Nevada Predictions and Caucus Open Thread

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 08:00:00 AM EST
Tags: Nevada 08 (all tags)

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Anyone have a prediction for the Nevada caucus results?

I think Hillary Clinton will win. The Washington Post reports Obama's senior campaign advisor David Axelrod may be leaning towards that view as well:

"Senator Clinton has some real structural advantages here," said Obama senior adviser David Axelrod. "She started off with a strong lead. They've run a very, very aggressive campaign. We recognize that there are significant barriers. I think it's going to be a very competitive race, but I think she has an edge going in."

I hope Edwards makes a strong showing. I'd really like him to stay in the race.

Poll below.

Update [2008-1-19 13:24:46 by Big Tent Democrat]: Romney wins Nevada.

< Nevada Voters By the Numbers | Nevada and Disenfrancisement of Religious Voters >

Poll

Votes: 16
Results	\|	Other Polls

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Nevada Predictions and Caucus Open Thread | 19 comments (19 topical)

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Edwards (5.00 / 2) (#19)
by athyrio on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 11:43:01 AM EST

I agree that a strong Edwards showing would be good too, and I would love a Clinton/Edwards ticket....That would prefectly represent my viewpoint....But I doubt that would happen...who knows....

The expectations game (none / 0) (#1)
by TheRealFrank on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 05:41:26 AM EST

I see that Axelrod is playing the expectations game. The Obama campaign is downplaying the possibility of a win to try to get some extra mileage out of the headlines should they win. Their campaign relies more on excitement and momentum then Clinton's, so they want those headlines. Especially since there have been headlines with "black voters going for Obama" for days now, and the polls have him up by about 10 points in SC. So an SC win won't be a surprise at all at this point.

I have absolutely no idea who will "win". Strange how we (and especially the press) are obsessed with "wins", when it's all proportional, and there's really no such thing. But anyway.

A NV Loss Devastating For Obama (none / 0) (#2)
by JoeCHI on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 06:46:41 AM EST

Make no mistake, with the union endorsements, and the coercive nature of the caucuses themselves, Obama should win handily.

If he doesn't, it will be devastating for his campaign.

Further, the bump that Clinton might receive from upsetting Obama a second time might be enough to pick off a few African Americans from Obama in SC as well as a few whites from Edwards to make her competitive there.

: Mark Penn spin (none / 0) (#4)
by Aaron on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 07:32:49 AM EST

Yeah that's right, in a state where Hillary has been ahead since the race started, it's going to be devastating for Obama if he loses.
It's like the talking points coming out of Mark Penn's mouth magically appear on this site all the time.
Laughable.

Hillary plays the sympathy card (none / 0) (#3)
by Aaron on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 07:30:23 AM EST

I wonder how many women will vote for Hillary Clinton simply because her husband cheated on her, and they can relate to that painful experience.

I have no doubt that this tactic is effective, on an unconscious level for many women, but I wonder about the ethics of such an approach.

Hillary Clinton speaks of her pain and shame at the Monica Lewinsky scandal

"But I had to decide what I ought to do, I think it is so important to be able to hear yourself at a moment when it is hard . . . there are so many times when you really have to listen to yourself

♦	Hillary Clinton	68%
♦	Barack Obama	0%
♦	John Edwards	0%
♦	Tie between Hillary and Obama -- or close to it	25%
♦	Tie between Hillary and Edwards	6%
♦	Tie between Obama and Edwards	0%
♦	None of the above	0%