Hillary Campaigns in Wisconsin

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 12:24:11 PM EST
Tags: Wisonsin, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama (all tags)

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Wisconsin's Democratic primary, open to Independents, is Tuesday. Hillary Clinton is now campaigning in the state. Here's her schedule:

Both Hillary and Obama will attend and speak at the Founders Day Gala tonight at 6pm CT in Milwaukee.

Here's the exit polling (pdf) from the 2004 Wisconsin primary between John Kerry and John Edwards. NAFTA was a big issue.

The latest polling by Research 2000 has Obama ahead, but within the margin of error. [More...]

A new poll shows Barack Obama ahead of Hillary Clinton in Wisconsin, but the lead is within the poll's margin of error and a sizable number of undecided voters could also swing the vote.

The poll by Research 2000 conducted for Madison's WISC-TV showed Obama with 47% of the vote and Clinton with 42% among likely Democratic voters. The remaining 11% were undecided.

The latest Rasmussen poll also has Obama narrowly ahead, by four points. On likeability:

Obama is viewed favorably by 80% of Likely Democratic Voters in Wisconsin, Clinton by 79%.

Clinton earns her favorable reviews from 84% of women and 71% of men. There is no significant gender gap on Obama’s favorable ratings.

Can Hillary close the gap?

< The Malign Acceptance of Sexism | Voting Malfunctions: Obama Votes in Harlem Not Counted >

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Hillary Campaigns in Wisconsin | 42 comments (42 topical)

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What if Obama wins Wisconsin? (5.00 / 1) (#8)
by voxvox on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 12:37:24 PM EST

If Obama wins Wisconsin, will he be able to claim victory? Or will this be another "didn't count" state?

Hillary has not celebrated a winning delegate night yet in this election. This is an often ignored fact, but it is true. Obama won Iowa, they tied NH, Obama won Nevada by 1 delegate, Obama won South Carolina, Obama won on Super Tuesday, and then we had blowouts last Saturday, Sunday and Tuesday.

We have had 8 nights of contests. Obama has come out on top in 7 of them and tied the other. Tuesday could be the 9th day of contests in which Hillary has not been able to claim a delegate victory.

They have.. (5.00 / 1) (#13)
by hvs on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 12:46:42 PM EST

no choice but to say that WI doesn't count. What else can they do? It's not a particular productive tactic as far as endearing purple state voters to you, but the other option is...what? Mainly, they won't push the idea that it doesn't count; they'll say "look over here, over here, at Ohio!" Via Carville, they've already lowered expectations for OH and TX, so a mere popular vote victory will equal "the greatest comeback in political history."


Well... (none / 0) (#11)
by kenoshaMarge on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 12:46:14 PM EST

Maybe we could discuss that when the voters have had their say.


Errr.... (none / 0) (#14)
by Marvin42 on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 12:47:00 PM EST

First, there were delegates assigned to Sen Clinton in these contests. Sen Obama clearly did much better.

She actually did very well on Super Tuesday (and a few other nights), specially considering the never ending "momentum" stories. I was pretty sure everyone said that CA was lost, she was fighting in NY (!!! New York Times of all publications), NJ and MA.

But Wisconsin isn't about winning imo, its about:

a) Showing they finally get it, every delegate counts and they should have never abandoned small states to Sen Obama, and

b) Making it close, if they do they will stop the insane "momentum" talks.


She did well on Super Tuesday (none / 0) (#16)
by voxvox on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 12:49:47 PM EST

She did do well on Super Tuesday. She also did well in New Hampshire and Nevada.

How does that make my post false? After 8 days of contests, she has not been able to claim more delegates than Obama. Not once. Tie in NH was her best performance.

Nobody is saying Hillary is doing poorly, but she is clearly not the choice of the people.


: she's not your choice (5.00 / 1) (#17)
by Jeralyn on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 12:52:36 PM EST

don't presume to speak for the will of the people.

