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Pretending PA Is In Play

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 10:40:03 AM EST
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So I was watching CNN and they are trying hard to pretend Pennsylvania is in play. I can not blame them really as McCain is pretending it is in play and so is PA Governor Fast Eddie Rendell. One assumes Rendell wants his state (or himself) to keep receiving candidate love for the next 10 days. Can't blame him for that.

Of course, Pennsylvania is NOT even remotely in play. Q Poll has Obama by 13 in the Keystone State. Morning Call has Obama by 10. Susquehanna has Obama by 8. Hell, at this point, it seems a stretch to argue Virginia is in play. It is possible McCain can come back in North Carolina, salvage Missouri and skate through in Florida. But I tell you where McCain will not win - Pennsylvania -- as well as Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada. And that, with the other Kerry states, gets Obama past 270 electoral votes. This election is over. McCain needs a miracle not to get blown out.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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    Pretending PA Is In Play | 96 comments (96 topical)

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    I think it's conceivable (5.00 / 2) (#1)
    by andgarden on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 10:44:37 AM EST
    that Obama will win an Ed Rendell '02 type victory in PA.

    I think Obama will ultimately win PA, and perhaps by a good margin. But I gotta be honestly with you, I share Eddie's concern.

    And I'll tell you something else: Obama saw in the primary what a mistake it was for him not to do a big rally in Philly at the last minute. Not doing one the day before the election is like not having the ball drop in Times Square on NYE. Unheard of!

    I thought the mistake was not giving out street $ (5.00 / 0) (#10)
    by Katherine Graham Cracker on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:12:20 AM EST


    Parent
    Well, that matters a little bit (5.00 / 1) (#11)
    by andgarden on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:16:14 AM EST
    but the real problem was that he didn't get the enthusiasm he needed to. He ran his PA campaign mostly on TV, and that wasn't enough.

    Parent
    Street money in Phila..apparently still an issue (none / 0) (#18)
    by Katherine Graham Cracker on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:25:08 AM EST
    From the Enquirer

    Brady declined to comment on what he hoped Obama would come up with, saying only: "I'll take what I can get."

    City Controller Alan Butkovitz, leader of the 54th Ward in Northeast Philadelphia, guessed that Obama would offer at least $200 to compensate party workers in each of the city's 69 Democratic wards, divided into 1,681 divisions, each with two committee members.

    "I'd guess it'll at least be in the $350,000 range," Butkovitz said.

    He speculated that if Obama fell short of what the ward leaders wanted or expected, the party might try to hit up either Rendell or Mayor Nutter to help out. Neither is on the ballot this year, but each still has cash in his campaign coffers.

    Parent

    Already seen that, and I'm not too worried (none / 0) (#21)
    by andgarden on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:29:06 AM EST
    Small point that's important to Philly residents:

    The Enquirer is a trash tabloid, and Inquirer is a respected broadsheet.

    Parent

    My bad (none / 0) (#46)
    by Katherine Graham Cracker on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 12:06:51 PM EST
    apologies to the Inky

    Parent
    I think we are a little too sure of Obama. (5.00 / 1) (#37)
    by cpa1 on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:49:51 AM EST
    McCain is coming on strong and perhaps if there was more time and with Obama's unwillingness to once and for all go into a very hard hitting explaination of why Republicans destroy economies, McCain can catch him.  Also, more time would also give Joe Biden more time to say stupid things.

    I found a recording of the Imus interview with McCain yesterday and McCain sounds like an arrogant SOB but I think Americans like that.  Here is the interview: http://www.wabcradio.com/Article.asp?id=945681&spid=22807  Imus thought he did such a great job...he's still a jerk.

    Given the dirty tricks and election fraud the Republicans still play, I don't think this race is over yet.  I hope it is but who ever thought anyone would vote for George W. Bush?  Twice!

    Parent

    Coming on strong, seriously (none / 0) (#56)
    by fuzzyone on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 12:20:39 PM EST
    Do you consider this "coming on strong" in Pa.  How about Virginia?  Is it his surge in North Carolina you are talking about.  Or Nationally.  

    Voter suppression is not going to dig McCain out of the hole that he is in and there is no sign that any of the crap he is slinging is sticking to anyone but him.  In my heart of hearts I would love to see Obama hit a little harder, but it is hard to argue with success.

    Parent

    Success? Given that every single thing (none / 0) (#73)
    by cpa1 on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 01:14:17 PM EST
    in this country is 1000 times worse than it was in early January of 2001, I don't understand how Republicans are allowed to breath the political air of hope. 57 seats in the Senate causing more gridlock after 8 years of abject failure that will reach way beyond the Bush Administration and will affect us for decades to come, is not very good.  

    Pelosi and Reid are what Obama is, I'm afraid.  All three are afraid to fight and once and for all blast it into the heads of Americans that the wealthy who used to pay a tax percentage three times higher than the average America are not paying the same percentage of tax of those who considered in poverty.  

