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JFK, West Virginia, Obama And TX, OH And PA

By Big Tent Democrat

Barack Obama is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. He is likely to be the pledged delegate leader at the end of the process. What else does Obama need? To me, one of two thing. He needs to be the clear popular vote winner (which means larger than the Florida spread) and/or he has to win one of the big contested primaries remaining - Texas, Ohio or Pennsylvania. Why?

To my way of thinking, Obama has yet to prove he can win some of the key states' primaries, states Dems need in a general election. And this is not an unprecedented criteria for a potential nominee. Many like to compare Obama to JFK. And this episode in JFK's fight for the Presidency is instructive:

By May 1960, John F. Kennedy seemed to be the early favorite to win the Democratic presidential nomination, but Lyndon B. Johnson, Hubert H. Humphrey, and Adlai Stevenson all remained strong potential rivals. The West Virginia primary, held on May 10, 1960, proved to be a decisive battleground in the race. Kennedy, who had not faced serious opposition in the other primaries, suddenly faced a serious challenge from Hubert Humphrey, the junior senator from Minnesota. In order to secure his party's nomination, Kennedy had to win West Virginia's delegates. Losing would effectively take the decision off the convention floor and throw it into the hands of the Democratic Party's powerful urban bosses, a development JFK was anxious to avoid because they would favor more seasoned party elders. . . .

I believe Obama is in a somewhat analogous situation. He has lost every contested big state primary except his home state - California, Massachusetts, and New Jersey particularly.

And yes, he lost Florida's vote. Winning one of Texas, Ohio or Pennsylvania seems a fair test for Obama's chances in a general election. I believe it is the last barrier to cross. Can Obama do it?

Update (TL): Comments over 200, this thread is closing, there's a new open thread here.

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    If Obama loses (5.00 / 1) (#72)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:47:36 AM EST
    TX, Oh and PA, then Obama's electability argument becomes practically nonexistent.

    Well (none / 0) (#89)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:59:22 AM EST
    This faring will take a hit, the polls will reflect it, if he loses all 3.

    I think it should NOT be much to ask, if Obama can not win any of them, would NONE of you be at all concerned?

    Parent

    Ok (none / 0) (#106)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:06:58 AM EST
    I would be, but that's just me I guess.

    Parent
    I should have added this below (none / 0) (#137)
    by jcsf on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:44:57 AM EST
    to a comment I had about how this post is a bad electability question.

    But yes, there is the fact that the "times favor the Democrats", which makes this narrow electability question not so useful.

    Parent

    Can't use primary info for the GE (none / 0) (#146)
    by SandyK on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 02:17:09 AM EST
    Again, the high turnout is due to the youth vote, which has history proved never show up for the GE.

    This is like watching the finals of the "American Idol" 8 months in advance.

    Independent votes will depend on who'll finally get the nomination. Depending on what they're voting upon (i.e., "change" or "experience") it'll reflect on their vote in November.

    Right now they're trying to decide the Dem nominee. Once that's decided, if their choice (or anything ugly is revealed within the following months to persuade them from their candidate) is who they like/dislike, can mean if they'll vote for the Dem nominee or McCain or third party.

    As for this independent conservative swing voter, if Obama is the Dem nominee, I'll have to take my vote elsewhere (won't vote for McInsane). This will be the same for the slice of the "indie" pie. So don't count on them to stay if their choice nominee won't get the nomination.

    Parent

    Because (none / 0) (#151)
    by SandyK on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 02:47:37 AM EST
    I'm a moderate Traditional conservative, and not a GOPer. We do exist in the world!

    I argue over Rush and crew all the time, as I don't agree with them as much as I don't agree with Dem agendas. Hate partisan politics (and it should show here too!). Plus, not all on the right are the Religious Right or for corporations.

    Between electing an empire builder wanting to go to war with Russia next, and Hillary, I'll take Hillary. Not that I'll agree with half of her policies, but stability is more important to me -- especially preserving the Constitution.

    But if there's any whiff of appointing radical judges (on either side) to SCOTUS, I'm bolting (and I'll say most moderates and independents will too).

    It's the "less of two evils" vote you're hearing about. Party loyalists won't crossover, but those not tied to the Neo-Con hijacked GOP, can and will. But you'll have to keep us here, any radical talk, and we're gone.

    Parent

    Inexperience (none / 0) (#156)
    by SandyK on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 03:06:14 AM EST
    Hands down.

    He's too green to hold the keys to the kingdom. In ten years, he'll be viable, but not today.

    Hillary can be elected tomorrow, and be ready to form a government; voters have a clue on who her cabinet will be; she has international respect so international relations won't be tried.

    It's about stability and experience. Not throwing everything away for "change", and trying to teach a junior senator how to be presidential (and the international community to get to know him).

    Parent

    Since so much is riding on the poll (none / 0) (#194)
    by Kathy on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 09:20:54 AM EST
    that says Obama beats McCain, if the numbers change, does that mean that Obama drops out?

    Y'all need to work on a better reason for him to get the nomination than a dated poll from an unreliable pollster.  

    If his electability hinges on a poll that gives him a three point advantage over Clinton, then we are all screwed.  There needs to be a better reason to give him the nomination than a poll.

    Parent

    Are you discounting (none / 0) (#161)
    by kenoshaMarge on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 06:36:43 AM EST
    us Independents? Cause we aren't a part of your party. And many of us vote our consciences because we don't want any party telling us how to vote. Since it is beginning to look as if the candidate will be Obama, a lot of us are looking to the Green Party. Especially given another betrayal by the Democrats in the Senate yesterday.

    Parent
    Heh (5.00 / 1) (#210)
    by Steve M on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 09:47:20 AM EST
    Clinton didn't get a dime from facilitating that deal.  He got a big donation to his charitable foundation, which fights AIDS around the world and funds other good causes.  Implying that he personally scored a big payday is just typical Internet sleaze.

    Texas shouldn't be enough (3.00 / 2) (#157)
    by lily15 on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 03:13:41 AM EST
    First, I would draw your attention to Eriposte at
    theleftcoaster.com   He has an excellent analyss of the caucus results.  Also, read the Jay Cost analysis at realclearpolitics.com   Both are instructive in terms of what can be drawn from these results.  Does Texas allow independents?  It seems to me if Clinton wins Penn. and Ohio, Obama should not get the nod...
    One other note...Karl Rove was smirking over at Fox..and while there are many many Democrats convinced of the waning power of Republicans...FISA /telecom immunity passed effortlessly.  If this is waning power, then I am confused.  There is a reason for this...and Democrats appear to be distracted by confusing polls, the meaning of caucuses, etc.  Meanwhile, the Republicans still seem to be accomplishing quite a bit in the minority...on important issues like FISA...

    Progressives are ignoring some big problems...read Joe Wilson's latest...giddy as they are with Obama and fake momentum.  This has been manufactured by the media and aided by the tremendous wealth of Obama's campaign.  Yes, Clinton has made big mistakes...but under the barrage of fire she is facing and virtually no support in the media or progressive blogs, she is holding up well.  Something doesn't  feel right..and the idea that Obama is gliding to the Presidency makes me even more uneasy.  It's too quiet out there.  And Rezko starts Feb 25.  And foreign policy?  Manufactured events? Why do I think something is brewing.

    Big State Primaries (none / 0) (#1)
    by Socraticsilence on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:09:05 AM EST
    I would assume that NC counts as a Big State Primary (if we're counting California, Texas and Mass, then obviously demographics arent an issue, given that they all are stack against Obama-- seriously, Cali is stacked against Obama to the same degree that GA or SC is stacked for him, MA has little more than 50% of the AA population that the US in general has).

    Why would you think that? (none / 0) (#10)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:13:37 AM EST
    North Carolina, with a projected A-A vote of 36% will prove nothing regarding whether Obama can win the big key states.

    Parent
    why include MA in your list (none / 0) (#51)
    by Tano on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:35:01 AM EST
    VA and GA are bigger than MA.
    And WA, though a caucus, is also bigger.

    Parent
    Oversized A-A vote (none / 0) (#71)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:47:25 AM EST
    I wish (none / 0) (#132)
    by SandyK on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:31:43 AM EST
    the Asian American vote was oversized! lol

    Not marginalized as non-important by even using the same abbreviation of the Asian voting block (which covers many ethnic groups under one name). Thus, why folks use, Blacks, instead of AA/A-A.

    Short hand can be disingenious.

    Parent

    Nobody talks about oversized A-A vote (none / 0) (#152)
    by Prabhata on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 02:48:15 AM EST
    Why is that a non-issue?  It is to me.  I'm sure they would vote 99 percent for Obama in November if he wins the nomination, but would that bring the Southern states to the Democratic column?

    Parent
    Overall? (none / 0) (#158)
    by SandyK on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 03:25:00 AM EST
    No.

    And it's because of the radical elements in the Democrat party.

    Even Blacks are weary of radical change of their own values. The reason issues like the bill in GA to limit marriage between men and women passed overwhelmingly, is because over 70% of the Black community voted for it along with the Republicans.

    What works in California and New York, won't work for the more conservative South -- that includes it's Black population.

