Iran won the war. I wonder if people understand that what the United States is fighting for in Iraq is to prop up a Shia-dominated pro-Iran, theocratic state. That we are failing at achieiving a result counter to our own national interests would be ironic if so many good people were not dying as a result of this idiotic policy.
A little over a year ago, the NYTimes wrote:
At the rate that President Bush is going, Iran will be a global superpower before too long. For all of the axis-of-evil rhetoric that has come out of the White House, the reality is that the Bush administration has done more to empower Iran than its most ambitious ayatollah could have dared to imagine. Tehran will be able to look back at the Bush years as a golden era full of boosts from America, its unlikely ally.
. . . Washington has now become dangerously dependent on the good will and constructive behavior of Shiite fundamentalist parties that Iran sheltered, aided and armed during the years that Saddam Hussein ruled Iraq. In recent weeks, neither good will nor constructive behavior has been particularly evident, and if Iran chooses to stir up further trouble to deflect diplomatic pressures on its nuclear program, it could easily do so.
There is now a real risk that Iraq, instead of being turned into an outpost of secular democracy challenging the fanatical rulers of the Islamic republic to its east, could become an Iranian-aligned fundamentalist theocracy, challenging the secular Arab regimes to its west.
Again this understated the case. I wrote in response:
It is no longer a real risk, but a virtual certainty. Is this unexpected? Is it a surprise? Were there no warnings regarding this "risk?" Well, no. The warnings were clear, timely and from people whose opinions should have commanded respect. In the September 26, 2002 Senate Armed Service Committee hearings on Iraq, the following testimony was delivered:
GEN. CLARK: [The] [p]roblem with that argument is that Iran really has had closer linkages with the terrorists in the past and still does, apparently, today, than Iraq does. So that leads you to then ask, well, what will be the impact on Iran? And that's uncertain. But it does -- if you could take these weapons out quickly, then it would cut off that potential source of supply.
SEN. CLELAND: And if you took out Saddam Hussein and the Ba'ath Party, the secularist party, don't the Sunnis and the Shi'ite Muslims make up a majority of the population in Iraq, and wouldn't that give Iran a strong hand there, and we ultimately end up creating a Muslim state, even under democratic institutions?
GEN. CLARK: Yes, sir. I think that there is a substantial risk in the aftermath of the operation that we could end up with a problem which is more intractable than we have today.
One thing we're pretty clear on is that Saddam has a very effective police state apparatus. He doesn't allow challenges to his authority inside that state. When we go in there with a transitional government and a military occupation of some indefinite duration, it's also very likely that if there is an effective al Qaeda left -- and there certainly will be an effective organization of extremists -- they will pour into that country because they must compete for the Iraqi people; the Wahabees with the Sunnis, the Shi'as from Iran working with the Shi'a population. So it's not beyond consideration that we would have a radicalized state, even under a U.S. occupation in the aftermath.
It is ridiculous for anyone to discuss "surrender" dates. Surrender to who? The United States has already granted Iran the future of Iraq. Bush surrendered Iraq to Iran long ago. You want to know when? I'll tell you:
The "anti-war Left" has always understood the problem of Iraq was sectarian in nature. For example, in January 2005, this "anti-war Leftist" wrote:
Is the Iraq Election a success? The early reporting is that there is good turnout among the Shia and Kurds. Does this qualify as success?
. . . This Election is simply, in my estimation, an exercise in pretty pictures. Why? Because Elections are to choose governments, not to celebrate the day. Are the people elected capable of governing Iraq at this time? Without 150,000 U.S. soldiers? Or even with them? I have been accused of gloating by people right HERE because of my focus on the continuing violence. But my focus has been on the realities of governing a land in chaos, in the midst of civil war, with 150,000 U.S. soldiers the only force with the ability to provide security. And this is 2 years after the invasion.
"People's war"? No, sectarian. Civil war. The "anti-war Left" knew about this problem from the beginning. Did the "Best and the Brightest?"
The second problem - "if Americans and Iraqis make the wrong choices" - if, Mr. Biddle?
Biddle writes:
Rapid democratization, meanwhile, could be positively harmful in Iraq. In a Maoist people's war, empowering the population via the ballot box undermines the insurgents' case that the regime is illegitimate and facilitates nonviolent resolution of the inequalities that fuel the conflict. In a communal civil war, however, rapid democratization can further polarize already antagonistic sectarian groups. In an immature polity with little history of compromise, demonizing traditional enemies is an easy -- and dangerous -- way to mobilize support from frightened voters. And as the political scientists Edward Mansfield and Jack Snyder have shown, although mature democracies rarely go to war with other democracies, emerging democracies are unusually bellicose. Political reform is critical to resolving communal wars, but only if it comes at the right time, after some sort of stable communal compromise has begun to take root.
No kidding, Mr. Biddle. But um, you do know the horse is out of the barn already don't you? That Bremer "turned over" authority to Allawi in the summer of 2004? That elections were held in January 2005? That an Iraqi Constitution was rammed through the "Iraq assembly" in the Fall of 2005? That elections were just held "ratifying" that Constitution?
About the Iraq constitution, I wrote:
The BEST result would have been a Sunni rejection of the Constitution that would have taken Iraq back to the drawing board. That result would have demonstrated to the Sunni that they indeed DO have a stake in the political process and some power to exert in that process.
THIS result demonstrates the exact opposite. Indeed, I expect that that the passage of the Constitution will make the "basic security problem in Iraq" worse -- what can Sunnis who argue for participation in the political process and abandonment of the insurgency have to offer in the way of evidence that Sunnis will have any power in that political process? Nothing. On the other hand, had the Sunni been able to reject the Constitution, they would have had a powerful argument for political participation and abandonment of the insurgency.
The result of the constitutional vote was the worst possible outcome - overwhelming Sunni rejection of the Constitution to no political effect. The divide can only worsen now.
Mr. Biddle, to write what you write in March 2006, is rather absurd. Your point would have been worthy in 2004 and 2005. But in 2006? Puhleeaze.
The Best and the Brightest? General Clark said:
BLITZER: General Clark, it would seem that whoever's responsible for this attack, this series of attacks today in Baghdad, trying to make a political statement coming on the heels -- coming on the eve, if you will, of tomorrow's expected signing of this interim constitution, trying to scare people. Is that your sense?
CLARK: Yes. And continuing to show that, despite the presence of the Americans, there is a resistance.
There is a resistance. I think our troops are doing a great job there battling it. But this is still a society that's very much at risk. There's a risk of real civil war in Iraq. And that's what we're playing with. And we knew that, or should have known that, when we went in to occupy the country.
What can explain that our "Best and Brightest," in government, academia, Media, etc., did NOT know it? I am just a poor country lawyer, and me and the other 80,000 "anti-War Left" Kossacks knew it. Why didn't they?
Yes the result of this war has been plain as day for years now. Some are afraid to face it, apparently for the sake of George Bush's feelings. History will not be kind to the "Best and the Brightest" of this generation.
