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The Polls - 10/11

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 08:35:38 AM EST
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DKos R200 has Obama up 12, 52-40. Newsweek has Obama up 11, 52-41. Gallup has Obama up 10, 51-41. Battleground has Obama up 8, 51-43. Fox has Obama up 7, 46-39. Hotline has Obama up 7, 48-41.

In case you haven't noticed, the Presidential election is over.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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    The Polls - 10/11 | 49 comments (49 topical)
    As I wrote earlier (5.00 / 2) (#1)
    by Militarytracy on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 08:48:46 AM EST
    My heart and mind seemed to find agreement on this last night.  Obama wasn't my dream candidate but last night before nodding off I took a moment to imagine what it will be like to be a military family under an Obama presidency and I almost had to call sleeping off and clean the kitchen.  I had to calm myself by reminding myself that things are still super sucky with Democrats running Congress or I may have never slept last night.  I managed to squash down unnecessary excitment enough to rest.  One of my last thoughts though honestly was that if I was about 80 and had immediate family serving, the transition from the LUNATIC presidency to one of relative sanity would probably kill me.  It has taken a lot to tamp all this stuff seething inside down enough to make it through these last four years.

    Yeah, it certainly looks over ... (5.00 / 1) (#2)
    by Robot Porter on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 08:51:09 AM EST
    I was trying to figure out what I would do if I was placed in charge of the McCain campaign right now.

    And, frankly, I can't think of anything.

    Hire some hypnotists?

    ;)

    Over??? (5.00 / 3) (#3)
    by Lou Grinzo on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 08:52:44 AM EST
    Was it "over" when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor???

    OK, seriously--given what we saw the two most recent presidential elections, I won't consider this over until I see Barack Obama and Joe Biden sworn in to their new offices.

    Maybe I'm paranoid, maybe I'm cynical, and maybe I have an accurate view of how dirty and twisted politics can be in 21st century America.

    It's okay to be paranoid (5.00 / 0) (#4)
    by Militarytracy on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 08:53:59 AM EST
    Sometimes they really are out to get you.

    Parent
    Stop. Saying. Over. (5.00 / 0) (#10)
    by Claw on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 09:12:54 AM EST
    It is most certainly NOT over.  We have voter-purging, we don't know how Troopergate will end up impacting the election, plenty of negative and increasingly crazy ads to look forward to, and God knows what else.  So I need you, BTD, James Carville, Wolfson, and anyone else who thinks it's over to stop saying it.  I really worry about what this talk is going to do to our voter turnout/Obama fundraising.
    I never thought I'd see the Supreme Court install a moron as POTUS.  I didn't think I'd see said moron re-elected.  I think we know how that worked out.
    I hope you're right.  But we've earned the right and the responsibility to be paranoid.


    Parent
    according to Begala... (none / 0) (#30)
    by white n az on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 12:09:03 PM EST
    he's a high functioning moron...

    Parent
    I will also (5.00 / 0) (#9)
    by indy in sc on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 09:08:49 AM EST
    not be certain of this until someone announces 270 for Obama on Nov 4th.  I hope that folks on our side don't get complacent about this and continue to work hard to make it happen.  I know BTD is not advocating complacency--well he's not advocating action either--just telling it how he sees it; but there are way too many days left between today and Nov 4th for me to believe it's "over."

    Parent
    The Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? (none / 0) (#11)
    by Lil on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 09:43:27 AM EST


    Parent
    Forget it, he's rolling (none / 0) (#12)
    by CoralGables on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 09:49:04 AM EST


    Parent
    I dunno (5.00 / 1) (#6)
    by Steve M on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 09:02:51 AM EST
    this new revelation that Michelle Obama and Ayers' wife worked at the same law firm three years apart could be devastating.

    Heh (5.00 / 0) (#7)
    by indy in sc on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 09:03:55 AM EST


    Parent
    That'll cost Obama the wingnut vote for sure! (5.00 / 1) (#8)
    by rdandrea on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 09:07:51 AM EST
    n/t

    Parent
    Sidley & Austin (none / 0) (#23)
    by EddieInCA on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 11:18:04 AM EST
    I have a cousin in Chicago who works at Sidley there and a sister in law in D.C who works for Sidley in D.C.

    Are they guilty of hanging out with an unrepentant terrorist?

    Sheesh!

    Parent

    Your sister-in-law? (none / 0) (#26)
    by LarryInNYC on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 11:24:15 AM EST
    And you dare call yourself an American?  Off with your head!

    Parent
    I Am A Child of The Sixties (none / 0) (#45)
    by MTSINAIMAMA on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 02:55:22 PM EST
    And my husband is named Bill, so I guess I'm a domestic terrorist too.

