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The Polls : 10/5

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 08:43:52 AM EST
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Another day, another round of tracking polls telling us McCain's goose is cooked. DKos/R2000 has Obama maintaining a 12 point lead, 52-40. Ras ticks Obama up 1 to a 7 point lead, 51-44. I'll add Hotline and Gallup as they post their results during the day.

What can McCain do? I know the personal trashing of Obama will come - Ayers, Wright and whatever else they can find in the kitchen sink will be thrown. Of course, thanks to the extended primary, that is all old news (thank Hillary for the exciting, extended contested primary - Obama is teflon on these things now I think.) Here's a selfish (for me) idea - how about McCain flank Obama with a bold plan to help the middle class and homeowners instead of Wall Street? How about fighting for and promising a new HOLC? Just a thought Sen. McCain.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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    The Polls : 10/5 | 52 comments (52 topical)

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    To the best of my knowledge. . . (5.00 / 0) (#2)
    by LarryInNYC on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 09:12:08 AM EST
    Of course, thanks to the extended primary, that is all old news (thank Hillary for the exciting, extended contested primary - Obama is teflon on these things now I think.)

    The Clinton campaign never engaged in anything even approximating the slanderous, negative, disrespectful, dishonest campaign being undertaken by McCain and his hate machine.  Sure, some bloggers made half-hearted attempts to tarnish Obama with Ayers but no one directly impugned his patriotism the way the Weasel and Ms. Palin are doing today.

    If it had been an ideal primary (none / 0) (#6)
    by Fabian on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 09:30:50 AM EST
    We'd have a solid Democratic brand with clear Democratic stands on the major issues of concern to the voters.

    The Media brought much of that up.  Media Darling just means the overall media treatment is favorable.  It doesn't mean continuous blind adulation.

    Parent

    Sure (none / 0) (#8)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 09:46:26 AM EST
    But the issues arose and were aired and dealt with because of the extended primary.

    I did not mean to imply that the Clinton campaign raised the issues but rather that the issues came up and were dealt with in the primary setting.

    Parent

    I don't think they were aired. . . (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by LarryInNYC on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 09:52:37 AM EST
    the way McCain and Palin are airing them.

    It's one thing to pass around a blog link that points out that Obama has worked with a professor who was, at some point in the Weather Underground and another to suggest that Obama is a domestic terrorist as Palin did yesterday.

    I realize that the first implies the second but most people -- even those who hear about the accusation -- will not make that link.

    Palin's use of "Obama" and "terrorist" in the same sentence have a clear meaning.  The people it's targeted to will never hear or absorb the name "Ayers".  Just "Obama. . . terrorist".

    Parent

    It was all done (none / 0) (#23)
    by lilburro on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 11:05:50 AM EST
    during the ABC debate...here is a transcript:

    example:

    STEPHANOPOULOS: And, Senator, if you get the nomination, you'll have...

    (APPLAUSE)

    ... to beat back these distractions.

    And I want to give Senator Clinton a chance to respond, but first a follow-up on this issue, general theme of patriotism, in your relationships. A gentleman named William Ayers. He was part of the Weather Underground in the 1970s. They bombed the Pentagon, the Capitol, and other buildings. He's never apologized for that.

    And, in fact, on 9/11, he was quoted in the New York Times saying, "I don't regret setting bombs. I feel we didn't do enough." An early organizing meeting for your State Senate campaign was held at his house and your campaign has said you are "friendly."

    Can you explain that relationship for the voters and explain to Democrats why it won't be a problem?

    Looking back, that that framing came from a moderator, not an opponent, is pretty crazy.

    So there was definitely some airing of dirty laundry.  

    Parent

    PS (none / 0) (#26)
    by lilburro on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 11:16:40 AM EST
    and I am no savvy policial operative, but I think at least in a debate setting, that Obama can deflect whatever McCain attacks in part by saying that we dealt with these issues in the ABC debate, and the world did not end upon their discussion.

    Parent
    Obama was a shoe in when Steffie (none / 0) (#43)
    by Salo on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 02:28:09 PM EST
    asked those questions.

    Obama was in fact losing multiple primaries though.

