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More State Polls Point To Significant Obama Lead

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 05:19:54 PM EST
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Via Kos, CNN/Opinion Research state polling:

Florida

McCain (R) 47 (48)
Obama (D) 51 (48)

Minnesota

McCain (R) 43 (41)
Obama (D) 54 (53)

Missouri

McCain (R) 48 (50)
Obama (D) 49 (45)

More...

Nevada

McCain (R) 47 (44)
Obama (D) 51 (49)

Virginia

McCain (R) 44 (50)
Obama (D) 53 (46)

< Hillary Clinton Renews Call For HOLC | Why McCain is Losing the Battleground States >

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    More State Polls Point To Significant Obama Lead | 58 comments (58 topical)

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    The Big Dog in Florida (5.00 / 1) (#42)
    by CoralGables on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 07:20:50 PM EST
    If anyone saw the Big Dog in Florida this afternoon, you will never again say his support of Obama is half-hearted. With the conviction he showed today, if Bill Clinton makes a few more Florida stops over the next 4 weeks, it's another state that will easily flip into the Blue column.

    Saw him on tv, and Bill was great (5.00 / 2) (#46)
    by Cream City on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 07:38:18 PM EST
    but I have to tell you that it just was a reminder of the devastating, terrible treatment he received from the nominee's supporters.  And I am sure that they are excoriating him again on the blogs for not doing enough, as I already heard that from the in-the-bag tv pundits.

    So whether bringing out Bill on his penitential tour as a forgiven racist will work for Obama, we will see.  The nominee really has to win it -- and not remind us of how he did so.

    Parent

    Fat Chance (5.00 / 1) (#50)
    by wasabi on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 09:25:24 PM EST
    There are some seriously deranged folks who never will give up the meme that the Clinton's are just waiting for 2012 to roll around.

    Parent
    The only good thing (none / 0) (#1)
    by TruthMatters on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 05:31:09 PM EST
    is now McCain must play defense, McCain and the RNC will be forced to spend money in Florida, Ohio, Virgina, North Carolina, Indiana, Colardo and THEN they have to figure out how they can afford to go on the offense if they still want to win.

    I very much like our position right now, and though Obama's numbers will probably start dropping after the bailout bill is passed and the crisis is over.

    but still what a great place to be 34 days before the election.

    McCain can't just play defense (none / 0) (#4)
    by magster on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 05:48:42 PM EST
    With Obama likely to win IA, NM plus one or more of OH, FL, CO, VA, NC McCain is going to have to steal NH and another state.  Where's he gonna go?

    Parent
    If true the polling indicates that (none / 0) (#31)
    by Salo on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 06:38:12 PM EST
    Obama's "peace" candidacy and mild "critique" of wall street is resonating with voters ("voters" perhaps) . I just hope he pushes a left wing agenda when he gets into office and not a "leftwing agenda".

    Parent
    gee (none / 0) (#2)
    by connecticut yankee on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 05:38:19 PM EST
    Those VA numbers are amazing.

    Just need to hold it for 30 some days.

    Obama will peak ... (none / 0) (#3)
    by Robot Porter on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 05:45:56 PM EST
    this week in polling.

    There will be a slow and steady tightening of this race from next week on.

    I still believe Obama will win.  But I think he will hit his ceiling this week.

    Depends on how Palin does tomorrow (5.00 / 1) (#6)
    by boot on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 05:52:21 PM EST
    If she tanks, then Obama will widen the gap again.  If she gives a respectable showing (in line with her governor debates), then the race will still be close.

    Parent
    Even if she totally bombs (none / 0) (#14)
    by BrassTacks on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 06:11:32 PM EST
    It won't mean a sustainable increase for Obama.  Remember that dismal VP debate with Dan Quayle?  It mattered only for a few laugh lines and SNL.  Ultimately, people don't vote for VP, they vote for President.  

    Parent
    not this time (5.00 / 1) (#20)
    by Jeralyn on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 06:16:09 PM EST
    She's the reason he's behind. Who would take a chance on her in charge of economic policy if something happened to McCain?

    There's not enough difference between McCain and Obama on the bailout bill. It's Palin that is killing him, particularly in Florida. No one except evangelicals want an evangelical with extremist views in the White House.

    He'll lose because Obama's new voter registration drive has swung into high gear in the battleground states. Even Michelle was here today. Hollywood stars are flooding the college campuses this weekend.

    Unless there's a huge terror or national security threat where McCain does better, he's gone. And Palin sank him.

    Parent

    Nothing from the economy then? (5.00 / 1) (#26)
    by Salo on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 06:32:06 PM EST
    If anything she gave him a short term boost followed by a hang over.  If the markets were goig to bleed so heavily and the basis of capitalism was under review by the electorate the Democrat was always in good/better shape no matter what else happened.