    Parent
    In all seriousness (none / 0) (#39)
    by lilburro on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 01:03:01 PM EST
    I'm glad Obama is still up by so much, because Republicans have pushing the Ayers connection for a good week and a half and it seems not to have made a dent.  People may indeed remember the Ayers thing from the PA debate and just not care that it's being brought up again.

    Parent
    Maybe (none / 0) (#49)
    by Y Knot on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 06:14:48 PM EST
    Then again, maybe it's just not an issue.  Like the whole Wright thing.  We've got real problems in America.  Who cares about nonsense like that?

    Oh, but I agree.  It's October and we're Democrats.  There's gotta be SOME way we can still mess this up.

    Parent

    Florida (5.00 / 0) (#13)
    by CoralGables on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 09:51:35 AM EST
    New Florida poll by Rasmussen puts Obama at +3. That's nine of the last ten Florida polls that have Obama in the lead and a 4 point gain for Obama from the last Rasmussen poll three weeks ago.

    It must be over ... (5.00 / 1) (#14)
    by Robot Porter on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 10:00:41 AM EST
    because Zogby says it isn't.

    To add to your list (none / 0) (#5)
    by rdandrea on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 08:56:36 AM EST
    Rasmussen daily tracking was just posted a few minutes ago.  Obama by 7, 52 to 45.

    The wisdom of Yogi Berra (none / 0) (#15)
    by Coral on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 10:16:51 AM EST
    It's not over til it's over.

    But, still, I wouldn't take a bet on McCain/Palin.

    The day will be planned around it but (none / 0) (#16)
    by CoralGables on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 10:27:11 AM EST

    This is a must win game if their season is to be a success.

    There are certain incidents in life that make us who we are. For me, one of those was becoming a Gator fan for life. As someone that had their guts ripped out and curses at the TV every time there is a replay of Lindsey Scott Lindsey Scott Lyndsey Scott, let me remind you that even if the Gators don't knock off the defending Champions tonight, like kidney stones this too shall pass...

    but if it's anything like the gut ripper against Georgia in 1980, it will remain etched in your memory like a lifetime of kidney stones. Still, the season will not be over, not a failure, and we'll be back again next week decked out in orange and blue.
    Go Gators

    Florida/Georgia 1980

    And... (none / 0) (#17)
    by CoralGables on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 10:42:35 AM EST
    somehow just the thought of Lyndsey Scot made me post this in the wrong BTD thread

    Parent
    Your passionate support of (none / 0) (#19)
    by oculus on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 11:00:33 AM EST
    the Gators leaps from the page.

    Parent
    The Fat lady, guys (none / 0) (#18)
    by koshembos on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 10:53:54 AM EST
    Gore led Bush by 7 points a month before the election. The situation is totally different, the economic disaster will win the elections for Obama. Still, several weeks is a life time as the election gets closer.

    Obama is actually a lousy campaigner. He is not better than Gore or even Dukakis, but he goes against an imploding McCain.

    I'll feel it's over when (none / 0) (#20)
    by sallywally on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 11:07:09 AM EST
    the Dems have won all the litigation the Repubs will put up in swing states about "voter fraud" and Obama/Biden are sworn into office. Won all, including SCOTUS if it ends up there.

    Boy, Military Tracy, I can imagine that excitement.

    I have not been excited, but you got me thinking.

    As an "elder" and retiree whose large financial cushion was wrecked by my doing the two ultimate sins (selling low - the day we invaded Iraq - and spending the principal) and this latest total collapse, not to mention my pension, I am looking forward to paying no federal taxes on my miserably reduced income.

    And any other things that might help save and/or strengthen support systems for people with vulnerabilities in the USA.

    And the end of the wars....maybe. I'm getting convinced that maybe we should forget Afghanistan since it was so bad for so many countries who tried to win militarily. I tend to support, actually, Nader's idea of putting in place a huge public works program there (but I'd never vote for him).

    Obama was not my first choice either, but it will make so much difference to have a Dem in there.

    Even I, who have been watching since Reagan was first elected, have forgotten how much it can be better.

    Why in the world (5.00 / 1) (#27)
    by Cream City on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 11:48:24 AM EST
    do you think Dems can win the suits against ACORN?  The two ACORN workers indicted -- so far, more to come -- in my city will not win.  The evidence is blatant.

    Nor did Dems win in the cases in my city in 2004, such as several Dem voter registration workers who went too far, or the Dem candidate who voted twice in two different towns (yes, a Dem candidate) or the Dem Congresswoman's son caught vandalizing GOP vans, etc.  

    We do not win by defending or diminishing these actions.  To do so is to become as bad as the GOP vote frauders.  

    Worse, these actions give ammo to the GOP pushing to end same-day registration, to require voter ID, etc.  The more Dems defend actions as bad as the GOPs, the more they lose credibility to defend the laws we have in favor of real voters.

