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Paths To the Nomination

Speaking for me only.

Barack Obama is the strong frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. His smashing win in Iowa has been the catalyst. In the RCP average, he holds and 8 point lead over Clinton and a 19 point lead over Edwards. His path is clear. Win New Hampshire big. Roll the big Mo to South Carolina and and then hold the upper hand on Super Tuesday February 5.

Hillary Clinton has a conceivable path to the nomination. Run close to Obama in New Hampshire (if she keeps it within 5, I think she can spin it to a draw maybe), perform well in South Carolina and beat Obama on Super Tuesday. I think the chances are slim of any one of these things happening, let alone all of them.

John Edwards has no conceivable path to the nomination in my view. Even if he has a miracle second in New Hampshire, Obama will have buried him. Moreover Obama is already the change candidate and Edwards' reluctance to go after Obama, both in Iowa and in New Hampshire, demonstrated to me at least, that Edwards really is not running for President, he is just running against Clinton.

More . .

And I have to take Edwards to task for this. John Edwards does not have a progressive record. I know he likes to think that being a trial lawyer and having won cases against big corporations makes him a progressive, but I do not see it that way. When you make your fortune doing something, it s hard for me to see how you argue that that makes you progressive. You can of course still be progressive, but it will have to be manifested in other ways.

John Edwards' Senate record was not particularly progressive. Not surprising for a Senator from North Carolina. His 2004 campaign was progressive but not in the Fighting Style he has demonstrated in 2008.

So what is the Edwards argument about in 2008? His policy proposals were quite progressive. And he forced the other candidates to follow his lead. Interestingly, on the big domestic issue of the campaign, it was Hillary Clinton who followed Edwards to the most purportedly most progressive position, mandates. Obama did not.

I can not find a dime's worth of difference between the candidates on other issues.

So what has Edwards' campaign become in the last month? To me, a revealingly cynical campaign. But not even 'good' 'trying to win' cynical. It has been a campaign against Clinton.

This has been defended by Edwards supporters as first, necessary to knock down the "inevitable" candidate to change the dynamic of the race and now that Obama is the frontrunner, that rationale has been totally abandoned to say that Edwards is trying to knock Clinton out to get a two man race with Obama.

Now, these Edwards supporters seem to sincerely believe this makes sense. Any reasonable person knows it does not.

First, Edwards is gonna knock Clinton out of the race? In whose dreams? Why would she drop out before February 5? She has the money and the polling to justify going on. And if we know anything about campaigns, they continue until someone has no rational at all for going on.

Second, if knocking Hillary down as inevitable was the rationale in Iowa, how come knocking down Obama as inevitable is not the rationale in New Hampshire? Indeed, no candidate who has won both Iowa and New Hampshire HAS EVER failed to win the nomination. Talk about inevitable.

Third, Edwards has ALWAYS been competing with Obama for the mantle of change. It is no different today. When Edwards knocks Clinton down, it is not to his political benefit, but to Obama's. All he is doing is extending Obama's lead over HIMSELF and Clinton.

Fourth, the CENTRAL question that Edwards can now bring to the campaign, if winning is not his purpose, is how to effect the change called for by all the candidates. In this, his argument is largely with Barack Obama. Edwards has abdicated from fighting that issue. It leaves his campaign without purpose.

In short, not only is there no chance for the Edwards campaign, there is NO PURPOSE. I believe he has discredited himself at the end.

POST SCRIPT - Some believe Edwards is angling for VP. My own view is that you can do that only once. Moreover I seriously doubt that Obama would pick him as it would be a jarring contrast to his own campaign theme.

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    my new years resolution (5.00 / 1) (#4)
    by virginia cynic on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:47:33 AM EST
    to spend a little less time on politics has certainly been made easier by Big Tent Democrat's screeds against Edwards. I use to like talk left as a progressive site but no more. The attacks on Edwards really defy logic and the castigation of people who might support him as unreasonable people is silly and demonstrates that talk left has lost some of its progressive views in favor of one commentator's vitriol. does BTD worry that John Edwards would litigate circles around him? I wonder.
    If for no other reasons Edwards should at least be respected for making sure that Health care will be a huge issue, for addressing the disparities in income in this country , and for making sure that Clinton's stance on the war could not be fudged with his clear and direct admission of having blown the authorization vote. And if for nothing else the remark in the debate the other night where he deftly slipped the knife to Hillary about her change in attacking Obama.
    So thanks to BTD for allowing me to realize that the perspective from talk left is no longer particularly interesting. My guess is that he will say good riddance and so be it

    But (none / 0) (#5)
    by Judith on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:01:04 AM EST
    ...but dont you like Jeralyn?  I find her comments terrific and useful. And I thought this was her site.

