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CNN: WMUR Poll: Obama Ahead With NH Dems-Indep. Combo

A new CNN/WMUR poll taken Jan. 5 and 6 has been released. I got the actual poll results by e-mail.

Interviews with 341 New Hampshire residents who say they will vote in the Democratic primary and 268 New Hampshire residents who say they will vote in the Republican primary conducted by telephone.

The margin of error is 5 points for the total vote and 8 points for the Registered Democrat/Independent voters and men/women voters.

The results are below, and there are some interesting contradictions:

Totals: Obama 39%, Hillary 29%, Edwards 16%

Among registered Democratic voters:
Obama 37%, Hillary 34%, Edwards 19%

Among registered Independent Voters planning to vote in the Democratic primary:
Obama 43%, Hillary 22%, Edwards 16%

Gender breakdown:
Women: Obama 35%, Hillary 34%, Edwards 16%
Men: Obama 44%, Hillary 22%, Edwards 17%

Interestingly, only 55% have firmly decided on their preferred candidate. 25% are leaning towards a candidate and 20% are undecided.

Among the Independent voters, 51% will vote in the Democratic primary and 49% in the Republican primary. Just two days before (Jan 4-5), 56% were going to vote in the Democratic primary and 44% in the Republican. This too has an error rate of 8 pts.

The change factor is selling. Among those planning to vote in the Democratic primary, voters who think change is more important than experience has increased in the past 2 days to 67% from 61%. Those favoring experience decreased from 29% to 24%.

Among the likely Democratic voters, 79% said the country is ready to elect an African American president. 14% said no. 76% said the country is willing to elect a woman president and 16% said no.

As to who best represents their values, the likely Democratic voters said: Obama 34%, Hillary 26%, Edwards 18%

On electability, 42% of likely Democratic voters thought Obama is the most electable. 31% said Hillary and 12% said Edwards.

Given the above, check out this result among likely Democratic voters. Who has the "right experience" to be President: Hillary 41%, Obama 16%, Richardson 13%, Edwards 11%.

My take: The independent voters are driving these results. Among registered Democrats, Obama leads 37% to 34%. If you combine that with Hillary's experience lead, in other parts of the country with fewer Independents, she'd be very much in the running.

New Hampshire voters, like Iowans, are not representative of the nation. Neither are South Carolinans. Super Duper Tuesday will count more. I don't think New York or California or Florida voters will give a whit what happened in those three states. What's left is momentum and media exposure. I think many of them will be determined to prevent those tiny states from diminishing the chance for their vote to be of equal impact and will ignore the hype.

Between the margin of error, the Independents and the non-representative nature of the early voting states, I'm not persuaded that this N.H. poll is indicative of who our nominee will be.

Update: Chris Bowers:

In a development that has flown under the radar, it now seems to me that, as long as Clinton wins Florida and California, she will be ahead in delegates after February 5th no matter what happens in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.
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  • Display: Sort:
    could you please explain (none / 0) (#1)
    by Judith on Sun Jan 06, 2008 at 10:36:38 PM EST
    How one defines Likely Dem voter?  Does that mean registered Dem?

     

    Likely Democratic voter (none / 0) (#2)
    by Jeralyn on Sun Jan 06, 2008 at 10:42:40 PM EST
    means person likely to vote in the Democratic primary. That includes registered Democrats and Independents.

    Registered Democratic voters are those who register to vote as Democrats. New Hampshire allows Independents to vote in either primary.

    got it (none / 0) (#4)
    by Judith on Sun Jan 06, 2008 at 10:56:28 PM EST
    thanks  

    Parent
    You cohort BTD opines Tuesday's (none / 0) (#3)
    by oculus on Sun Jan 06, 2008 at 10:47:00 PM EST
    NH primary will decide who gets the Dem. nomination.  You disagree.  

    Here's my as yet unanswered question to BTD:

    What are the statistical chances a Dem. Presidential primary candidate who wins the majority of delegates in Iowa and New Hampshire fails to capture the nomination, i.e., is CA, with its huge amount of delegates, irrelevant after Tuesday?
     

    Primaries (none / 0) (#5)
    by Jgarza on Sun Jan 06, 2008 at 11:09:37 PM EST
    A lot of people in primaries vote for the winner.  If you start winning you become the winner.  Sure in theory you can still pick up a lot of delegates, but it just doesn't happen.

