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WaPo Poll: Obama By 9

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 05:35:13 PM EST
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Barack Obama maintains a significant lead over John McCain in the latest WaPo poll:

The new survey shows Obama leading McCain by 53 percent to 44 percent among likely voters, little changed from a separate Post-ABC News poll released last Monday. Among all registered voters, Obama's lead is 10 percentage points, 52 percent to 42 percent.

Still Obama's election.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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    WaPo Poll: Obama By 9 | 23 comments (23 topical)

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    It's a new tracking poll (none / 0) (#1)
    by bluegal on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 05:39:48 PM EST
    because we don't have enough!

    Good news though.

    Two things to worry about with polls like this... (none / 0) (#2)
    by barryluda on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 05:40:08 PM EST
    First is that Obama supporters become overconfident with volunteers becoming complacent and voters not voting.  It looks like the Obama campaign is doing everything right to minimize this.

    Second, and perhaps more troubling, is that the "put the country first" McCain will show how much of an unprincipled liar he is and start to bring up Rev. Wright.  HuffPost is reporting that:

    McCain's campaign manager says he is reconsidering using Barack Obama's relationship with Reverend Jeremiah Wright as a campaign issue
    When you say 'We may bring up Rev. Wright' (5.00 / 0) (#3)
    by steviez314 on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 05:45:18 PM EST
    enough times, it's like you've already brought him up and it will be old news (even older than it is) by the time they do it for real.

    Parent
    It'll never be old news (none / 0) (#4)
    by robrecht on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 05:54:25 PM EST
    There's a subpopulation of this country that will eat it up over and over again.  Shame.

    Parent
    I'm actually surprised they chose Ayers (none / 0) (#5)
    by Teresa on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 05:59:28 PM EST
    instead of Wright until now. Maybe because McCain said he wouldn't bring up Wright. With the economy, I don't think it will matter either way.

    Parent
    Ayers... (none / 0) (#7)
    by Coral on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 06:08:06 PM EST
    What a dud that turned out to be. Wright is old news, and will be treated as such.

    We're down to subtexts of race and red-baiting, and I'm anxiously awaiting election day.

    BTW, both my daughters voted absentee ballot today. Alas, MA, so it doesn't mean much for Obama, but also against eliminating the state income tax -- which would mean more regressive property and sales taxes, and poorer schools & communities.

    Parent

    No early voting in MA? (none / 0) (#9)
    by Teresa on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 06:30:56 PM EST
    I wish you well on the income tax vote. It is the kiss of death for any politician in TN to even mention it so we just continue to pay our high sales tax.

    Parent
    he also said, (none / 0) (#20)
    by cpinva on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 11:02:47 PM EST
    Maybe because McCain said he wouldn't bring up Wright.

    his would be an honorable campaign.

    i have some shares in the brooklyn bridge. they're for sale, below par. interested? :)

    Parent

    Electoral College (none / 0) (#6)
    by sallywally on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 06:07:56 PM EST
    is basically a bunch of state elections, isn't it? Where is Obama on that map?

    There have been polls showing him ahead in Ohio, but the CBS News put he and McCain neck and neck here.

    With the efforts being made to disqualify Dem voters before and even after the election if Obama wins, I'm very uncomfortable.  

    Common Dreams has a bit about Ohio today.

    A Presidential election (none / 0) (#15)
    by cal1942 on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 07:36:48 PM EST
    isn't one election it's 51 elections.

    Try www.realclearpolitics.com

    Find polls, click on polls.  On the poll page, which features the national polls, click on electoral maps.

    The great thing about the electoral maps is that polling information for each state is available by clicking on the state.

    RCP currently shows Obama solid or leaning in states totalling 286 electoral votes.

    Parent

    One other worry that polls may be wrong... (none / 0) (#8)
    by barryluda on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 06:21:41 PM EST
    I just visited my daughter in college (Iowa).  Lots of students are voting early (which is great).  There is clearly a lot of peer pressure to "vote Obama".  So much so that it was obvious (to me, at least) that one of her roommates is actually pro-McCain, but she tried not to let on since my daughter and the other roommate were so vocally pro-Obama.

    OK, maybe I'm just paranoid.  But I think that while we have made progress so that people are ashamed to be racist, we've not made so much progress and some people will still vote based on race alone.

    I can't wait until November 5th.

    And Ras $h*ts all over (none / 0) (#10)
    by andgarden on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 06:34:28 PM EST
    with disappointing results in Fl and OH.

    Again, it's all about VA and CO.

    I'll make you feel better: (none / 0) (#11)
    by steviez314 on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 06:44:08 PM EST
    RAS in OH has Obama winning Non-whites by 67-28.  Yeah, sure!  Just putting that back to Kerry levels, with 2004 turnout makes the new OH result Obama +1.

