of running with a candidate who voted for war (note: I do not buy, and the American people will not buy, the positioning of politicians who claim they were duped.) 

    The names currently being mentioned as Democratic candidates, with the exception of Wes Clark, do not have necessary credentials to speak on foreign policy. Either they were A) wrong about the war or, B) have not served and have no significant experience outside of a few years on some related committee with its attendant photo-ops. Sorry, if this applies to some nice people, but it just does. 

    Any politician who voted for the war, or who does not have the authority to question the republicans regarding the war, will most likely down-play any mention of Iraq. This is not 1992, and our country needs leadership. Politically, the Iraq War and foreign policy, no matter what is going on in the Gulf, is the republicans weakness, and it will remain a weakness during the next presidential election in 2008. The republicans having a weakness does not translate into a Democratic strength if we nominate a candidate who can't explore that weakness. Advocating for a different foreign policy, one that is multilateral, means that the candidate must be perceived at strong on national defense. Anything less, hands the republicans a pass, a get out of election-sore-loser free card.

    Furthermore, the money for social programs is rapidly being spent on this war. The political capital, the leverage that we so desperately need in the world arena, is being squandered to place Iran in a position of power in Iraq. We need a voice of opposition to this madness, not a grumble of discontented sighs about being mislead. Democratic programs need both the bully-pulpit and the money. How do we get there without knocking on the Pentagon door for a contribution?

    Ultimately, we must run as an agent for change, in governing, in policy, in national tone, and in direction. The current push in the media and party to run a Democrat with the same name as the old Democrat, will fail because once again, we will be giving our advantage to the republicans. We will look like the retro-party and permit them to run on change. 

    I'm not very optimistic at this point that Democrats will think smart anytime soon. The wheels within wheels are very ominous.

    Looking back at my writing, I had expected to cringe or forced to edit. Nope. I wasn't afraid to put this post forward to add to this conversation.

    Hillary (4.00 / 1) (#22)
    by peacrevol on Tue Dec 19, 2006 at 12:47:25 PM EST
    does not excite me in the least. I dont think I would vote for her in 2008. She seems to be very ademate about some issues, but extremely stand offish about others. Like the war for one thing. She voted to go in the first place, which is not so terrible b/c a lot of people did: based, i assume, on bad info from the exec branch. But after we found no wmds she didnt even offer to change her stance. To me that signaled that she wanted to be self-affirming of her vote to the extent that she wont change her stance to try to make it right. Maybe none of the candidates will, but that's the standard I hold them to. If they all give me the same impression, I might just go write in Jeralyn's name. :)

    Yes. (none / 0) (#1)
    by aw on Tue Dec 19, 2006 at 10:08:11 AM EST
    To wit, Hillary is BENEFITTING from an improved Dem brand and weakened GOP brand but her style was not part of that success. To adopt it, or Obama's, is to reject success.

    Follow the money.

    I don't know about that (none / 0) (#3)
    by aw on Tue Dec 19, 2006 at 10:44:03 AM EST
    I don't believe Democrats would vote for a Republican against Hillary (I wouldn't).  We might not be excited, but we wouldn't go that far.

    I just think she would be a big triangulating disappointment.

    See (none / 0) (#6)
    by squeaky on Tue Dec 19, 2006 at 11:04:41 AM EST
    Our resident wingnut gives us advice. Hillary is a loser....hahahhahahaha.

    They are very scared.

    Paperhead's next comment deleted (5.00 / 2) (#7)
    by Jeralyn on Tue Dec 19, 2006 at 11:08:40 AM EST
    Paperhead has been violating the site's comment policy by using insults, name-calling and offensive language.  I have deleted his last comment and sent him a warning.

    If he does it again, he will be banned from the site.

    Alternative points of view are fine, so long as they are expressed without name-calling, insults, and personal attacks.

    Parent

    A lot you know about it (none / 0) (#8)
    by aw on Tue Dec 19, 2006 at 11:13:50 AM EST
    her proposed, oppressive universal healthcare

    Her/DLC healthcare proposals don't go far enough.  They natter on about "choice" and universal healthcare for children, which is fine but doesn't go far enough.  They're against single-payer universal healthcare.

