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The Polls - 10/14

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 08:30:17 AM EST
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Only new results (no WaPo (Obama by 10) for example). DKos/R2000 has Obama up 11, 52-41. Zogby has a tracker too and he has Obama up 6, 49-43. Gallup tracker (new LV model) has Obama up 10, 53-43. IBD/TIPP has Obama up 2, 45-43. Ras says Obama by 5, 50-45.

In terms of state polling, Q Poll issued a bunch of state polls. Obama has locked up WI, MI and MN (which should surprise no one) and he holds a significant lead in CO, 52-43.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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    The Polls - 10/14 | 55 comments (55 topical)

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    Where is my daily affirmation? (5.00 / 2) (#1)
    by ruffian on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 08:45:08 AM EST
    BTD, you did not tell us the race is over. Should we worry?

    what! (5.00 / 0) (#2)
    by TruthMatters on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 08:47:16 AM EST
    BTD didn't say the election is over! McCain's comeback is working people!

    here we go hold your hats McCain is going to pul...

    yeah i can't we all know its over. thank goodness too, I can't wait till this election is over.

    Parent

    Just wanted to give him a chance to (2.00 / 0) (#4)
    by ruffian on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 08:51:37 AM EST
    drive it home.

    Parent
    I should have used the snark tag (none / 0) (#51)
    by ruffian on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 03:37:57 PM EST
    from Ambinder at the Atlantic.com

    CBS News and the New York Times have a big new poll out tonight, with the head-to-head numbers released at 6:30 ET.  The poll will spur a lot of discussion....

    The news networks have released a teaser of sorts: nearly 90% of Americans think the country is headed on the wrong track; seven percent thing it is headed in the right direction. That's half of what it was a month ago.

    No incumbent party has ever come close to winning with the 'right track' number in single. digits. Has the right track number ever been in single digits.  I'll say it - the race is over.

    Parent

    RCP just added (as far as I've seen) (5.00 / 0) (#5)
    by prose on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 08:55:14 AM EST
    the TIPP poll.  Why haven't they added the Research2000 poll yet?

    Hackery (5.00 / 0) (#22)
    by Faust on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 10:21:36 AM EST


    Parent
    i'll see your HACKERY (5.00 / 2) (#32)
    by wystler on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 11:01:08 AM EST
    ... and raise you a CHERRY-PICK

    Parent
    flim-flammery (5.00 / 0) (#39)
    by coigue on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 01:20:59 PM EST
    horse-hockery
    razzle-dazzlery


    Parent
    Razzle-dazzlery? (5.00 / 1) (#45)
    by MKS on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 02:53:23 PM EST
    Can't have that now, can we?....

    Parent
    It'll be over (5.00 / 3) (#8)
    by OldCity on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 09:06:16 AM EST
    on November 5th.

    The time remaining is an eternity in an election.  McCain's fortunes turned on a dime.  It's certainly not a long shot to think that there might be some event outside of Obama's control that could negatively affect his numbers.

    Really, we have to see if McCain is able to get his campaign together and on message, a message that resonates.  His recent efforts have been sort of pathetic, unless one considers potentially slanderous allegations (wholly unfounded) worthy of praise.

    I truly don't think McCain has internalized the degree to which he's harmed his brand.  He has really done damage to his reputation and his legacy, though I would agrue that his legacy, as popularly defined (maverick, concilliator, etc), is an utter fiction.

    Ohio and Florida are going to be key.  Crist's decision to remove himself from the active campaign is an indicator of how he views McCain's chances.

    I think a number of prominent GOP'ers are appalled at the rhetoric and the strategy that McCain is utilizing.  I'm not going to blame McCain's campaign.  I'm going to blame him.  His campaign carries some echoes of HRC's...the executive too detached to force consistency, depress contradictory statements and get a monolithic strategy in place.  