    So his brand was cratering at that moment.

    I'm shocked that McCain didn't immediately study the primary and just repeat the medicine.

    Parent

    I can't find his answer on the link (none / 0) (#33)
    by Cream City on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 12:24:25 PM EST
    Can you?  As I recall, the answer might be the wedge that McCain could use to attack.

    Parent
    Here is his answer (none / 0) (#39)
    by ruffian on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 01:48:14 PM EST
    This is a guy who lives in my neighborhood, who's a professor of English in Chicago who I know and who I have not received some official endorsement from.  He's not somebody who I exchange ideas from on a regular basis.

    From what I saw on the Sunday shows, the McCain camp is calling this answer a lie. I think the answers sounds like Ayers is the guy down the block I wave to when I walk my dogs. I think the facts are ma little more complicated, to say the least.

    Parent

    Thanks. As I thought, it's the answer (none / 0) (#46)
    by Cream City on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 03:19:26 PM EST
    that's the problem.  Not the question.

    Parent
    Not much really (none / 0) (#42)
    by Salo on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 02:26:06 PM EST
    Obama hasn't been pounded by such ads ---his surrogates have not been forced to defend the charges that are going to be brought to Obama.

    Parent
    What other Democrats did was point out... (none / 0) (#41)
    by Salo on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 02:24:32 PM EST
    ...was that the GOP would mercilessly exploit the Ayers (Terrorist) Rezko (Arab) Wright (Madmofoblackpreacherman-stealthmuslim) opening that Obama provides.

    I think that Clinton made it clear that would be Obama's Achilles heel and the GOP focus for October.

    It wasn't quite the same thing that the GOP will actively do with such associations.

    I just hope enough Democrats actually were listening to Clinton and consciously decided to ignore the implications and figured Obama could win anyway. I don't want Dems scratching their heads if the Ayers-Rezko-Wright stuff does sink Obama somehow.

    Parent

    If you average these two polls. . . (5.00 / 1) (#3)
    by LarryInNYC on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 09:20:50 AM EST
    Obama leads McCain nationally by 9.5 points.  Which, rounded off, is 10 points.  Which, I've been told, only a fool would imagine is possible in today's political climate.

    Of course, when Gallup and Hotline come in later today at 7 points the average will move down to a bit above an 8 point lead.  But the numbers still appear to be trending up for Obama.  At this point, it's almost a certainty that, at some point during the last month of the campaign, this will be a ten point election.

    And remember -- that's ten points with a black candidate at the top of the ticket, running against a Republican "war hero".  If you consider the voters he must be losing due to plain old racism, it's clear that the underlying nature of the campaign is probably more than ten points.

    Will the final result look like this?  It depends on whether John McCain retains the tiniest shred of decency and concern for the nation.  If not, he'll work hard to tear the nation apart in a hopeless attempt to win the election.  Since I don't believe McCain necessarily had the tiniest shred of decency before the campaign, and since I think right now he's thinking only of himself and not the good of the country, I imagine he'll pull out all the stops.  In that case, I figure odds of 50% that he'll succeed in cutting into Obama's lead -- and 50% that his attempts will be seen for what they are and result in an increased turnout for Obama.

    No decency at all (none / 0) (#14)
    by Newt on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 10:24:37 AM EST
    Look at their ads, look at what Palin keeps spouting.  It's all culture war.  They're ingraining the "us versus them" mentality with their "Obama is naïve and dangerous" meme.  When Sarah Palin says, "This is not a man who sees America as you see America and as I see America," she's saying it's Us vs. Them, and we're the jerk liberals who tax and spend and coddle terrorists.

    Even if we win, there'll be a big chunk of our country hating us again.  

    Of course, I'm kinda hating our party too, after the betrayal of the bailout bill.  

    Parent

    Same campaign they always run (none / 0) (#16)
    by ruffian on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 10:44:18 AM EST
    Hating us again? When did they stop?

    I could handle them hating us better if our leaders would actually stand up for us.

    Parent

    I've got money riding on you here Larry (none / 0) (#34)
    by Faust on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 12:27:53 PM EST
    don't screw this up for me!