    Geez talk about transferal...

    Do you really subscribe to the personal over the ideological in such matters?

    Parent

    I wouldn't dismiss her so easily. (none / 0) (#39)
    by Finis Terrae on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 07:17:16 PM EST
    Without Palin, McCain would be doing far worse than he is among his base. And don't forget that some "D" women identify strongly with her.

    I for one, am going to wait and see.

    Parent

    I suspect this one's a little different. (none / 0) (#21)
    by Lil on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 06:16:26 PM EST


    Parent
    I am hoping for a (none / 0) (#8)
    by TruthMatters on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 05:53:20 PM EST
    bad debate performance from Palin tomorrow to give us a few more days before the decline starts.

    but I think this is the high water mark. eventually the numbers will drop as we get more negative.

    but I am just hoping we can get through the weekend before that happens.

    4 more days of early voting with these numbers would be just awesome.

    Parent

    Maybe ... (none / 0) (#12)
    by Robot Porter on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 05:58:26 PM EST
    I really don't think debates have much effect.  Maybe a tiny one on the extreme margins.

    But I don't think the decline will start till early next week.

    Parent

    But Prez debates again next week (none / 0) (#57)
    by A DC Wonk on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 10:09:35 PM EST
    But don't forget: Obama and McCain debate again next week, and it'll be about domestic issues, where Obama can slam dunk him in a number of ways (abortion, minimum wage, economy, social security, etc etc.)

    I can't help but think: if Obama could beat McCain in a debate that was mostly about foreign policy, then all the more so when it turns to domestic issues.

    As Kos is fond of saying: with the GOP floundering in the water, now is the time to throw them an anvil . . .

    Parent

    OK, so (none / 0) (#47)
    by rdandrea on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 07:57:37 PM EST
    You can predict the polls?

    What a great skill.

    Bet you're worth a ton of money.

    Parent

    Silence insued (none / 0) (#5)
    by boot on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 05:51:17 PM EST
    Has the Couric question on Supreme Court cases to Palin aired tonight yet?

    Honestly (5.00 / 3) (#7)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 05:52:54 PM EST
    No one cares about that.

    Bloggers have had a tin ear imo on Palin.

    the one thing I worry about is a big performance from Palin tomorrow.

    Parent

    What do you think the impact of that would be? (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by steviez314 on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 06:00:31 PM EST
    I'd say maybe a 1-2 points back to McCain, but not more than that.  I mean, the Republican base can only vote once, and they don't care what she does anyway.

    I don't think there's anything she can do to get the voters worried about the economy back to McCain's side unless she finds $700 billion somewhere.

    In any case, after a few days of cable news talk, we'll be back to the bailout vote and the next Pres debate.

    On the other hand, if it turns into another Couric-type performance, that reflects so badly on McCain's judgment that I think the election is basically over.

    Parent

    Tax cuts (none / 0) (#17)
    by BrassTacks on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 06:14:39 PM EST
    She can talk about tax cuts.  Voters do like to hear about paying less in taxes.  

    Parent
    And the senate bill has 'em. (none / 0) (#35)
    by oldpro on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 06:48:45 PM EST


    Parent
    Yup (none / 0) (#52)
    by BrassTacks on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 09:30:51 PM EST
    Something for everyone.

    Parent
    The VP debate will have ... (5.00 / 1) (#43)
    by Robot Porter on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 07:26:01 PM EST
    no impact on the race.  But it is important to Palin's political future.

    If she's seen as an asset in the home stretch, she'll be the odds on favorite for the 2012 nomination.

    If I was advising her, I'd recommend she play to her strengths.  The whole "Mrs. Smith goes to Washington card."  An average American woman with common sense.

    I'd even recommend she push back against the recent attacks on her "stupidity," and say something like:

    "I'm not a lawyer, and I don't have a fancy education, but I know the problems average Americans face.  Because I've faced them too."

    Americans clearly don't care about experience in this cycle, so she shouldn't try to look like a wonky technocrat.  If she's just warm and folksy, she'll probably look like the winner of the debate.

    But, again, I think it will have zero impact on the race when all is said and done.


    Parent

    maybe had she rambled. (none / 0) (#9)
    by TruthMatters on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 05:55:27 PM EST
    but from what i hear she is just silent.

    an awkward silence on a question, when everyone already questions if she knows enough will be just terrible on tv.

    and with people already questioning her it wont look good.

    keep the narrative going as long as we can, it is hurting her numbers.

    Parent

    Maybe she was pulling ... (none / 0) (#19)
    by Robot Porter on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 06:15:50 PM EST
    a Frank T. J. Mackey.