    I like Edwards  - but I agree with Big Tent that he made a fool of himself recently.  I thought he was very disappointing.

    Parent

    by the way (none / 0) (#10)
    by Judith on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:12:07 AM EST
    it has become clear to me that there is a ot of background here I know nothing about - like who Big Tent is or some of the other people.  I just treat the words on a web site - that is all I have to go on.  That is all I should go on.

    Parent
    dude - you trying to play DC Insider? (3.50 / 2) (#20)
    by seabos84 on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 11:39:50 AM EST
    who should and who shouldn't run

    oops,

    I mean who should drop out cuz they haven't a chance!

    I distrust JRE cuz I think his populist message is a bit johnny come lately

    (I think it would have beat Father Fascist - RayGun - in 1984)

    and his crappy votes, but, he's the one who turns my stomach the least.

    Hillary's decades of selling out, Barack's gonna play kumbaby or patty cake and negotiate with fascists, gore ran the WORST campaign in history till stupid kerry ...

    I wouldn't care if the town drunk ran for President.  could he do much worse? at least there'd be a 'legitimate' reason all his decisions stank.

    rmm.

    the town drunk did run (4.00 / 2) (#26)
    by Judith on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 12:10:22 PM EST
    his name is Bush.

    Ha.

    Your post is funny and clear.  Nice combo.

    Parent

    I think we're in the same sarcasm (none / 0) (#27)
    by seabos84 on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 12:20:06 PM EST
    bandwidth - you must be from the northeast or from LA if you think I'm funny ;)

    rmm.

    Parent

    yup (none / 0) (#44)
    by Judith on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 04:30:48 PM EST
    I love a good sharp riposte.  Not meanness - just fun and witty.

    Parent
    edwards (3.50 / 2) (#29)
    by Turkana on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 12:41:09 PM EST
    was never running against hillary. he was running against obama to be the anti-hillary. failing to realize that cost him whatever small, underfunded chance he ever had.

    He let Obama take Iowa from him (5.00 / 1) (#38)
    by andgarden on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 02:52:45 PM EST
    that was always the story.

    Parent
    and he did it (5.00 / 1) (#39)
    by Turkana on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 03:03:47 PM EST
    by not running against obama.

    Parent
    Priorities, "Clinton brand" or USA (3.00 / 1) (#9)
    by Aaron on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:10:37 AM EST
    TALK OF HILLARY EXIT ENGULFS CAMPAIGNS

    I can't believe this could actually be true, Hillary Clinton is thinking of pulling out of the race to protect the Clinton brand?  Tell me this ain't so.

    What's more important, the Clinton brand, or the United States of America?

    Drudge? (5.00 / 1) (#11)
    by eric on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:12:25 AM EST
    Look at the source - Drudge.  Not exactly reliable.

    Parent
    oh - (none / 0) (#12)
    by Judith on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:13:28 AM EST
    I thought it may be Huffington - she hates Clinton with a passion, too.

    Parent
    The only reason I would give Drudge credibility... (none / 0) (#22)
    by Aaron on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 11:49:10 AM EST
    ... on this, is because he's been rather pro Clinton since this election cycle started, apparently believing that she was a mortal lock. I just figured he was trying to get in good with the person he thought would be the next president, in the hopes of gaining his people even greater access in the future.

    I don't visit his site anymore, gave up going there years ago, there's just something about the guy I don't like, I just saw this on Memeorandum, and the guy does have sources everywhere.

    Parent

    if you are (none / 0) (#24)
    by Judith on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 12:06:47 PM EST
    addressing me, I give Drudge no cred.  He is a mean spirited gossip monger and now so is Huffington. I wont do anything to encourage either one.

    You, of course, are free to do as you wish.

    Parent

    and (none / 0) (#25)
    by Judith on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 12:07:24 PM EST
    as of course you already knew. :-)

    Parent
    That depends. (none / 0) (#17)
    by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:36:22 AM EST

    What's more important, the Clinton brand, or the United States of America?

    For you or me, the USA no doubt.  For the Clintons that may be another matter.  In any case the USA will survive no matter which of the 7 or 8 candidates of either party win the election.