    Parent
    I suppose if BTD weren't so (none / 0) (#16)
    by oculus on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 12:22:25 AM EST
    involved in his TV show, he would answer this question.

    Parent
    CA voter (none / 0) (#6)
    by PatConnors on Sun Jan 06, 2008 at 11:39:59 PM EST
    New Hampshire voters, like Iowans, are not representative of the nation. Neither are South Carolinans. Super Duper Tuesday will count more. I don't think New York or California or Florida voters will give a whit what happened in those three states.

    Sorry, you are off base here.  I love Edwards but will vote for Obama in the primary because I don't want Clinton!  Us CA voters are not that much different than the Iowa and NH voters.

    Do you also factor in "electability"? (none / 0) (#7)
    by oculus on Sun Jan 06, 2008 at 11:42:20 PM EST
    Who DO They Support (none / 0) (#11)
    by squeaky on Sun Jan 06, 2008 at 11:53:48 PM EST
    Giuliani?

    Parent
    Oh Well (none / 0) (#14)
    by squeaky on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 12:16:10 AM EST
    You are in the minority, no big deal and that may change. Don't act like you are representative of NY dems though. Your Clinton bashing makes you sound like a republican.

    From dec 17:

    n the Democratic primary, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 55 - 17 percent, with 7 percent for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards. This compares to a 49 - 12 percent Clinton lead October 17
    .

    Quinnipiac University Poll


    Parent

    Hi Squeaky (none / 0) (#24)
    by Judith on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:52:27 AM EST
    I know New Yorkers who are Clinton supporters.
    It is funny whenn peopele project their own friends on the wider population.  No one I know bashers her - but I tend to discuss politics with  professional people who have been impressed by what she has accomplished. Lots more people like Bloomberg - unless they smoke.

    It is currently enthusiasm pushing Obama - perhaps some detail will come later.  In the meantime, this is like world series fever.  

    Have a nice day as rhey say...

    Parent

    President Obama (none / 0) (#8)
    by JHFarr on Sun Jan 06, 2008 at 11:45:56 PM EST
    It's inevitable. The whole thing fell open in front of me this morning. Obama will be the next president. Lots of surprises in store, mostly good.

    All this from me, the cynic's cynic.

    An epiphany on Ephipany? (5.00 / 2) (#9)
    by oculus on Sun Jan 06, 2008 at 11:49:39 PM EST
    Don't say "inevitable!" (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by burnedoutdem on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 12:14:39 AM EST
    It's a jinx!!  (j/k)

    Parent
    Obama campaign issues immed. (none / 0) (#15)
    by oculus on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 12:21:12 AM EST
    denial of inevitability.

    Parent
    :-P (none / 0) (#17)
    by burnedoutdem on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 12:23:10 AM EST
    Aha! Inevitability - very popular this year (none / 0) (#18)
    by oldpro on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 12:31:27 AM EST
    I hear.

    Parent
    Almost as overworked as "change." (none / 0) (#19)
    by oculus on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 12:33:32 AM EST
    Inevitablity is actually kinda retro (5.00 / 2) (#22)
    by burnedoutdem on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 07:50:41 AM EST
    "Dewey defeats Truman" - vintage chic

    Parent
    National Poll (none / 0) (#21)
    by BDB on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 06:45:18 AM EST
    I think it depends on whether Obama can move her national numbers.  He does not have the turnout machine set up beyond the first few states (understandably, it's impossible to replicate what he's doing re GOTV in Iowa and NH and probably SC across the nation).  Right now, he hasn't been getting a huge bump in national polls.  The good news, from his perspective, is that Clinton has taken some hits.  See here.

    I would agree (none / 0) (#23)
    by burnedoutdem on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 08:42:40 AM EST
    if it was any other out-of-nowhere candidate, but Obama's reached a rock star status nationwide.  I think the name recognition he carries (while not as significant or long standing as HRC's) coupled with a bump from wins in Iowa and (maybe) NH will give him the national boost he needs.  

    In terms of national polling I think a lot of people are just holding back to see what happens, and then they'll start researching the candidates as individuals (an exhausting task when there are 8 on the ticket).  Obama has been a national fixture for a couple of years now and that will naturally draw interest - his rhetoric should take care of the rest.

    Another thing to consider, the national polls consist of averages - some of which reach back to Nov/Dec.  Clearly, those old polls could skew the numbers a tad.

    All this to say - It doesn't really mean anything, but the speculation is entertaining.

    Parent