    ;)

    Parent

    Cruise is brilliant as Mackey. (none / 0) (#30)
    by JoeA on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 06:37:09 PM EST
    Same in Tropic Thunder.  

    These obnoxious over the top characters . . . you wonder if they work so well as they have an element of himself in them.

    Parent

    Oh she rambled (none / 0) (#28)
    by indiependy on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 06:33:55 PM EST
    And the buzz about it is true,

    it's a total train wreck.

    I have to respectfully disagree with you BTD, it's not just bloggers who care. She's become a key element in the decline of McCain's numbers. And it's not anecdotal, the polls back it up.

    Parent

    I agree (none / 0) (#10)
    by boot on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 05:55:30 PM EST
    Biden needs to not let her get away with spewing talking points.  He needs to show that behind the talking points (which she will deliver well), there's nothing there.  He needs to avoid letting her talk about oil and drilling too, because that seems like the only subject she is really keen on.  

    Parent
    Did you read Begala's piece on (none / 0) (#11)
    by oculus on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 05:57:48 PM EST
    debate prep?   How to debate:  keep hitting your talking points.  

    Parent
    Unfortunately, (none / 0) (#15)
    by BrassTacks on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 06:13:06 PM EST
    No one watches Katie Couric.  I couldn't even tell you when her show is on or what channel on my TV.  I can tell you were to find CNN and MSNBC.  

    Parent
    No one? (none / 0) (#23)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 06:24:29 PM EST
    I think your sample might be a little off.  Just because you don't watch CBS, doesn't mean that "no one" does.  I know more than a handful of people who don't have cable TV--for a variety of reasons (monetary, lifestyle, age, etc.)--so they don't have any choice but to watch network news.  

    I imagine with the economy in the dumps, a lot more people might be giving up cable TV as an luxury.

    Parent

    isn't CBS basically ... (none / 0) (#32)
    by Salo on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 06:39:50 PM EST
    ...a station that rightwingers don't watch because they hated Dan Rather?

    Parent
    CBS has really bad rating compared to (none / 0) (#53)
    by MoveThatBus on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 09:31:16 PM EST
    cable and one other network channel, but clips of the interview are shown on every channel, so it certainly does get mileage.

    I still don't buy into the heartbeat away theme, but I sure don't want anyone that far from ready to lead getting her training inside the WH.

    Then, having never even considered casting my vote for the ticket with Palin on it, I really don't need a steady feed of why we shouldn't vote for the R's.

    Parent

    By "No One"... (none / 0) (#24)
    by EddieInCA on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 06:27:15 PM EST
    .. you mean 5.44 Million average viewers per week.

    http://tinyurl.com/CouricRatings

    More than O'Reilly.
    More than Hannity.
    More than Olbermann.
    More than Beck.
    More than Matthews.
    More than Anderson.
    More than Brown.
    More than Greta.
    More than King.
    More than Scarborough.

    Only two higher: Williams and Gibson.

    Care to try again?

    Parent

    Per week SHOULD BE PER DAY. (none / 0) (#25)
    by EddieInCA on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 06:28:04 PM EST


    Parent
    Am I correct Sen. Obama's (none / 0) (#16)
    by oculus on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 06:14:06 PM EST
    new leads are due to those polled being more confident he has the ability to shore up the economy?  

    He needs to be clear about how (none / 0) (#18)
    by BrassTacks on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 06:15:28 PM EST
    He will do that.  Specifics.  

    Parent
    You and I agree on that, but apparently (5.00 / 2) (#22)
    by oculus on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 06:19:03 PM EST
    those polled don't require such specificity.  Obama is a much, much better pol. than either of us.

    Parent
    Enormous good fortune too. (5.00 / 2) (#29)
    by Salo on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 06:35:32 PM EST
    Getting to have an election right at the end of a 30 year deregulation cycle--why he couldn't have picked a better time in the last 70 odd years to run.

    Unheimlich.

    Parent

    Yep. I have decided that Obama is the (5.00 / 1) (#34)
    by Teresa on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 06:42:55 PM EST
    luckiest politician ever. He has benefited from a lack of competition early in his career, the Clinton campaign basically skipping the caucuses, giving him the big lead, and then the economy imploding. He must be destined to win because this is just unreal. And I didn't even mention the weak GOP opposition...no matter which one won the nomination.

    If his luck continues, we might get health care reform and other issues through but I don't think it means that much to him.

    And I forgot one thing - the media loves him!