    I have a great table ot tax rates that everyone needs to see and understand or they do not deserve to call themselves citizens.  Very smart people avoid this and they should not be allowed to.  I hope if Obama wins, he will serve as a teacher, to teach America what real capitalism is all about, unlike the plutocracy we now have.  Here is the table.  It's in Excel and it might not look great but if anyone knows how to get this onto this sight, please let me know how.

                Top    
    Tax    Top    on  Taxable    Marg. % on   
    Year    Marginal    Income    Sal & SE    Capital Gains Rates & Notes
        %    over    Income   
    1913    7    500,000       
    1914    7    500,000       
    1915    7    500,000       
    1916    15    2,000,000        15%
    1917    67    2,000,000        67& World War I
    1918    77    1,000,000        77%
    1919    73    1,000,000        73%
    1920    73    1,000,000        73%
    1921    73    1,000,000        73%
    1922    58    200,000        12.5%
    1923    43.5    200,000        12.5%
    1924    46    500,000        12.5%
    1925    25    100,000        12.5%
    1926    25    100,000        12.5%
    1927    25    100,000        12.5%
    1928    25    100,000        12.5%
    1929    24    100,000        12.5%
    1930    25    100,000        12.5%
    1931    25    100,000        12.5%
    1932    63    1,000,000        12.5%
    1933    63    1,000,000        12.5%
    1934    63    1,000,000        31.50%
    1935    63    1,000,000        31.50%
    1936    79    5,000,000        39%
    1937    79    5,000,000        39%
    1938    79    5,000,000        40%
    1939    79    5,000,000        40%
    1940    81.1    5,000,000        40%
    1941    81    5,000,000        30%
    1942    88    200,000        25%
    1943    88    200,000        25%
    1944    94 <2>    200,000        25%
    1945    94 <2>    200,000        25%
    1946    86.45 <3>    200,000        25%
    1947    86.45 <3>    200,000        25%
    1948    82.13 <4>    400,000        25%
    1949    82.13 <4>    400,000        25%
    1950    84.36    400,000        25%
    1951    91 <5>    400,000        25%
    1952    92 <6>    400,000        25%
    1953    92 <6>    400,000        25%
    1954    91 <7>    400,000        25%
    1955    91 <7>    400,000        25%
    1956    91 <7>    400,000        25%
    1957    91 <7>    400,000        25%
    1958    91 <7>    400,000        25%
    1959    91 <7>    400,000        25%
    1960    91 <7>    400,000        25%
    1961    91 <7>    400,000        25%
    1962    91 <7>    400,000        25%
    1963    91 <7>    400,000        25%
    1964    77    400,000        25%
    1965    70    200,000        25%
    1966    70    200,000        25%
    1967    70    200,000        25%
    1968    75.25    200,000        26% Viet Nam War Surcharge
    1969    77    200,000        27.5% Viet Nam War Surcharge
    1970    71.75    200,000        32%
    1971    70    200,000    60    34.30%
    1972    70    200,000    50    36.50%
    1973    70    200,000    50    36.50%
    1974    70    200,000    50    36.50%
    1975    70    200,000    50    36.50%
    1976    70    200,000    50    39.90%
    1977    70    203,200    50    39.90%
    1978    70    203,200    50    39%
    1979    70    215,400    50    28%
    1980    70    215,400    50    28%
    1981    69.125    215,400    50    23.70%
    1982    50    85,600        20%
    1983    50    109,400        20%
    1984    50    162,400        20%
    1985    50    169,020        20%
    1986    50    175,250        20%
    1987    38.5    90,000        28%
    1988    28 <8>    29,750 <8>        28%
    1989    28 <8>    30,950 <8>        28%
    1990    28 <8>    32,450 <8>        28%
    1991    31    82,150        28%
    1992    31    86,500        28%
    1993    39.6    89,150        28%
    1994    39.6    250,000        28%
    1995    39.6    256,500        28%
    1996    39.6    263,750        28%
    1997    39.6    271,050        20%
    1998    39.6    278,450        20%
    1999    39.6    283,150        20%
    2000    39.6    288,350        20%
    2001    39.1    297,350        20%
    2002    38.6    307,050        20%
    2003    35    311,950        15% div  & LT CapG, inc hedge fund mgrs
    2004    35    319,100        15% div  & LT CapG, inc hedge fund mgrs
    2005    35    319,100        15% div  & LT CapG, inc hedge fund mgrs
    2006    35    338,525        15% div  & LT CapG, inc hedge fund mgrs
    2007    35    338,525        15% div  & LT CapG, inc hedge fund mgrs
    2008    35    357,700        15% div  & LT CapG, inc hedge fund mgrs
    2009    35    360,050        20% Divis 39.6 & 46% Estate Tax
    2010    35    367,050        20% Divis 39.6 & ZERO% Estate Tax
    2011    39.6    378,250        All Bush Tax Cuts Gone 55% Estate Tax


    Parent

    Didn't come out too well (none / 0) (#74)
    by cpa1 on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 01:15:40 PM EST
    it was a little misaligned.  Can anyone tell me how to import and excel schedule?