    Parent

    Not reliable, but not always wrong, either (none / 0) (#18)
    by burnedoutdem on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:38:30 AM EST
    Still, the line about "her money is going to dry up" seems silly especially if we're talking about pre-Feb. 5.  She has $100 million in the bank - that will certainly get her through Super Tuesday.  Depending on what states she picks up then (and she'll get some) she's likely to get more donors.

    I really don't think she'll be out any time soon.

    Then again...Drudge did break Lewinsky, didn't he?

    Parent

    Please (none / 0) (#19)
    by TheRealFrank on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:48:23 AM EST
    Why do some people have to attach selfish motives to actions by anyone named "Clinton"?

    I have no idea if this rumour is true or not. It may be crap. It may be planted by another campaign. It may be true. Who knows.

    However, if she loses NH by double digits, there's really no point for her to go on (hell, there hardly is any point right now).

    The Clinton haters will bash her anyway: if she goes on, essentially offering herself as a sacrificial lamb in order to keep the media focused on the race and give the nominee (Obama) some extra positive press, they'll say she is is damaging him. If she drops out, thereby no longer bringing any criticism of him in the news, they'll say the is "protecting the brand".


    Parent

    So you admit HRC would be good for America (none / 0) (#28)
    by Molly Bloom on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 12:35:24 PM EST
    I don't think this line of attack is one I would take, if I were an ABC voter.

    Consider what you are saying: HRC would be good for America, but she is so selfish, she would sacrifice America for the Clinton Brand.

    I am not an ABC or ABO or ABE- I ABGOP.  


    Parent

    I would agree 100% with BTD (3.00 / 1) (#15)
    by magster on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:30:19 AM EST
    except Edwards has the post-Iowa bounce in the national polling, not Obama.  Maybe there's something to Edwards strategy beyond a Clinton slash and burn.

    So I agree 96.3%.  

    No chance at VP (2.00 / 1) (#1)
    by burnedoutdem on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:27:52 AM EST
    I took it as angling for some other position - in the cabinet, maybe?

    But, I don't really believe that he wants another government job outside of the presidency.  He doesn't need the income, and if he follows the Gore model, he could do more good on his own.  

    I think it probably comes down to two things:  1) he just doesn't like Clinton and has decided to take her down with him (and this is only supported by my interpretation of his body language at debates and in public references to her - so if anyone has actual support for or against this, I'd love to hear it).  2) Fundamentally, Obama's work at the community level is more in line with Edwards' expressed core beliefs.  Maybe he figures that if he can't win, Obama is next-best.

    Edwards as Attorney General? (none / 0) (#23)
    by dmfox on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 12:01:45 PM EST
    I think he'd make a good AG.  It would also fit nicely in having an aggressive trial lawyer go after the criminality of the Bush years.  It would also be a way for an Obama administration to go after political corruption.  I think he'd be a perfect fit for this position.

    If Edwards goes down here, I don't see any other path for his political career to take.  I want his voice in any potential Democratic administration.  This seems to me to be the most likely way for that to happen.

    Parent

    Good Analysis (none / 0) (#2)
    by Maryb2004 on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:38:43 AM EST
    in your first three paragraphs.  


    I agree. (none / 0) (#32)
    by sarcastic unnamed one on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 01:01:05 PM EST
    Big Tent - (none / 0) (#3)
    by Judith on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:40:23 AM EST
    I just was able to check in with someone in NH who had been sort of a Clinton supporter and sort of an Edwards supporter.  Not a real educated money person -  as has been the description of Obama supporters...WELL, she went to a rally and got to shake Obama's hand and oh boy, is she in love.  Gushing all sorts of slogans. She wants to be part of the excitement.

    I have no comment other than that seems to be wha is carrying him - enthusiasm.  It is better than apathy.

    I'm a die hard republican (none / 0) (#7)
    by Slado on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:04:14 AM EST
    but even I like Obama.  Not enough to vote for him but secretly I'm rooting for him to win the Democratic nomination because I'm confident I can stomach him for at least 4 years if he wins the general.

    He is the type of canidate that doesn't play well with political junkies but plays very well with the general population becuase they don't get to focused on pet issues and are more concerned witt the type of president they think someone would be.

    Obama is professional, confident, good looking, great family, great story I mean what's not to like about him?  Sure some diehard political junkies will find particualr policies to get in a lather about but that's true of any candidate really.  Overall he is the biggest threat to the Republicans in the general election.  Sure he will have to overcome the race card but frankly those voters aren't voting democratic anyway.  

