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Constructing Your Own Nomination Reality

is what Chris Bowers does here:
John McCain has finished second or lower among Republicans in all five states that have held a Republican presidential nominating contest so far. On the other side of the aisle, Barack Obama has finished first, or tied for first, among projected delegates to the Democratic national convention in all three states that have held nominating contests for Democratic national convention delegates so far. Despite this, John McCain is considered the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, while Barack Obama is not considered the frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination. Why is this? . . . [MORE]

. . . The reason is because the reality agreed to by virtually all participants in American presidential nominating contests--almost every reporter, pundit, candidate, campaign staffer, donor, volunteer and voter--is an arbitrary construct not in line with the by-laws of the political parties that will actually nominate candidates.

This wailing, as Chris, to his credit admits, comes a little late in the game, and is rather convenient to forward Barack Obama's shameless attempted spin of the Nevada caucus results. Like Bill Clinton on the unfairness of the caucus system. this conversion is suspiciously timed. I am positive, yes I am, that if the shoe were on the other foot, Chris would not be bemoaning this state of affairs.

Nor is Chris really playing by his own rules. As a Open Left commenter notes:

The primary/caucus process is totally screwed up and the media has their own agenda . . . for setting expectations. But you're also making up your own rules. It appears that primary expectations are a bit like Calvinball. First of all, you use two different points of reference to describe how the media sets it's narrative for the primaries. McCain loses among GOPers and Obama wins delegates. . . . Well, if we want to stick to "the by-laws" we should be counting superdelegates as CBS, ABC, and CNN all count superdelegates in their count. Here's their count from Political Wire: ABC News: * Democrats: Clinton 203, Obama 148, Edwards 43 * Republicans: Romney 59, Huckabee 40, McCain 36 CNN: * Democrats: Clinton 210, Obama 123, Edwards 52 * Republicans: Romney 72, McCain 38, Huckabee 29 CBS News: * Democrats: Clinton 231, Obama 126, Edwards 59 * Republicans: Romney 35, McCain 32, Huckabee 7 So you're certainly right that Romney is the front runner for GOP nod, but you're wrong about Obama. He does poorly among Democrats and he's behind in the delegate race (you know, those "by-laws").

It galls me when folks get all high and mighty when what they are doing is simply spinning reality to meet their own desires.

The caucus system is an unfair joke. It has always been. It did not reflect the will of the voters in Iowa or Nevada. It is an outrage. It is a form of voter disenfranchisement. My belief on this is not convenient to my support for any candidate. I said so long ago.

But too many now are outraged by the actions of the candidate they oppose, exhibiting high moral dudgeon about this "atrocity" or other, ignoring all the while, are even worse, sometimes winking with a smile when their candidate does it.

No one is perfectly objective. But what passes for honesty from candidate supporters these days is ridiculous. It will be good when the silly season ends and people get back to being serious observers of politics, policy and campaigns. Cuz right now, it ain't happening.

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  • Display: Sort:
    Eli Manning (5.00 / 1) (#4)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Jan 20, 2008 at 09:16:45 PM EST
    The new Comeback Kid.

    Go GIANTS!

    This lurker likes (5.00 / 1) (#8)
    by carolyn13 on Sun Jan 20, 2008 at 09:54:50 PM EST
    this site too and thinks you are doing a good job, BTD. You've always been good at calling BS when you see and I'm glad I found you again.

    Yes. Some are. (5.00 / 1) (#11)
    by jen on Sun Jan 20, 2008 at 11:50:01 PM EST
    I was a precinct captain for Clinton at our caucus yesterday in Washoe County. I live in a very small, very RED, very wealthy resort town. Not many Dems here. (Guesstimate -- probably about 60-65% Republic.)

    (CW here in NV -- the only way a Dem can win is to take Clark County, (Vegas), by a large margin. The rest of the State is pretty red.)

    At our training meeting, one of the other precinct captains said her husband, a Republic, was coming to the caucus to re-register Dem to caucus for Obama. His reason: to stop Hillary. Said he would not vote for any Dem in the GE. (He did come and did caucus for Obama.)

    At the caucus, Saturday morning when they opened the doors it was chaos. We had 8 precincts caucusing in one location and many didn't know which precinct they were in. (There was a map, but the divisions were pretty vague.)

    The lines at the precinct tables were long with Republics and Indys re-registering Dem to participate. From the stickers and buttons they wore, you could see most of them were there for Obama.

    Now of course we didn't ask them if they would vote for him in the GE if he were the nominee, but  one really has to wonder.

