Races To Watch Tuesday Night

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 08:45:38 AM EST
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Besides the Presidential race, the races I will be most interested in are (1) Jim Martin's attempt to unseat the execrable Saxby Chambliss in the Georgia Senate race, where Chambliss has a narrow lead. Winning this one would be sweet. It is probably heading for a runoff as the winner must clear 50% in Georgia. (2) Al Franken's bid to win the Minnesota Senate seat once held by the late Paul Wellstone from Norm Coleman. It's tight, with a strong 3rd Party challenger as well.(3) Gary Trauner's bid to capture the Wyoming House seat once held by Dick Cheney. It's a close race. (4) Darcy Burner's bid to defeat Dave Reichert in WA-08. Burner did not run the campaign I would have recommended (too soft on Reichert imo) but she would be a great addition in the House. (5) Joe Garcia's bid to defeat one of the Diaz Balart brothers in Miami. Joe is a good guy and funny to boot.

What races will you be following?

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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Races To Watch Tuesday Night | 28 comments (28 topical)

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Prop 8 in CA (5.00 / 4) (#1)
by AF on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 09:12:35 AM EST

It would make an Obama victory slightly bittersweet if my home state and one of the most progressives states in the country turned back the clock and voted for inequality.

: CA Field poll (5.00 / 2) (#3)
by pontificator on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 09:16:43 AM EST

has No leading and Yes under 50%. Ballot initiatives almost always lose with those kind of numbers. But, even with that, I definitely will be staying up late for this one.

: This is the one I'll be watching also (5.00 / 1) (#8)
by Democratic Cat on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 09:50:42 AM EST

I'm sad that I can no longer vote there, having recently moved away from the Golden State, but I'm counting on my fellow Californians to do the right thing and vote down this stinker.

: This is a big deal for me as well (5.00 / 1) (#12)
by kenosharick on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 10:41:09 AM EST

My best friend lives in VanNuys, and he is worried.

Al Franken may be the most unpredictable (5.00 / 3) (#2)
by pontificator on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 09:15:06 AM EST

The polls are all over the map, and nobody knows where it will end up. Franken could win by 10, or Coleman could win by 10. It's that crazy.

Of course, it would be a hell of a lot of fun to have Franken in the Senate, so I have my fingers crossed on this one.

A pro comedian.... (none / 0) (#7)
by kdog on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 09:50:31 AM EST

would be a welcome change from the unintentional comedians usually rockin' the halls of Congress.

Not that Franken is much of a comedian or anything...his funniest work was 5 minutes of screen time in "Trading Places"...but still a welcome change.


: A top notch comedian (5.00 / 1) (#9)
by Fabian on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 10:03:13 AM EST

would be a helluva politician. Timing, inflection, reading the audience are powerful skills. The best comedians know exactly which lines to use and which to lose in a given situation. Nothing is quite as painful as watching a hearing where members of Congress fail to take advantage of openings, instead plodding ahead with their prepared questions. (Often the questions are repetitive. How I wish committee members would coordinate ahead of time!)

It's no coincidence that voice actors are often comedians. With only their voices, they have to create and portray a character convincingly.

I wonder if Obama's (none / 0) (#24)
by mg7505 on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 01:46:59 PM EST

presence helped Franken (by enthusing Democrats) or hurt him (by stealing his thunder). As a semi-native Minnesotan, I'm surprised that folks are even giving Coleman a chance after his undistinguished Senate career and loathsome stance on issues; the Minnesota voters I know are better than that.

One reason the polls are so wacky: Minnesota is a big state, with lots of rural areas that actually do carry significant weight. People also aren't as responsive to political phone calls, so any pollster who wants an accurate prediction is going to have to cover a lot of ground.


Dole looks doomed (5.00 / 3) (#4)
by lilburro on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 09:18:08 AM EST

so if not one to watch, it's one to savor.

Darcy gave Reichert a solid battle (none / 0) (#5)
by MoveThatBus on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 09:27:15 AM EST

two years ago. It's been a lighter fight this time, but she stands a good chance. She and her family escaped the fire that burned their house to the ground at the beginning of the campaign (electrical), I'd guess her lack of hard hitting has something to do with that distraction. She should have won two years ago; am certainly hoping she wins now.

Murtha's (none / 0) (#6)
by Wile ECoyote on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 09:42:53 AM EST

race.

To be honest (none / 0) (#21)
by Steve M on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 11:53:47 AM EST

I really would not miss Murtha.


: Pennsylvania would (none / 0) (#23)
by andgarden on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 12:09:58 PM EST

His earmarks enrich our state budget every year!
Anyway, I think he'll just skate through.

Downticket items (none / 0) (#11)
by CST on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 10:36:21 AM EST

We have a couple interesting ones in my state.