    Parent
    Still readable (none / 0) (#80)
    by NMvoiceofreason on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 02:39:59 PM EST
    If you want to bring in tables, use File->SaveAs->Html or Export->Html. Then open up the page created and cut/paste.

    Parent
    I think Rendell is just trying to (5.00 / 0) (#51)
    by inclusiveheart on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 12:10:01 PM EST
    make sure that there is a strong sense that the GOTV on election day is still critically important in his state.

    Calling this race over based on anything but the final polling on election day may well suppress Obama voters.  We don't want that especially when apparently the small bit of good the McCain camp thinks Palin is doing is helping their GOTV effort amongst their base.

    People expressing support and intent to support when a pollster calls isn't enough to win an election - we still need everyone to get to the polls on election day.

    Parent

    I'm not worried about white PA Dems (none / 0) (#19)
    by Exeter on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:25:48 AM EST
    voting for McCain, I'm voting worried about them just staying home. I'm not sure they are motivated to stand in line for a half hour+

    Parent
    Alliteration (5.00 / 1) (#2)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 10:47:00 AM EST
    is the theme of the day - McCain's Mavericky Machinations Must Meet A Moral Nemesis. (Ok the last one is a n, so sue me.)  

    How about "meltdown" instead? (none / 0) (#4)
    by andgarden on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 10:53:00 AM EST


    Parent
    I think assonance associates better (none / 0) (#6)
    by ThatOneVoter on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:08:40 AM EST
    to the arrogant assumer, McCain.

    Parent
    It would be folly (none / 0) (#14)
    by NMvoiceofreason on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:18:43 AM EST
    to even attempt to sue BTD.
    however Meme does work.

    "McCain's Mavericky Machinations Must Meet A Moral Meme" - i.e. McCain has to get an Idea. I like it.

    Parent

    "neM" is close enough (none / 0) (#24)
    by Exeter on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:32:51 AM EST
    to qualify for an alliteration.  (I'm an alliteration judge.)

    Parent
    I dispute (none / 0) (#29)
    by NMvoiceofreason on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:40:10 AM EST
    this judge and raise you a bagel!

    Parent
    All this discussion about "play" is (5.00 / 1) (#5)
    by scribe on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:02:51 AM EST
    a bit premature.  
    There are twelve days until the election.  

    The Republican vote suppression and nullification machine is only warming up.  

    Osama - actually, only his followers - has just begun to rear his head up over the horizon.   I suspect that right about now Rove is having him hauled out of that cargo container on Kwajelin where they keep him for just this eventuality and made presentable for the camera.  (Ok, that last sentence is in the "Rove wishes he was doing this" category.  So sue me.)

    And who knows what the wingnuts and their previously-sleeping militia counterparts have in store to f*ck up voting.

    There is one poll which counts - the one that takes place November 4.

    Vote early if you can.  Vote paper.

    Then work to get your friends and neighbors to do likewise.  So long as they vote Democratic, of course.

    An,d if you think I'm overstating this (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by scribe on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:11:23 AM EST
    look here - voting rights organizations have had to sue Pennsylvania already over their inadequate preparations for the election, among them requiring that paper ballots not be used until all 100 percent of the voting machines in a polling station have malfunctioned.  The policy being challenged is basically one that is unchanged since the debacle of this spring's primary, where hours-long lines and balky machines led to voters being told to come back later (when of course, the pols had closed) or being forced to leave without casting their votes.

    This problem is, no surprise, most extreme in the heavily Democratic areas.

    The link I prove also links through to the .pdfs of the complaint and brief in support.

    So, BTD, when you tell me Pennsylvania is in the bag, I have to ask "whose?"

    Parent

    Dems control just about everything in PA (none / 0) (#12)
    by andgarden on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:17:07 AM EST
    You don't really need to worry.

    Parent
    If that were true, why (5.00 / 1) (#23)
    by scribe on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:30:54 AM EST
    were people being turned away at the polls in wildly Democratic Philadelphia during the Democratic Primary?

    And why do they not have early voting at all?

    The Dems who run a lot of those things in PA are of the Frank Rizzo school of Democratic politics:  "My cops will keep the n***rs in line and make Attila the Hun look like a f*ggot."  And a lot of them are more likely to favor a Republican (like Rizzo did) than a minority Democrat.  They surely won't sua sponte solve problems disenfranchising minorities, even if they are Democrats.


    Parent

    You don't have a clue what you're talking about (none / 0) (#25)
    by andgarden on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:33:06 AM EST


    Parent
    Suuuuure. (5.00 / 0) (#31)
    by scribe on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:42:51 AM EST
    I;m so glad you know better what I know than I do.

