Democratic Caucuses Open in Nevada: Live Results Thread

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 01:00:00 PM EST
Tags: Nevada 08 (all tags)

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Update: 1:17pm Hillary wins Nevada -- and takes the Las Vegas strip.

Update: 1:05 pm PT: Hillary wins the Bellagio and the Tropicana caucuses. She has four of nine of the at-large caucuses so far.

Update: 1:00pm PT 60% of precincts reporting and Hillary leads Obama 50% to 45%. Interestingly, with 58% of Clark County in, Hillary is leading Obama 55% to 42%.

Update: 12:51 pm PT Obama has left Las Vegas for Chicago. He won't be making any remarks. I'd say that means he doesn't expect to win. 25% of precincts are in and Hillary is leading but not enough votes in yet to call the race.

More below:

Update (12:46pm PT): Hillary overwhelms Obama at Paris, Las Vegas. Obama wins by a nose (and one delegate) at Ceasar's.

Update: Live statewide results here. First caucus result comes in. Elko District 35, it's for Obama. You can follow the Clark County results live, including at-large caucuses here.

Turnout seems all over the place. At the caucus at Caesar's Palace where CNN cameras are, they say there are 164 people. But the Bellagio caucus estimate is 1,000 people.

***

Doors are open for the Democratic caucuses in Nevada. They start at 11:30 am PT. Results will come in between 12pm and 1pm PT. The networks will reveal their entrance polling results any minute.

You can follow the results live and by county here. For a map and explanation of Las Vegas by the county numbers, go here. Updates below: Harry Reid is at his caucus. He says he's remaining uncommitted. Update: His caucus went for Hillary.

Bill Clinton made a last minute stop at the Mirage, one of the at-large casino caucus sites. He also visited inside the caucus at the Rio.

Here's an early turnout report from observers at a few Democratic caucuses.

< Mitt Romney Wins Nevada Caucus, Ron Paul and McCain Close | Hillary Wins Nevada ; Takes the Las Vegas Strip >

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Democratic Caucuses Open in Nevada: Live Results Thread | 20 comments (20 topical)

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Entrance polls per CNN (none / 0) (#1)
by andgarden on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:38:45 PM EST

say Hillary by about 10%.

: But according the the polling geniuses at dkos (none / 0) (#3)
by andgarden on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:41:17 PM EST

they can't possibly be right. . .

Entrance Poll (none / 0) (#2)
by BDB on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:40:29 PM EST

If the entrance poll is even close to right (a huge if), it looks like Clinton's day. Via CNN, Clinton wins every income category, so basically Clinton wins.

One of the things that stood out for me is that Obama barely won independent (37-35), but Clinton beat him handily among Democrats (52-33). Also, while Obama won the change label (53-29), Clinton won on every other candidate quality - cares about people (42-30), experience (89-3, wow!), and electability (51-28).

The demos do not appear to favor Obama, only 25% were under 44. He crushed Clinton 57-33 among 18-29 year-olds, but the entrance poll as these as only 11% of all caucus goers. Compare to Clinton's advantage on over 60s (61-24) and the poll has them at 39%.

If Obama pulls this out, these polls are screwier than the ones in NH.

I don't see how he does (none / 0) (#4)
by andgarden on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:43:00 PM EST

I've never seen released epoll numbers that so far off.


Yeah (none / 0) (#5)
by TheRealFrank on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:45:21 PM EST

The entrance polls have Clinton 48, Obama 33. That looks like a Clinton win.

If she wins, look at that 59% female voters turnout.. and the 60+ age turnout is also high. I'm guessing women (and especially older women) are coming through for her.


exit polls (none / 0) (#6)
by mindfulmission on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:48:47 PM EST

Haven't we learned yet that exit polls are a joke?

Have we forgotten NH this quickly?


: The NH exit polls were right (none / 0) (#9)
by andgarden on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:49:32 PM EST

: No (none / 0) (#10)
by BDB on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:50:00 PM EST

The exit polls in NH were very close to being right. The polls before the actual voting were way off.

: It's entrance polls (none / 0) (#12)
by TheRealFrank on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:53:59 PM EST

Sure, they might be a ways off from the actual result (especially since "viability" and arm-twisting are factors in caucuses), but they do give a general idea of who the situation is favorable to. And that looks to be Clinton.
Right now it looks like she won't win big, but she'll probably take it.

Agh! (none / 0) (#7)
by BDB on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:49:26 PM EST

Stupid CNN and it's confusing website. Those age numbers are wrong because they aren't based on the entrance poll, they are based on the actual vote (why they're listed under the "Full Entrance Poll Results" tab, I have no idea.


Bellagio (none / 0) (#8)
by TheRealFrank on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:49:30 PM EST

The screwy thing about caucuses: 1,000 people can show up there, or 2,000, or 5,000.. but the number won't matter, since the number of delagates is pre-assigned per caucus.

That's my main (none / 0) (#11)
by RalphB on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:53:19 PM EST

problem with caucuses. They are undemocratic.


: Yeah (none / 0) (#14)
by TheRealFrank on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:55:45 PM EST

They suck. I wish there were federal rules for primaries that forces all states to have the same rules (one person one vote, and consistency for whether independents can vote or not). But oh well.

Fodder for future blogging, statisticians, op ed (none / 0) (#13)
by oculus on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:54:51 PM EST

writers et al.: how are the differing results between the various casino caucus sites explained?

not that different (none / 0) (#18)
by Jeralyn on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:20:00 PM EST

she won at least 5 of 9 of the at large caucuses.


: I hesitate to ask this question, but do you have (none / 0) (#19)
by oculus on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:29:13 PM EST

any information on what percentage of Hispanic/Latino population of NV was registered to vote and whether proof of citizenship is required to register?

Now, Edwards is "toast." (none / 0) (#15)
by oculus on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:59:25 PM EST

Edwards? (none / 0) (#16)
by womanwarrior on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 02:59:42 PM EST

Did he get any votes, or was he spirited off the planet? I do not think it is time to make this a two person race like the networks, just yet.

msnbc calls it for hillary (none / 0) (#17)
by andreww on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:10:40 PM EST

Will Obama find a new chief speech writer? (none / 0) (#20)
by oculus on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:31:02 PM EST

NYT PROFILE