ABC Poll: Clinton Holds N.H. Lead With More Reliable Support

By Jeralyn, Section Hillary Clinton
Posted on Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 09:04:37 PM EST
Tags: 2008 (all tags)

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A new ABC News poll shows Hillary Clinton leading in New Hampshire.

Hillary Clinton is holding off Barack Obama in New Hampshire with a single-digit but seemingly solid lead, scoring more committed and enthusiastic support, higher trust to handle pressing issues and broad margins on leadership, experience and electability.

The chart and numbers are here. (pdf).

Among likely voters in the Democratic primary, Clinton has 35 percent support, Obama 29 percent, John Edwards 17 percent and Bill Richardson 10 percent, with others in the low single digits.

As to why Hillary's support is considered "solid" and "more reliable":

Among those who've definitely decided on their candidate, she leads Obama by a wide 43-28 percent; and among the most enthusiastic likely voters she leads him by 45-24 percent.

Hillary also leads on six of the seven issues polled and has the largest advantage on health care.

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ABC Poll: Clinton Holds N.H. Lead With More Reliable Support | 5 comments (5 topical)

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Double digits? (none / 0) (#1)
by Jgarza on Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 09:33:21 PM EST

Wasn't she in double digits last week, and over 20 ahead the week before that? Isn't this supposed to be her "firewall"? More reliable support huh? Is that the spin her campaign is giving this? She doesn't seem inevitable anymore.

Between her negative attacks, and her campaign being involved with the Obama is a Muslim lies, it sounds like her campaign is self destructing.

wishful thinking (none / 0) (#2)
by Jeralyn on Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 09:35:32 PM EST

on your part, i think.

The Clinton campaign didn't write the analysis, ABC News did. So any spin is on their part, but if you read the five four page analysis, they explain it.


: actually your choice (none / 0) (#4)
by Jgarza on Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 10:19:50 PM EST

of what the part of the analysis you chose to emphasize:

At the same time Obama is taking full advantage of Clinton's weaknesses. A perceived lack of forthrightness continues to dog her; 41 percent in New Hampshire say Clinton's not willing enough to say what she really thinks, twice as many as say that about her chief competitors. And among those people, hardly any -- just 7 percent -- support her, while 41 percent support Obama.

Additionally, a majority of likely voters in the state seek "a new direction and new ideas" -- a page from Obama's playbook -- rather than strength and experience. And "new direction" voters favor Obama over Clinton by 44 percent to 19 percent.
These don't seem like things that are going to swing it in her favor. Seems only logical her supporters would be stronger she has been ahead by double digits, so they have supported her for longer, I don't think that means they are unwilling to change. I bet if you looked at her poll results from when she was in double digits, it was also "strong" but look what happened.
Keep feeding us the inevitable line, Iowa voters hate it, and I imagine when it comes time for everyone else to vote, they wont like it much either.

Polls (none / 0) (#3)
by Jamie on Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 09:38:27 PM EST

Well, the Marist poll that came out today shows her with a 14 point lead. She increased by 1 and Obama fell by 2.

Zogby poll that came out yesterday has her at 11%.

I'm not even sure I trust polls anymore.


: Well, Zogby is a joke (none / 0) (#5)
by DA in LA on Thu Dec 06, 2007 at 01:28:23 PM EST

I don't know anything about Marist, but Zogby has been amazingly off target in the past.
I think the main problem for Hillary is that people have already made up their minds about her. All the rest will now be picking between Obama and the others. Once the others start dropping out, many of them will go to Hillary's opponents. If it turns into a two dog race, she is toast.