    And, moving the topic, this will make Cream City happy:  the Wisconsin AG's suit seeking to toss many voter registrations has, itself, been tossed out of court.

    Parent

    If he doesn't, (none / 0) (#42)
    by OldCity on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:57:03 AM EST
    I do.  You won't see voter supression.  Inadequate preparation perhaps, but not supression.

    PA isn't different from most states, in the sense that not only did they not expect such enormous turnout, but they didn't budget for it.  

    The population centers will deliver for Obama.  The middle of the state?  The "real America" part just won't have the horses.

    Parent

    "Won't have the votes", (none / 0) (#45)
    by scribe on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 12:04:30 PM EST
    I'm sure you mean.

    The central part of the Commonwealth has plenty of horses - a lot of it is Amish horse-and-buggy land.  It's where old claimers and, especially, washed-up trotters go to work the rest of their days.

    Parent

    It did, when I wrote about it days ago (none / 0) (#98)
    by Cream City on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 02:54:50 AM EST
    here, but TL types are too busy watching what Palin is wearing to keep up with the real nooz.

    As I also wrote days before that, it also was essentially moot owing to the instructions of the state elections board.  So that's one less problem at the polls -- where our lines will be long enough in my city owing to other problems expected.

    But I wrote about those already, too. . . .  

    Parent

    Not just Nov. 4 (none / 0) (#17)
    by NMvoiceofreason on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:24:37 AM EST
    Real voting is not just for Tuesdays anymore.

    Early voting trends in four states favor Obama

    In these early votes, 2 to 1 and 3 to 1 margins for Obama are common.

    So yes, vote early. Votes will be counted Nov. 4th. But every vote is important and every vote should be counted.

    Parent

    David Gergen and I have a theory: (none / 0) (#33)
    by coigue on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:46:38 AM EST
    (kiss kiss David)

    that the reason that Biden brought up the subject (of Obama being tested) was to begin to discussion under controlled circumstances (an innoculation of sorts against just what you are talking about).

    I happen to think that Obama may be in a good position to deal with this because he has said that he will go after OBL in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and all McCain has said is that he knows how to get OBL, and that the central front on the WOT is in Iraq.

    I think many people are sick of allowing OBL to remain a safe General in the WOT in AFghanistan while we supposedly fight his minions  in Iraq.  

    Parent

    Reading scribe's comments is still (5.00 / 1) (#38)
    by scribe on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:53:10 AM EST
    like getting the newspaper a couple days early.

    The day (or day after) Biden made them, I was saying - in so many words - Biden's comments were an innoculation against future issues.  I called it "pulling the sting" - a long-time trial lawyer tactic for controlling the possibility of bad things coming out.

    But, hey, andgarden knows better than I do what I know, so why should I presume to tell anyone that I know anything....

    Parent

    well. (none / 0) (#49)
    by coigue on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 12:09:14 PM EST
    I have a crush on Gergen's brain (have had since he was on MacNeil_leher). You if he says it, it must be true, as must you.

    Parent
    I'm not saying it isn't true. (none / 0) (#54)
    by scribe on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 12:11:42 PM EST
    Rather, I'm saying I said it first (maybe he's cribbing from me?).

    Parent
    I dunno cause I don' remember when he said it (none / 0) (#75)
    by coigue on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 01:33:04 PM EST
    of course he was ignored by everybody when he said it.

    Everyone but me.

    Parent

    oops, sorry scribe. (none / 0) (#79)
    by coigue on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 01:56:06 PM EST
    I should have said: WOW you are amazing!

    ;-)

    Parent

    I'm certain OBL is in a Ritz-Carlton (5.00 / 1) (#39)
    by oculus on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:53:56 AM EST
    in Dubai; and I volunteer to go get 'im.  

    Parent
    Ick... (none / 0) (#47)
    by coigue on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 12:07:09 PM EST
    Dubai seems like the grossest, most ostentaceous place on earth.

    Tacky rich.

    However, it's fun to think of OBL there, just the odd juxtaposition of images.

    Parent

    Yes, along with Cheney (5.00 / 1) (#60)
    by sallywally on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 12:27:49 PM EST
    after the election over there with Halliburton.....

    Parent
    I'm still holding out for (none / 0) (#53)
    by scribe on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 12:10:38 PM EST
    Rove having him in a half-buried cargo container on Kwajelin, where they can pull him out and prop him up in front of a blue sheet to make a video whenever they decide to try to scare us.

    I'm not really keen on any of those Gulf mini-states - tacky, nouveau riche doesn't seem to begin to describe it.


    Parent

    Ha! (none / 0) (#69)
    by Steve M on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 12:45:04 PM EST
    Great idea.  Just make sure you don't have an Israeli stamp on your passport.