    Parent

    A good point -- (5.00 / 1) (#206)
    by Cream City on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 09:40:25 AM EST
    portions of the AA vote are very evangelical.  Obama is appealing to them when he gets into his Southern preacher style and with his churchiness -- but when the Repubs remind some of those voters of the liberal principles of the party, they might go McCain.

    Parent
    75% of the latino population is concentrated... (none / 0) (#192)
    by mike in dc on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 09:16:50 AM EST
    ...in 5 states: New York, Texas, California, Florida and Illinois.  
    If Obama's wins in big states with "oversize" AA populations are discounted, why aren't Clinton's wins in big states with "oversize" latino populations?


    Parent
    Because dems have to (none / 0) (#202)
    by herb the verb on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 09:34:11 AM EST
    win those states in November to win the presidency. We don't need to win SC, NC, GA, AL, or MS and probably won't.

    This is obvious, right?

    Parent

    look at those 5 states... (none / 0) (#231)
    by mike in dc on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 10:30:33 AM EST
    ....Obama wins Illinois, which we will win and need to win in November.  Cali and NY are solid blue states who will vote for whomever the Dem nominee is.  Florida was not an official, properly contested primary, ergo drawing conclusions from the results there will lead you astray.  That leaves Texas, which hasn't voted yet, and in which he was only down by 10 in the last poll.  I'd also note that he won his home state by a bigger margin than Clinton won NY.  She barely cracked 50% of the vote in Cali and Florida.  I don't see an unambiguous distinction there.
    Obama won VA handily, it's a fairly populous state that we need to win in November.  He won WA too.  The turnout at many of those red state caucuses far exceeded the turnout at the Republican caucuses, suggesting that he can make them more competitive(and thereby force McCain to expend resources protecting his "base" states.)  Part of the reason these red states are so red in November is that we don't even bother trying to win there.  
    If we nominate Clinton we'll see a 35 state strategy.  If we nominate Obama we'll see a 50 state strategy.  We may only win one or two more states, but our margin in the popular vote will be a lot bigger because the margins in the red states will be tighter.  It will also immensely help our congressional candidates in those red states.

    Parent
    If NC doesn't count then why do MA and CA? (none / 0) (#66)
    by Socraticsilence on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:43:37 AM EST
    Seriously if you're not going to count NC then why should CA count it had a 30% Hispanic vote (and only 7% AA), and in MA there is only a 6% AA population.

    Parent
    Are you proposing (none / 0) (#83)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:53:51 AM EST
    that California be excluded from consideration? Are  you REALLY comparing it, on all criteria to N. Ca?

    You really think a Dem has a chance if they do not win Cali?

    Come now.

    Parent

    No not at all (none / 0) (#105)
    by Socraticsilence on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:06:42 AM EST
    I am however pointing out that given Hillary's reasons for winning California (massive overrepresentation of the Hispanic Vote) its a bit odd to exclude North Carolina for those same reasons win they favor Barck Obama.

    Parent
    There's no reason to think someone couldn't (none / 0) (#195)
    by cannondaddy on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 09:21:51 AM EST
    win GE if they lost a Democratic primary in CA.  You have two strong candidates here, but one has to "lose" in each state primary.

    You really think CA is not going Democratic in the fall?

    Come now.

    Parent

    North Carolina???? (none / 0) (#230)
    by zyx on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 10:25:47 AM EST
    went 56-44 Bush in 2004.

    Whatchoo smoking?

    This is a good resource.

    http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/president/

    Parent

    I partially agree (none / 0) (#2)
    by AF on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:10:06 AM EST
    He needs to one of those things to have a clear claim to the nomination.  But if he does neither -- but has a lead in pledged delegates -- Hillary's claim is not clear.  Rather, it will be the nightmare scenario: backroom wheeling and dealing will determine the nomination, and the supporters of the losing candidate will feel robbed.  

    We're coming to that (5.00 / 1) (#5)
    by andgarden on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:12:03 AM EST
    And I have to say: I would feel quite uncomfortable nominating a candidate who couldn't win Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Texas, or California in a primary.

    Parent
    Most likely not (none / 0) (#28)
    by AF on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:21:54 AM EST
    The way things are going, Obama has a good shot of achieving one of BTD's two criteria and having an undisputable claim on the nomination.  On the other hand, if he doesn't -- ie, if he lose OH, TX, and PA -- that will probably mean Hillary has turned the race around and is also cleaning up in places like IN, WV, KY, PR, etc.  Which would give her the lead in delegates and give her an undisputable claim.  The nightmare scenario is if Hillary comes back, but only part way.  Which is possible, but thankfully unlikely.

    Parent
    Obama (none / 0) (#3)
    by doordiedem0crat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:10:37 AM EST
    has now taken the lead in the count for total democratic voters, INCLUDING MI & FL.

    At this point unless Clinton wins by significant margin in OH and TX or at least take the delegate lead, she should step aside.

    Do You Agree (5.00 / 1) (#6)
    by BDB on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:12:25 AM EST
    that if she does that in Texas and Ohio, wins by let's say 7-10%, that Obama should step aside?

    Parent
    I also (none / 0) (#4)
    by doordiedem0crat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:12:03 AM EST
    think money will now become far bigger issue in the weeks ahead, especially for Clinton.

    Obama will probably take another 30 million in this month.

    Parent

    Another Reason (none / 0) (#9)
    by BDB on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:13:26 AM EST
    Why Clinton has pulled back to Texas and Ohio.  She can be the nominee without the other states.  She cannot be the nominee without these.  Media will be cheaper there than New York and California, so that will help.  

    Parent
    Both should have enough money (none / 0) (#26)
    by jcsf on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:20:03 AM EST
    To soldier on, given the attention being paid to the campaign, which attracts lots of dollars to both sides.

    Parent
    oh come on..... (none / 0) (#128)
    by thereyougo on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:24:46 AM EST
    I should think the little people can only buy so many mugs and caps.

    I'm beginning to think this is bluster.
    The fund raising reports are not coming in fast enough and it might be a little bravado of the O camp. 30 mil in one month?  got a link?

    I agree March will decide what the 4th quarter strategy will be.  I'm sure she didn't expect all the upsets.

    and I agree with BTD that the test will be one of those 3.

    Obama is repeating himself too much and seems tired. Its grueling.


    Parent

    You miss my point (none / 0) (#8)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:12:38 AM EST
    I am discussing the calculus of SDs.

    Parent
    I believe you mean your projection of SD calculus (none / 0) (#16)
    by jcsf on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:15:57 AM EST
    If Obama is ahead in the pop. vote (proportionality calculations for caucus states), ahead in the final count by 100-300, the SD calculus will be quite simple.  They will go for Obama quite readily.

    Parent
    Not Necessarily (5.00 / 1) (#23)
    by BDB on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:18:56 AM EST
    SDs are seated as part of their state delegations and the bigger and bluer the state, the more SDs it has.  If Obama fails to win any of the big states, they may decide to back Clinton.  The pledged delegate count is meaningless, it's nowhere near a proxy for the popular vote.  Thanks to caucuses, it's almost impossible to even know the popular vote for sure.  

    Parent
    If he loses all three (none / 0) (#50)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:34:40 AM EST
    your assumptions seem extremely unlikely to me.

    Parent
    If this is in reference to delegates (none / 0) (#87)
    by jcsf on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:55:22 AM EST
    (And I think it is, in this particular thread) it is very likely that Obama can narrowly lose all three contests, and still be far ahead in delegates (or even narrowly lose TX, and then lose by 10-15 in PA and OH).

    Parent
    No Popular vote (none / 0) (#100)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:04:38 AM EST
    is my reference.

    Parent
    Popular votes (none / 0) (#33)
    by tsackton on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:26:43 AM EST
    I can understand the idea that the popular vote leader has moral currency with superdelegates, regardless of the pledged delegate count. And I agree that Clinton's best path to the nomination right now seems to be winning Texas and Ohio by enough to take and hold the popular vote lead and narrow the pledged delegate lead to something pretty small.

    But what I don't get is the idea that somehow if, at the end of the process, Obama has an unambiguous lead in pledged delegates and the popular vote (i.e., leads even when counting MI and FL in both), why does it matter how he achieved those leads? What difference does it make if he achieved those leads by winning huge in mid-Atlantic states and the Carolinas and losing in Ohio, Texas, PA, CA?

    Parent

    My surmise is (none / 0) (#48)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:33:51 AM EST
    that Obama must win some of the big states to retain a popular vote lead.

    And of course if he wins one of them, he passes my criteria.

    Parent

    okay, that is fair (none / 0) (#67)
    by tsackton on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:43:59 AM EST
    I don't necessarily think that it is true, though. It depends on the size of Clinton's victory. If she wins Ohio and Texas by < 5 points, she almost certainly isn't going to retake the popular vote lead, especially if Obama wins WI by a substantial margin.

    Obama's strategy of huge wins in mid-sized states ends up adding up to a pretty large number of votes. For example, Obama's margins in total votes from VA and MD tonight are roughly the same as Clinton's margins in total votes from CA.

    Parent

    5 point wins in Ohio will be (none / 0) (#81)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:52:20 AM EST
    how much in the popular vote.

    At least 70K.

    TX? The same.

    PA, the same.

    Clinton will lead the popular vote if she wins those three.