    Parent
    You're betting my political (none / 0) (#47)
    by LarryInNYC on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 03:48:19 PM EST
    opinion is right?  I'd bet against you on that myself!

    Parent
    most americans don't care about holc (5.00 / 1) (#4)
    by Jlvngstn on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 09:23:02 AM EST
    but being as they are forcing a couple more million americans into bankruptcy with their complete apathy toward job creation, many americans should realize they are going to need it.

    They can have an emergency session to stabilize the market and no emergency session to address the 10 million plus americans who are looking for work and the few hundred thousand that are about to lose their jobs....

    Not too concerned about (none / 0) (#7)
    by Fabian on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 09:39:01 AM EST
    the financial sector jobs.  They are reaping what they sowed.  I remember a number of local real estate related businesses folding in the last couple years.  The money dried up for those companies that made their profits on loose/easy credit.  

    We should be building our green energy industries NOW because in fifty years, the financial sector won't be sufficient to power our nation.  Imagine a financial sector without electricity.  Finance industries can up and move if they need to.  

    Parent

    Wow (none / 0) (#13)
    by flyerhawk on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 10:20:50 AM EST
    You realize that most of the people losing their jobs in the financial sector are accountants,  H.R. administrators, I.T., and other support jobs?

    Parent
    and all the small biz (none / 0) (#32)
    by Jlvngstn on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 11:53:08 AM EST
    that were doing biz with them, graphic designers, pr, advtsg, recruiting, it support etc.

    I feel bad for all the workers regardless of level.  It was not and is not a sequestered problem.  A few bad apples and lack of regulation....

    Parent

    They were working in an (none / 0) (#52)
    by Fabian on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 05:42:30 AM EST
    unsustainable environment.  It's like logging - cut all the trees down and pretty soon, no more industry, no more jobs.  It's not their fault, and their skills are transferable to other industries.  IT, HR, CPA - those are not industry specific skills.  

    I feel sorry for them, but I've got rels who are worse off than they are right now.  None of them are victims of mortgage scams either.  Just things like competing for jobs against undocumented workers.  The kind of things that people in the finance industry may, eventually, be concerned with.

    Parent

    Interesting observations, Larry (5.00 / 0) (#5)
    by rdandrea on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 09:26:11 AM EST
    I'd be more comfortable if he was up by 15.

    I figure 10 points is necessary for the "Bradley Effect" and another five for voter caging, disenfranchisement of students, and plain old electronic vote stealing.

    Still, the trend is headed in the right direction.

    Ohio Dispatch (5.00 / 0) (#15)
    by flyerhawk on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 10:30:43 AM EST
    has Obama with a 7 point leave in Ohio.

    2200 likely voters.

    You should read the quotes from Ohio McCain supporters in that article.  Wow.  

    The election is over (none / 0) (#24)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 11:06:08 AM EST
    Next you'll tell me Obama is up 8 in Florida or something.

    Parent
    I forgot that. (none / 0) (#25)
    by LarryInNYC on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 11:11:37 AM EST
    Wasn't someone around here saying that only a crazy person could imagine Obama taking Florida?  That any such hope was just as foolish as imagining we could have a ten point election?

    Parent
    The fundamentals of the economy are strong (5.00 / 1) (#28)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 11:27:40 AM EST


    Parent
    Ah, but. . . (none / 0) (#29)
    by LarryInNYC on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 11:37:19 AM EST
    the fact is that the fundamentals of the McCain campaign have been weak from the beginning.  John McCain -- weak in the "fundamentals".

    "Fundamentals are strong" will probably become the most famous line from this campaign.  But that's not because McCain made one, huge, atypical gaffe.  It's just because that was the biggest, most ill-timed gaffe of many.  There have been a number, and there will be more.


    Parent

    I expect him to win FL bigger than OH (none / 0) (#27)
    by andgarden on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 11:24:48 AM EST


    Parent
    Is the final desperate act (5.00 / 0) (#19)
    by CoralGables on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 10:48:49 AM EST
    by the McCain campaign to try and reach 200 electoral votes taking place today when Gov Palin visits Omaha? My tally based on the latest state polling has McCain falling to 199 EV's if Obama takes the Omaha Congressional District (Nebraska and Maine not being winner take all states)

    A Republican presidential campaign feeling the need to spend time in Nebraska...this is stunning.

