Bump: I'm bumping this from yesterday where it got buried under our debate posts.
A new report, the Power of the Latino Vote (pdf), predicts 9 million Latino, Hispanic and immigrant citizens will vote on November 4.
The road to the White House passes through key “battleground” states with large numbers of Latino and immigrant voters like Florida, Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico. These voters are also flexing their muscle in Senate and House races across the nation.
[More...]
While Latinos care about the economy, jobs, healthcare and national security like every other American, a candidate’s stance on immigration reform has become a threshold question for many Latinos. As the immigration debate has heated up these last few years, they are paying closer attention to how candidates engage on the issue. To them, it is not just a question of visas but values and whether they and their families feel welcomed in the United States.
The hard work of the We Are America Alliance/a> is bearing fruit. Following the 2006 marches -- 4 million people in 120 American cities -- community, immigrant rights and ethnic organizations formed a joint alliance to launch a national immigrant voter registration drive.
The goal of the alliance was to register 500,000 new voters. Today they are at 468,541.
AZ - 18,166
CA - 87,544
CO - 33,573
FL - 34,345
IL - 27,026
MI - 8,000
NV - 51,782
NH - 680
NM - 80,477
NY - 16,640
PA - 34,490
TX - 25,173
VA - 635
Last month, the Pew Hispanic Center released a new national survey (pdf). The findings:
93% of Latinos nationwide said that immigration was important to them.
They see their situation as deteriorating.
They oppose key immigration enforcement provisions.
The Hispanic community is approaching 46 million, or 15.4% of the total U.S. civilian non-institutional population.
More than four-in-five Hispanics (81%) say that immigration enforcement should be left mainly to the federal authorities rather than the local police; 76% disapprove of workplace raids; 73% disapprove of the criminal prosecution of undocumented immigrants who are working without authorization; and 70% disapprove of the criminal prosecution of employers who hire undocumented immigrants. A narrow majority (53%) disapproves of a requirement that employers check a federal database to verify the legal immigration status of all prospective hires.
How will they vote?
About half (49%) of all Latinos say that the Democratic Party has more concern for Hispanics, while just 7% say the Republican Party has more concern. Since 2004, the share of Hispanics who say that the Democratic Party has more concern for Hispanics has increased by 14 percentage points. Most of this gain for the Democrats comes from a reduction in the share of Latinos who say there is no difference between the parties.
As between McCain and Obama:
Among Hispanics who are registered voters, a majority say that Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama is the better candidate for Hispanics (55%) and for immigrants (50%). Just 11% of Hispanic registered voters say that Republican presidential nominee John McCain is better for Hispanics, and just 12% say he is better for immigrants. The remainder see no difference between the two candidates on this front.
Overall, Hispanic registered voters support Obama over McCain by 66% to 23% (Lopez and Minushkin 2008).
... more than three-quarters (77%) of Latinos who reported that they voted for Clinton in the primaries now say they are inclined to vote for Obama in the fall election, while just 8% say they are inclined to vote for McCain.
78% of these voters say they are following the election very closely. They could make the difference in swing states. Take Nevada for example. Bush carried the state by 20,000 in 2004. This year We Are America registered more than 50,000 new voters in the state.