: Please don't repeat the same thing... (5.00 / 1) (#25)
by Marvin42 on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 01:22:24 PM EST

...over and over. Its called spin, and I think most people here are really not interested. We are refugees here because we want intelligent honest discussion from all sides. Repetition rarely qualifies as intelligent debate.
I already point out the errors as I see them, no need to do it again. But I see that you assume she is not the choice of the people. I honestly have to say that I think both Sen Clinton and Sen Obama are the choice of the democratic party. I honestly could not tell you with any honesty that one or the other is or is not the choice.
Problem with this primary: there are two equally matched choices. Will it change by the convention? Maybe. Do I think its likely: no.

: She didn't win New Mexico (none / 0) (#31)
by Cream City on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 01:33:24 PM EST

on Super Tuesday then, by your framing.
So she won it this week, and that breaks the Obamamentum. Unless you don't count New Mexico's people -- and millions of other people who have voted for her, not to mention those of us who still would like to be heard -- as counting among "the" people in your paradigm?
Please, then, explain to us just which people ought to count among "the" people. North Dakota and Idaho people but not New York and California people? Hmmmm.

: By (none / 0) (#44)
by tek on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 04:24:20 PM EST

the "people" I assume you mean MoveOn.Org?

You failed to mention... (none / 0) (#40)
by john5750 on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 02:15:11 PM EST

Not only did Hillary win Super Tuesday's CALIFORNIA, she won New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Arizona, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and New Mexico.

And, she is ahead in Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and running close in Wisconsin.

People are starting to see Obama is just a lot of hot air. Hillary has what it takes.


With regard to polls.. (none / 0) (#2)
by hvs on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 12:29:13 PM EST

Polster.com has a very interesting graph showing the trend in TX. Based on it, I'd say it's going to be close.

http://www.pollster.com/08-TX-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

please put urls in html format (none / 0) (#3)
by Jeralyn on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 12:31:10 PM EST

using the link button at the top of the comment box. Long ones skew the site requiring me to delete the entire comment.


: html (none / 0) (#6)
by hvs on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 12:35:33 PM EST

You bet, sorry.

Just so you know (none / 0) (#5)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 12:34:24 PM EST

Pollster's regression analysis is utterly pointless here as the polling has been inconsistent and limited to very few polling orgs.

For Texas, Pollster is not very helpful.


Question? (none / 0) (#20)
by kenoshaMarge on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 01:06:08 PM EST

Is there any reliable, as reliable as any poll can actually be, poll for Wisconsin?


The best are always our local polls (none / 0) (#21)
by Cream City on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 01:14:12 PM EST

like the one done at St. Norb's -- but I haven't seen any local polls in eons. Odd.

From what we've seen before, KMarge, I don't ever think that the outsider polls have a handle on our state. It is not a mistake that we elect mavericks like Feingold, Proxmire, etc. We're a maverick state! So polls try to predict based on models that work nationwide, and they don't work well here.


Thanks (none / 0) (#29)
by kenoshaMarge on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 01:32:21 PM EST

I keep seeing postings by people about Obama being up by 9 or 10 or whatever and wondered where the numbers were coming from. And I agree with you about Wisconsin being hard to figure. I see references online all the time about Wisconsin being a "red" state and wonder how that can be when we have two Democratic Senators, well 1 1/2 anyway, and a Democratic Governor.

Yes we do have Sensenbrenner (boo-hiss)but we also have David Obey. All of which only proves your point more I guess. I see us as a lively shade of purple.


Really? Wisconsin a red state?! (none / 0) (#33)
by Cream City on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 01:38:32 PM EST

I've never seen that; do tell where such fools are to be found. Most often, I see simply presumption that Wisconsin is such a "progressive state," which is just as stupid and based on myths of a century ago (i.e., they were myths even then -- Progressivism was not widespread in Wisconsin, where Socialism and Populism were significant at the time, too; plus, Progressivism was not progressive for many minorities and women).

Polls and pundits who base their models and comments on myths are like a badly poured beer -- too much frothy foam, not enough body.

