The latest CBS News poll (PDF) tells you all you need to know as to why Obama is a shoo in in this election and what he needs to do to win a landslide. The poll has Obama leading 45-39 over McCain, the same margin he has held now for 3 months. But Obama is not winning by wooing Independents or Republicans. Heck, he is not even dominating Dems as he should. He is winning, and is a shoo in, because the country hates Republicans. Starting with George Bush who has a 25% approval rating.
Obama wins because Dems lead Republicans in party ID by 7 to 10 points. McCain does better with Republicans, 78-11, than Obama does with Democrats, 74-10, while they split Independents 40-40. But there are more Democrats than Republicans now. That is why Obama is winning.
And how does Obama lock in the win in this election and achieve a landslide? By closing the deal with Clinton supporters. The polls shows that Obama only wins Clinton supporters 52-19 with 24% undecided. McCain leads among white women by 42-38 with 17% undecided.
Pick Hillary as his VP and Obama will win in a landslide - a 7 to 10 point win. Don't pick her and it will be a 2-5 point win. It is that simple, as it has been since June.
Obama won by 6.5 points (My exact prediction for those who care). What happened between August 6 and November 4? Anyone care to guess?
Finally, the Cult still will not discuss the issue at hand - John Brennan and his positions on domestic wiretapping and torture.
Update - What is the argument here? I am not sure what the quibble is?
Further Update - the Cult is still scanning my posts and adding to his post. He finally found one I got totally wrong. My mistake was this - like Mark Penn's actually - I did not realize that Obama would utterly dominate the caucuses. I think this held true in the primaries - "He can not win women, Latinos, older voters and lower income non-African Americans." He did not win women, Latinos older voters and lower income non-African American voters. but he ran up the score in the caucuses and one by a very thin margin. You got me on that one Cult.
By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only