    Parent
    Not yet. (none / 0) (#71)
    by oculus on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 12:52:36 PM EST
    But I've brought US dollars to Egypt when most Americans weren't going there; so I expect to be welcomed.  

    Parent
    Burj Al Arab more likely... (none / 0) (#81)
    by oldpro on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 02:57:56 PM EST


    Parent
    Not just OBL (none / 0) (#87)
    by Spamlet on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 03:46:06 PM EST
    in Dubai . . . but he makes an appearance.

    Parent
    86% chance for O victory (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by Jlvngstn on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:17:49 AM EST
    according to Ras polling.

    I guess the only thing I am looking forward to is the fallout from republican talking heads as they start to place blame.  My guess is that starts a week from today.

    Well, I hope they blame Obama!!! (5.00 / 0) (#15)
    by ThatOneVoter on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:21:31 AM EST


    Parent
    lol (5.00 / 0) (#16)
    by Jlvngstn on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:23:16 AM EST
    very rich thanks for the smile

    Parent
    Carville and Begala wrote a funny (5.00 / 0) (#26)
    by CaptainAmerica08 on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:36:18 AM EST
    piece on the uncoming GOP blame game. BTW, the repubs nickname should now change to the GNP instead of the GOP. With a successful, O presidency and a congress headed by women (Clinton, Pelosi, more to come), they will have to embrace diversity among other things on the policy side.

    Parent
    I'm with Eddie (5.00 / 1) (#28)
    by kempis on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:39:21 AM EST
    In 04, my working class, Catholic, union-Dem, SW PA neighborhood was overflowing with Kerry signs. This year I've seen three Obama signs and a couple of McCain/Palin signs.

    There are a number of conclusions one can draw from this, but the only one that favors Obama is a reverse Bradley: people support him but are reluctant to declare it publicly.

    If that's not the case, Obama may not carry a lot of these little working-class boroughs in PA, not as well as even Kerry did in 04.

    A simpler explanation (5.00 / 1) (#30)
    by andgarden on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:42:27 AM EST
    Obama is supposedly being quite stingy with the signs.

    Parent
    O headquarters in Columbus, Oh were (5.00 / 0) (#65)
    by sallywally on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 12:36:38 PM EST
    very stingy with the signs. Also, no bumper stickers, nothing!

    Oh yeah, and we ordered two yard signs online and only got the metal frameworks. No signs!

    And no one is putting literature in any mailboxes or showing up anywhere in or neigborhood, and no phone calls.

    It's very weird. I could think the Obama campaign didn't exist here in Columbus.

    We do, however, have more Obama yard signs than we had Kerry, even though two of the four houses who had them last year moved. There seems to be kind of a yard sign war here.

    I'm with others. I don't see it being over until it's over, and I believe the fat lady will be singing quite loudly beyond election day if Obama wins.

    Parent

    I think what we're seeing (none / 0) (#68)
    by smott on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 12:40:51 PM EST
    ...is the campaign is quite willing to sell signs a la their web pages, but less interested in handing them out for free via HQs and so on?

    Parent
    You can buy them (none / 0) (#32)
    by NMvoiceofreason on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:46:19 AM EST
    on the website Big frickin yard sign

    Parent
    LOL I think not (none / 0) (#34)
    by smott on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:47:20 AM EST
    HE's got 150 million, that buys a few signs.

    I'm also SW PA (Pittsburgh) and the areas I frequent are white, upper-mid, primarily Jewish. In 2004 it was more Kerry than Bush, not by much.

    Now it's wall to wall McCain-Palin.

    In the primaries it was all Clinton. People left their signs up for months.

    I'll be very interested to see how Pgh goes on Nov 4th.

    Parent

    You think not? (none / 0) (#36)
    by andgarden on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:49:21 AM EST
    Well, I've read several accounts confirming that Obama does not give away free signs, and that they are, in any case, difficult to get.

    So what you think is wrong.

    Parent

    And you'd better believe it (5.00 / 1) (#40)
    by scribe on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:54:20 AM EST
    because andgarden knows better than you do, what you know and don't know.

    /snark.

    Parent

    Well, aggressive ignorance pisses me off (2.33 / 3) (#41)
    by andgarden on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:55:28 AM EST


    Parent
    andgarden, I have a great deal (5.00 / 4) (#43)
    by oculus on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 12:00:56 PM EST
    of respect for your savvy on political matters.  But, you diminish your on-line reputation, in my opinion, when you dismiss others so easily.  Call it motherly advice, unsolicited.

    Parent
    Yes aggressively ignorant, that's me (5.00 / 1) (#64)
    by smott on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 12:34:56 PM EST
    Funny I get told that all the time.