    Parent

    Obama currently (none / 0) (#95)
    by tsackton on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:01:30 AM EST
    has an approximately 150K lead in the popular vote in primaries only (with 50% of the MD vote in), if you apportion the MI results according to exit polls. If you just exclude MI, the lead goes up to 200K, which will only grow as the rest of the MD results come in.

    So Clinton has to tie WI (not very likely), and then win TX and OH by 100K each in order to be tied in the popular vote in primaries only on March 5th. And she has to win TX and OH by considerably more than 100K in order to catch Obama in the overall popular vote (including caucuses).

    That is more than a 5 point spread -- it is probably more like a 55- 45 win. That is certainly within reach for Clinton. I'm just saying that even going by the most generous popular vote calculation for Clinton (ignoring caucuses), she has to win by reasonable margins in both OH and TX to retake the popular vote lead on March 5th.

    Parent

    Well (none / 0) (#98)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:04:12 AM EST
    there are few states that Clinto will win, i.e RI and the Commonwealth of Puerot Rico will go her way.

    But should we count their popular vote? I say no.

    Parent

    PR is far from a done deal (none / 0) (#110)
    by Socraticsilence on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:08:31 AM EST
    I'm not convinced she would carry PR, its hispanic population is completely different from the ones in which she enjoys major edges (African origin hispanic as opposed to European origin hispanic).

    Parent
    Trust me (none / 0) (#124)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:16:25 AM EST
    I know Puerto Rico well, the Dem leaders in PR will dictate the votes and they are EXTREMELY close to the Clintons.

    IT will be a blowout.

    Parent

    FALN pardons (none / 0) (#164)
    by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 07:16:03 AM EST

    Is this closeness related to some extent to the FALN pardons?

    Parent
    The FALN pardon would be a turn off (none / 0) (#183)
    by Florida Resident on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 09:03:13 AM EST
    to those who participate in the primaries in PR.  One problem in PR is that there all the primary voters are independents since the electoral registration there is not done according to National Parties but by Local Parties.  ie PNP a mix of Republicans and Democrats who are for statehood, PPD if they vote in the primary count them for Clinton they believe in the Status Quo, and the PIP and others who are pro-independence do not partake in the primaries.  Chances are that Local Democratic leaders will swing democratic voters to Clinton so it depends if Republican leaders push their voters and toward the Democratic primary and then who they decide they want McCain to face.  Another thing interest in national politics in PR is very limited not much turnout historically in primaries.

    Parent
    SeanD (none / 0) (#166)
    by seand on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 07:58:32 AM EST
    Ah... letting the machine decide who should vote how... doesn't it just warm your heart?

    Parent
    And that goes for Both the PNP (none / 0) (#205)
    by Florida Resident on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 09:38:42 AM EST
    and PPD Dem leaders.

    Parent
    Please explain what African Hispanic (none / 0) (#186)
    by Florida Resident on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 09:06:22 AM EST
    as opposed to European Hispanic means.

    Parent
    How are you accounting for popular votes (none / 0) (#102)
    by jcsf on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:05:33 AM EST
    In caucus states?

    Your argument by popular vote has to include that, otherwise you are picking and choosing which populations count in your popular vote.

    Parent

    I'll take estimates (none / 0) (#123)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:15:33 AM EST
    but even better are hard counts, you can do that for Nevada, which Clinton probably won by 8-10 points.

    Parent
    caucus states (none / 0) (#134)
    by tsackton on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:33:19 AM EST
    Only 4 caucus states so far (Iowa, Nevada, Washington, and Maine) have not reported the number of caucus attendees supporting each candidate (after viability and redistribution, unfortunately, but in a two person race that is less of a concern).

    Nevada and Maine report turnout on the respect Dem state parties, allowing an estimate of caucus attendee support for each candidate. Washington and Iowa, as far as I know, have not reported exact turnout numbers, but estimates of turnout are available from state Dem party press releases or statements, which can then be used to estimate caucus attendee support for each candidate.

    So it actually isn't that difficult.

    In Nevada, for example, I estimated that Clinton won 59,782 - 53,047.

    Parent

    Because Most SD Are Tied to the Big Blue States (none / 0) (#59)
    by BDB on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:39:35 AM EST
    And I'm not sure they are going to feel comfortable going against their constituents and nominating a guy who couldn't win any one of these states:  NY, NJ, MA, MI, OH, PA, TX, FL, MI, CA.    

    First, that list has democratic hot button states, OH and FL.  Second, running primaries in these big states is much more similar to running a GE than winning the Nebraska caucuses.  And that's what Dems care most about, winning.

    If I'm a California Congresswoman whose district went 3-1 for Clinton, the safest thing I can do is vote for Clinton.  You might not like it in Peoria, but I don't need your vote when I'm up for re-election.  

    Now, a large popular vote lead without the big states might be enough, but realistically that's not going to happen without a big state win.  Otherwise we're looking at a very small Obama popular vote lead - if he's lucky - and many of those votes will be coming from caucus states, which are nothing like running in the GE.  At that point, if I'm a Super from a Clinton big state it's going to start getting pretty hard for me to put the guy who lost my state/district over the top.  Not impossible, maybe, but hard.

    But I think that's unlikely.  If Clinton sweeps the big states, I think she'll be ahead in the popular vote.  Look how many smaller state wins it took for Obama to catch her this time.

    Parent

    okay (none / 0) (#69)
    by tsackton on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:46:22 AM EST
    But doesn't it then make more sense to say that the important thing is not winning the big states, it is the popular vote count?

    It is perfectly fine to then surmise that the only way Obama can maintain his popular vote lead is by holding on in at least one big state. But that isn't the same thing as saying that Obama must win one of OH/PA/TX, regardless of the popular vote outcome.

    Parent

    I'll say it (none / 0) (#79)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:51:12 AM EST
    I just do not understand the math that has Obama losing TX, OH and PA and still holding the popular vote lead.

    Parent
    51-49 (none / 0) (#113)
    by AF on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:09:19 AM EST
    That is the math.  If Hillary wins one or two of those states by that margin, and the others by less than 10 points, Obama could retain the popular vote lead if he does well in WI and NC.

    The fundamental point of disconnect seems to be that you are talking about "winning" TX, OH, and PA as if they were winner-take-all and there were some large significance to winning by a vote rather than losing by a vote. I, and some other commenters, disagree.  The bench marks are delegates and votes, not states.

    Parent

    Well (none / 0) (#120)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:14:42 AM EST
    We'll see but most primaries have had decisive winner. Certainly the big states.

    Parent
    Here is the math (none / 0) (#126)
    by tsackton on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:20:43 AM EST
    Let's take two sets of numbers - the estimated popular vote in primaries and caucuses (that uses caucus turnout to infer the number of caucusgoers that supported each candidate, and "corrects" the MI vote based on exit polls), and the total popular vote in primaries excluding MI. The current numbers are:

    count 1: 9,842,880 Clinton / 10,281,041 Obama (Obama +438K)
    count 2: 9,199,888 Clinton / 9,402,341 Obama (Obama +200K).

    Let's further say that Obama can add 50K to his margin next Tuesday (probably a pretty conservative estimate), and another 80K in Mississippi (approximately the margin he won Alabama by, which seems reasonable for Mississippi; they have approximately the same number of delegates, suggesting roughly equal numbers of Dems). So that means Clinton needs to get between 330K and 568K more votes than Obama in OH, TX, and PA to tie the popular vote.

    Turnout has averaged ~10,000 voters per delegate for the 4 biggest contests. If we assume the same for TX, OH, and PA, that means turnout of approx 5.8 million for those three states. If Clinton wins by 5 points (52.5-47.5) in all three, she only gains ~290K votes. Obviously, she doesn't have to win by much more than 5 points to take a narrow popular vote lead based on this math, and 5 point losses across the board would leave Obama with a rather narrow lead, depending on how you count the popular vote.

    But the math is perfectly possible. I have no idea how likely this kind of scenario is, I just want to point out that winning OH, TX, and PA is not some sort of automatic guarantee that Clinton will retake the popular vote lead.

    Parent

    Yes and No (none / 0) (#85)
    by BDB on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:54:17 AM EST
    I think he may still have a problem if his popular vote lead is very small.  Whether it's right or not, I don't think folks find winning Georgia as impressive as Ohio because Georgia is not a swing state.  I think his lack of a big state win outside of Illinois and a state with a large AA population is going to raise electability concerns.  I could be wrong, of course.

    But I think it's very unlikely if Clinton sweeps the big states that the popular vote won't follow, so this is arguing over predictions of something that probably has very little chance of happening.

    Although in this nominating process, it seems like the implausible happens daily.

    Parent

    Popular vote count (none / 0) (#121)
    by PennProgressive on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:15:10 AM EST
    I am not sure why popular vote count is important besides its symbolic value. It is difficult to get a hard count for popular votes in a caucus state anyway. Also, the idea is to nominate the strongest possible candidate for the GE, where the margin of victory in a state does not matter. However, it becomes important to see how many states  a candidate can win during the primary. That  may send a signal as to the perceived strength of the  candidate. And here is a problem for Obama. Many States in his win column are red states. I am not sure if we can be competitive there during GE. But winning big staes, such as CA, TX, OH, PA, NJ, FL, MI are critical for a victory in November. As BTD has pointed  out, Obama must demonstrate that he can win at least one of the remaining big 3, OH, TX and PA. But if he does not win any or wins  one and has  a narrow lead in popular vote and/or pledged delegates then we are in a mess. I guess that many SDs will look at their own state results as well as the performance of  the candidates in the big states.