    Ulimately, I think that if Obama succeeds, and I hope he does, that it will be a triumph of strategy and certainly of management.  the Obama staff has not really deviated and they reflect his attitude and his outlook.  He's managed his group very well.  We have to face facts; he defeated Clinton and he's got McCain on the ropes.  A pretty face and nice words aren't enopugh to do that.  You need to have an extremely well managed campaign, the respect of your campaign staff and a strategic and ideological vision that is superior to that of your opponent.  If nothing else, Obama deserves our respect for his abilities in that regard.          

    I think there are some clear ... (5.00 / 0) (#12)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 09:20:46 AM EST
    signs that the pros in the campaign and phoning it in.

    If the top level people in the campaign were on their game, they would never have allowed that woman who made the "Arab" comment to ask a question.

    Or that ridiculous Pastor to speak the other day.

    Parent

    Who knows what is happening with their team. (none / 0) (#29)
    by lilburro on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 10:48:23 AM EST
    I know the McCain campaign manager (or one of them) went on TV and blamed the press for associating them with a few crackpots (iow, the racists that have made headlines the past few days)...but you would think the McCain camp would at least be motivated to do something about that, say something further about the questionable things at those rallies, based on fear of bad press alone!  There is bad press, and there is BAD PRESS.  What undecided voter will watch that older guy mooning for the camera with his Obama bumper sticker and Curious George stuffed animal and think, wow, I really want to be a part of that!  

    For his own sake McCain should do more to distance himself from that behavior, I would think.  You know, a statement like "this despicable behavior is a thing we must leave in the past, and we must focus now on the changes we need to make in this country and I will fight blah blah" would not be that hard.

    Parent

    Another "kill him" remark (5.00 / 0) (#46)
    by MKS on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 02:55:53 PM EST
    at a Palin rally today...And she is complaining on Rush Limbaugh that people are trying to shut her up?

    Parent
    I used to think that (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by ruffian on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 09:22:02 AM EST
    McCain's experience would be a stark contrast to Obama in these troubled times.  

    But I did not know McCain was such a crackpot. He has exposed himself, and I don't think he can unring that bell in three weeks.

    So, I admit I was wrong in worrying about the McCain-Obama matchup.  I said many times it was the only matchup I worried about.

    My doubts about Obama as an effective president and representative of my political views are on record. But I no longer doubt he will win.

    Parent

    glad America has come to see (none / 0) (#31)
    by wystler on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 10:59:04 AM EST
    But I did not know McCain was such a crackpot.

    You, and a massive quantity of other American voters and members of the press.

    On the other hand, folks who worked closely with him in the Senate (with the possible exception of John Kerry) seemed to know something.

    He has been a lousy coalition builder, despite his oft-repeated reach-across-the-aisle claims: witness the first bail-out vote, when he was present, and the second, held during his absence.

    Being a "maverick" often means poor marks in "works and plays well with others."

    And then there's that anger management issue ...

    Parent

    Can't be a maverick and a leader (none / 0) (#34)
    by ruffian on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 11:13:13 AM EST
    at the same time, someone said this weekend. I think that aobut sums it up.

    Parent
    On electoral-vote.com (none / 0) (#40)
    by coigue on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 01:23:27 PM EST
    McCain has reached 270 EV 2x since May.

    TWO TIMES. Both after the convention.

    Obama...many many many.

    This is not a close election, or a flippy floppy one.

    Parent

    The only poll which counts (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by scribe on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 09:10:28 AM EST
    is the one with real voters casting real ballots, which concludes on Novewmber 4.  All the other polls, while useful, are so much hot air.

    But, to reassure you, the kids in the Weekly Reader/Scholastic poll (I remember taking part!) got it right - Obama, running away with it.

    The only ones the kids have gotten wrong, since the poll started in 1940:  1948 and 1968.  That's pretty a good record.

    1948, heh ... (5.00 / 0) (#11)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 09:14:12 AM EST
    kids love a pencil mustache!

    Parent
    And think about it (none / 0) (#14)
    by patriotgames on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 09:40:42 AM EST
    '48 and '68 had very popular candidates that the media was behind. Everyone thought Dewey would win. (and in '68 nobody really knew who would win)

    I bet it is going to be FAR worse than BTD thinks.

    I still say that Obama will be lucky to get 100 EV.