    I was actually on DNC.com the other day and this page was still up

    http://www.democratnationalcommittee.com/candidates/barack_obama.htm#Link_6

    Parent

    I'm partial to the Obama sign (none / 0) (#67)
    by oculus on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 12:39:53 PM EST
    w/rope lights.  Google

    Parent
    I like the (none / 0) (#86)
    by coigue on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 03:26:51 PM EST
    "IOWA firefighters for Obama"

    It would look so good in my Napa CA yard.

    hee hee

    Parent

    None (none / 0) (#96)
    by lilburro on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 09:50:49 PM EST
    of that stuff is official, you know.

    The actual link is here for the Dem Party/DNC.


    Parent

    My parents (5.00 / 4) (#70)
    by Steve M on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 12:46:55 PM EST
    had a hard time getting a sign, in their affluent suburban county.

    One of the volunteers at the district office asked my dad if he'd like a button instead.  "Sure," he replied, "but don't you think it will be a little hard for people to read that button out in the middle of my lawn?"  Funny guy, my dad.

    Parent

    I agree with andgarden here (none / 0) (#48)
    by lilburro on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 12:08:14 PM EST
    there are very few yard signs in NC.  The HQ here has had a hard time getting hold of them.  They aren't spread around highways or anything like that either though McCain/Palin signs are.

    Bumper stickers are another story.  But yeah, I don't think yard signs are necessarily a great indicator of Obama's popularity in your town.

    Parent

    I would say this is true in NJ too (none / 0) (#55)
    by Lil on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 12:16:16 PM EST


    Parent
    why is the more affluent, liberal 'hood (none / 0) (#63)
    by kempis on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 12:33:59 PM EST
    blanketed in Obama signs, then?

    No snark intended. For those familiar with Pittsburgh, Squirrel Hill is overflowing with Obama signs but there are few in the working-class, predominantly white boroughs along the Mon valley. Or so it seems....

    Parent

    Yup I grew up in Sq Hill (none / 0) (#66)
    by smott on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 12:38:09 PM EST
    It's about as liberal a neighborhood as you can get, maybe Shadyside a close second.

    I'm in S Hills now, Mt Lebanon, Greentree, Upper St Clair. The difference from 2004 is startling.

    Parent

    Hi neighbor :) (none / 0) (#82)
    by kempis on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 03:07:08 PM EST
    I lived in Squirrel Hill and Shadyside for years. When it came time to buy a house, I found a cheap fixer-upper in Munhall.

    So we're seeing the same things: the college-urban-liberal neighborhoods going strong for Obama (as they do all Democrats) and the swing voters in the 'burbs and the Mon Valley being unnervingly quiet about any support they have for Obama.

    I have long not believed the predictions that PA would be an easy win for Obama. I continue to hope that I'm wrong.

    Maybe an energized Obama-base will make up for the lack of support in the working-class Catholic and fairly conservative 'burbs. But I find it hard to imagine a Democrat winning PA without those working-class voters.

    Maybe someone has more demographic info on PA and can explain how Obama can win without them.

    Parent

    Hey neighbor! Working class base support is... (none / 0) (#91)
    by smott on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 05:58:43 PM EST
    ...why I was for Clinton and why I worry about Obama.

    IMO she would have owned PA and probably OH too, which would have made FL moot, though the polls back in May had her comfortably over McCain there too. 2 of those 3 is the ballgame.  

    Obama seems safely ahead in PA though you wouldn't know it from the signs in the S Hills. How far ahead was Kerry on '04? Like 15% or something? Then he won by 1 1/2%.  I remember going door to door in the rain on election day to gotv, and driving old ladies to the polls.

    I think he wins if Clinton working class voters go out and vote, instead of stay home. I do not think that many of them will flip to McCain, but I've been wrong before.

    Anyway, hey neighbor! My Dad sold our old house on Wightman St. to conservative Republicans...the area is still pretty solid liberal though. Mt. Lebanon, somewhat more conservative but still with a strong Jewish population, seeming so completely McCain was sure startling though. Big change from '04.

    My brother is a big O-man and insists that O is broadening the base. I'm not sure about that. So much of his prograss has come via alienating the traditional base. We'll see how many of those 18 million turn up on Nov 4th...

    Parent

    small world (none / 0) (#93)
    by kempis on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 07:55:30 PM EST
    I lived in a rowhouse on Wightman before moving here!

    Can't type because the cat's in my lap--but howdy, and i agree w your assessment of how much stronger hillary would have been....oh well.

    Parent

    Hmm rowhouse? (none / 0) (#94)
    by smott on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 08:11:13 PM EST
    South of Forbes?...We were in the 1400 block between WILkins and Northumberlund...

    Parent
    I lived on Northumberland for years, too :) (none / 0) (#97)
    by kempis on Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 05:51:16 AM EST
    Lived on Northumberland near Beechwood for several years before moving to Wightman. On Wightman, I lived in a rowhouse at the tail end--before you make that left to get to the big intersection on Murray that can lead to the Parkway--if that makes sense at this hour.

    Parent
    Actually, I make that out. . . (5.00 / 3) (#57)
    by LarryInNYC on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 12:22:51 PM EST
    This year I've seen three Obama signs and a couple of McCain/Palin signs.

    to be a 60 to 40 blowout for Obama.