    Too easy (5.00 / 2) (#11)
    by aw on Tue Dec 19, 2006 at 11:33:12 AM EST
    Norway.  Highest standard of living in the world.  Extremely low unemployment, 3.3% in September and expected to remain stable.

    Parent
    we're ALL socialists, junior (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by Dadler on Tue Dec 19, 2006 at 12:27:42 PM EST
    Gimme a break, unless you want to relinquish your socialized Police, Fire Departments, Garbage collection, military, water, energy, you name it, unless you essentially want to live in an anarchy, then you're simply making empty noise trying to smear universal health care with ridiculous and tired commie-baiting, of all things.

    Tell you what, you go live in a place where no one cares about anyone else or the collective society and environment THEY ALL MUST live in, then get back to me.  Until then, why don't you go enjoy the massive war profiteering being carried out by your ideological pals.  Skim some money yourself, there's probably no of/by/for-the-people watching anyway.  Nor should there be, right?

    Parent

    Have you ever worked for a company? (none / 0) (#29)
    by aw on Tue Dec 19, 2006 at 01:45:36 PM EST
    Any time you privatize something, it by nature becomes more efficient.


    Parent
    Did you pass (none / 0) (#30)
    by squeaky on Tue Dec 19, 2006 at 02:17:47 PM EST
     
    I had an economics professor tell me once.....

    My guess is no.

    Parent

    How OT can you get? (none / 0) (#32)
    by squeaky on Tue Dec 19, 2006 at 02:58:42 PM EST
    Oops (none / 0) (#9)
    by aw on Tue Dec 19, 2006 at 11:15:20 AM EST
    he's gone.

    Parent
    I see.... (none / 0) (#12)
    by kdog on Tue Dec 19, 2006 at 11:34:12 AM EST
    A strong economy (aka profit) is more important than a healthy populace with access to health care.  

    I couldn't disagree more.

    Parent

    You get your (none / 0) (#15)
    by aw on Tue Dec 19, 2006 at 11:45:28 AM EST
    talking points right out of a can.

    Parent
    Can you stay on topic, paperhead? (none / 0) (#20)
    by Bill Arnett on Tue Dec 19, 2006 at 12:33:25 PM EST
    Hillary (none / 0) (#14)
    by Adams on Tue Dec 19, 2006 at 11:42:57 AM EST
    Don't much like Hillary (as a candidate).  She's clearly not a progressive, and her stand on Iraq has been, ahem, less than courageous.  Edwards is more impressive on domestic, and Clark on foreign policy.  And she has the clenis baggage, which is a problem because it gives the MSM a sensational hook on which to hang their predictable bashing and hashing:  "Let's make this election about Monica."

    I agree with Jeralyn that her nomination would be a step back from, and a blunting of, the populist, progressive surge that was nascent in the last election.

    However. The Bush/Gore election taught me that it's really dumb to express your distaste for your preferred candidate by remaining aloof and critical.  Taking cheap shots from the cheap seats.  We have Mickey Kaus for that.

    If she's nominated I'll support her in every way I can.  I just hope she does the same if the nominee is someone else.          

    please don't ban paperhead (none / 0) (#16)
    by cpinva on Tue Dec 19, 2006 at 11:53:46 AM EST
    he's low hanging fruit. :)

    guy, like the war in iraq, it isn't that you're spending "billions & billions", but how you're spending them. ok, in the case of iraq, it is that you're spending "billions & billions", but i digress.

    since most kids who do poorly in school come from the lower economic/social strata, and these kids also start out 3 years behind their peers, giving them more books they can't read isn't going to help. hence, the waste of "billions & billions".

    xmlman, i fall into that 40-50 catagory, i'd vote for hillary in a heartbeat: smart, politically astute, experienced, articulate. that, and she tends to dress better than laura. you need to get out more, really.

    i don't agree with every position she has, but that's unrealistic. the ones i don't, i can live with. what we see is what has pretty much always been with her. those areas where she's changed her stance are based on changed circumstances or additional facts. something that can't be said of mr. bush.

    so yes, hillary is certainly the electable dem., no question about it.

    imo, (none / 0) (#18)
    by sarcastic unnamed one on Tue Dec 19, 2006 at 12:21:26 PM EST
    Hillary is polarizing, but I bet there are more folks who would polarize for her (primary because she's a she) than against her.

