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Franklin Pierce NH Poll: Still Tight

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 07:46:42 AM EST
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Unlike a number of polls that have Obama opening a substantial lead, the Franklin Pierce poll has it still tight between Obama and Clinton with Edwards well back:

Obama 34 (28)
Clinton 31 (32)

Edwards 20 (20)
1/6 (1/2)

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    Franklin Pierce NH Poll: Still Tight | 6 comments (6 topical)

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    When it comes to polls (none / 0) (#1)
    by Slado on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 08:15:11 AM EST
    I always trust the RCP average.

    Right now it has Obama solidly in the lead.   They are almost always right using this format (correctly predicted 2004 and 2006 elections).

    Anyway just more food for thought.

    Real Clear Politcs Polls

    Predictor? (none / 0) (#2)
    by burnedoutdem on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 08:22:35 AM EST


    MoE (none / 0) (#3)
    by Gabriel Malor on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 08:23:26 AM EST
    Yeah, the poll that BTD cites is within the margin of error.

    The Democratic poll interviewed 403 likely Democratic voters by telephone, and carries a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.
    Oops. (none / 0) (#4)
    by Gabriel Malor on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 08:26:17 AM EST
    Correction: here's the right link.

    Parent
    Woops - (none / 0) (#5)
    by burnedoutdem on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 08:29:22 AM EST
    Clicked "post" accidentally.

    Historically how does the FP poll stack up as a predictor?  Is it like the DMR and has a bizarrely accurate feel for the state?  Sorry, I just don't know much about FP or their track record...

    Another question (and I think I saw it on another board but I can't find it now), what does a win in NH really mean for the nomination?  It looks like NH has been wrong a few times (Tsongas, anyone?) in the past.  Is a win really necessary, or is second place enough for momentum into the Feb 5th onslaught?  Has NH become more significant this year because of Feb 5?

    It's somewhat helpful to look at Pollster's (none / 0) (#6)
    by tommyg on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:02:42 AM EST
    poll of the pollsters, which shows the reliability of these polls according to the pollsters.

    The Franklin Pierce and Suffolk polls which showed a closer race are poorly rated.

    Franklin Pierce NH Poll: Still Tight | 6 comments (6 topical)

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