Wisconsin is, as you say, the most purple state of all -- the closest state in the 2004 election. But still blue, if barely -- or, yes, "lively purple."


Kerry won by one point (none / 0) (#36)
by Jeralyn on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 01:42:27 PM EST

Kerry 50%, Bush 49% in Wisconsin in 2004.


: Almost, yes -- but still the closest state (none / 0) (#47)
by Cream City on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 10:27:30 PM EST

is what I said. It's the blue state closest to turning red -- but still a blue state, at least if there are only two crayons in the box. :-)

WIsconsin (none / 0) (#45)
by tek on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 04:26:29 PM EST

has gone Republican recently. In the days of the original Progressives, Wisconsin was very blue, but that has changed. The old Dems got strength from the working class, the party has changed.


Truth is... (none / 0) (#46)
by SandyK on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 05:52:43 PM EST

you won't get accurate polls if they concentrate on metro areas (where national polls like to base things on -- they see a surge in a large city, and claim it represents the whole state [Big issue in GA about Atlanta, for example]).

Unless the state or a state based polling organization is keeping tabs, you'll just have to rely on what numbers are available and look hard at the state's demographics/voting history for "corrections".


Wisconsin's Primaries especially hard to poll (none / 0) (#22)
by Ben Masel on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 01:15:42 PM EST

Between at the polls registration and Open Primary rules, there's no meaningful "likely voter" filter. There's been times turnout in downtown Madison wards where General Election exceeded "100%"


Exceeded 100%? (none / 0) (#32)
by kenoshaMarge on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 01:33:49 PM EST

I like enthusiasm as much as the next person but that may be going a bit far. :)


: It happens around campuses -- (none / 0) (#35)
by Cream City on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 01:40:20 PM EST

for complicated reasons having to do with basing the 100% on past voting numbers, which then are exceeded in high turnout, etc. Happens in my ward, too, near a campus.
More suspect, I think, are figures such as 96%! turnout in very stable but very red Waukesha. . . .

Not ARG (none / 0) (#4)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 12:33:01 PM EST

Research 2000. this is the same poll I discussed yesterday.

Weather (none / 0) (#7)
by Ben Masel on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 12:37:13 PM EST

Today's nice by local standards, 28 and sunny.

Sunday's downright nasty. Assume double normal travel times. If coming from out of town, book a room.

WeatherUnderground.com's Madison forecast
Brisk...snow...sleet...a chance of freezing rain and rain in the morning...then snow in the afternoon. Snow may be heavy at times in the afternoon. Snow and sleet accumulation of 7 to 10 inches. Ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch. Highs in the upper 20s. North winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Hillary will be in Kenosha (none / 0) (#19)
by kenoshaMarge on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 12:57:44 PM EST

Glad to hear Hillary is campaigning here because some people seemed to be holding it against her that she wasn't.

Wes Clark is also here today and has 5 stops.

Weather forecast about the same here in Kenosha as Madison except we aren't expecting quite as much snow.

That could be why I saw so many women voting by absentee ballots at the Municipal Building yesterday. Women tend to worry more about driving conditions I think. At least I do and most of my female friends do too.

FYI, Kenosha, for those not from WI, is in the SE corner of Wisconsin, south of Milwaukee and on Lake Michigan.


: It's good to see (none / 0) (#23)
by badger on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 01:19:47 PM EST

Hillary getting outside of Milwaukee and Madison (Kenosha and De Pere in the list above), since that's probably where her strengths lie and GOTV is more necessary.
De Pere is an upscale Green Bay suburb with a Catholic college (St Norbert's) and the Green Bay TV market covers a lot of N WI and the Fox River Valley (Appleton, Neenah-Menasha, Oshkosh) which is also good territory for her in my guess.

What is the Masel prediction (none / 0) (#30)
by oculus on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 01:32:56 PM EST

for Wisconsin vote results?