    I think a Clinton/Obama ticket would be unstoppable for many of the same reasons...

    ...and would be so akin to a popularity contest - like electing a prom king and queen - that it would give me major heebeejeebees.

    But, hey, that's politics!

    I, too, have my doubts about Hillary, SUO... (none / 0) (#23)
    by Bill Arnett on Tue Dec 19, 2006 at 12:50:35 PM EST
    ...because she IS polarizing, but I'm not so certain that that would redound to her benefit.

    I think it could indeed bring out every nutcase and rightwinger in the country to vote against "Satan's Bride", which is, no doubt, how she will be portrayed at almost every major radical evangelical church in the country.

    But it is also possible that even the evangelicals are showing cracks in their previously almost unanimous backing of the boy king, bush, and the rethug agenda.

    Southern methodist university sure as heck doesn't want bush's library there, and if the chasm increases and spreads wider, there could be a very good chance for Hillary to win.

    "Let us pray..."

    Mornin', everybody.

    Parent

    I dunno Bill (none / 0) (#26)
    by squeaky on Tue Dec 19, 2006 at 12:59:27 PM EST
    ...because she IS polarizing
    I think that because the phrase has been so oft repeated that most take it for true.

    She is very compelling and would win over those church goers in a second.

    I have met her and she is very very charasmatic, certainly not in the least bit cold and polarizing as popular opinion would have it.

    Parent

    That Conventional Wisdom thing... (none / 0) (#27)
    by Bill Arnett on Tue Dec 19, 2006 at 01:18:39 PM EST
    ...which is often proved wrong. Point taken.

    Parent
    Did Rove start it? (none / 0) (#21)
    by squeaky on Tue Dec 19, 2006 at 12:42:09 PM EST
    Hillary is polarizing

    It is more and more clear that this talking point is right from the desk of Karl (Goebbels) Rove.

    Center (none / 0) (#25)
    by squeaky on Tue Dec 19, 2006 at 12:55:25 PM EST
    Funny that the wingnuts get all twisted up about Hillary. Could it be that her positions are closer to the right than the left, or that she is dead center? My guess it that she is a very electable candidate and a formidable threat to wingnut control. Not my cup of tea quite yet, maybe after a little more brewing she'll be more palatable for my tastes.  

    The wingnuts have dragged this country... (none / 0) (#43)
    by Bill Arnett on Wed Dec 20, 2006 at 01:32:24 PM EST
    ...so far to the right that Ghengis Khan would be considered a centrist.

    Parent
    Oddly enough, I would vote for Hillary (none / 0) (#28)
    by jimcbender on Tue Dec 19, 2006 at 01:44:52 PM EST
    I really dislike former President Clinton, but I would vote for Hillary (oddly enough). I am a Republican, but that would not stop me. I have been very unhappy with the people who have been running the Republican party lately (and who have run the party into the ground). My politics are center-right, and have a strong aversion to the left, although I am a Marc Cooper fan (but often disagree with him). I am more at home with the DLC types. When I was in art school at Michigan from 1965 to 1968, the crowd who were taking over the administration building and protesting against the Viet Nam war pretty permanently turned me against the left. I was center-left at the time, a liberal Republican from southwestern Michigan. So, let's hope Hillary runs. I cannot stand Mr. Obama.

    asdf (none / 0) (#38)
    by Stewieeeee on Wed Dec 20, 2006 at 06:44:37 AM EST
    i know more than one or two conservatives who went to a liberal college and turned conservative just to spite a liberal college zeitgeist.

    and that's over the last 10 years.

    i can't imagine what it was like in 1965.

     

    Parent

    You are odd (none / 0) (#46)
    by dart07 on Sun Dec 31, 2006 at 04:14:56 PM EST
    That is odd.  You are a Republican who hated Bill Clinton but you would vote for Hillary.  Come on people should say something meaningful instead of garbage.

