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Iowa Independents Flocking To Both Parties?

I do not pay enough attention to the GOP race in Iowa. I have already discussed the DMR Poll's prediction that Independents will make up 40% of Democratic caucus goers, up over 100% from 2004's 19%. But I neglected to notice what the Des Moines Register reports today:

Meanwhile, the Register's poll showed independents at 20 percent of likely GOP caucusgoers, up from 13 percent in late November.

So Independents are also flocking to the Republican caucus in record numbers? Sort of makes all of this baffling. But this is what the DMR Poll is saying. That between the DMR November Poll in November and it's New Year's Eve poll, Independents decided to caucus increase their participation in BOTH caucuses by over 100% in the Dem caucus and by over 50% in the GOP caucus as well. They flocked to both parties.

If this was not the DMR Poll, I would be beyond skeptical of this finding. So are we expecting a record breaking total at the GOP Caucus? Apparently not:

State GOP officials say publicly they hope participation exceeds the 2000 turnout of 86,000, while some campaign strategists are suspecting it will be lower.

But the DMR Poll expects recordbreaking Independent participation in the GOP Caucus. This is all very strange frankly.

< Will The Iowa Dem Caucus Be Democratic? The Key Turnout Question | ARG Iowa Poll: Clinton With Large Lead >
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    Close (none / 0) (#1)
    by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 09:21:20 AM EST

    Close races bring higher turn out.  Not surprising.

    A nonsequitor (none / 0) (#2)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 09:23:42 AM EST
    Does it bring ONLY higher Independent turnout?


    Parent
    As a percentage (none / 0) (#9)
    by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 12:40:49 PM EST

    As a percentage, yes.  The rabid, committed, yellow dog, hard core, partisan will always show up.  The bigger the turnout the smaller the percentage of the hard core political junkie and the more that the more casual types come to play a larger role.

    Imagine the turn out if it was only Hillary and Biden for the Dems, and only Romney and Keyes for the Repubs.  

    Parent

    No Hat Tip? (none / 0) (#3)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 09:25:24 AM EST
    I posted about this article last night!  See the bias inherent in the system!!!  I'm being repressed...

    Did not see it (none / 0) (#4)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 09:28:44 AM EST
    Did you talk about the Indys flocking to the GOP?

    Parent
    Ron Paul Effect? (none / 0) (#5)
    by Jeff in Texas on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 09:30:47 AM EST
    I have no idea (obviously), but I wonder how many of the indies going Republican are Paulites?

    He is polling at 9% (none / 0) (#6)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 09:54:31 AM EST
    Real independents? (none / 0) (#7)
    by beal on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 09:55:55 AM EST
    I suspect that these are ex-republicans who are calling themselves independents because they are too ashamed to identify themselves as republicans.  After spending Christmas with my inlaws in rural MI this seems to be happening.

    Shamed Republicans (none / 0) (#8)
    by Jeff in Texas on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 10:49:50 AM EST
    There is a good bit of that in Texas.  And I have lots of (still) republican family members and co-workers who now readily admit that Bush has screwed things up terribly (which is great, but obviously several years too late).  They don't feel so bad that they'd vote for a Democrat, obviously, but it might keep them home come election day.

    A little speculation: (none / 0) (#10)
    by MarkL on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 02:51:39 PM EST
    I think Republicans may well genuinely like Obama, and some of them will caucus for him tonight because of honest approval. Another motivating factor is that the GOP field sucks so badly that they don't favor anyone. However, in the general election, almost all of these people will vote Republican----especially against Obama.


    Further speculation: Republicans who (none / 0) (#11)
    by oculus on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 02:58:02 PM EST
    vote Dem tonight may dislike the Repub. field but will choose Obama due to their extreme distaste for Hillary Clinton?

    Parent
    Yes, of course that makes a lot (none / 0) (#12)
    by MarkL on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 04:16:41 PM EST
    of sense---probably the best explanation.

    Parent