Nevada Predictions and Caucus Open Thread

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 08:00:00 AM EST
Tags: Nevada 08 (all tags)

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Anyone have a prediction for the Nevada caucus results?

I think Hillary Clinton will win. The Washington Post reports Obama's senior campaign advisor David Axelrod may be leaning towards that view as well:

"Senator Clinton has some real structural advantages here," said Obama senior adviser David Axelrod. "She started off with a strong lead. They've run a very, very aggressive campaign. We recognize that there are significant barriers. I think it's going to be a very competitive race, but I think she has an edge going in."

I hope Edwards makes a strong showing. I'd really like him to stay in the race.

Poll below.

Update [2008-1-19 13:24:46 by Big Tent Democrat]: Romney wins Nevada.

< Nevada Voters By the Numbers | Nevada and Disenfrancisement of Religious Voters >

Poll

Votes: 16
Results	\|	Other Polls

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Nevada Predictions and Caucus Open Thread | 19 comments (19 topical)

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Edwards (5.00 / 2) (#19)
by athyrio on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 11:43:01 AM EST

I agree that a strong Edwards showing would be good too, and I would love a Clinton/Edwards ticket....That would prefectly represent my viewpoint....But I doubt that would happen...who knows....

The expectations game (none / 0) (#1)
by TheRealFrank on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 05:41:26 AM EST

I see that Axelrod is playing the expectations game. The Obama campaign is downplaying the possibility of a win to try to get some extra mileage out of the headlines should they win. Their campaign relies more on excitement and momentum then Clinton's, so they want those headlines. Especially since there have been headlines with "black voters going for Obama" for days now, and the polls have him up by about 10 points in SC. So an SC win won't be a surprise at all at this point.

I have absolutely no idea who will "win". Strange how we (and especially the press) are obsessed with "wins", when it's all proportional, and there's really no such thing. But anyway.

A NV Loss Devastating For Obama (none / 0) (#2)
by JoeCHI on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 06:46:41 AM EST

Make no mistake, with the union endorsements, and the coercive nature of the caucuses themselves, Obama should win handily.

If he doesn't, it will be devastating for his campaign.

Further, the bump that Clinton might receive from upsetting Obama a second time might be enough to pick off a few African Americans from Obama in SC as well as a few whites from Edwards to make her competitive there.

: Mark Penn spin (none / 0) (#4)
by Aaron on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 07:32:49 AM EST

Yeah that's right, in a state where Hillary has been ahead since the race started, it's going to be devastating for Obama if he loses.
It's like the talking points coming out of Mark Penn's mouth magically appear on this site all the time.
Laughable.

Hillary plays the sympathy card (none / 0) (#3)
by Aaron on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 07:30:23 AM EST

I wonder how many women will vote for Hillary Clinton simply because her husband cheated on her, and they can relate to that painful experience.

I have no doubt that this tactic is effective, on an unconscious level for many women, but I wonder about the ethics of such an approach.

Hillary Clinton speaks of her pain and shame at the Monica Lewinsky scandal

"But I had to decide what I ought to do, I think it is so important to be able to hear yourself at a moment when it is hard . . . there are so many times when you really have to listen to yourself."

Hillary wants you to listen to yourselves ladies, what you think she means by that?

You are as bad as Tweety. (5.00 / 2) (#5)
by Molly Bloom on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 08:17:23 AM EST

: Obamania Has Him GOod (none / 0) (#12)
by squeaky on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 10:37:32 AM EST

Once the disease passes he will be better, Tweety has no excuse, and will always be a joke.

I think we all know what she meant (5.00 / 3) (#10)
by Jeralyn on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 10:26:59 AM EST

and she's right. That you don't says more about you than her.

Mark Penn has not commented here and the quote is by Axelrod who works for Obama.

The reason she was asked about Monica is because of the 10th anniversary of it being in the news, it was all over Drudge.


Hillary, trapped by the sexist mindset. (none / 0) (#6)
by Aaron on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 09:26:54 AM EST

What's sexist is a woman who buys into the Victorian era belief that she should feel shame and pain because her man chose to sleep with another woman. Hillary's ideas are straight out of the post 1960s sexual revolution past, an era that taught women to believe that it is somehow there failure when a male does what the human male primates are genetically programmed by evolution to do, breed with as many females as possible.

