I'm still concerned about some last ditch effort at a smear, but the media seems to be standing up for Obama, and knocking down the smears pretty well.

1. Looks like a ten point popular vote victory is well within reach (although certainly not assured based on the current polling).

2. Those states which we were supposed to have lost any chance of winning due to the primary kerfluffle are now safe or leaning Democratic.

3. Recent polling shows that the biggest factors turning people off to McCain are his nasty attacks (an aspect of his fundamental personality) and his selection of Palin.

There's simply too much time left to make broad assumptions.  The race has been so dynamic, with so many short-term turnarounds, that I think it ill-advised to do more than hope.

If he does win, wow is he going to have a challenge.  He will have a mandate to effect change, for sure.  Unfortunately for us Democrats, our Achilles heel will alomost immediately cause discomfort.

To wit:  the diversified interest groups within the party are probably not going to give him the time to get his feet under himself and assess the most instant problems; they will agitate for speedy attention to their pet issues.

The problem is money.  The government does not have it and tax increases to raise it could result in a repeat of 1994 in short order.  Democrats will have to be realistic and allow an Obama administration to prioritize and to place some issues on the back burner. the "bailout" will be costly and affect the government's liquidity.  Even if we were looking to have jobs programs similar to the New Deal programs designed to create and shore up infrastructure, we'd still have to wait for all sorts of legislation to get passed to make it possible, and deal with myriad federal/state hegemony issues.  

If this is the outcome on November 4, with no one reaching 370 -- sheesh, then what?

I'm sure we will hear Repubs screaming about vote fraud, and there will be lawsuits galore
(probably from both sides).  

I don't even want to picture it in my mind.

Also, one other thing.  

I voted yesterday in a special Democratic primary election here in Ohio, to fill the seat of the late Congressperson Stephanie Tubbs Jones.

We used the M-100 electronic voting system manufactured by Election Systems & Software (formerly Diebold).

I personally found this voting method to be incredibly annoying to use, especially the need to tear off a small tab from the bottom of the ballot.  

Whoever printed the ballots did a really lousy job with the perforation for the tab.  It was very hard to tear off, unless you were extremely careful.  Otherwise, you would probably end up with a big rip in your ballot, and then have to fill it out again.

The voter is then supposed to put the paper ballot into a scanner, which electronically logs and calculates your vote.

Poll workers are supposed to be at least 20 feet away from the scanner, to prevent them from seeing how a person votes.  This was not possible at my polling place, due to location of electrical outlets and no extension cords. Poll workers were about 2 feet away from the scanner (ballots need to be submitted face up).

Not that it matters, because there is a good chance of a poll worker seeing your ballot anyway, while you try to remove the poorly perforated tab from the bottom.  (This is required to be done at the poll workers' table).

A friend of mine was a booth worker, and he said that the whole thing was a nightmare, because the coordinator for this location did not show up, so the other poll workers had to figure everything out by the seat of their pants.

Nevertheless, election went basically smoothly, due to very low turn-out.

Pollster Obama 320-155 with 7 tossup states (all Bush states in 2004)

Where is the political will to push the New Deal agenda going to come from?

The Obama campaign always seemed to me to have a little sign on the underside that said (in small print),"brought to you by the Bureau of the Single Idea" - the election of Sen Obama IS the central idea of the campaign.

Obama talks part of a good game--then undercuts it with comments to private fundraisers by saying he won't be able to enact some expensive programs, like healthcare and some education spending.

Who knows what Obama thinks about a new New Deal? And how will he do that given that he thinks SocSec needs "fixing"? Medicare?

Who will get him to see we need a New Deal? According to a post by Lambert, Obama's taken time to call the Blue Dog Dems--what about the Democratic wing of the Democractic Party?

InsAdv/PollPos Obama +4
DataMar         Obama +5

I'm not being insulting either.  What do you mean?  What kind of New Deal?  What sort of inititives should the government be part of?  

Let's also not forget that the rather large war we were in had a role to play in recovery, too.

North Carolina Democrat Hagan in Fierce Fight to Take-Away Republican Dole's US Senate Seat: In an election for US Senator from North Carolina today, incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole and Democratic challenger Kay Hagan finish effectively even, 44% Dole, 43% Hagan, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WTVD-TV Raleigh. Libertarian Chris Cole, gets 7% today, which, when combined with 5% of voters who tell SurveyUSA they are undecided in the US Senate contest, means that 1 in 8 voters today vote for neither Dole nor Hagan.
Dole leads among men, among whites, among middle-aged voters and in Southern and Coastal NC. The contest is effectively even in greater Charlotte, greater Greensboro and greater Raleigh. Hagan leads among women, among seniors, among blacks, among pro-choice voters, among Moderates and among Independents. SurveyUSA models black turnout at 20% in this poll. If black turnout is higher, Hagan will outperform these numbers.

And the Presidential Race:

100K NC Blacks May Determine the Next President, the Governor of NC, and whether Democrats Have a Filibuster-Proof Senate: Black turnout is key to forecasting not just who gets North Carolina's 15 electoral votes, but also whether the state elects a Democratic Governor and whether the state contributes a critical take-away to the Democratic effort to get to 60 Senators in Washington DC. McCain today leads 2:1 among whites. Obama leads 17:1 among blacks. In SurveyUSA's model, blacks are 20% of the North Carolina electorate. However: If black turnout increases, with Barack Obama at the top of the ticket, from approximately 750,000 NC black voters to 850,000 NC black voters, it is possible that Obama wins North Carolina's 15 electoral votes, that Kay Hagan defeats Elizabeth Dole in the US Senate contest, and that Beverly Perdue defeats Pat McCrory in the North Carolina Governor's race. See the SurveyDNA^TM brand hypothetical data set that gives you an exclusive window into how things change with slightly larger black turnout.

"With party strategists fearing a bloodbath at the polls, GOP officials are shifting to triage mode, determining who can be saved and where to best spend their money."
-Politico

Good for us (fewer TV ads to be annoyed with/effectively putting Schaffer out of the race), but bad for the more competative races around the country.  

"Among the challenges for Schaffer is that the roiling political landscape is also forcing Republican backers to triage resources, scurrying to protect vulnerable incumbents at the cost of open seats like Colorado's.
After together spending nearly $2 million in Colorado Senate ads in the last two weeks of September, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Freedom's Watch - two of Schaffer's biggest backers - suddenly pulled out.

A new CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corporation survey in Virginia released Wednesday indicates that Barack Obama holds a 10 point lead over McCain, 53 percent to 43 percent among likely voters.

[. . .]

It's a similar story in Colorado, a state that hasn't voted for a Democrat in the race for the White House in 16 years. The new poll indicates Senator Obama, D-Illinois, holds a 4 point edge over McCain, 51 percent to 47 percent.

And in Georgia, a state that President Bush won by 17 points over Kerry 4 years ago and that hasn't voted for the Democrats in a presidential contest in 16 years, the poll suggests a much narrower single digit lead for Senator McCain, R-Arizona, 53 percent to 45 percent.

[. . .]

The poll also indicates Obama has a five point advantage over McCain in Florida, 51 percent to 46 percent. Twenty-seven electoral votes are up for grabs in Florida. President Bush took the state by five points in the last election.

In Missouri, which President Bush won in the past two presidential contests, the new poll suggests it's basically a dead heat, with McCain holding a slim one point advantage over Obama, 49 percent to 48 percent.

You've already said you won't withhold your vote.  What else is there?