    On the flipside, call it excellent groundwork by the Obama campaign to have field offices in Omaha. That electoral vote tie that some worry about will never happen if Obama takes the one EV that comes from winning Omaha.

    Another poll (none / 0) (#1)
    by flyerhawk on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 08:48:00 AM EST
    Star Tribune released a poll.  Obama up 18 in Minnesota.  

    That is a pretty huge number.  1084 respondents.  The same poll had the race tied a month ago.

    Looks like the SurveryUSA poll may be a notable outlier.

    Thanks Hillary? (none / 0) (#10)
    by 1jpb on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 09:57:41 AM EST
    Well, OK.

    But, it's also helpful that BHO runs a good campaign, and he is a very good campaigner (who seems to only get better.)  He could have very easily crashed and burned.  

    His entire strategy depended on his ability to go the distance without blowing up.  If he was weaker and less wise his Change would have been the scary choice, and McCain's Experience would have been the safe option.

    P.S.
    For proof of BHO's ability to go the distance and stand up to challenges look at the recent Biden (new Newsweek piece) and WJC comments about the bailout.

    Biden indicates that the he wasn't fully won over by BHO until he saw how BHO drove the bailout issue behind the scenes.  (Funny to see a politician inadvertently acknowledge that he signed up for the VP slot when he still had questions about the principle.)

    WJC seemingly desperate for authentic ways to strongly support BHO was able to latch on to the way BHO smartly, prudently, and authoritatively dealt with the bailout issue.  (And, he got to note that many of his advisers were in the mix, so there was an irresistible self-aggrandizement bonus.)

    Here are terrible political instintcts (5.00 / 3) (#12)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 10:20:15 AM EST
    Biden indicates that the he wasn't fully won over by BHO until he saw how BHO drove the bailout issue behind the scenes.  (Funny to see a politician inadvertently acknowledge that he signed up for the VP slot when he still had questions about the principle.)

    WJC seemingly desperate for authentic ways to strongly support BHO was able to latch on to the way BHO smartly, prudently, and authoritatively dealt with the bailout issue.  (And, he got to note that many of his advisers were in the mix, so there was an irresistible self-aggrandizement bonus.)

    You want Obama to own the bailout? You want to signal Clinton groping for some reason to be for Obama? You want Biden to have doubts about Obama UNTIL the bailout?

    Whew!! Boy oh boy, thank gawd Axelrod is not thinking like you are.

    Parent

    The Dem surrogate on This Week (none / 0) (#17)
    by ruffian on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 10:47:22 AM EST
    Sherrod Brown also praised Obama for making the bailout happen.  Great.

    I don't get it.

    Parent

    Strange (none / 0) (#22)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 11:04:33 AM EST


    Parent
    I hope the bailout is popular in Ohio (none / 0) (#40)
    by ruffian on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 01:52:06 PM EST
    for Brown to be saying that.

    Parent
    It is what it is. (none / 0) (#30)
    by 1jpb on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 11:38:07 AM EST
    The Biden thing didn't require much interpretation.

    And, it's undeniable that WJC has been slow to warm up to BHO.

    In both of their comments these folks weren't pinning the bailout on BHO; their praise wasn't related to the specifics of the bailout.

    They were praising his leadership style as it was tested on a presidential level issue (arguably a one-time-a-generation financial crisis.)  And, the contrast with McCain's zig zag showmanship probably helped to drive the point.

    Do you know that my interpretation of this is in line with WJC's?  He says that the way to reach out to the undecideds is to identify with them (by acknowledging McCain is a hero, experienced, etc) and then allowing them to pivot with you as you provide logical reasons to turn away from McCain and toward BHO where your visceral apprehension is logically overcome by pointing to new developments that justify having faith in BHO where you were previously shaky.

    It's the difference between tic tac toe and chess.


    Parent

    The bailout will be (none / 0) (#44)
    by Salo on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 02:32:07 PM EST
    one pof of those infamies like Pearl Harbor.

