The Impact of McCain's South Carolina Win

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 08:54:51 PM EST
Tags: South Carolina (all tags)

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Mike Huckabee gave a very gracious speech after the South Carolina Republican primary was called for John McCain.

I've read a lot of comments wanting McCain to lose in S.C. because he'd be tougher for a Democrat to beat.

I disagree. I don't think the S.C. results means McCain will win the Republican nomination. McCain will face a tough battle in Florida and tougher ones on Feb. 5. If Huckabee and Romney aren't considered serious contenders by then, it will be McCain and Giuliani. I think Republicans will choose Rudy.

The last thing I want is for Giuliani to have a viable shot at the Presidency. He could be a far a more difficult ultimate opponent than McCain.

My prediction: McCain's lead won't last. He's too old and the polar opposite of change that is so important to voters. The Tsunami states of Feb. 5 won't go for him.

I'm hoping Huckabee and Romney do well in Florida and on Feb. 5. Anybody but Rudy.

< South Carolina Primary Open Thread: McCain Wins | The Iowa/Nevada Caucus Systems Disenfranchises Voters >

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The Impact of McCain's South Carolina Win | 20 comments (20 topical)

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John McCain (5.00 / 1) (#3)
by Jeralyn on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 09:14:00 PM EST

puts me to sleep. And he had a telepromter tonight.

If (none / 0) (#4)
by athyrio on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 09:27:10 PM EST

He says "my friends" one more time I shall throw up.....sounds like a used car salesman...


: maybe that's why I call him (5.00 / 1) (#6)
by Jeralyn on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 09:33:03 PM EST

and Fred Thompson "my grandfather's oldsmobile."

The issue was and is (1.00 / 1) (#9)
by jimakaPPJ on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 09:42:15 PM EST

national security. Only Rudy can touch McCain on that issue.

Either causes the Demos to worry.

After 2006 who would have thought we have a Pres race that is essentially a toss up.

You can thank Nancy and Harry.

The Impact of McCain's South Carolina Win (none / 0) (#1)
by GOPmurderedconscience on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 08:58:19 PM EST

McCain is now the front runner among Republicans. He will probably win FL and I guess CA, AZ and NJ. His only serious competitor is Romney but it's hard to see where he will get a big win besides UT and ID.

I dunno J (none / 0) (#2)
by andgarden on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 09:10:57 PM EST

The head-to-heads give me serious concerns about running against him.

SUSA says that Hillary and Obama win Virginia, of all places, against everyone but him.

McCain will likely win the nomination (none / 0) (#5)
by Aaron on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 09:30:04 PM EST

Because Carolina is likely to consolidate his lead which already has everyone else beaten by almost 10 points according to the RCP average.

I mean come on his only real competition is Romney the empty hairdo. You guys don't really think a Rudy is going to make a comeback do you?

The Republicans want to win the presidency, and if Hillary gets the nomination, they'll be playing up John McCain as a likable old war veteran, up against Hillary as the wicked witch of the liberal West.

That's a fight the Republicans want to have, and the way Clintons negatives are mounting, it's a fight they have a real chance of winning.

Re "and the way Clintons (none / 0) (#7)
by oculus on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 09:36:59 PM EST

negatives are mounting":

Link?

Also, is that "Clintons" plural or "Hillary Clinton's negatives"?


That's Clinton's plural (none / 0) (#13)
by Aaron on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 10:05:41 PM EST

Because America is buying the package, and Bill Clinton has become the campaign's attack dog. Apparently there thinking is that his positives are high enough that he can take the negative hits and it won't translate directly to Hillary Clinton, a good short-term strategy that's sure to come back to bite the Clintons in the national election.

It's a package deal as everyone knows.

And I post enough links here, they're not appreciated, so why should I bother. Look it up yourself or just stick your head in the sand and pretend like it isn't happening.


: Bad form, or as KO would say: ad hominem (none / 0) (#15)
by oculus on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 10:09:44 PM EST

It's the Economy (none / 0) (#11)
by PlayInPeoria on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 09:44:37 PM EST

The Reps are going to have a battle any Dem that wins the primary.