    Parent
    Weird (none / 0) (#163)
    by chrisvee on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 07:02:42 AM EST
    I just can't believe we'd nominate someone who couldn't win a primary in NY, NJ, MA, MI, OH, PA, TX, FL, MI, CA.  Or someone who won only one of those states.

    Parent
    He can win the nomination with no big state (none / 0) (#7)
    by jcsf on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:12:32 AM EST
    Sure, it would be better if he could win WITH a big state - but it's a false condition to assert he MUST do so.   A criteria chosen by you, in this case.


    Suggested by me (none / 0) (#12)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:14:22 AM EST
    and one I feel confident that SDs will consider seriously.

    Parent
    Take your point (none / 0) (#21)
    by jcsf on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:17:13 AM EST
    But I think the SD's will take more seriously that Clinton is behind 100-200 pledged delegates.

    Of course, that is projection on both of our parts, in any case.

    Parent

    Why Should They Care About Pledged Delegates (5.00 / 1) (#27)
    by BDB on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:20:07 AM EST
    They clearly don't reflect the popular vote -see Iowa where Clinton got one more than Edwards or Nevada where Obama got one more than Clinton.

    To me, they are the useless unless they get you to the magic number.

    Parent

    And the super delegates get to decide (5.00 / 1) (#31)
    by andgarden on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:24:16 AM EST
    on their own criteria. I'm actually fine with that, frankly. There are enough seasoned politicians in the bunch to come up with a standard that won't piss too many people off.

    Frankly, I wish they would get together and produce something along the lines of what BTD outlines here, and that they would do it now. That way, the contest is guaranteed to be over by April.

    Parent

    Because they are democrats (none / 0) (#40)
    by jcsf on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:28:15 AM EST
    Who remember with bitterness the betrayal of Gore in Florida.

    And they are democrats.

    And, they also know that the big states - Cali, NJ, NY - will go for Obama or Clinton.

    Parent

    It seems to me the argument (5.00 / 1) (#43)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:30:30 AM EST
    would be used against Obama, not in his favor.

    First, as for counting the votes in Florida, that is an argument for SEATING the FL delegation.

    Second, if Obama loses TX, OH and PA, it seems very unlikely he will lead in the popular vote.

    IT seems to me the argument you make works AGAINST Obama in this construct.

    Parent

    Seat Florida, won't make a difference (none / 0) (#61)
    by jcsf on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:40:11 AM EST
    As far as final count, as long as proportionality is observed for caucus states (you can't count populations without including those populations), again Obama is ahead.

    Parent
    TX and OH (none / 0) (#62)
    by tsackton on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:40:29 AM EST
    If Obama loses Texas and Ohio, there is quite a good chance that he will maintain his popular vote lead. If he is blow out (by 60-40 margins), obviously Clinton will retake the popular vote lead, and possibly the pledged delegate lead as well.

    But narrow wins (~5 points) in Ohio and Texas are not going to be enough to overcome Obama's ~500K lead in the popular vote.

    Obviously we don't know what is going to happen, and a number of scenarios are possible with regard to OH/TX that range from Obama more-or-less clinching the nomination to Clinton staging a major comeback and making things tough for Obama. But plenty of the possible scenarios include Obama narrow loses in both states without losing either the popular vote lead or the pledged delegate lead.

    Parent

    That 500k lead (none / 0) (#76)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:49:58 AM EST
    excludes Florida and you exclude PA for some reason.

    When you include Florida and assume a 300k swing for Clinton, modest imo, from supposed TX, OH and PA wins, then Clinton would lead the popular vote.

    Parent

    However (none / 0) (#99)
    by dwightkschrute on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:04:27 AM EST
    BTD you're leaving out Wisconsin, Wyoming, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Oregon, all states that Obama could win by decent margins.  Add that to the current 500,000 vote lead and if he stays within 8-9% or so in OH, TX, and PA it would seem he'll still be on top total vote wise.

    Parent
    I do not see it (none / 0) (#103)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:06:00 AM EST
    But hey, show me the math.

    Parent
    Numbers (none / 0) (#138)
    by dwightkschrute on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:45:26 AM EST
    Turnout from 2004 Dem primaries (rounded off)-

    WI 830,000
    OR 370,000
    IN 317,000

    1,517,000 55%-834,350 45%-682,650 dif: 151,700

    TX 840,000
    OH 1,222,000
    PA 790,000

    2,852,000 55%-1,568,600 45%-1,283,400 dif: 285,200

    So even going conservative with a 10% margin of victory for Obama in WI, OR, IN, and the same for Clinton in TX, OH, and PA she'd only gain 133,500 in total votes. So factoring in the 500,000 lead plus whatever HI and others would bring it's entirely plausible he stays ahead in total votes.

    Parent

    500K lead includes Florida (none / 0) (#127)
    by tsackton on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:24:20 AM EST
    it excludes MI, which is complicated to deal with. But it does include Florida.

    Parent
    Wow! You're really confident that HRC will win (none / 0) (#188)
    by Angel on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 09:07:41 AM EST
    big in TX and OH.  I like it, but I'm sort of scared after the losses last night.

    Parent
    Why keep saying the silliness that (none / 0) (#204)
    by Cream City on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 09:37:53 AM EST
    states will go for Obama or Clinton?

    Well, duh.

    Parent

    She won't be if she wins (none / 0) (#35)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:26:57 AM EST
    OH, TX and PA.

    Parent
    Yes, she will be - work out the math (none / 0) (#44)
    by jcsf on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:30:32 AM EST
    The most likely scenario are 10-15% delegate wins in PA, OH, and a narrower win of 5-10% in Texas.  That simply won't be enough to offset Obama elsewhere.

    By the way, you are now arguing circularly.  You've already acknowledged Obama as most likely ahead in pledged delegates.

    Parent

    You have (5.00 / 1) (#57)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:39:08 AM EST
    apparently, a failure to understand the term "popular vote."

    Parent
    The different threads are being messed up (none / 0) (#65)
    by jcsf on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:42:46 AM EST
    But hey, if you want your zinger, enjoy.

    Parent
    In terms of the popular vote? (5.00 / 1) (#58)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:39:21 AM EST
    Of course it will.

    That would likely produce at least a 300,000 vote advantage for Clinton.

    Parent

    Not if you (none / 0) (#75)
    by jcsf on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:48:50 AM EST
    include proportional caucus to population wins.

    Parent
    You're Assuming (none / 0) (#13)
    by BDB on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:14:29 AM EST
    Super Delegates, most of whom come from those big blue states will back Obama if he does not win one of the big states.

    I don't think they will.  

    Parent

    Not true (none / 0) (#29)
    by jcsf on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:24:02 AM EST
    Most superdelegates do not come from the biggest states.  There are more than enough super-delegates from smaller states to overwhelm larger state totals.


    Parent
    Seems counterintuitive (5.00 / 1) (#41)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:28:47 AM EST
    and even troubling.

    One would HOPE the big states would have more superdelegates.

    Parent

    Oh really? (none / 0) (#37)
    by andgarden on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:27:10 AM EST
    add up the numbers. The big states have an advantage.

    Parent
    A better link (none / 0) (#49)
    by jcsf on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:34:37 AM EST
    Is right here.

    As I quickly start to add OH, CA, NJ, NY, and oppose with

    IL, MI, VA, WA, CT, CO, GA, SC, NC, all the small states -

    the numbers of all the smaller AND large midsized states - such as VA - are larger than just the largest states.

    Parent

    MI as in Michigan? (5.00 / 1) (#55)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:38:35 AM EST
    You leave out also MA and FL and OH and PA AND TX.

    Just an oversight I am sure.

    Parent

    If you are counting MA as a large state (none / 0) (#68)
    by jcsf on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:45:27 AM EST
    Then you have to count Georgia as a large state.  In which case, your argument that Obama hasn't won a large state, doesn't hold.

    Parent
    Oversized A-A vote (none / 0) (#96)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:02:29 AM EST
    Sorry, I thought that was understood.

    Parent
    Yes, just an oversight (none / 0) (#70)
    by jcsf on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:47:07 AM EST
    However, it seems as if you are defining "larger" state.  GA by pop is nearly the size of MA.

    Parent
    Super Delegates Aren't Based on Population (none / 0) (#104)
    by BDB on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:06:15 AM EST
    They are mostly democratic members of Congress.  So Georgia has 14 SDs, which I presume includes Jimmy Carter, and Massachusetts has 28.

    There are 794 SDs total, including MI & FL.  The large states we're talking about: NY, NJ, CA, TX, PA, OH, MI, FL, and MA control 282 of the 794 SDs, that's 9 states (18%) controlling 35% of the super delegates.  Of course this doesn't include Obama's home state of Illinois, which is also a large SD state with 29 (which is about the same as MA, for comparison purposes California has 66, NY has 45 and Texas has 32).   Now, these states may not have enough in and of themselves to put Clinton over the top, but it's a formidable block of delegates (some of which, of course, have already "pledged" to Obama) and, of course, she's won other states.  Tennessee, for example, has 15 SDs only three less than NJ.