    Hillary has too much baggage and the country is ready to move on from the Bush Clinton Bush years.

    Parent

    please dont be offended (3.66 / 3) (#8)
    by Judith on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:09:33 AM EST
    But I dont actually want a democrat who makes Republicans happy.  If he or she does then something is wrong because the GP has wrecked this country for 8 years.  The democrat who fixes it will de facto have to make a good portion of the GOP squirm. The fact that so many say the GOP hates Clinton strikes me as a ggod thing.

    Nothing personal - just my take.

    And I am not sure it will matter anyway what he GOP thinks of him - the Indies may swing it for him as is.

    Thank you for your honest and thoughtful comment.

    Parent

    Edwards (none / 0) (#6)
    by eric on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:03:33 AM EST
    I agree that it looks bad for Edwards, my favorite.  I am in a super Tuesday State - Minnesota.

    If Edwards doesn't last until then, I am switching to Hillary.  This was never about being against Hillary, I legitimately like Edwards.  I agree that there are probably a lot of people that wanted someone instead of Hillary - and they had to choose between Edwards and Obama.  That wasn't me.  And I do think there are plenty of others that will go to Hillary if Edwards does bow out.

    eric (none / 0) (#13)
    by Judith on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:23:57 AM EST
    I am just curious - what do you think Of Bloomberg?

    Parent
    sorry (none / 0) (#16)
    by Judith on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:31:06 AM EST
    this is off topic - never mind.

    Parent
    Clinton's Path ... (none / 0) (#14)
    by Robot Porter on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:28:26 AM EST
    .. . to nomination is to demonstrate how the Republican attacks will destroy Obama's chances in the general.  This is very tricky to do, however.

    Or for Obama to do something that demonstrates this on his own.

    I think that National Anthem video alone will destroy Obama in the general.  And that's just the tip of the iceberg.

    I'm not a big fan or either Obama or Hillary.  But I think Hillary can win the general.  Obama won't.  It will be Dukakis level defeat.

    If Dems can be shone this, they'll turn to Hillary.

    Totally agree w/paragraph four. (none / 0) (#30)
    by oculus on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 12:45:06 PM EST
    And, I don't see Obama tapping Edwards for an Obama administration.  Based on body language of Obama during NH debate.

    What is the source for: (none / 0) (#31)
    by oculus on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 12:58:03 PM EST
    Indeed, no candidate who has won both Iowa and New Hampshire HAS EVER failed to win the nomination. Talk about inevitable.


    Ever? (none / 0) (#34)
    by shaharazade on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 02:10:45 PM EST
    Since when does ever mean 1976. Iowa caucuses political importance is a relatively recent development.

    Parent
    I keep asking the question but haven't received (1.00 / 1) (#35)
    by oculus on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 02:24:04 PM EST
    a response as yet.

    Parent
    Me (none / 0) (#41)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 03:08:46 PM EST
    I am the source.

    Parent
    Oh, man. (none / 0) (#43)
    by oculus on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 04:04:44 PM EST
    Do you doubt me? (none / 0) (#47)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:47:50 PM EST
    I think tis is a piece of basic information.

    Do you trust me? If you do not, then do not believe it.

    Parent

    Well, you certainly correctly predicted (none / 0) (#48)
    by oculus on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:55:07 PM EST
    Obama would win in Iowa.

    But, if there is a link for this assertion [no one EVER lost Iowa and NH and captured the nomination], which seems to be based on statistics, I would enjoy seeing it.  I can google though if it is too much trouble.

    Parent

    Here's a link about winning candidates who (5.00 / 1) (#49)
    by oculus on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 06:03:59 PM EST
    didn't win both Iowa and NH.

    WSJ

    Parent

    I said the OPPOSITE (none / 0) (#50)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 06:13:02 PM EST
    No one who WON BOTH Iowa and NH had NOT captured the nomination.

    Parent
    I know. I'm still searching for your evidence. (none / 0) (#51)
    by oculus on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 06:15:51 PM EST
    1972: Muskie, Muskie, McGovern (none / 0) (#53)
    by oculus on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 06:19:54 PM EST
    Otherwise, you are correct.

    1972

    Parent

    We are defining winning differently (none / 0) (#55)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 06:49:53 PM EST
    Muskie "lost" both Iowa AND New Hampshire in the expectations game, the way LBJ lost NH in 1968.