Question One - eliminate income tax - no thanks!

Question Two - decriminilize possesion of pot - I'll dedicate this one to kdog

Question Three - ban dog fighting - I have no idea. I have heard very conflicting stories. On the one hand people say it's cruel to the dogs. On the other hand, people say it's not really cruel, they changed that part of the law already and lots of people will lose their jobs.

Any info on Question 3 from people who know more about it?

You're a sweetheart CST... (none / 0) (#13)
by kdog on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 10:44:53 AM EST

definitely an improvement, decriminalization is...but not enough, imo. In my eyes the state doesn't have the right to criminalize or decriminalize...only to regulate. But I'll take it, I'm in Boston once in a blue:)

I can't believe dog fighting is legal up by you...that's a surprise. Illegal down here, but still very much around underground.


Oops (none / 0) (#16)
by CST on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 10:48:53 AM EST

Not dog fighting. Dog RACING. My brain is dead today.

Question 2 actually goes pretty far, and as far as I know, doesn't have any exceptions for "public view". Although anything over an ounce is the same as it ever was.


: So much for buying in bulk:) (none / 0) (#18)
by kdog on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 10:55:58 AM EST

As for dog racing, regulate and prosecute abuses, but don't ban it...that's my take.

CA-60, Randy "Duke" (none / 0) (#14)
by oculus on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 10:46:25 AM EST

cunningham's former seat. Brian Bilbray replaced Cunningham. Nick Liebham is in the running, despite the seat being redrawn by the California Legislature to be safely Republican.

: CA-50 (none / 0) (#19)
by oculus on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 11:10:15 AM EST

A few months ago I had hope (none / 0) (#15)
by kenosharick on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 10:47:43 AM EST

in the Maine senate race, but that looks lost. I will be watching NH,KY. and Minn closely. As for the House: Chris Shays(Conn.) and "crazy" Michelle Bachman in Minn.

NM,s 1st Congressional District... (none / 0) (#17)
by desertswine on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 10:50:24 AM EST

Martin Heinrich vs. the odious Darren White for Heather Wilson's old seat which she stupidly gave up to run for the senate. Gonna be a cliffhanger.

I think Heinrich's got it (none / 0) (#20)
by andgarden on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 11:37:31 AM EST

There's gonna be an entirely blue Congressional Delegation from NM in January I think.


: I hope... (none / 0) (#28)
by desertswine on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 02:48:23 PM EST

but it's still giving me the heebie-jeebies.
The thought of Darren White... yech!

I'll be watching (none / 0) (#22)
by oldpro on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 12:02:15 PM EST

the governor's race between Gregoire and Rossi along with Murtha's, Chambliss', Franken/Coleman and Burner/Reichert.

Also interested in the effect, if any, of early east coast calls on the mountain west and west coast voting in poll-voting states.

Should be a fascinating night...and some close races stringing it out for 10 days or more!

Oregon senate race: Jeff Merkley vs Gordon Smith (none / 0) (#25)
by caseyOR on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 01:51:02 PM EST

It's a tight race. Gordon Smith has tried to disguise himself as a fellow traveler with Democrats. His ads feature Obama, Teddy Kennedy and Ron Wyden (our other senator). No mention of Bush, McCain or Republicans from Smith.

This has been a very ugly, vicious race. Wyden had to demand that Smith stop running an ad with Wyden's signature, which seemed to imply that Wyden was endorsing. And Obama cut a TV ad for Jeff Merkley.

Smith is evil, but he is a wily politician. The Oregonian endorsed Smith, mostly it seemed because Gordon is not a whackjob Republican, and also I think because Gordon is the last Republican holding state-wide office in Oregon. The state Republican party is bankrupt financially. They had to close their office. And although the Oregonian endorsed Obama, the paper doesn't really like Democrats.

It's going to be close. Don't think we'll know the outcome until late.


: Yes...late, late, late.... (none / 0) (#29)
by oldpro on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 06:23:16 PM EST

but at least, as an all-mailin vote, at least you won't be standing in line in the rain!

I'll be following (none / 0) (#26)
by mg7505 on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 01:53:12 PM EST

Chambliss, but only so I can hear the commentators try and say "Saxby Chambliss" without laughing. But also because that racist man needs to end his political career and spend the rest of his days sitting on his porch muttering about ethnic minorities (which is more or less what he did in Congress).

While standing in the line for early voting (none / 0) (#27)
by easilydistracted on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 02:27:01 PM EST

two weeks ago here in Tarrant County TX, I noted that minorities comprised the majority of early voters at my polling place, at least while I was there. I also noticed they were in and out of the voting booth rather quickly. And that certainly could mean they voted a straight ticket. Cornyn could be in for a surprise. He has had a new ad on TV since Friday evening and I notice its more on the negative side.