    Parent
    squeaky (none / 0) (#33)
    by cpinva on Tue Dec 19, 2006 at 04:30:06 PM EST
    Funny that the wingnuts get all twisted up about Hillary.

    they get all twisted up because she isn't their perverse version of what a woman should be: a housefrau. that, and she's capable of rather neatly shredding them, when the occasion calls for it. damn those smart women!

    really now, demonizing her just makes the phyllis schlafly's of the world look more idiotic than they already are. although, i always found it interesting that an educated person like ms. schlafly (a lawyer), should have such anachronistic views on the "proper" place for women in this country.

    in essence, the extreme right-wing would be very at home in saudi arabia, where they still treat women as chattel.

    hillary-obama '08? hmmmmmmmmmmmm, not so sure she couldn't do better than obama. to me, absent anything concrete, he's just the flavor of the month. come talk when he's done something substantive.

    Clark (none / 0) (#35)
    by mad4clark on Tue Dec 19, 2006 at 09:13:31 PM EST
    Yep, Clark is the one, for all the reasons you stated.

    I could never give my Primary vote to anyone who voted for the IWR. That vote demonstrated extremely bad judgment..........and after the debacle of the past 6 years, good judgment is one of the main attributes I'll be looking for in a leader.

    Parent

    Hillary electable (none / 0) (#36)
    by k ols on Tue Dec 19, 2006 at 09:30:45 PM EST
    I'd vote for Hillary if she wins the nomination.  It's the Rethugs who say she could win the nomination, but she'll lose the election.  I admit she is polarizing, but she's pretty crafty and could change opinions.

    I really don't want Obama because I think he would lose based on his age and this country still is resistant to a Black president probably more so than a woman president.  

    I have always liked John Edwards and he has been traveling the world and the country adding to his knowledge of both foreign and domestic affairs.  I think he's also charismatic.    

    Wes Clark obviously has a brilliant mind and knowledge in foreign affairs so I'd like him as VP candidate with Edwards as president.  I can't see Clark as the presidential candidate simply because he somehow doesn't seem presidential at least the way he campaigned last time.  Smarts and all, but not enough charisma.

    Edwards understands the plight of the common man & the way us "common citizens" are suffering today I think he could win.    

    No Chance Wesley Clark in 2008 (none / 0) (#47)
    by dart07 on Sun Dec 31, 2006 at 04:20:33 PM EST
    Wesley Clark will not win and if he runs he will lose.  Likely Clark he will run and lose.  Clark has no personality and tries to portray himself as a kind hearted military man.  Clark has no smarts no strategy that would help win the terror war and no positive stance.

    Parent
    i hate to disagree (none / 0) (#37)
    by Stewieeeee on Wed Dec 20, 2006 at 05:59:01 AM EST
    But I find Hillary's political rhetoric and style an embrace of the Politics of Contrast.

    Every time she speaks i am constantly made aware of how different she is from an ideologically driven set of republican policies.

    Hillary Clinton not a team player? (none / 0) (#49)
    by dart07 on Sun Dec 31, 2006 at 04:34:59 PM EST
    So...you are saying Hillary Clinton is not a team player?  If it is not her way she takes her bat and ball and goes home.  The Clinton's have come to own the democrat party.  The dems need new leadership that can exert influence.

    Parent
    A vote for Hilary (none / 0) (#40)
    by Che's Lounge on Wed Dec 20, 2006 at 12:34:08 PM EST
    is a vote for the war. Convince me otherwise.

    (hint: Don't use her record!)

    Hillary a Vote for War (none / 0) (#48)
    by dart07 on Sun Dec 31, 2006 at 04:23:09 PM EST
    Agreed - Hillary is a vote for the war but she will lose either way.  The question is will Hillary Clinton take down the democrat party again like her husband did already?

    Parent
    Electable my...eye (none / 0) (#41)
    by jondee on Wed Dec 20, 2006 at 01:02:10 PM EST
    The woman has been demonized into Lilith the      succubus in minds everyone with even mild red     sympathies.

    They could change the rules to give her electoral victories if she got even one red state vote, and she still wouldnt win. Its no accident that the media and the wingers keep bringing her up as "the candidate": they'd love for her to run.

    Charisma isnt intelligence (none / 0) (#42)
    by jondee on Wed Dec 20, 2006 at 01:23:20 PM EST
    Voting for symbols is what brought us to the place we are at now. As Che said, just look at her record.

    Not Clinton again (none / 0) (#45)
    by dart07 on Sun Dec 31, 2006 at 04:12:50 PM EST
    Hillary will not run and if she runs will be defeated within the first 10 states.