    I'm not saying all of the SDs from these states will vote as a block, it just seems to me it gives these bigger states a disproportionate amount of influence, it's not 1 state, 1 vote.

    Parent

    if it were up to me (none / 0) (#170)
    by sancho on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 08:25:47 AM EST
    i'd give it to the one who wins the most votes in the most states that went for gore or kerry in the last two elections. that could still be either candidate. dont the republicans give bonus delegates for winning a reliably republican state? dont they also usually win?

     

    Parent

    And if (none / 0) (#216)
    by Bob In Pacifica on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 09:55:50 AM EST
    And if Obama one one big state, as defined by BTD, then he'd have to win two big states. Pulleeze!

    Truth is, one rationale for not having states set up their primaries too early is so that candidates can do some campaigning. You know, get their message out. As every Clinton support now knows and never says, if there were primaries in Michigan and Florida now the results would be much different. Many of the states where Clinton was supposed to win at the beginning of the year Obama is winning by 20% now.

    Clinton supporters don't want do-overs in MI and FL because they know the results will be way different, maybe even wins in the Obama column.

    The sad thing is, no matter what criteria that Big Tent wants to use, Obama is not going to pay any attention to it if he wins the nomination.

    Parent

    As you say, he will be the delegate leader (none / 0) (#11)
    by jcsf on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:13:45 AM EST
    And probably by over 100 -200 delegate leader.

    That is what counts, in this contest.

    Not Unless (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by BDB on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:15:52 AM EST
    He can get to the magic number without Super Delegates, which he can't.  The Super Delegates are going to decide this thing.  The question is who will have the better argument, who will win the needed number over.  

    The argument is that Obama must win Texas, Ohio or Pennsylvania to do that.   Otherwise they'll stick with Clinton.

    Parent

    But t isn't the only thing that counts (none / 0) (#18)
    by andgarden on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:16:26 AM EST
    if he doesn't have enough to secure the nomination with them alone. That is the point of this post.

    Parent
    Well, the royal "they" (none / 0) (#22)
    by jcsf on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:18:37 AM EST
    Is a projection for your own thoughts, again.  That's fine, we all are projecting ahead, but something more would be a better argument.

    Parent
    The question is: what will (5.00 / 1) (#25)
    by andgarden on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:20:02 AM EST
    the super delegates consider in the likely scenario that BTD proposes (Obama strikes out in the big states)?

    Parent
    Correct (none / 0) (#32)
    by jcsf on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:26:00 AM EST
    And again, I say that 100-200 pledged delegate lead will be more than enough to sway the super-delegates.

    Especially considering that the larger states in question - New Jersey, New York, California, all will go for Obama or for Hillary.

    Parent

    It is hard to see (5.00 / 2) (#39)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:28:05 AM EST
    how Obama will retain such a lead if he loses TX,OH and PA.

    Parent
    No it isn't (none / 0) (#53)
    by jcsf on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:35:40 AM EST
    The numbers are pretty clear.  

    Parent
    Indeed they are (5.00 / 1) (#54)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:37:15 AM EST
    I do not understand your populat vote math.

    You do understand the popular vote is separate from the delegate count don't you?

    Parent

    This is where a previous post should have gone (none / 0) (#80)
    by jcsf on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:52:03 AM EST
    "hard to retain such a lead" referring to delegate math.

    It isn't.  She can only take about 70-80  delegates from those states, barring some unforeseen incident.  And that is unlikely.

    Parent

    If the popular vote (5.00 / 2) (#42)
    by BDB on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:29:08 AM EST
    doesn't follow the pledged delegate lead, then Obama is done, IMO.

    The only thing that gives the pledged delegate lead any moral weight is the argument that it substitutes for the popular vote.  We all know that it doesn't.

    Then there's the question of which popular vote wins.  Should California super delegates vote for Obama in a close race?  If he can't convince the SDs from big states to break from those states, he's got big problems, too.

    Parent

    What will count in this contest (none / 0) (#20)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:17:03 AM EST
    is what the SDs consider important.

    I believe they will consider this important.

    Parent

    So, I guess Obama is wearing the mantel (none / 0) (#14)
    by oculus on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:15:46 AM EST
    of JFK after all.  

    I use it for my own purposes here (none / 0) (#19)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:16:57 AM EST
    Yes, and seeing it (5.00 / 1) (#24)
    by oculus on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:19:17 AM EST
    is devastating to those who haven't yet heard Obama's call.

    Parent
    Heh (none / 0) (#34)
    by BDB on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:26:48 AM EST
    Well, I never heard JFK's call myself, but then he was always just another dead president to me.  No childhood memories or scars here from Camelot.

    Hopefully, if Obama is able to pull off the win he won't be facing decades of accusations that he bought it like JFK did in West Virginia.  

    I don't know if I believe that, btw, but I definitely think Nixon had a right to be suspicious about Chicago.  Not that I can every bring myself to feel all that bad for Richard Nixon.

    Parent

    And never will (none / 0) (#160)
    by kenoshaMarge on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 06:32:41 AM EST
    I don't jump on bandwagons. Never have and never will.

    Parent
    I am now convinced (none / 0) (#17)
    by Steve M on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:15:58 AM EST
    that due to the weird nature of the Texas primary, it will be very hard for Hillary to pick up more than a couple delegates there, even if she does extremely well.  She will probably still "win" the state, of course.

    Particularly if Obama wins Wisconsin by a wide margin, I think Hillary will be extremely dependent on pulling off a decisive win in Ohio.

    That's Why I Can't Imagine (none / 0) (#30)
    by BDB on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:24:14 AM EST
    Pledged delegate will matter all that much.  Everyone knows they don't reflect the popular vote. What's Obama going to argue, that he should be the nominee because Texas underweights hispanic votes.

    If he's ahead in the calculated popular vote - although there are variations on that calculation thanks to caucuses - that is a very good argument for him to make.  I don't know if it would overcome the big state argument from Clinton (or if it's even possible if Clinton wins the big states by more than 5 points), but it will be his best argument I think.


    Parent

    If one candidate comes assured of a large lead in pledged delegates (not counting the smaller proportion that will have to negotiated at the convention), then they will almost surely win the lion's share of super-Ds.  

    If the pledged delegates are at parity, or very close to it, then Clinton will win.

    The process isn't as noble as the posters in this forum, so unfortunately, arguments will have less sway than sheer brute self-interest on the part of the super-Ds.  

    Pledged delegate will matter all that much.  Everyone knows they don't reflect the popular vote. What's Obama going to argue, that he should be the nominee because Texas underweights hispanic votes.

    Here is the rub.  They do not have to reflect the popular vote (whatever that is) in order to be effectively used.  They only have to stand out as the one clear benchmark of candidate performance that is objectively measurable.  No one is going to listen to high-minded arguments, noble though they may be.  The only ones who can afford to take the moral high road are the high-profile super-Ds who have little to lose; but, most super-Ds are not high-profile, they are more often state-level office holders with MUCH to lose.  When in doubt they will go with the clearest trend they can find.

    Parent

    Hard to say (none / 0) (#36)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:27:04 AM EST
    the importance is the optics in my construct.

    Parent
    Well (none / 0) (#78)
    by Steve M on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:51:02 AM EST
    I assume we agree that there is some level of pledged delegate advantage where it simply won't be conceivable for the superdelegates to shift the outcome no matter what the optics look like.  Maybe that occurs at a difference of 50 or 100 or 200 pledged delegates or whatever, but there is certainly some such number.

    To avoid this scenario, Clinton not only needs to pick up a big chunk of delegates in the 3 big states, she needs to stop getting blown out by these absurd margins.  Wisconsin should be interesting, it's a state I know well.

    Parent

    No question (none / 0) (#93)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:01:24 AM EST
    And just one win in those states by Obama assures he will have that advantage.

    My construct is so perfect.

    Parent

    The most likely scenario is (none / 0) (#111)
    by jcsf on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:08:45 AM EST
    That Obama will narrowly lose those three (although I hope otherwise), still be FAR ahead in the pledged vote, and, if counting some form of proportionality to caucus population votes, slightly ahead in the popular vote.

    We may get lucky, and Obama wins a popular vote, but the point being made here is, you probably won't get your scenario, even though it would be the best.

    Even not getting your scenario, and the above one in this comment being the case, Obama will be chosen by superdelegates.

    Parent

    I do not see that as the likely scenario (none / 0) (#118)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:12:38 AM EST
    TODAY. Indeed, I suspect either Clinton wins all 3 easily or Obama wins at least one.

    The polling seems clear at this time.

    Parent

    Polling (none / 0) (#187)
    by oldpro on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 09:07:25 AM EST
    How does the polling reinforce both possibilities...Clinton winning all 3 easily or Obama wins one?

    Parent
    Superdelegates (none / 0) (#38)
    by Stellaaa on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:27:28 AM EST
    Most likely the Superdelegates are made up of the set of "spineless" Dems that we all bash. This will be fun to watch them come up with something that is fair and judicious. I will not hold my breath to see the solution come from them.

    A lot (none / 0) (#217)
    by Bob In Pacifica on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 09:58:34 AM EST
    A lot of superdelegates are office holders. Obama is a better candidate at the top of the ticket, especially in Red states. If this continues, expect the endorsements and the superdelegates to break for Obama.