Hillary's outdated perceptions are indicative of the trap many women find themselves in, the belief that committed relationships are about ownership and that marriage vows and fidelity are a form of property rights over women and men which hold them in a kind of willing bondage. If Hillary's thinking were genuinely progressive then she would encourage and support her husband in his desire to fulfill his most basic needs.

But in our society a woman is forced to feel betrayed and diminished when her husband has a sexual encounter with another woman. It's an inescapable trap that places your own self-worth and self-esteem in the hands of another. It's always unwise to give over control of aspects of your inner self to another because it relinquishes mastery of the self, leaving any man or woman who buys into this construct at the mercy of the actions of another. It's a ridiculous outdated construct that we all need to put behind us, but most especially women need to overcome if they are ever to achieve true equity with men in Western society.

Wow Aaron...I've walked in her shoes. (5.00 / 3) (#9)
by Teresa on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 10:20:02 AM EST

She shouldn't feel pain but instead should encourage him to fill his basic needs? You are either joking or flat out nuts.


This is a reply to you Molly (none / 0) (#7)
by Aaron on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 09:29:33 AM EST

By the way.


I think women posting here (4.33 / 3) (#8)
by Molly Bloom on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 10:02:26 AM EST

would tell you to quit while you are merely behind and not to keep digging yourself into a deeper hole.

I don't pretend to speak for all, but I know I think you should quit digging yourself into a deeper hole. You do neither your reputation nor your preferred candidate any good.


totally agreed Molly (5.00 / 3) (#11)
by Jeralyn on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 10:28:43 AM EST

and Aaron, this thread is about predictions, please get back on topic.


The title says open thread right? (none / 0) (#15)
by Aaron on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 10:54:24 AM EST

And I'm just responding to the remarks that were directed at me.


: it says caucus open thread (5.00 / 1) (#18)
by Jeralyn on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 11:12:47 AM EST

meaning an open thread on all caucus topics. Let's move on now.

Quit what, telling the truth? (none / 0) (#13)
by Aaron on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 10:51:23 AM EST

I don't engage in in debate on the Internet in hopes of making friends, or trying to convince anyone.

And I'm not the one that raised this issue, Hillary chose to parade her personal life with her husband before all the world on TV, a personal life that wound up doing a great deal of damage to this country indirectly.

Hillary obviously has problems in her relationship with bill, and we all need to ask ourselves do we really want unresolved personal problems between a husband and wife interfering with the operation of the government, yet again. Because that's exactly what happened the last time around, they allowed their personal problems to affect all of us and the course of this country's history.

It could be argued that without the Monica Lewinsky incident, George Bush is never elected.

So you can blame the messenger, and attack me for pointing out some of these realities, but that isn't going to make them go away. You may not want to look at these issues, or be familiar with modern feminist theory for that matter, but to imply that I'm only raising this issue for partisan political reasons is disingenuous. The Clintons come with a mountain of baggage personal and political, I don't see how anyone can deny that.

But hey, you're free to keep telling yourself that my arguments have no merit, but it's funny how many of you didn't think so before this election cycle. So what has happened, have I changed, or are you engaging in self-deception?

I advise you to think about it.


: future off topic comments here will be deleted (5.00 / 2) (#14)
by Jeralyn on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 10:53:54 AM EST

you've made your point three times now. Please get back on topic. This is caucus day, we want predictions here and not rants against Hillary by an Obama supporter. Last warning.

: To all candidate partisans (5.00 / 2) (#17)
by Molly Bloom on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 11:06:23 AM EST

Please think before your post. People are influenced by arguments of their friends and neighbors. Is your post helping or hurting your candidate?
I would avoid personal attacks on your preferred candidate's opponents. Save it for the enemy.

Thanks for the Update (none / 0) (#20)
by Jeralyn on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 12:29:27 PM EST

Big Tent, I just posted a new thread on Romney.

♦	Hillary Clinton	68%
♦	Barack Obama	0%
♦	John Edwards	0%
♦	Tie between Hillary and Obama -- or close to it	25%
♦	Tie between Hillary and Edwards	6%
♦	Tie between Obama and Edwards	0%
♦	None of the above	0%