    Parent
    Interal McCain sources (none / 0) (#12)
    by zvs888 on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 06:54:42 PM EST
    Believe that they will lose Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado but take Nevada and Virginia.

    The big surprise there is that they think they can lock down Virginia and Nevada.

    The problem which is obvious, is that Obama gets 274 under that scenario, so they're making a mad run at Pennsylvania according to those sources.

    Either way, he's boxed in with nowhere to go since he's definitely going to lose Pennsylvania if he loses Colorado I'd think...

    Parent

    The PA polls (none / 0) (#16)
    by cal1942 on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 07:45:56 PM EST
    show that McCain hasn't got a snowball's.

    I wonder why he's wasting time and money there.

    Obama has all of Kerry's and Gore's states.  That's not enough to win but either CO or VA wins it for Obama. He doesn't need both, just one of the two.

    Parent

    Writing off Colorado before PA??? (none / 0) (#18)
    by andgarden on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 09:25:49 PM EST
    Either the public pollsters are wrong, or McCain's are. Otherwise, this just doesn't make any sense.

    Parent
    The Word (none / 0) (#19)
    by zvs888 on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 10:45:39 PM EST
    Is that they're trying to set up contingency plans to deal with losing a red state other than Iowa/New Mexico, which would be a death blow.

    The only possibility is a mad dash at Pennsylvania.

    If you think about it, it makes sense.  If you're going to lose Colorado fighting to keep Virginia/Nevada, then maybe it makes sense to let 2 of the 3 go and make a dash at Pennsylvania to make up the electoral votes.

    That's probably the rationale they have at this point.  The polling doesn't bear it out though; everything points to either a very high single digit Obama lead in Pennsylvania or a double digit lead.

    Parent

    Obama is polling better in PA (none / 0) (#21)
    by andgarden on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 11:05:43 PM EST
    than Gore or Kerry did.

    McCain doing this is like if at the same time in the cycle Kerry decided to pull out of Florida and make a run for Virginia, or worse, Georgia.

    I actually don't believe the story. Giving up Colorado means giving up the White House for McCain. Hell, Ed Rendell and Bill Clinton dragged John Effing Kerry across the finish line there.

    Parent

    Incidentally, were I McCain (none / 0) (#22)
    by andgarden on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 11:06:55 PM EST
    I'd write off all blue states and run like hell for FL, VA, MO, CO.

    Parent
    I dont think... (none / 0) (#13)
    by CoralGables on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 06:56:39 PM EST
    it will be all about VA and CO, after Obama wins both VA and CO along with New Mexico, Nevada, Missouri, North Carolina, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio and Florida.  Those are all Bush red states that will flip and instead of going to bed early, it will be a night to celebrate the end of an eight year error.

    Parent
    Well (none / 0) (#14)
    by zvs888 on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 07:33:10 PM EST
    He's right if you think about it from the angle of "when do we know Obama's won?" (I guess you were joking but I took it from a serious standpoint).

    As soon as Virginia's polls close which should be among the earliest returns, we'll know whether Obama's won the election or if he's lost Virginia it is highly likely that he's lost North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, and Missouri, which means that we're waiting for Colorado's returns.

    That's why Colorado/Virginia are all that matters.  They're sufficiency conditions to win in some sense because they're the only ones that matter in terms of getting to 270 rather than 300 or 350 or 375.

    Parent

    McCain's Gaffe (none / 0) (#17)
    by maceov on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 08:51:22 PM EST
    McCain was nothing short of STUPID for selecting this unvetted, untried, untrue airhead as his running mate. I've only heard perhaps one or two complete sentences that were not completely incoherent and babbling idiocies spewing from her lips. Palin's trying to "FAKE" her way to the whitehouse, during her majorly embarrassing interviews isn't exactly flying with the majority of the public who seem to be leaning more towards Obama just to spite the old codger for picking her! She's just not quite smart enough to dazzle us with her brilliance or baffle us with her BS. What a monstrous joke on the American public. McCain punked himself over this dying edsel of a campaign gaffe!

    America_Scared? (none / 0) (#23)
    by caesar on Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 01:05:24 PM EST
    Considering the fact that half Americans (the conspiracy theorist/skeptics and cynics) are convinced we are poised to vote in either a terrorist to office, or the other half of Americans who believe the other guy will perpetuate warfare for a hundred years and be succeeded by a woman that will strike science from our public schools and speed this democracy faster toward an idiocracy... I'd say we are in a bit of a conundrum...

    not exactly a reason to be happy to knwo the nation will be divided yet again..

    WaPo Poll: Obama By 9 | 23 comments (23 topical)

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