    Obama won Washoe County 47% to clinton's 33% according to CNN's poll results.

    The only way we'll know what the Republics and Indys are up to is if Obama wins the nomination. If they vote for him in the GE, and the Dems vote for him, he should win NV in an unprecedented landslide.

    But caucuses really are a sick joke. Example: One precinct got 7 delegates. They had 104 total attendees. After re-alignment, 68 were for Obama and 36 for Clinton. The caucus chair did the math calculation on the blackboard and it came out to Obama 4.31 and Clinton 2.43. The whole numbers gave Obama 4 delegates and Clinton 2. That left 1 delegate to assign and to do that they use the fractions. Since Obama had .31 and Clinton had .43, the extra delegate went to Clinton. So in that precinct Obama got 4 delegates and Clinton got 3. In almost every precinct, Obama had nearly twice the number of supporters as Clinton, yet in each precinct they either got the same number of delegates or Obama got 1 more than Clinton.

    Thanks for articulating (none / 0) (#1)
    by Coral on Sun Jan 20, 2008 at 08:55:00 PM EST
    what I felt when I saw that post by Bowers on Open Left.

    ElectoPundit: Back and forth could help Obama (none / 0) (#2)
    by ElectoPundit on Sun Jan 20, 2008 at 09:00:27 PM EST
    ElectoPundit: Back and Forth Could Help Obama
    http://electopundit.blogspot.com/2008/01/one-back-and-forth-dynamic-that-could.html

    Many are trying to envision where this Democratic campaign could be headed. The most common theme and most consistent message from voters so far seems to be this: we like both of these candidates for various reasons, and we want to consider them carefully and on our own terms... don't pressure us into taking one of them before we're ready and if you do, we'll vote for the underdog.

    This campaign could be divided into three phases until now. There was the "Clinton frontrunner" phase up until just before Iowa, and then after Iowa the 2nd phase was the very short "Obama Frontrunner" phase. After New Hampshire it was perhaps a "dead heat, no frontrunner" phase that I think may now be ending. If we're back into a "Clinton frontrunner" phase again... what does that mean for the campaign? Will Hillary and Bill wither under the spotlight?

    Look at the behavior of the voters so far:

    Everyone said if Hillary won Iowa, it was over, they voted for Obama.

    Everyone said if Obama won New Hampshire, it was over, they voted for Clinton.

    The Clintons and the media tried to say Obama should win Nevada because the culinary union was pressuring members, the members felt the pressure and they resisted, they voted for Clinton.

    So where is that conventional wisdom/media dialogue going decisively after Nevada? I think the current line is: "the Clintons are inevitable, Obama may win in South Carolina, but that's just the African-American vote, she's going to win big on February 5th." There's going to be two and a half weeks of this dialogue again in the press for the first time since before Iowa. If Obama had won Nevada and South Carolina, the "dead heat" phase would have continued. But Nevada shifts that, and I think this has significant potential to swing the race back in Obama's favor.

    One thing is clear, the focus for the next two weeks will be on Hillary Clinton, what type of presidency she would have, what Bill's role would be, their marital issues, etc. February 5th will now fundamentally be a referendum on her and it could be a decision too big for either candidate to come back from as they have had the ability to do so far in this campaign.

    Democratic Delegate Race: http://electopundit.blogspot.com/2008/01/democratic-delegate-race.html

    Republican Delegate Race: http://electopundit.blogspot.com/2008/01/republican-delegate-race.html


    IMO (none / 0) (#3)
    by athyrio on Sun Jan 20, 2008 at 09:09:58 PM EST
    If the MSM can keep up the divide and conquer routine they so far have shown the democratic party, we will all be in big trouble and the republicans will swoop in and win the election...MSM is stirring the pot for all its worth....The only way a republican can win is if they somehow convince the democrats to nominate Obama who they perceive to be the weakest and easiest to defeat....

    We're not doing a bad job of it ourselves (none / 0) (#15)
    by DA in LA on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 01:38:16 AM EST
    Oh Come On Now - You Can't Use FACTS (none / 0) (#5)
    by MO Blue on Sun Jan 20, 2008 at 09:21:56 PM EST
    that don't fit the agenda of Obama as the Presidential front runner. After all, we are in ObamaWorld now and we create our own reality.

    MO Blue (5.00 / 3) (#6)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Jan 20, 2008 at 09:29:10 PM EST
    I know it gets frustrating but for me at least I will keep calling out the Netroots/blogs for what I believe are their failures, just as I did all of 2007 on Iraq and other issues.

    Believe me, I have lost a lot of "friends" in the blogs over the past year and a half.