    Parent

    local election laws have much to say about this... (none / 0) (#32)
    by white n az on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 12:18:54 PM EST
    In many states, the registration filled out by the prospective voter must be turned in under penalty of law and thus even if the Acorn employee knew it to be fraudulent, he/she would be obligated under law to turn it in.

    Best not to get sucked into narratives created by the likes of Limbaugh and O'Reilly because they are wholly invested in beating back any efforts that seek to register voters not living in suburbs inclined to vote Republican.

    Those Republicans will always find ammo to attack Democrats so there is no reason to concern ourselves with their machinations...only to beat them back.

    Parent

    What's best is to not become (5.00 / 1) (#34)
    by Cream City on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 12:36:38 PM EST
    the enemy.  Your answer does not state the extent of what is required when returning false registrations.

    Parent
    Are you claiming that false registrations (5.00 / 1) (#37)
    by ThatOneVoter on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 12:53:18 PM EST
    are actually a large problem?!
    There is no evidence to support that contention that I have read.

    Parent
    Not a large problem at the polls (none / 0) (#40)
    by Cream City on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 02:16:03 PM EST
    unless they slow it down there.

    But potentially large problem in my legislature and perhaps others, where the GOP has been hammering and yammering for years to take away our same-day registration, to pass voter ID, etc.  

    That's what I keep saying here but so many do not want to see, as apparently they are not in states where we have fought hard to be comparatively free of constraints on real voters -- perhaps the only thing that has kept my state barely blue.  

    But fine, feed the GOP with this blatant vote fraud and let them win the fight to turn another state red.  Just remember you read here how it happened.

    Parent

    Btw, the slowdown at the polls (none / 0) (#47)
    by Cream City on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 03:49:23 PM EST
    may be because real voters, previous voters, are stopped.  What we're hearing here is that ACORN cards included reregistration of previous voters, and often with slightly different names -- a missing or different middle initial, for example -- or different addresses for people who haven't moved.

    I recently rechecked my registration to make sure it's not changed, so I won't be stopped at the polls, where lines will be long enough.  If the reregistration is wrong, it sending people home for IDs or witnesses -- and maybe they don't have time to come back.  Maybe others slowed down by all this also just give up to go to work or go home.

    But that's only a problem for those of us in swing states, states targeted by ACORN, and fools here could care less because it won't happen to them -- and because fraud only matters if it's done by the GOP.  Typical short-term Dem thinking, of course.  

    Parent

    Republicans challenge voters (none / 0) (#50)
    by ThatOneVoter on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 08:05:24 PM EST
    regardless of having a legitimate complaint. I don't understand your position.

    Parent
    CC, it's striking to me (2.33 / 3) (#35)
    by andgarden on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 12:38:42 PM EST
    that almost without fail, you come here to post the latest GOP talking points.

    Parent
    ya (5.00 / 1) (#42)
    by connecticut yankee on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 02:26:19 PM EST
    boggles the mind, eh?

    I often catch myself before responding. What's the point?

    Parent

    Will you want to win Wisconsin (none / 0) (#44)
    by Cream City on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 02:29:27 PM EST
    in 2012?  That's the point -- watch our GOP AG on this.  The gov already has had to veto voter ID passed by our legislature twice.  But he's not going to be gov again.

    Parent
    It's striking to me how stupid it is (none / 0) (#41)
    by Cream City on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 02:19:21 PM EST
    to not see the impact of this in the fight in states like mine.  But you Easterners sitting in solid-blue New York do not care to understand how it is in close states in the heartland -- how important it is to see it as the GOP does if we're going to be able to fight back against them.  

    Your arrogance is such a joke on the other board.

    Parent

    Yeah, ok, whatever (none / 0) (#46)
    by andgarden on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 03:00:20 PM EST


    Parent
    Here is the response from ACORN re: Indiana (none / 0) (#38)
    by wasabi on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 12:56:36 PM EST
    "The Republican Party is trying to use this attack to stop early voting from happening and disenfranchise tens of thousands of Lake County residents.

    ACORN has submitted 1.3 million applications nationally and over 23,000 in Indiana.

    ACORN engages in comprehensive quality control procedures, every card is called through three times.

    ACORN flags and turns in three kinds of cards, those that it can verify, those that are incomplete, and those that it flags as problematic. It turns those in labeled in a special way and are very conservative in terms of what it flags as problematic. It has stacks of problematic cover sheets.
    The Lake County Board of Elections refused to acknowledge the categories of cards when ACORN turned them in, or sign its paperwork. The Lake County Board knew about the questionable registrations today because ACORN flagged them for the board. For example, the Jimmy John's card is one that a caller had flagged and labeled as problematic. ACORN can get that caller to talk to the press.

    ACORN did Voter Registration from in July and some parts of August. As it was doing quality control ACORN noticed a large number of problematic cards and because of this it eased doing registration until late September when it could clear its quality control backlog.

