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South Carolina Whites Are Not Moving Away From Obama

Watching MSNBC this morning, I see that the notion that white voters are moving away from Obama is taking flight. This is not supported by a review of the polling. Barack Obama NEVER had the white vote in South Carolina. In an update in my previous post, I wrote:

Joe Scarborough says something that is remarkable - that Barack Obama's drop with white voters is due to "Clinton race baiting." But this simply ignores the fact that Obama made a much more explicit appeal to African Americans for months prior to that, indeed in response to the bogus "is he black enough concerns. Moreover, the polling simply does not bear out Scarborough's analysis. Consider Obama's percentage of the white vote in South Carolina as polled by Mason Dixon.

In a December 3-6 poll, Obama got 10% of the white vote (37% of the A-A vote.)

In a January 14-16 poll, Obama got 20% of the white vote (56% of the A-A vote.)

In a January 22-23 poll, Obama got 10% of the white vote (59% of the A-A vote.)

Of course that is one poll. In the Survey USA poll, Obama's white support has remained steady at 21% for the past 10 days.

In the Zogby poll, Obama's white support has GONE UP 1 point this week, from 18% to 19%.

In the Rassmussen poll, Obama's white support has remained EXACTLY the same this week, at 21%.

In the ARG poll, Obama has steadily captured 19% of the white vote and 61% of the A-A vote.

The fact is the demographics of support for the candidates has remained VIRTUALLY unchanged this entire month! If the race card was played THIS week, then it failed miserably. Nothing has changed in this race at all.

Obama has NEVER gotten the white vote in South Carolina. Never. And indeed, what has happened is that Obama has completely solidified the African American vote.

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  • Display: Sort:
    Correct (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by TheRealFrank on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:29:11 AM EST
    Nothing much really changed at all in the polls after the Iowa bounce. After Iowa, Obama moved into a lead of 10+ points, and has stayed there. The demographic breakdown did not change much.

    But, the media seem to be obsessed with race. And Bill Clinton.


    Can you please ... (none / 0) (#3)
    by robrecht on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:21:27 AM EST
    ... point to some specifics on Bill Clinton being obsessed with race?

    Parent
    Ehm (none / 0) (#4)
    by TheRealFrank on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:23:25 AM EST
    "The media is obsessed with race and with Bill Clinton".


    Parent
    I'm asking, if you can, to please ... (none / 0) (#10)
    by robrecht on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:56:13 AM EST
    ... point to specific comments by Bill Clinton that back up your claim that he is obsessed with race.  If you can't, feel free to withdraw your claim rather than merely repeating it.  Thank you.

    Parent
    Sorry, now I understand your clarification! (none / 0) (#11)
    by robrecht on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:57:04 AM EST
    Morning Joe (5.00 / 1) (#2)
    by RalphB on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:47:44 AM EST
    When Pat Buchanan is the voice of reason on a democratic primary, how far wrong has the media gone?  I suggest they are completely around the bend.

    The Bill Clinton fixation of these people is absurd.

    pat buchanan is an intelligent (none / 0) (#7)
    by hellothere on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:26:45 AM EST
    though flawed man. his biases over rule sound thinking. i will stop and listen to him while channel surfing because at times he does come through with a very good comment.

    Parent
    He's so right he's left sometimes (5.00 / 1) (#12)
    by robrecht on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:10:22 AM EST
    Below is one of my favorite quotes from Pat Buchanen.  At one level, I suppose, he's trying to shift blame to the Dems away from Bush for Iraq, but there's a grain of truth there.

    "I believe we have a right to know as Americans
    whether we were deceived,
    whether intelligence was cherry picked,
    hyped, and then hyped again in the State of the Union,
    who did it, and why,
    but that job is the job of the Congress of the United States.

    And let me say this, the Democratic Senate in 2002 could have stopped this drive to war by saying:

    'Mr. President,
    we're not going to war
    until you make a better case to us.'

    Instead, Clinton and Biden and all the rest
    gave the President a blank check to go to war
    and I will forever condemn them for that
    and that's the problem why
    they can't investigate it now.

    When they had the opportunity in the War Powers,
    they failed the country."

                                                                      - Pat Buchanen, October 29, 2005



    Parent
    If Obama (1.00 / 1) (#6)
    by athyrio on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:25:32 AM EST
    cannot win on his own merit, and needs the media as well as some of the blogs shilling for him....then how on earth will he win in a GE....If he cannot get more votes than Clinton in a forthright and honest manner by comparing both sides of the argument, then it isnt an election, it is a coronation....big difference....

    obama in my humble opinion (none / 0) (#8)
    by hellothere on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:28:12 AM EST
    can no longer win the general election. his surrogates made sure of that. and they won't improve in a general election.

    Parent
    sometimes when i see how awful the (none / 0) (#5)
    by hellothere on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:24:26 AM EST
    repubs are and how pathetic the media is i want to go on down to lowe's and get my pitchfork for the march on washington.

    by alast it is cold out today. (smile) so i'll just post on here. one of my relatives(a veteran) did march on washington. that is when mcarthur ordered his troops to use live ammunition on them. we remember it in my family.

    Since they don't ask for racial preferences... (none / 0) (#9)
    by Dadler on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:31:06 AM EST
    ...in a poll about candidates and who you will be voting for, the notion that we can adequately predict how racism will affect the white vote (or any other vote for that matter) is ridiculous.  It will play a factor, of course, but we will only be able to guess at its scope.  Polls, however, can tell us nothing about the degree to which actual prejudice influences votes.