    Parent

    lol (5.00 / 2) (#21)
    by Faust on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 10:19:53 AM EST
    thank you for your regular comic relief.

    Parent
    Yes, it will probably worse than BTD says (5.00 / 2) (#33)
    by ThatOneVoter on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 11:03:03 AM EST
    ----for McCain. I could see him losing by 15%.

    Parent
    he hee (5.00 / 1) (#41)
    by coigue on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 01:24:17 PM EST


    Parent
    Come on, you can say it. . . (5.00 / 1) (#43)
    by LarryInNYC on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 01:55:24 PM EST
    you mean pee pants over there is only going to get 100 electoral votes.  Don't you?

    Parent
    More SUSA state polls this morning (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by CoralGables on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 09:46:44 AM EST
    Pennsylvania Obama +15
    Ohio            Obama +5
    Oregon         Obama +17

    I really want to see (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by andgarden on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 09:51:02 AM EST
    what they have to say about Florida. I know they've got to have something coming soon.

    Parent
    I've been really wondering about Fla. (none / 0) (#19)
    by Lil on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 10:04:21 AM EST
    Is it sewn up. It seems like the candidates are hanging out a lot in the mid west. Why aren't they spending more time in Fla. Makes me think it may be over there already. Wishful thinking?

    Parent
    Florida is never sewn up (5.00 / 1) (#20)
    by andgarden on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 10:17:38 AM EST


    Parent
    I agree (none / 0) (#24)
    by Lil on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 10:34:52 AM EST
    but why do you think the candidates are leaving it to their surrogates to go there? Maybe they are saving Fla. for last and we'll see more campaining there in a couple of weeks? Curious about your theory, as always.

    Parent
    Who knows (none / 0) (#25)
    by andgarden on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 10:36:12 AM EST
    Obama seems content to let his massive TV buys do the talking.

    In a state like Florida, that's not much worse than living there IMO.

    Parent

    Huff Post headline says the kids (none / 0) (#26)
    by oculus on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 10:45:47 AM EST
    aren't going to FL to pressure their grandparents to vote for Obama.  

    Parent
    Huff Post headline says the kids (none / 0) (#27)
    by oculus on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 10:45:47 AM EST
    aren't going to FL to pressure their grandparents to vote for Obama.  

    Parent
    I'm sorry... (5.00 / 1) (#30)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 10:55:26 AM EST
    ...could you repeat that?  :)

    Parent
    Tactical error (none / 0) (#38)
    by ruffian on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 12:36:28 PM EST
    not having the election over spring break

    Parent
    Sarah Silverman and the Great Schlep (none / 0) (#47)
    by MKS on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 03:01:56 PM EST


    Parent
    I agree, but (none / 0) (#49)
    by Amiss on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 03:25:13 PM EST
    Charlie Crist blowing off McCain to go to Disneyworld and telling reporters about McCain Events " I will be there if I have the time" certainly did not hurt Obama at all. For the first time since this all started, as a Florida resident, I believe it will go democratic.

    Parent
    Actually, they have all been in FL (none / 0) (#28)
    by ruffian on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 10:47:35 AM EST
    as recently as last week.  We do not feel ignored.  Plus, this is a huge media state - we get all the ads.  Lucky us.

    Parent
    They are making (none / 0) (#50)
    by Amiss on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 03:26:10 PM EST
    up for all the neglect we felt during the primaries.

    Parent
    wo. (none / 0) (#23)
    by Faust on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 10:22:22 AM EST
    I like that Ohio result.

    Parent
    I think (none / 0) (#3)
    by connecticut yankee on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 08:50:30 AM EST
    I think gallup is 10 RV and 7 LV, at least that's the first paragraph. I didnt read any more.  I read that they are using multiple LV models now but I stick with the headline numbers.

    I heard on TV today (none / 0) (#6)
    by lilburro on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 08:57:04 AM EST
    that in one of his speeches yesterday, McCain used the word "fight" 18 times.  

    I doubt the "John McCain-as-Hillary-Clinton-Except-With-Policies-That-Mostly-Benefit-The-Rich" shtick will work.  But it will be interesting to see how he plays that out at the debate.