    ACORN's recent cards from September and early October are not problematic at the same levels."

    So ACORN followed the law and submitted all
    voter registration forms>.  Lake County officials preferred to make a big stink out of the issue of fraudulent forms, perhaps because it required them to do additional work (and it sounds so good on TV).


    Parent

    The problem is the locales are required (none / 0) (#43)
    by Cream City on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 02:27:52 PM EST
    still to process even the thousands of forms flagged as suspicious.  An ACORN worker here admitted that it causes havoc for municipal offices, but that "it can't be helped."  The problem then in our city office is that they're behind in processing other new voter applications.  Last election, similar problems meant that all available city workers from other offices had to be pulled in to help at the last minutes, and some didn't do a process new to them well, with more problems at polls -- and, of course, other city offices and services fell behind in their work.

    Btw, that Indiana ACORN outfit listed its director as being in my city, several states away -- but when CNN went to the address, no one was there.  So what -- and from where -- is your source for Indiana ACORN now?  Not in Gary, I bet . . . that paragon of the democratic process, as we saw in the primary.

    Parent

    Off the top of my head. . . (none / 0) (#21)
    by LarryInNYC on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 11:13:57 AM EST
    I average that to about 9.25%.  Does that sound right?

    I just watched Caddyshack (none / 0) (#24)
    by oculus on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 11:23:33 AM EST
    whilst stuck in economy class seat on Air Canada.  Now on to Animal House.

    I forgot (none / 0) (#25)
    by TomStewart on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 11:23:43 AM EST
    just how many time I saw this movie as a kid. It was on HBO when we first got it and I watched this movie every time it was on! Not only was it funny, but it had swearing! nudity! Everything a kid could want!

    And Karen Allen ta boot! Sigh.

    Don't Count Chickens before.... (none / 0) (#28)
    by BackFromOhio on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 11:55:23 AM EST
    If I recall correctly, in the break-down of a recent poll BTD summarized here, the poll indicated that the 2 issues on which McCain/ Repubs are still seen as stronger/better than Obama/Dems are national security and Iraq. If there is a major development in the mid-East, we do not know what will happen.  
    And we don't know how the absence of any paper trail in many key states will affect the election. According to report by Lou Dobbs, the lines at polls may be significant given anticipated turnout and the ever-present possibility that electronic machines will breakdown on election day. In certain states, there have been thousands of voters purged from the rolls over the last year or so, and many of these purges are due merely to typos in the entry of names/addresses of voters into the system.  To me, one of the biggest failures of this Democratic Congress was in not passing Federal legislation correcting the evils of commission & omission of HAVA.  

    Really, I think. . . (none / 0) (#31)
    by LarryInNYC on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 12:17:10 PM EST
    the issues that Americans consider Obama stronger on are whatever issues McCain has been discussing recently.  Because, despite occasional flashes of rationality McCain has basically become toxic to whatever policies he endorses (witness the mortgage bailout).

    So if there's a major issue and McCain starts talking about Iraq or national security, it will probably shift some voters to the Democrats on those issues.

    Parent

    Not Over (none / 0) (#29)
    by pluege on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 11:55:52 AM EST
    The margin of victory is VERY important. The more landslide the better. (which BTW is where the choice of Obama most likely shaved 5%-10% off the dem margin of victory. Not a bad thing to leverage a dem landslide year to get our first minority president, but at a cost of banishing republicanism from the political scene for a generation is a steep price.)

    Some Other Polls (none / 0) (#33)
    by BackFromOhio on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 12:32:04 PM EST
    I just took a look at the polls up at Realclearpolitics.com.  

    Ohio Newspaper Poll has McCain up by 2
    National Polls reported there with Barr & Nader in the mix have Obama up by an average of 4.2.

    The poll from Ohio, if accurate, is disconcerting. In a year when the economic news is so dire, and when Ohioans have been suffering more than the national average from job loss, the Dems should be running away with the election there. Could it be that the negative campaigning is working there? Or are there some serious flaws in this poll I'm not aware of?

    I think that poll (none / 0) (#36)
    by MKS on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 12:40:36 PM EST
    has a sample size of about 600 iirc.....It also was an improvement for Obama in that poll.....

    One poll is not the be-all and end-all.  Overall, most polls show Obama slightly ahead in Ohio.

    Parent

    Close -- 876 sampled (none / 0) (#48)
    by Cream City on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 03:53:55 PM EST
    with an MOE of 3%.  So still valid and reliable -- and it is not the first for this group, so it has utility in tracking, too.

    More of concern might be this finding in it:

    16 percent of Ohioans still remain undecided or say they "might change" their minds before Election Day.

    In many states, it's still going to be decided by the now-undecideds -- or those who just don't want to say what they already have decided, of course.

    Parent

    The Polls - 10/11 | 49 comments (49 topical)