The Oct. 19, 1987, when the Dow Jones industrial average dropped 508 points, or 22.6 percent, in the biggest one-day loss in history will be replaced in the near future.

Jan 19th

Kramer says the Dow will plunge 2000 points and major Mortgage companies will go belly up in the next couple of weeks. Sadly when asked if any candidates were talking about it he said no. So even though were looking at complete financial meltdown he still values his job more then speaking the truth about Ron Paul.

I do NOT believe Washington can move fast enough on this one. The stimulus package will be to late. Once the economy goes into a deep recession... the Reps are out of here. Will not matter who runs against Sen Clinton.


: Check is in the mail. . (none / 0) (#16)
by oculus on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 10:10:29 PM EST

If John McCain wins the nomination, (none / 0) (#8)
by oculus on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 09:38:37 PM EST

his VP running mate may make or break him in the GE due to McCain's age.

: FYI (none / 0) (#10)
by athyrio on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 09:43:02 PM EST

from the looks of the popular vote in Nevada, Hillary's negatives arent mounting at all...She won!!!....Even if Obama won't say it, I congratulate Hillary on a superb win....He is just looking more and more like he is pouting....

2 cents (none / 0) (#12)
by sef on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 09:54:56 PM EST

Polling data seems to suggest that HRC's negatives are dropping, positives are going up.

McCain is hated by the GOP establishment so he has a serious money issue going forward.

Tne hardest GOP'er to beat is Rudy, followed by Huck (he motivates the evangelicals in enough states to get to 270 even if the coasters loathe him), followed by McPain. I personally want Mitt as he is the easiest GOPer to pick off and could well lose 49 states.

The thing about Giuliani (none / 0) (#14)
by chemoelectric on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 10:09:27 PM EST

The thing about Giuliani is that for a long time we have had people saying that his popularity would plummet after people got a better look at him, and then that happened. Josh Marshall has been following Giuliani's decline in the polls and it is stunning.

What an incredible bunch of goofballs the "Republicans" have going.

More about Giuliani (none / 0) (#17)
by chemoelectric on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 10:14:51 PM EST

Josh Marshall is reporting that Giuliani got 2% in SC while Ron Paul got 4%.

Just thinking out loud (none / 0) (#18)
by Mark Adams on Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 10:16:38 PM EST

So don't crucify me too much -- and of course this leads into why McCain is a danger to win in the General.

He's not a chicken-hawk.

So unlike the current regime he's not going to tolerate our soldiers getting killed for no damn good reason -- or provoke anyone else needlessly. His rhetoric notwithstanding, he'll end the war quicker that the lunatic Giuliani or the profit minded Romney, or the Dominionist Huckabee and his apocalyptic desires.

If there is a risk that the GOPers could some how keep the white house, I'd rather have McCain in there than any of the others in their freak show.

If you want them to pick someone sure to lose no matter what happens, it's Ron Paul you should hope for. Cuz that guy can't win unless we all end up in line at the soup kitchen before November, in which case it won't matter who's president.

Rudy has no chance. (none / 0) (#19)
by DA in LA on Sun Jan 20, 2008 at 01:31:23 AM EST

The guy's dead.

How about this scenario? No one has enough delegates to take the nomination outright going into the convention. They then pick Jeb Bush.

"change" (none / 0) (#21)
by diogenes on Sun Jan 20, 2008 at 10:08:07 PM EST

The pepple who want change want a change from "politics as usual". Are they going to support a rerun of Clintonian poll-driven political statements, or are they going to support McCain who has reverted to his style of the straight talk express? No one really will believe Hillary's talk of pulling out of Iraq.
In the primaries, a lot of the independents in New Hampshire were torn between Obama and McCain. The Clinton's attack machine against Obama will only create a sour feeling. These independents would never vote for a churlish Giuliani or a fundamentalist Huckabee.
McCain-Lieberman would be an interesting unity/fusion ticket; Democratic Jews might vote for that ticket, but white antisemites will never vote for Hillary and she's already got the votes of the black antisemites sewed up if she beats Obama.