    Spinelessness breaks many ways.

    Parent

    It is important to understand (none / 0) (#45)
    by AF on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:31:05 AM EST
    That in some scenarios both candidates will have legitimate gripes.  This is because there is no good solution to the FL/MI situation.  If they are decisive -- even in the symbolic sense of counting toward the "popular" vote     -- the losing candidate will be justifiably upset.  I think we can all join together in hoping that if our candidate wins, it is by a large enough margin to avoid this.  It would not be good for the Dems in November.

    Seat Fl and recaucus Michigan (none / 0) (#46)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:32:19 AM EST
    That is my Solomonic solution.

    Parent
    It's the obvious and proper solution. (none / 0) (#52)
    by MarkL on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:35:26 AM EST
    Even Icebergslim on Dailykos agrees!


    Parent
    Seating isn't the issue, right? (none / 0) (#60)
    by AF on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:39:44 AM EST
    The non FL and MI delegates decide who to seat.  If enough super-delegates want to seat FL and MI, and if that would tip the balance to Hillary, the super-delegates might as well vote for Hillary in the first place. So really it comes down to the super-delegates.

    But if Obama leads in pledged delegates, and the super-delegates tip it to Hillary on the ground that she has more popular counting Florida, Obama's supporters will feel robbed, with some justification.
     

    Parent

    The effects in the GE (none / 0) (#73)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:47:44 AM EST
    and on SDs is the issue.

    Seating them is the issue.

    I do not understand your comment.

    Parent

    There will be no need to seat them (none / 0) (#119)
    by AF on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:13:49 AM EST
    in order to give the nomination to Hillary.  If the super-delegates want to give the nomination to Hillary by seating them, they are better off just voting for Hillary themselves, so she already has the nomination, and then seating them.  

    Parent
    Exactly!! By George... (none / 0) (#82)
    by Hypatias Father on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:53:40 AM EST
    Popular vote schmopular vote.  The candidate with the sufficient number of pledged-Ds (no, it does not have to be the magic number) will determine who controls the process whereby everything else plays out.  That person will win.  The only caveat is if the per candidate total is at parity or relatively so.  Then, chances are the super-Ds will break for Clinton.  However, if Obama comes in with a smooth 100+ pledged delegate count, then the convention is his.  The super-Ds will follow the CYA-determined calculus, and will not buck the significant trend.

    But if Obama leads in pledged delegates, and the super-delegates tip it to Hillary on the ground that she has more popular counting Florida, Obama's supporters will feel robbed, with some justification.

    Depends on by how much he leads by.  Otherwise, either candidate can sing a sad little song, but in the end it will not matter.  

    Parent

    that actually seems pretty fair (none / 0) (#74)
    by tsackton on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:48:33 AM EST
    to this Obama supporter.

    Let's broker a deal! :-)

    Parent

    Interesting story (none / 0) (#47)
    by robrecht on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:32:34 AM EST
    I don't realy remember Kennedy but I remember HHH very well from '68.  Didn't agree with his war position but he had quite a friendly personality.  Quite a speaker, not lofty rhetoric but infectious enthusiasm.  Obama also has a striking presence--I'm warming to him.  What if RFK had not been asasinated? What if HHH had beat Nixon?  
    What does any of this have to do with Obama?  He has an historic persona.  He could never live up to the promise and hope he inspires in people.  Could he?

    I explained what it has to do with Obama (5.00 / 1) (#63)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:40:37 AM EST
    West Virginia was an "electability" test for JFK.

    TX, OH and PA are electability tests for Obama.

    Parent

    I think (none / 0) (#84)
    by andreww on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:54:07 AM EST
    He passed that test tonight.  While it would of course be preferable for Obama to winn a Big state, MA, NY, NJ are likely going to go for the dems regardless of who the nominee is.  CA will likely also go to the dems.  Because of the margins in VA, MD, MN, and WA I believe Obama wins the electability argument unless he gets trounced in the Big 3.  

    In short, Hillary has beaten Obama in states the Dems will almost certainly win.  Obama has won states the dems can be competitive in IF he's the nominee.

    As stated earlier, I previously agreed with BTD about Obama needing to win one of the big 3, but with the margins of victory tonight and IF he scores well in WI I don't think wins there are necessary.  

    Also, don't forget that NC with 134 delegates on May 6th.  Should he not win in the big 3, he'll still be able to take it to May 6th.

    Parent

    Ofr course you think it (none / 0) (#91)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:00:08 AM EST
    Heck, he could have lost tonight and you would think it.

    I mean NON-Obama supporters.

    Parent

    fair, but (none / 0) (#107)
    by andreww on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:07:22 AM EST
    I've also shown an ability to be objective.  What about my point do you disagree with though?  I'm just pointing out the electoral college math.  With Obama the dems are competitive in all the states Kerry won plus MO, WV, VA, IA, KS, LA and maybe NC.  I think Obama changes the electoral map in a way Hillary doesn't regardless of the OH, TX, PA results unless he gets trounced.  You disagree?

    The Dems aren't going to win TX so I don't think that will be a deciding factor.  If they are about even in PA and OH I don't understand how he's less electable than Hillary.

    Parent

    I do (none / 0) (#116)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:10:30 AM EST
    Right now I am not comfortable with Obama's position in FL, OH and PA.

    Sort of my point.

    Parent

    yes but, (none / 0) (#122)
    by andreww on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:15:27 AM EST
    we lost FL and OH in 04 as well.  If Kerry wins VA and WV, or VA and KS, or MO and KS, or....well you get the point.  I think OH, FL and PA are important - but I don't think they are MORE important that Obama's ability to put all the others in play.  I think Obama and Hillary are equally competitive in FL, OH, and PA against McCain - regardless of who wins them in the primary.  However, Obama also makes the dems competitive in additional states.

    Parent
    Explain how Obama wins West Virginia (none / 0) (#133)
    by Shawn on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:33:13 AM EST
    Very small black population, conservative Dems and I think it's one of the oldest populations in the country...how does that become an Obama state? I mean, I don't think he can win half the other states you named either, but I can imagine what your thinking is. But how does he win WV?

    Parent
    County WVa Out (none / 0) (#168)
    by liminal on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 08:06:38 AM EST
    I just wanted to echo your comment.  I don't see Obama winning WVa in the general unless he wins a crazy landslide.  It goes beyond the demographic issues: he flip-flopped on some coal issues that he'd promised for Southern Illinois (note: I tend to agree with his position, but West Virginians would like coal to be the answer to any- and every-thing), and I suspect the NRA will be hostile to his candidacy.  Coal and guns lost WVa for Gore.  They'll lose it for Obama too.  I suspect Clinton has a better chance of winning WVa in the general, but don't think she can count on it, either.

    Parent
    I didn't have any trouble (none / 0) (#90)
    by robrecht on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:59:34 AM EST
    following your point.  My question was rhetorical.  If it needs to be explained, I suppose it just brings up the possibility that the some superdelegates may fall victim to the personality cult.

    Parent
    We'll see (none / 0) (#115)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:09:37 AM EST
    BTD, (none / 0) (#175)
    by sancho on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 08:36:16 AM EST
    I agree with your analysis in the main. But we ain't gonna win Texas in the GE. To me, it is as significant as Utah. In my mind, California and Pennsylvania are the two most telling states of the dem primaries. Ohio is third.

    Parent
    But, wasn't Obama born in Kansas? (none / 0) (#77)
    by oculus on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:50:01 AM EST


    His mother was, and that's important (none / 0) (#97)
    by Cream City on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:02:44 AM EST
    to Kansans.  But I read that he was born in Hawaii.

    Parent
    Hawaii, per Wiki, Obama campaign (none / 0) (#125)
    by oculus on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:19:25 AM EST
    website, and Obama Senata website.

    Parent
    And keep in mind (none / 0) (#147)
    by SandyK on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 02:22:32 AM EST
    Hawaii has a l-a-r-g-e AA (you know Asian Americans?!) community, and the largest Japanese-American community in the USA. And they're voting overwhelmingly for Hillary (the numbers are staggering).

    Considering the ethnic mix in Hawaii with so many Japanese-Americans and Hapas, it's not going to be a shoo in as folks may think, despite him being born there.

    Parent

    I really doubt it (none / 0) (#159)
    by andrewwm on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 06:08:17 AM EST
    The outlook and makeup of the Asian American community on the mainland and Hawai'i is dramatically different. You don't think Hapas on the islands would go for a mixed-race child born on the island??

    AA's on the mainland tend to be much more recent immigrants, and are predominantly Chinese, Korean, and Vietnamese (and tend to be more conservative). The Japanese-American population on the islands, however, are from a much earlier immigration period and tend to be much more liberal.

    Parent

    Like Inoue? (none / 0) (#209)
    by oculus on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 09:44:43 AM EST
    Meaning? (none / 0) (#234)
    by andrewwm on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 10:34:02 AM EST
    The island's AA population is now mostly a multi-racial mix of Japanese, Phillipino, and Pacific Islander (i.e. some native blood), with a smattering of Chinese and Japanese thrown in.

