Then I ask myself if the Dems are going to nominate someone who lost New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Michigan, Florida, and California.  I cannot see it.  Add Ohio and Pennsylvania to that list and it becomes even harder to believe (Texas, too, although except for its size, it's the same as Utah in terms of Dems winning it).

I know I should see Obama as tied with Clinton, if not ahead.  I do get the arguments his team makes about pledged delegates and the like, but I honestly don't see how he wins the nomination and loses every big democratic state except Illinois.  

I can't tell if I'm in denial since I'm a Clinton supporter or if everyone else is crazy.  Dems don't win without big states, so how can the nominee win without them?   And yet I recognize Obama is at least as likely to be the nominee as Clinton.

"...in the event a state holds such a meeting, caucus, convention or primary prior to or after such dates, the number of pledged delegates elected in each category allocated to the state pursuant to the Call for the National Convention shall be reduced by fifty (50%) percent, and the number of alternates shall also be reduced by fifty (50%) percent."

I think they both pick up Virginia and Ohio, which have been trending blue in recent elections.  Clinton is probably stronger in Ohio and Obama in Virginia, but I think they both win those two states.  Right there is an electoral victory for the Democrats.  

I think both Obama and Clinton have the same chance of carrying Missouri, but I'm less sure it will go democratic.

But to go further, I think Obama has a better chance of adding Colorado and Iowa to the count than Clinton does.  Those are his demos.  That's a 301-237 win.

I think Clinton, because of her strength with hispanic voters has a better chance of adding New Mexico, Nevada, Arkansas and, yes, Florida.   If she got all of these states, that' a 328-210 win.

Now, Obama would have a chance with the states I've set out for Clinton.  And Clinton would have a chance in the states I've set out for Obama.  

My main reason for thinking that Clinton is stronger in a GE is her strength with hispanic voters, who are a growing segment of the electorate and are big in a number of swing states (NM, Nevada, Florida).  The African American vote is likely to be carried by Clinton and Obama in a GE and, in any event, tends to be strongest in deep southern states that neither would carry or democratic strongholds and so while the enthusiasm for Obama in that community might up his popular vote, I don't see it having a big effect on the electoral college numbers.

McCain is beatable.  Will someone just please win outright by 3/4/08?

Obama/Clinton ticket wins easily, in a landslide

Obama/any other running mate, wins easily in a landslide

Clinton/Obama wins easily in a landslide.

Clinton/any other candidate has the only real chance of losing the general.

Clinton certainly won't win Florida without Obama, but Obama could probably take Florida without Clinton.  Obama easily takes Ohio and all the states where Clinton has gotten a victory in the larger states like California, New York, those states are not going to go Republican no matter what happens.

Nor do I see a reason why any thinking person would assume that Obama won't win it all the traditionally Democratic states, of course he will.  Assertions to the contrary are quite simply absurd, and a part of the fear tactics which I become so common coming from Clinton supporters.

The only scenario where the Republicans have any chance of winning the White House is if Clinton gets the nomination and doesn't choose Obama as a running mate, because Clinton is hated a despised all across America by Republicans, independents and Democrats, and many people on the right, left it in the middle will come out to vote against her.  That's the reality.

It's only people who have blighted themselves to the reality of America today who believe that somehow Clinton is the best candidate in the national election.  If she gets the nomination, she will either ride to victory on Obama's coattails, or she will face the real possibility of losing in November.