    Parent

    On this issue of signs (none / 0) (#72)
    by eric on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 01:00:26 PM EST
    I will say this:  I have never, ever seen such a dramatic contrast between urban and rural/suburban when it comes to signs.  (I am speaking of Minnesota).

    In the city, Minneapolis, where I live, Obama signs are prolific.  Even the mansions on the lakes have Obama signs.  I can't think of one McCain sign that I have seen in my area.

    However, if one travels to the outer suburbs, many of which are quasi-rural, the signs are all McCain Palin.  The contrast is really striking.

    Parent

    I'm seeing the same thing in Pittsburgh (none / 0) (#83)
    by kempis on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 03:10:18 PM EST
    ...and that's worrying to me.

    Parent
    McCain must have some reason... (5.00 / 1) (#59)
    by Jerrymcl89 on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 12:26:20 PM EST
    ... for behaving as though PA is in play. He's not just paying lip service to thinking so, but actively expending resources more there than in other apparently closer states. He certainly might be wrong, but I have to assume his internal polling gives him a reason to do that.

    Rendell would obviously have some ulterior motives to act like it's close when it isn't, since presumably more effort by Obama and Biden would help downticket Dems. But, other than, "I'm going to lose anyway, and I've got to spend the next two weeks somewhere", I have to think McCain has some logic to his strategy.

    If not PA then where (none / 0) (#61)
    by fuzzyone on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 12:31:16 PM EST
    Its not like he has a lot of options.  I think this Chris Bowers post gives a pretty good explanation for the box McCain is in.  He has to try something somewhere and PA makes some sense, but it hardly indicates he has some super secret magic polling that is different from what everyone else sees.

    Parent
    Exactly ... (none / 0) (#78)
    by Robot Porter on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 01:48:56 PM EST
    McCain has to assume the race is closer than it looks.  (It probably is.)  And if this is the case he has to focus on at least one blue state.

    Given its number of electoral votes, the demographics and the media markets it shares, PA is as good a choice as any.

    In addition, I think the McCain Camp probably assumes its best to get nightly news footage of him campaigning in the Northeast than in the a Northern tier state.  Which would be his other choice.

    Given the cards he's holding, this is probably the best play he can make.

    Parent

    SUPPRESSION (5.00 / 0) (#92)
    by stevea66 on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 07:22:58 PM EST
    You may have already addressed this, but I can't help but wonder if it's really over - anywhere.  The suppression machine is on the move.  I've heard several reports of purging, flyers sent to the poor telling them that if they didn't pay a parking ticket or child support, they'd be arrested at the polls when they show up, law suits, problems with electronic voting machines.  It just  feels to me like the Republicans won't stop at anything to win.

    Any thoughts?

    In interest of full disclosure, I've just moved (none / 0) (#7)
    by CaptainAmerica08 on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:09:58 AM EST
    to Charlotte, NC from MS a week ago. I voted early in MS before I left. I wish I could vote here, but it may not matter from the looks of it. I believe one thing though, Dole is toast, but will not be blown out.

    It's an excuse to replay the Murtha comments (none / 0) (#8)
    by Katherine Graham Cracker on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:11:18 AM EST
    And so our shallow media can talk about the "T" in Pa.

    It is a pile of poopy but without it -they would have to say --the race is over.

    I'll go out on a limb (none / 0) (#20)
    by Makarov on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:27:46 AM EST
    and say it was a coordinated statement. I've lived in PA all my life, and thought Obama would win the state even before the conventions. They could be trying to tie up McCain resources in a place they can't possibly win. I've seen more McCain ads here (philadelphia area) than probably all Bush ads in '00 and '04 combined. They've been on consistently since May, and heavy since late July.

    Classic "Tactics of Mistake" (none / 0) (#27)
    by NMvoiceofreason on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:37:43 AM EST
    Gordon R. Dickson wrote the book on this. Literally. You bring your opponent into a situation he thinks he understands, into terrain and tactics that he believes he understands, then by your preparation and unconventional tactics, he finds out that he does not understand where he is or what he should be doing.

    Obama dissected the Rove playbook. Character assassination, voter surpression, trickle down on me economics - all the tactics of the neocon.

    Now the ground is sown with bitter fruit, and new voters, motivated by their own self interest rather than hate of another are turning out. Because hope is a stronger emotion than fear. John McCain should have learned this lesson 40 years ago in Vietnam.

    Parent

    I'm worried about California, too. (none / 0) (#22)
    by ThatOneVoter on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:29:12 AM EST


    McCain is welcome here (5.00 / 1) (#35)
    by coigue on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:48:18 AM EST
    Here McCain McCain...55 juicy EVs.

    Come on over!