    Almost all of the immigrants came from before the exclusionary laws of the 1920s (for Japanese, Korean) and the annexation of Hawai'i in the 1890s (thus brining into force the Chinese exclusion laws). It's a completely different racial dynamic than, say, Monterrey Park or Flushing on the mainland.

    Parent

    Always a hit on Hillary... (none / 0) (#162)
    by kenoshaMarge on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 06:39:06 AM EST
    If you knew anything at all about die-hard Cubs fans you would know that they never stop being Cubs fans no matter what state they move to. Of course she had to say she was a Yankees fan, she's the Senator from New York. But in her heart, as a die-hard Cubs fan, she will always root for them.

    Parent
    For the record (none / 0) (#88)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:58:04 AM EST
    In Ohio, 2.7MM voted for Kerry. If turnout ids half of that, then 1.3 MM.

    In PA, 2.9MM, half that 1.4MM.

    TX, 2.8MM. half that 1.4MM.

    That would be 4.1 MM. If Clinton wins by say 10 cumlatively, she gains 400,000 votes. By 5, 200,000 votes.

    Any suggestion (none / 0) (#169)
    by hvs on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 08:15:08 AM EST
    that Obama would not win CA in the general election because he lost it in the primary is nonsensical on the face of it. Any suggestion otherwise is disingenuous and not motivated by advancing a truthful discussion but something else.

    I'd like for us to talk about a potential solution to what could be a stalemate: HRC for Senate Majority Leader. Look, the reason many of us like Hillary is that she's an awesome political streetfighter: the Rethugs think they have her or her husband cornered and she pulls a shiv on them. Heck, they used to invite attempted ambushes by the Right when they were in the Whitehouse because they attacked, the Clintons would cream them and only get more popular. Does this not sound like the job description of Senate Majority Leader? They could find a face-saving way of getting the worthless Reid out of there and then let HRC kick some butt! (By the way, her streetfighting is how she builds political capital; it does not make her presidency an attractive thought, though.)

    Parent

    I agree. (5.00 / 1) (#176)
    by liminal on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 08:37:29 AM EST
    I just don't see CA, NY, or MA being in play for the Republicans.  I agree that THAT argument about electability in the fall is a bit foolish; but let's wait until March 4 before we start coming up with face-saving solutions for HRC.  Believe it or not, her streetfighting makes her appealing to me as a voter voting for president.  Believe it or not, Obama reminds me too much of her husband.  (I like Clinton, but he should have been a better president, and was so disorganized in his first several years. )

    Parent
    I think you guys miss the point (none / 0) (#177)
    by Steve M on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 08:38:04 AM EST
    It's not that we think Obama will lose the major blue states in a GE (although anything is possible).  It's that a big-state primary is the best training ground for the nationwide GE.

    Primary elections, and caucuses in particular, are low-turnout affairs.  You can have one rally in Idaho, bring in 20,000 people (nothing to sneeze at, of course), and send them out the next day to win the caucuses for you.  But that's a meaningless strategy for the GE - not just in Idaho, but everywhere.

    There are millions and millions of people who will vote in the GE but not in the primaries, and you're going to have to win them over through the same campaigning techniques that you win big-state primaries with.  If Obama can't win any of those primaries, he ends up looking like a guy who can really, really energize a small number of people, but can't turn out a larger electorate.  That's the problem.

    Parent

    That makes some sense. (none / 0) (#184)
    by liminal on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 09:03:47 AM EST
    Okay, that makes more sense to me.  I still think it's a Democratic year - though if he loses Ohio and Pennsylvania (which I think ARE important swing states in any Democratic strategy), I will be less sanguine about his chances in the GE.

    Parent
    Did you hear McCain's Speech? (none / 0) (#189)
    by Marvin42 on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 09:08:35 AM EST
    He is testing his line against Senator Obama, and I hate to say this, but it actually sounds pretty good.

    "To encourage a country with only rhetoric rather than sound and proven ideas that trust in the strength and courage of free people is not a promise of hope. It is a platitude.

    When I was a young man, I thought glory was the highest ambition, and that all glory was self-glory. My parents tried to teach me otherwise, as did the Naval Academy. But I didn't understand the lesson until later in life, when I confronted challenges I never expected to face."

    I will support whoever wins the democratic nomination, but I think Senator Obamas "yes we can" will go down rapidly against a man who invokes being a prison of war and surviving by hope alone.

    Parent

    Yeah, it did. (none / 0) (#212)
    by liminal on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 09:50:07 AM EST
    I heard the speech.  It did sound pretty good.  I don't like electability arguments regarding the GE period, since - yeah, Kerry, where did that get us?  

    But I agree: I think that McCain's line against Obama sounds, unfortunately, quite good.  Both McCain and Obama will rely on the same voters in the same spectrum - and I do worry that McCain will siphon off those folks, especially in battleground states.  I do honestly think that Clinton has a better case despite her negatives, but I still think that this is a Democratic year no matter who the nominee is, and hope that time bears that out.

    Parent

    California (none / 0) (#179)
    by sancho on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 08:49:54 AM EST
    is not as clear cut for Obama as you may think. I agree. He should win. But. Arnold is very popular and has a rapport with McCain (unlike with Bush, which will make McCain seem anti-Bush to some.) Hispanics will mostly vote for Obama but McCain will peel off more than I would like. McCain will kill with the military vote--Southern Cali. Many liberal (over 45) women may decide not to help Obama, given his tacit endorsement of misogyny toward Hillary. Finally, judging from the comments above, he cant count on all the independent vote come Nov. Bottom line: it will take a lot of money and energy to hold a state that Hillary would win easily. And that will cost him in other areas.

    p. s. (maybe not relevant) Wasn't it Bill who turned california blue? it used to be reliably republican and not all those old republicans have died off yet.

    Parent

    It's been fun (none / 0) (#92)
    by jcsf on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:00:38 AM EST
    But the fundamental disagreement is, if Obama is ahead in the delegate count 100-200 delegates, the super-delegates WILL honor that lead.  

    There has already been that NY Times article on it, and Fineman speaking about it ('the Hilary camp has to keep Obama's delegate lead narrow).

    There is much less evidence (if at all) that superdelegates will shift, because a large state - that doesn't have a large AA population! - wasn't won in a primary setting by Obama.

    The fundmanetla disagreement (none / 0) (#108)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:08:05 AM EST
    is in the belief that he will be up 100-200 delegates if he loses TX, OH and PA.

    And of course on the popular vote.

    Parent

    A l00=200 delegtae lead? (none / 0) (#112)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:09:00 AM EST
    Sure it flies.

    We just do not see how that could be if he loses TX, OH and PA.

    Parent

    Think narrow losses (none / 0) (#117)
    by jcsf on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:11:40 AM EST
    Not blowouts.

    Parent
    Actually, in TX (none / 0) (#129)
    by Hypatias Father on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:28:59 AM EST
    Well, yes, (none / 0) (#139)
    by Hypatias Father on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:47:57 AM EST
    Mathematically speaking as if tonight, it is virtually impossible for her to outright gain more pledged-Ds than he has racked up, thus far.  However, if she can keep the margin slim, less than 50 to his lead, then  the the super-Ds could possibly push her back on top for the nomination.

    To keep the margin slim enough, she would have to win two of the three big states left, and by large numbers, probably in the neighborhood of her garnering 65%.  Possible, but not probable.

    There is another thread on TPM that goes into the fine-details re. the math a little better than here; but, the gist is the same.  If he can keep a 100-150 lead in pledged-Ds, then he will control the convention and win the nomination.  

    Parent

    But the fundamental disagreement is, if Obama is ahead in the delegate count 100-200 delegates, the super-delegates WILL honor that lead.

    Of course, they will.  It will then be in their own self-interests to do so.  CYA calculus is always the most robust in politics.  And despite all the arguments about what state matters more, via demographics, population, voting history, primary vs. caucus, etc., it won't matter a smidge. The total will still be the total.  

    Parent

    All those big states are blue states Bush never (none / 0) (#131)
    by brainwave on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:30:51 AM EST
    won. Which means it's kinda hard to see how Obama would loose any of these in the general. So. I see your big-state-small-state point as far as both Clinton and Obama having some gumption and legitimacy to their claim to the nomination at this point goes. Clinton has it because she wins the big, heterogeneous states; Obama has it because he wins the more purplish, reddish, and libertarian states. But making this a "litmus test" of sorts? I don't really see a convincing justification for that.

    Last thing (none / 0) (#136)
    by jcsf on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:42:07 AM EST
    In a way, this argument is uninteresting - it seems to be coming clear that, Obama WILL be the candidate, if he has a delegate lead, of 100 to 200 delegates.

    The NY Times, and Howard Fineman are at least two sources for that.  We'll probably be hearing more.

    But the worry here, in the initial post is, is Obama the better candidate if he HASN'T won a big state?  This is really an ELECTABILITY question.  