    Parent

    which is why (5.00 / 2) (#7)
    by athyrio on Sun Jan 20, 2008 at 09:33:23 PM EST
    I love this web site and your fair commentation about the political scene....You are serving a good purpose and we need more just like you...Any "friend" that would terminate a friendship for that was never a true friend to begin with ....Keep up the good work....You are appreciated....:-)

    Parent
    I Think I'm More Worried Than Frustrated (5.00 / 2) (#9)
    by MO Blue on Sun Jan 20, 2008 at 10:00:33 PM EST
    We have spent almost 8 years listening to the Republican spin machine and the "kool aid drinkers" play so fast and loose with the truth about BushCo that the word no longer has any meaning. Now I see the same thing happening and we are developing our own brand of "kool aid drinkers" for Obama. His supporters seem to have almost no objectivity where he is concerned. Even if we elect a Democratic president, IMO we will still have to hold his/her feet to the fire if we want to accomplish our goals. If that president is Obama, I'm not sure that they would be willing to do that since they have invested so much of themselves in him. Many of them have become more Obama supporters, than Democrats or Progressives.

    Hopefully this is just temporary insanity and will be cured after the primaries.

    I appreciate what you have been trying to do and I know it has been difficult for you in may ways.  

    Parent

    Tonight a good friend whose pimary preference (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by oculus on Sun Jan 20, 2008 at 11:58:11 PM EST
    was unknown to me stated she will vote for Hillary clinton as Barack Obama's speaking of change has no meaning for her.  

    Parent
    I have no vote that matters yet (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by Militarytracy on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 02:37:37 PM EST
    but when Obama speaks of change it means nothing to me either.  Clinton speaks more tangibly and most importantly to me I have seen her in the past sitting on the Armed Services Committee and speaking extremely mature and knowingly about matters that committee deals with.  It is one of my husband's main draws to her I think.  He respected and rooted for Dodd a lot as well for the same reason.  As Clinton's wins tally up the secret Clinton adoring soldier person seems to have a fluttering heart.  It's sad to watch.  He said the other day, "I wonder if she remembers meeting me in Ireland?"........shallow and fawning ;)

    Parent
    The opposite of a "Hillary Hater." (5.00 / 1) (#20)
    by oculus on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 02:40:33 PM EST
    Totally (none / 0) (#21)
    by Militarytracy on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 02:45:48 PM EST
    Bill had better look out if he's thinking about stepping out again.  Someone could take his place on the pillow ;)  I wonder if I can count Hillary's income in my alimony?

    Parent
    Oh, but she'll never leave Bill. (none / 0) (#22)
    by oculus on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 04:59:30 PM EST
    Fi upon him, I say. He spurned San Diego (none / 0) (#12)
    by oculus on Sun Jan 20, 2008 at 11:55:11 PM EST
    Chargers (smart move on his part, as it turned out).  

    Parent
    Somestimes (none / 0) (#10)
    by athyrio on Sun Jan 20, 2008 at 10:18:33 PM EST
    I wonder if some of the Obama supporters are really republicans posting to stir the pot....

    Yes (none / 0) (#14)
    by squeaky on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 12:10:45 AM EST
    The caucus system is an unfair joke. It has always been. It did not reflect the will of the voters in Iowa or Nevada. It is an outrage. It is a form of voter disenfranchisement.

    The same goes for the Electorial College. Too many States benefit for it to ever to change.

    I'll post on Edwards (none / 0) (#16)
    by CanyonWren on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 01:39:45 AM EST
    since noone else is here--I apologize if it's not a welcome topic, hard to tell.

    He's tanked, and judging from his statement today about him being the "only one" who can run against McCain in SC because of McCain's campaign finance reform, and Edwards not taking a dime from lobbyists, plus bringing up poll numbers to support his idea...well. Seems frantic and desperate to me.  It seems like his desire to be President is getting in the way of his dignity. Leave the spinning to Obama and his Nevada "win", I say. Just run on an honest platform, damnit. Can anybody run without spinning a reality into a non-reality?

    Fine Bowers (none / 0) (#17)
    by Militarytracy on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 09:33:16 AM EST
    no superdelegates and no open primary and I doubt you would be that much happier because Clinton is in the race and people are voting for her whether other people hate her or not.

    I also notice that some bloggers (none / 0) (#18)
    by Militarytracy on Mon Jan 21, 2008 at 09:39:15 AM EST
    are posting the delegate count but making no note that the delegate count for Nevada is nonbinding when we get to the convention if Nevada delegates don't want it to be.

    Parent