    Parent

    his luck or my luck? (5.00 / 1) (#37)
    by Salo on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 06:52:24 PM EST
    lol

    Parent
    our luck? If he fixes health care, I'll give in (5.00 / 1) (#38)
    by Teresa on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 06:54:34 PM EST
    and bow down to him and kiss his feet. I'm not holding my breath over it though.

    Parent
    smiling (5.00 / 1) (#41)
    by Finis Terrae on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 07:20:24 PM EST


    Parent
    This is not luck (2.00 / 0) (#44)
    by Cream City on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 07:35:03 PM EST
    as it all was engineered, done by human design.

    Moses did not bring down from the mountain an 11th amendment on Dem caucuses or a 12th amendment on super-delegates or a 13th amendment on delegates in Florida and Michigan or a 14th amendment changing the 13th amendment on delegates -- or, for that matter, a 15th amendment constructing the U.S. economy.

    New evidence surfaced this week, unintentionally, that so much of this campaign has been in the works for at least two years.  But we will do our duty as voters, because what if they gave an election and no one came?

    Parent

    Thus my use of the word Unheimlich (5.00 / 1) (#45)
    by Salo on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 07:36:55 PM EST
    It's bizarre how it's all fallen into place in a such a dramatic way for the dude.

    Parent
    "New Evidence" (none / 0) (#49)
    by Faust on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 09:21:29 PM EST
    Tell us more.

    Parent
    The first debate (2.00 / 0) (#51)
    by Cream City on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 09:30:15 PM EST
    at Oxford, Mississippi aka Ole Miss to commemorate the September anniversary of a historic moment in the civil rights movement -- was that a coincidence?  No.  Amid the panicked coverage of whether the debate would occur, the campus provost let it slip that the campus was told to start planning for the debate two years ago.  And then she was hushed about it.

    It was as much of a coincidence as the Dem convention acceptance speech being on the anniversary of MLK's historic moment in the civil rights movement. . . .

    So I'm a bit skeptical about this engineering of the economic crisis at this historic moment.  I think of it as the Dems' own October surprise.

    Parent

    I see (none / 0) (#58)
    by Faust on Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 10:56:32 AM EST
    So you are fully on board the Obama conspiracy train.

    Parent
    Uncanny (none / 0) (#33)
    by Salo on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 06:40:25 PM EST
    for non-German speakers.

    Parent
    He's supporting (none / 0) (#36)
    by oldpro on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 06:50:48 PM EST
    the senate bill....and so is McCain.

    Parent
    Governor Palin (none / 0) (#27)
    by hitchhiker on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 06:32:11 PM EST
    just needs to make one really mock-able mistake . . . preferably something that would inspire Tina Fey to finish her off.

    When a politician becomes a target for a certain kind of mockery it's very hard to recover and be taken seriously.  Tina can pull this off because she's clearly having so much fun, which takes the "bitter crazy liberal" out of it .  . .most jokes about Bush became that instead of about him, and he pretty much escaped unharmed.

    Which is sad, because there will never be a more mockable person.

    And tragic, because we've been so hosed by his 8 years.  

    heh (5.00 / 1) (#40)
    by Salo on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 07:19:09 PM EST
    When a politician becomes a target for a certain kind of mockery it's very hard to recover and be taken seriously.

    It's called a media driven narrative.

    Gore was a victim of it. Kerry was as well. Bush benefitted for about 8 years from the press defending him at every electoral turn. Clinton probably got mugged in 2008 by the same pundit conspirators. Now they have transfered their hostility to Palin of all people and a small amount toward McCain (Bush's cupie doll?). It's all very mysterious, really.

    Parent

    Something like Dan quayle comparing himself (none / 0) (#55)
    by BrassTacks on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 09:35:52 PM EST
    To JFK?  That was a good one.  Didn't matter though.  

    VP debates  don't matter.  Although they can be fun.

    Parent

    Red state polls (none / 0) (#48)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 09:08:43 PM EST
    look at states like Georgia and Texas.  Obama is within 10 in both states.

    He isn't going to win those states but the fact that McCain's support is weakening there is a sign of structural problems for him that he won't be able to recover from.

    Any reason to be concerned (none / 0) (#54)
    by MoveThatBus on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 09:34:15 PM EST
    over why Reid only praised Dodd for getting the vote through the Senate tonight? Will it have an impact on Obama's numbers if people don't realize how hard he worked to get this bill passed to save the economy?

    I should think the passing of the bill would give Obama a nice bounce.

    If he can do the same in the House, maybe. (none / 0) (#56)
    by BrassTacks on Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 09:39:25 PM EST
    Assuming that the American public supports this bailout.  If they don't support it, they won't be so happy that Obama helped carry the day.  

    Parent
    More State Polls Point To Significant Obama Lead | 58 comments (58 topical)

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