    This is a very narrow perspective, for a host of reasons, as the question as phrased ignores important factors for electability:

    a. In an election where the two candidate don't have significant policy differences, demographics and machine politics make a bigger impact.
    b. A lot of the larger states - NJ, CA, NY, IL, WA, will vote for a turnip if the turnip is running as a Dem candidate.
    c. Demographics aren't the SAME issue, when a democrat runs against a Republican.  Some of the same people who would vote for Hilary on a demographic basis (say single women, and older women) will turn right around and vote for Obama, if he is the guy (and vice versa) rather than vote for the Republican.  So you can't evaluate "electability" in an intra-party election, like you can a two-party election.
    d. No accounting for charisma, discounting earlier DISadvantages of the underdog.  Obama's already come very far.  To come to the point where he eked out a very narrow win on Super Tuesday is HUGE.  And yet, the question discounts the history of the fact that, clearly, INCUMBENCY, not electability, is one of the main reasons why Obama has not won a big state - it's much harder to turn around someone who had a couple of years If not more!!) to line up the organizations in the big states.  As the challenger, Obama had to find a DIFFERENT route to the nomination.

    Doing so through the small states, is NOT proof of a lack of electability, but actually, proof of HUGE ingenuity on the part of Obama and his team.

    So, in the end, it's a very narrow constructed, psuedo-question on electability, that doesn't have much value or validity.

    older women (none / 0) (#214)
    by wasabi on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 09:50:55 AM EST
    I don't buy the fact that older women will move to Obama.  The older population votes on experience and with two "centrists" running, McCain wins with experience.

    Parent
    and none of this math will amount to a (none / 0) (#140)
    by athyrio on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:57:21 AM EST
    Hill of beans if those two entities don't somehow come together because no matter who wins the nomination it will really turn off alot of their opposition...the ultimate prize is the GE and if everyone gets bogged down in the primary win, we ultimately lose IMO....I think we should all be urging them to get together not as a ticket but someone reach compromises...I don't know how, because the longer it goes on, the worse it is....

    Important Statistics about Big Primaries (none / 0) (#141)
    by SandyK on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 02:06:37 AM EST
    This tells a lot in how and why the minorities favor candidates...

    http://www.amptoons.com/blog/archives/2007/11/01/racial-diversity-in-presidential-campaign-staffs/

    The reasons why AA (you know Asian Americans?!) overwhelmly vote for Hillary are varied, but having a demographic of campaign staff reflective of a swath of the community -- shows by example -- how a candidate feels by working WITH them.

    Somewhere in all of this race has to be addressed, and why Obama who's suppose to be representative of race and "unity" in general, doesn't even reflect it in his own campaign staff.

    But that's one reason why Hillary is getting the AA and Latino vote -- she's really representing them.

    I mostly agree with the small exception... (none / 0) (#142)
    by Siguy on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 02:08:33 AM EST
    I mostly agree but with the small exception already noted. If he barely loses those three states the delegate count and the popular vote count will probably still be in his favor and that'll probably land him a victory.

    Here's what's really terrifying me: I like Obama a lot and want him to win, but I also firmly believe that he really should win one of those three states (or at least tie) to prove something. What's scaring me is that Hillary's campaign is doing such an incompetent job in all the races leading up to that she's creating potential for a real bloodbath. I thought before that he'd have a narrow delegate lead and then Ohio and Texas and PA would make things pretty clear by virtue of whoever won.

    But instead, Hillary is getting so viciously creamed in every other state that she may win those three by decent but not spectacular margins and we'll be left with a hideous super delegate decision about which factors matter and which states matter and which argument factor and it'll just be a damned bloodbath. Frankly, I'm worried about the party. I'm worried about choosing Obama if he can't win one of those states, and I'm worried about choosing Hillary in a bloodbath if she's too incompetent to at least show up in one or two caucuses or primaries outside of the big three. For whatever reason, she's done a horrible job and has taken unnecessary thirty point drubbings that a competent organization could've drastically reduced.

    Just worries me a lot. The idea of losing to McCain makes me sick to my stomach. I want Barack to win, but I'd happily vote for Hillary if she won. I just don't want it to be a bloodbath. For that reason, I'm now praying Barack wins one of those big three so that there's a clear and decisive delegate advantage and we can just move on to the general.

    I don't really disagree with this (none / 0) (#145)
    by andgarden on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 02:16:55 AM EST
    I voted for him in 2000 (none / 0) (#171)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 08:28:36 AM EST
    Didn't have to hold my nose or anything.

    Can we please remove posts like this? (none / 0) (#182)
    by Marvin42 on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 09:01:52 AM EST
    I have become a refugee to this site because it has become one of the last places on the web where people engage in honest, thoughtful discussion, regardless of who they support. I have been reading for a while and signed up to reply to this post.

    Please don't let this site become a dumping ground of garbage like this.

    Thanks.

    I removed it (none / 0) (#220)
    by Jeralyn on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 10:04:07 AM EST
    and the commenter is warned not to make personal attacks on the candidates.

    Parent
    Don't be so sure (none / 0) (#185)
    by Marvin42 on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 09:03:58 AM EST
    This is a good talking point right now, specially for supports of Senator Obama. But if she wins all three big states the narrative will change as rapidly as in NH when the results started showing a win for the Clinton campaign.

    on winning states in the general election (none / 0) (#191)
    by jd142 on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 09:13:48 AM EST
    To my way of thinking, Obama has yet to prove he can win some of the key states' primaries, states Dems need in a general election.

    I think this is a false analogy.  Just because Obama might lose to Clinton in a key state in the primaries does not mean he would also lose to the Republican nominee in the general election.

    Of course Obama needs to win states to get the delegates, but that statement assumes that people who support Clinton over Obama will support McCain over Obama or stay home.  And you can't do that.

    I think this is fair. (none / 0) (#207)
    by illissius on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 09:40:39 AM EST
    He could still win the nomination if he loses all three of them (narrowly), but it'll be a lot harder for him.

    harder for clinton (none / 0) (#211)
    by jdj on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 09:49:39 AM EST
    If he is ahead in both delegates and popular vote, I would said it is Clinton that will have to make her case.

    Parent
    Custom built? (none / 0) (#215)
    by herb the verb on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 09:51:56 AM EST
    I agree she should be fighting for WI but there is no way that state was custom built for Clinton, and to say that moves the goalpost the other way. Facts about Wisconsin, Illinois borders on the south, there is a huge transplant of black Chicagoans there, a huge population of taciturn, strongly liberal and activist Dems in Madison, and it is an open primary with a large contingent of libertarian, but anti-Clinton independents (who will still vote for McCain in the fall) opening the primary up to their mischief.

    I agree it isn't looking good for Clinton overall, she is definitely the underdog at this point with very few options left, but talk about prematurely throwing in the towel to make things easy for Obama is not going to happen so stop dreaming.

    Obama has to start focusing on how he is going to repair the wounds and lay out his claim for how he is going to win the general election before people like Gore, Edwards and the majority of SD's decide to throw Clinton under the bus. She has a very tenacious core support as well which they can't afford to dismiss as they are integral to success in November. Or at least they won't dismiss them as cavalierly as Obama supporters and Obama himself dismisses them.

    ARG had her up one week ago (none / 0) (#218)
    by jdj on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 10:01:20 AM EST
    ARG had Hillary up over Obama %50 to 41% in a Feb 6-7 poll. That is 9% spread just one week ago.

    Parent
    The difference... (none / 0) (#219)
    by liminal on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 10:03:49 AM EST
    The difference between referring to celebrity couples by a single word in tabloid entertainment and referring to a sitting, two-term Senator by a word originated by wacked out conservatives pissed off because she was a powerful political spouse strikes me as manifest.  Nevertheless, the term implies that she does not and cannot stand on her own.  It is also an attempt to masculinize her (see, to-wit, all of the ugly, sexist merchandise about her).  Really, the term should be excised from normal parlance; it's completely unfair.  If Freepers want to use it, well, okay - but I'm so tired of reading it here, there, and everywhere otherwise.

    xtreme fupa (none / 0) (#221)
    by Jeralyn on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 10:06:44 AM EST
    you are limited to four comments a day. Your tone and your insults are unacceptable and you are becoming a chatterer.

    I am cleaning up the thread (none / 0) (#227)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 10:08:59 AM EST
    Seems a fair question (none / 0) (#224)
    by blogtopus on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 10:07:36 AM EST
    Can Obama win a contested state? Very fair to ask. What if he can't, yet still wins the primary? Is that even possible?

    xtreme fupa has been limited to (none / 0) (#226)
    by Jeralyn on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 10:08:52 AM EST
    4 comments a day.

    Do you honestly think (none / 0) (#228)
    by SpindleCityDem on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 10:14:47 AM EST
    Clinton will win 55% of the remaining delegates?  If she cannot, she lost. Correction, if Obama wins Wisconsin, Hill will have to win 57% of the delegates.   So, I don't think it will be "harder for him" but in fact it will harder for her.  

    Why weren't IA, NH and SC delegates stripped (none / 0) (#229)
    by ivs814 on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 10:19:56 AM EST
    for breaking the same rules as FL and MI?  Why is it that Obama supporters that decree we Clinton supporters are "whining" about FL and MI are not outraged that the rules were conveniently not followed for IA, NH and SC?  See Jerome Armstrong's posting on mydd.com for details. All the arguments that FL and MI delegates should not be seated know that that would greatly enhance Hillary's position and the whatever metrics you want to use; popular vote, delegates and number of states.  And they cannot abide that.

    Comments over 200 (none / 0) (#232)
    by Jeralyn on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 10:32:15 AM EST
    this thread is closing, there's a new open thread here.