    Obama will win both. Just as Kerry did. Just as Gore did. Etc.

    Parent

    At a loss for words. (none / 0) (#57)
    by oculus on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 06:53:18 PM EST
    Love to hear you in a televised debate.

    Parent
    Are you? (none / 0) (#59)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 12:17:26 AM EST
    You're new at analyzing politics then.

    Did you not know that LBJ "lost" NH by winning over 50% of the vote?

    Did you NOT know Muskie "lost" Iowa and NH to McGovern?

    Come now.

    Parent

    Am I correct that Muskie WON the Iowa (none / 0) (#60)
    by oculus on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 01:20:53 AM EST
    Dem. caucuses (delegate vote) and NH Dem. primary (del. vote) but did not win the Dem. nomintation; McGovern did?  

    I am merely a spectator in the business of analyzing politics though.

    Parent

    Awaiting the UPDATE: (none / 0) (#56)
    by oculus on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 06:50:50 PM EST
    Any reasonable person ... (none / 0) (#33)
    by chemoelectric on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 01:07:24 PM EST
    Any reasonable person knows it does not.

    You should stop writing that sort of thing, it makes the writer appear frightened and defensive, because it is bullying the reader into agreeing. ("You are unreasonable if you choose not to agree with me.")

    Do you feel bullied? (none / 0) (#37)
    by andgarden on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 02:51:38 PM EST
    If you do, it seems to me that's your problem.

    Parent
    why should Edwards go negative (none / 0) (#36)
    by shaharazade on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 02:29:35 PM EST
    on Obama at this point. Look what it did to Hillary.
    I thought the last debate was his strongest. I liked the good cop bad cop routine. Obama and Edwards both benefit from removing the candidate most connected to the status quo. Now this can get down to the 'slight differences' between the contenders. I'd like to hear Obama on issues and policy other then fuzzy inspirational oratory about change in one breath and compromise in the next.Without the anointed maybe I will.

    Obama REALLY Loved it (none / 0) (#40)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 03:07:38 PM EST
    My final conclusion as to whom Obama reminds (none / 0) (#45)
    by oculus on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:08:22 PM EST
    me of:  Denzel Washington.  Cool, calm, collected, charismatic, well-spoken, handsome.  

    Parent
    So...you think he should drop out? (none / 0) (#42)
    by Alien Abductee on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 03:47:01 PM EST
    Why shouldn't he go on, after all? You can hardly argue that his being in the race hasn't raised the profile of economic populist issues, especially since he's been getting more media attention since Iowa.

    Whyever should he drop out then? Whatever his motivation, he is pushing the race in a more progressive direction. Leaving just Obama and Clinton in the race will make for the unseemliest of scrambles for the center. And even if the policies of the three of them aren't much different, their rhetoric is, and that can shift public understanding of the issues. Edwards is raising themes that haven't been heard at this level in a generation (at least since Webb's WSJ op-ed - but where has he been since?). If he stays in just with Obama, he holds him to a more progressive course than a race between Obama and HIllary. Perfectly obvious. If he can stay in, why not.

    So what if Edwards keeps running when he knows he won't win? What does it hurt except Hillary's chances? And you're seriously trying to argue Hillary is more the progressive between herself and Obama? ha ha ha ha ha

    His negatives have dropped away for me in that it looks like he can deliver a realigning super majority. In that case he can stay just as nice as he pleases while reaching out to conservatives on his own terms.

    Your argument on why Edwards can't win may be convincing, but as for the rest...so what?

    It does not matter (none / 0) (#46)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:46:40 PM EST
    Oh (none / 0) (#52)
    by Alien Abductee on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 06:17:38 PM EST
    That's why you're writing about it.

    Parent
    2 different things (5.00 / 1) (#54)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 06:45:38 PM EST
    My post is perhaps the most important ever written.

    Whether Edwards continues or not means nothing at all.


    Parent

    lol, OK (none / 0) (#58)
    by Alien Abductee on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 07:39:01 PM EST
    Though it seems to be the subtext at least if not the inescapable conclusion of what you're arguing here, trying to knock him down with words like "discredited" and "cynical" and with such vitriol generally lately.

    His stated purpose is to knock Hillary out and then hang on in case Obama flames out (laughable Trippi strategy). I say, whatever HIS purpose, it's good for the race as far as progressives are concerned. No reason at all to keep slamming him for it. Unless you're pulling for Hillary over Obama that is.

    Parent