Demography Is Political Destiny: WaPo Analysis

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 04:14:13 PM EST
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The other day I did a post on the political demography of Ohio and why Obama's performance among non-whites is why he will win there. WaPo's Numbers Blog reaches a similar conclusion using their own polling numbers and relinks to their Ohio analysis from a few months back. Today they write:

Obama currently outpaces recent Democratic nominees among white voters, but his advantage among nonwhite voters is even more dramatic. Overall, nonwhites go for Obama over McCain 80 to 16 percent, with African Americans and Hispanics in particular providing a big boost to the Democrat.

. . . A few months ago, the Post took a look at how a boost in black turnout could benefit Obama, assessing the results using two scenarios, one in which Obama took John F. Kerry's share of the vote among African Americans, and another in which he won 95 percent of black voters. In the clearly more realistic 95 percent scenario, if turnout among non-blacks held steady, Obama would win Ohio without any boost in black turnout and Nevada with a slim 8 percent uptick. . .

Obama leads by 9, 53-44, in the WaPo/ABC tracker.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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Demography Is Political Destiny: WaPo Analysis | 9 comments (9 topical)

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Making Saxby Chambliss nuts in Georgia (none / 0) (#1)
by white n az on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 04:26:48 PM EST

because the AA turnout in early voting has been huge and he just naturally assumes that they are voting for Martin and not him.

I think the Republicans have always known that a big turnout would hurt them and I think the turnout this election cycle will sting a lot.

Question of the day...if 2006 was in 43's words, 'a thumpin', what will we call 2008?

: In American football terms... (none / 0) (#3)
by Lou Grinzo on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 05:06:51 PM EST

...it will be a slobberknocker.
I think it's pretty clear that immense turnout will be "the" story on Tuesday. Obama will win, he will win big, and the absolute number of votes involved will be stunning.

Of course Repubs (none / 0) (#2)
by CaptainAmerica08 on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 04:49:40 PM EST

will blame the blacks, Mexicans, and A-rabs for voting in disproportional numbers. As usual they will be wrong historically because Obama will NOT set a record for AA support. Clinton got 95% AA support in '96 and LBJ got all 100%.

Wha? (none / 0) (#4)
by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 06:10:04 PM EST

Is this a joke?


I kid you not. See the Time Magazine issue (none / 0) (#5)
by CaptainAmerica08 on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 06:22:07 PM EST

for Oct. 20. It's the one with the half white, half black Obama cover with the title Why The Economy Is Trumping Race. Actually, looking at it now, Clinton got reelected with a 96% AA margin, not 95%. Humphrey is third with 94% and Carter is fourth with 90%.


That is just false (none / 0) (#6)
by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 06:27:59 PM EST

Link.


I'd be lying if I said I believed the article (none / 0) (#7)
by CaptainAmerica08 on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 06:36:32 PM EST

in my gut.The source for the stats was the American National Election Studies, Univ. of Michigan Center for Political Studies.


: may the truthiness be with you (none / 0) (#10)
by progrocks on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 08:31:43 PM EST

if it is, you will never fail.

I have already voted (none / 0) (#8)
by DaytonDem on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 06:45:34 PM EST

and I hope this analysis is correct. Because if it is the election is a complete blow out, but I just don't see it here. I feel very confident about the national election, but not in Ohio. Hope we pull it through for Obama here.