    They probably can't believe after all that William Ayers stuff Obama is doing so well.  

    Yeah - Hillary was fighting for regular (none / 0) (#7)
    by ruffian on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 08:59:30 AM EST
    people. McCain fights against them.  I think they will get the difference.  

    Parent
    I saw the speech, he was fired up ... (5.00 / 1) (#10)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 09:12:58 AM EST
    and ready to nap.

    :)

    Parent

    The Winning Margin (none / 0) (#17)
    by CoralGables on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 09:57:13 AM EST
    BTD has long claimed it's over. Larry says a win by Bo Derek proportions (or Kim Basinger rounding up)

    Is a 200 pt EV margin of victory possible? Barring an Obama blunder in the last debate, the stars are lining up for that kind of margin.

    Did Larry reveal his (none / 0) (#18)
    by oculus on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 10:00:06 AM EST
    methodology yet?  LV, RV, NRV, weight for party ID, etc.?  

    Parent
    I use the LV model. . . (5.00 / 1) (#36)
    by LarryInNYC on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 11:37:15 AM EST
    the "Larry Voter" model.

    Parent
    wow (none / 0) (#35)
    by connecticut yankee on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 11:14:26 AM EST
    Battleground just came out with a hefty poll for Obama. Obama up 13 (LV).

    If nothing changes... (none / 0) (#37)
    by mike in dc on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 11:50:58 AM EST
    ...I will consider this thing over one week from now.  The last debate will have been completed, and there will be only two more weekly news cycles remaining.  The Ayers thing has no traction.  Bringing up Wright while down a half dozen points or more would look as desperate as it actually is, and it could be shut down pretty quickly.  We're not going to have a miraculous economic recovery in the next 3 weeks, and Bush will still be President going into election day.

    If Obama's still up by 6-8 points next Tuesday, this thing is basically over.

    A signficant lead in Colorado. (none / 0) (#42)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 01:35:38 PM EST
    Gee, I wonder who would have ever predicted that--what with our state being populated entirely by religious whackjobs and pistol packing gun nuts.  

    Maybe the whackjobs (none / 0) (#48)
    by MKS on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 03:04:21 PM EST
    still are with the Republicans but the gun nuts are voting Democratic this year?

    Parent
    My CO brother says there is a push (none / 0) (#52)
    by oculus on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 05:16:32 PM EST
    to get second-home owners to register to vote in CO.  

    Parent
    Haven't heard anything about that. (none / 0) (#54)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 07:09:35 PM EST
    I'd imagine the people in those income brackets aren't real likely to be Obama supporters.  

    Parent
    I agree w/you. (none / 0) (#55)
    by oculus on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 07:14:37 PM EST
    He did say he expects Obama to win CO.

    Parent
    The broadcast polls are only one part of the story (none / 0) (#44)
    by heymisssuze on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 02:15:28 PM EST
    See the article at www.electiondefensealliance.org/Primaries_2008_Managed_Manipulation

    The last paragraphs before the "Conclusion" mention the Democratic Party's "internal" polls, which the Dems use for to read their own chances. Since the Repugs have been winning elections in greater numbers (aided by underhanded methods), they harrass the big polling companies that predict Democratic wins as "getting it wrong". This scares the pollsters into giving their statistics a right-leaning "correction." So if the internal polls show the Dems with even bigger leads, which they would if the "regular" polls are still slanted to the right, we should be VERY SUSPICIOUS if Obama DOESN'T win!

    Obama (none / 0) (#53)
    by shaharazade on Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 06:46:12 PM EST
    so Armando hopefully he will win?  Why have you chosen to take yourself off to this strange part of the net which while Democratic is so negative to Obama? the best candidate I have ever seen not counting JFK when I was a toddler. Are you ever coming back to mixing it up with those of us who love you and yet are not of the same strain you have aliened yourself to?  I come here I read yet I know this is a world which is not reflecting the real. It's stuck somewhere on the fringe.  So BT come back to the big tent we need you.

    The Polls - 10/14 | 55 comments (55 topical)

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