Karl Rove's Prediction: Obama 338, McCain 200

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 08:48:54 PM EST
Tags: Barack Obama, John McCain, Karl Rove, 2008 (all tags)

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Via the LA Times, Karl Rove has released his final electoral map predictions.

The final Rove & Co. electoral map (pdf)of the 2008 election cycle points to a 338-200 Barack Obama electoral vote victory over John McCain tomorrow.

All remaining toss-up states have been allocated to the candidate leading in them, with Florida (27 EV) going to Obama, and Indiana (11 EV), Missouri (11 EV), North Carolina (15 EV), and North Dakota (3 EV) going to McCain. The two candidates are in a dead heat in Missouri and North Carolina, but they go to McCain because the most recent polls conducted over this past weekend show him narrowly ahead. Florida, too, could end up in McCain’s column since he’s benefited from recent movement in the state.

Rove's predictions are only 1 EV different than Democratic strategist William Arnone's which I wrote about here.

It will be an early election night if Obama takes PA, FL and Ohio. Does anyone forsee any surprises? I think Obama has a decent shot at North Carolina and a chance at Indiana. I won't be surprised if he tops 350 electoral votes. But I'll gladly take 338 or 339.

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Karl Rove's Prediction: Obama 338, McCain 200 | 13 comments (13 topical)

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All I see (5.00 / 0) (#6)
by TChris on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 09:23:08 PM EST

is Karl Rove hoping to lull Obama voters into a sense of complacency by predicting an easy Obama victory. He expects Democrats to be too lazy or stoned or both to drag themselves to the polls if it looks like they aren't really needed. I expect Democrats, lazy or not, stoned or not, to go vote. I think Obama wins PA, VA, OH, FL, and a squeaker in NC. I think he does well but loses in Indiana. Missouri will be an exact tie.

: His averages comport (none / 0) (#7)
by andgarden on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 09:27:55 PM EST

with the other ones by-and-large.

: I don't think so (none / 0) (#9)
by Steve M on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 10:09:04 PM EST

I think Karl Rove is simply trying to enhance his brand by calling it correctly. He needs to make up for that "the math" debacle from 2006, after all.

NC and IN are quite possible (none / 0) (#1)
by andgarden on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 08:52:24 PM EST

I also think MT and ND are going to surprise.

One of three things is possible. . . (none / 0) (#5)
by LarryInNYC on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 09:14:41 PM EST

and two of them are the polls are off -- in favor of McCain or in favor of Obama.

If the polls are systematically under representing McCain's vote, then we're in for a tough night -- and very few, if any, surprise wins.

If they're off in McCain's favor then most of the tight states will fall.

Generally, I believe the polls get it correct to within a few percentage points, but if there's been one election recently where I thought they might be seriously wrong, it's this one.


Another possibility: (none / 0) (#10)
by oculus on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 10:21:31 PM EST

LarryinNYC is hedging his bets.


: My bet. . . (none / 0) (#12)
by LarryInNYC on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 08:55:04 AM EST

has always been a guess -- I don't have any "methodology" behind it.
So yes, my bet is that the polls are wrong in McCain's favor -- Obama will do considerably better in the popular vote than the polls say.

Yeah (none / 0) (#2)
by zvs888 on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 08:54:33 PM EST

338 looks pretty good with NC possibly bringing the gravy if turnout breaks the ceiling as expected.

Missouri and Indiana look a lot harder though, although who knows, they should both come close enough to bring out if youth turnout is strong enough.

If those two go Obama, I wouldn't be surprised if one of Montana and North Dakota does as well.

Seems as if those states are tied together; I kind of feel as if Obama will either get 338, 353, or 375/378.

So yea, Montana or North Dakota could end up bringing in a surprise if Indiana goes Obama.

Heavy rains in NC (none / 0) (#3)
by cannondaddy on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 08:57:52 PM EST

could help Obama if he has a lead with early voters. My surprise pick is Obama picking up a EV in Nebraska...

Florida is on BTD. (none / 0) (#4)
by LarryInNYC on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 09:12:18 PM EST

I've done my job, and I feel quite confident about New York. Let's see if BTD comes through!

You guys are a little (none / 0) (#8)
by dcaster on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 09:45:55 PM EST

too overconfident.

From my perch here in southwest Ohio, I think Obama gets 282 EVs. VA, NV, NM, and Iowa (of course). Everthing else mirrors 2004.

But I hope I'm being too pessimistic.

Rove's map (none / 0) (#11)
by Ellis on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 01:49:13 AM EST

Looks a lot more realistic than the one Kos put out, which basically just said every state that could possibly go to Obama (except maybe Montana and N. Dak.) will go to Obama. That's likely just wishful thinking, but then successful website aside, I've never been very impressed with Kos himself.

hm (none / 0) (#13)
by connecticut yankee on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 10:05:32 AM EST

Anyone ask him what happened to the permanent conservative autocracy? Just curious.