    Parent

    Let's not encourage McCain or (5.00 / 1) (#50)
    by oculus on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 12:09:15 PM EST
    Palin to spend any time in CA.  Might rev up more "yes" on Prop. 8 voters.

    Parent
    Good thinking. (none / 0) (#52)
    by coigue on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 12:10:16 PM EST
    I am phone banking against 8 this weekend. It's the only activism I've done this election.

    Parent
    Regarding 'Yes on 8" voters, (none / 0) (#88)
    by Spamlet on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 03:52:03 PM EST
    it seems there's enough to worry about on that score with some of the "yes on Obama" voters, i.e., the evangelical Christian AA bloc. It's worrisome.

    Parent
    Was The Leak of The Internal Obama (none / 0) (#44)
    by bob h on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 12:01:20 PM EST
    poll showing only a 2% lead a head fake to lure McCain away from the real battlegrounds?  Team McCain are dumb enough to go for it.

    Team McSame (none / 0) (#58)
    by NMvoiceofreason on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 12:23:50 PM EST
    Is...(in Foghorn J. Leghorn voice) IS stupid enough to chase their tails. As for the theory behind this, see "Tactics of Mistake" comment above.

    They started with the Rove playbook. Dirty tricks and dirty smears are not enough anymore. So let them fight where the battle cannot be won, and we shall march on to victory!

    Parent

    Ironically (none / 0) (#76)
    by Makarov on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 01:39:53 PM EST
    it wasn't until September that I saw one negative McCain ad spot (aside from those news organizations broadcast for free during talking head segments) in the Philadelphia, PA market.

    I thought McCain was going to reprise Bush '00 - look, we're really quite similar on all the issues, and who are you going to trust, me or that other guy? Granted, Bush was aided by a 2 year campaign from the media to brand Gore as a liar, but Gore made his own mistakes in that campaign - specifically by not embracing Bill Clinton.

    I expected the Bush admin to back McCain up by announcing victory and a phased withdraw from Iraq. The ads run by McCain in late spring and summer looked like they could've come from a Democrat - renewable energy, aid to the middle class, reforming wall street.

    It was during the Republican convention (and the pick of Palin as VP shortly before it began) that things took a big turn. While he got a short-lived convention bump, things went south very quickly.

    Had McCain been strong enough to take on the wingnuts in his party's base, this election could be very close. He didn't and it won't be. Sarah Palin is also going to go down as the worst VP selection in modern history - worse than Eagleton.

    Parent

    Some amazing numbers for Obama in the Q poll (none / 0) (#62)
    by fuzzyone on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 12:33:50 PM EST
    Florida 1,433 LV, 2.6%
    Obama 49, McCain 44

    Ohio 1,360 LV, 2.7%
    Obama 52, McCain 38

    Pennsylvania 1,425 LV, 2.6%
    Obama 53, McCain 40

    (via pollster)

    SUSA sez (none / 0) (#77)
    by andgarden on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 01:40:07 PM EST
    some movement to McCain, but probably not nearly enough:

    Obama 53
    McCain 41

    In an election for President of the United States in Pennsylvania today, 10/23/08, twelve days until votes are counted, the contest tightens, but Democrat Barack Obama still defeats Republican John McCain 53% to 41%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCAU-TV Philadelphia, KDKA-TV Pittsburgh, WNEP-TV Scranton, WHTM-TV Harrisburg, and WJAC-TV Johnstown. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 9 days ago, McCain is up 1, Obama is down 2. There is movement to McCain among white voters, where McCain had been down 7, today is down 3.

    I think the consensus is that Obama has this one.

    Five Pennsylvania Polls (none / 0) (#84)
    by CoralGables on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 03:18:04 PM EST
    all come out today and all in agreement. SUSA, Big10, Morning Call, Q, and National Journal. No matter how you spin them; average, toss high and low, look for outliers...it's all the same 10,10,11,12,13.

    McCain is trying to draw an inside straight with a deck of Old Maid cards. The flood gates are opening. Let's hope the flood reaches the Mississippi, Georgia, Minnesota and Oregon Senate Races. No need for the flood of blue votes to reach Alaska. Twelve jurors in DC will decide the vote in that Senate race.

    and yet... (none / 0) (#85)
    by coigue on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 03:23:35 PM EST
    the McCain camp INSISTS that they have some internal polls saying they are within a point or two.

    I wonder if they polled some friends in Philly or something?

    Parent

    but (5.00 / 1) (#90)
    by connecticut yankee on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 05:57:04 PM EST
    If McCain was down 35 they would still insist they see a path.  

    Parent
    It's not really pretending. (none / 0) (#95)
    by nclblows on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 09:13:41 PM EST
    Where I live, about an hour out of Philly, is most definitely in play.  I put up my Obama sign on my lawn, and 12 McCain signs went up within the next two days.

    Obama signs are few and far between here.  The only place you see them are in more urban areas.

    Pretending PA Is In Play | 96 comments (96 topical)

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