    Parent
    Thanks, Wall Street! (none / 0) (#49)
    by FreakyBeaky on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 04:03:02 PM EST
    Absent Wall Street blowing up, I think it's about 50-50 Obama loses.  The financial crisis seems to have crystallized for a lot of people what's wrong with Republican so-called governance, and as a result I think McCain-Palin has been tuned out, like Bush.  They can attack with all the smears they want now; I don't think anyone will be listening.  

    But I hope Democrats don't draw the wrong lesson here.  Obama is campaigning in a very favorable environment, and even so his lead is due to external events.  He hasn't run a terrible campaign, but it should be stronger.  Suffice to say that he didn't pick the best VP candidate (although he did at least make a responsible choice), his centrist, conciliatory political instincts get the historical moment wrong, and he's VERY lucky that the culture war stuff has been eclipsed by more important events that hit the country in the wallet.  

    That's not to say Obama deserves no credit.  In fact, I think the best part of his campaign has been to the extent that he has become more populist in his rhetoric.  At least he isn't screwing it up.  That counts.

    I suppose we'll have 4 to 8 to see how he'll actually govern (knock on wood).

    Parent

    Too late (none / 0) (#11)
    by lambert on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 10:20:10 AM EST
    A real maverick would have voted No on the bailout -- and it would have been a no-risk vote, too, since the fix was in.

    Yeah - he had his chance for a game changer (none / 0) (#20)
    by ruffian on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 10:49:24 AM EST
    I guess he won't really do anything to win.

    Parent
    Great polls, consistently (none / 0) (#18)
    by outsider on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 10:48:44 AM EST
    I've started having a troubling idea.  Is it possible that there is a Palin-effect in the polls, like a sort of reverse-Bradley effect?  The idea would be that many people are too embarrassed to say they support the McCain ticket, because Palin is such a huge joke, and because they're worried about being berated for putting the country at risk by voting to put her near the presidency, but that, at the booth, they may may still pull the lever for the McCain ticket.

    Reassurance?

    No. . . (none / 0) (#21)
    by LarryInNYC on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 11:02:43 AM EST
    Is it possible


    Parent
    Well that's that then! lol n/t (5.00 / 1) (#31)
    by outsider on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 11:38:56 AM EST


    Parent
    Remember, this is a fellow who (none / 0) (#35)
    by oculus on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 12:28:14 PM EST
    states 9.5 "rounded off" = 10.

    Parent
    Uh. . . (none / 0) (#36)
    by LarryInNYC on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 12:30:25 PM EST
    9.5 rounded off is 10.  In normal mathematical rounding.  In banker's rounding it isn't -- but is anyone going to come out for banker's rounding in the current economic climate?

    Parent
    I'm revisiting basic math (none / 0) (#37)
    by oculus on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 12:32:22 PM EST
    as I tutor a very bright 5th grader.  I'll check with him Monday night.  

    Parent
    Trust but verify. steve m (none / 0) (#50)
    by oculus on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 12:24:01 AM EST
    is correct:

    round off

    Parent

    Except my kudo should go (none / 0) (#51)
    by oculus on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 12:25:16 AM EST
    to larryinnyc, of course.

    Parent
    What value of 9? (none / 0) (#45)
    by Salo on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 02:34:59 PM EST
    What value of 9.5?

    I like what you noted.

    In spite of possible animus toward Obama he's starting to be 10% ahead of McCain.

    I uspect McCain will make a half hearted attack on Ayers, Rezko and Wright issues and then he'll surrender.

    He's not got the stomach for this battle imho.

    Parent

    Funny you should mention that ... (none / 0) (#48)
    by FreakyBeaky on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 03:50:19 PM EST
    ... I was just recalling a conversation I had with one of my neighbors about four years ago in the elevator.  She said Bush was going to win because there were a lot of people who would vote for him but would never admit it.

    People generally don't vote based on the VP though, so I don't think there will be a Palin effect like you mean.

    Parent

    You know the polls are good (none / 0) (#38)
    by Faust on Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 12:33:31 PM EST
    when the poll trolls have all run away. They don't even have anything to cherry pick anymore.  

    The Polls : 10/5 | 52 comments (52 topical)

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