Delegates by Congressional District: (none / 0) (#37)
by Ben Masel on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 01:58:39 PM EST

1st (Ryan) narrow Obama, 3-3
2nd (Baldwin) Obama 5-3
3d (Kind) Obama 3-3, plus Kind's said he'll cast his SD vote with the district winner.
4th: (Moore) Obama likely 3-3
5th (Sensenbrenner) Clinton, on prochoice Republican womens' crossover
6th (Petri) Obama, 2-1, I'm not real confident on thkis one.
7th (Obey) Obama, Dicey as to whether he makes the 4-2 split. He romped in Duluth, and the Eau Claire and Stevens Point campuses had monster turnout in '06.
8th (Kagen) 6 delegates. Very narrow Clinton. Kagen's also said he'll cast his SD with the District's voters.

Statewide, Obama by 4-6.


Turnout: (none / 0) (#38)
by Ben Masel on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 02:00:30 PM EST

Highest of any of the States in the cycle. Minnesota sometimes tops us in general elections, but they had a caucus.


: Excellent detail. I'm particularly (none / 0) (#42)
by oculus on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 03:12:19 PM EST

interested in whether Republican women in the GE will vote Dem. due to pro-choice issue.

I deleted comments by (none / 0) (#18)
by Jeralyn on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 12:55:16 PM EST

an overly enthusisastic Hillary commenter named Hillarywillbeprez. They included name-calling and personal attacks on Obama. She will be banned if she continues.

Jeralyn, about the schedule (none / 0) (#24)
by Cream City on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 01:21:17 PM EST

-- word is that there will be a Clinton rally in Milwaukee on Monday night. I'll post more if and as I can, but weather and travel may keep me offline.


Your reference on the poll is wrong (none / 0) (#26)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 01:22:57 PM EST

It is Research 2000, not ARG.


I'll fix it for you (none / 0) (#27)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 01:23:15 PM EST

: ok thanks (none / 0) (#34)
by Jeralyn on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 01:39:20 PM EST

Obama's Mail Fraud (none / 0) (#28)
by john5750 on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 01:31:22 PM EST

I'm getting tired of hearing complaints when Hillary points out Obama's faults, his failure to vote on the issues, his flip-flopping on Iraq, his lack of a record, his inexperience, and his failure to debate before a primary.

And yet, when Obama blatantly lies about Hillary it's OK because he lies with such charm.

Now, I'm glad to see a labor union in Ohio point out the fraud in Obama's mailers. But, I'm sure it's such a cute mailer.

from www.hinessight.com

One of Clinton's key labor supporters
in Ohio says the piece almost amounts to mail fraud.
Hillary Clinton's campaign in Ohio is reacting strongly to a mailer from the Obama campaign that hits her on NAFTA. One of her key labor supporters said the piece almost amounts to "mail fraud."

: Did he read the Mail Fraud statute? (none / 0) (#39)
by Ben Masel on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 02:04:23 PM EST

Did you?
Title 18, chapter 63 Which provision are you suggesting applies? This is, after all, a law blog.

Clinton is leaving WI early (none / 0) (#41)
by Maggie on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 02:31:26 PM EST

From the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton has scaled back her Wisconsin campaign schedule by a full day, and is now planning to leave the state after Monday morning instead of Tuesday morning.
The move suggests the campaign does not think it can overtake rival Barack Obama here. Obama has already campaigned in the state Tuesday night, Wednesday, Friday, and today. He also has single events planned for Sunday (Kaukauna) and Monday (Beloit).
While the two have exchanged hard-hitting TV ads here, Obama began airing ads a week earlier and has spent much more on TV.
Today is Clinton's first day of campaigning in the state, with an event in Kenosha and a state party dinner in Milwaukee, where Obama also will appear. Clinton will campaign Sunday in De Pere, Wausau and Madison, and is expected to do one event in the state Monday morning before leaving.
While recent public polls suggested Obama began the run-up to the Feb. 19 primary here with only a small lead, the Clinton campaign has wrestled with the tradeoffs of spending time and money here versus the Ohio and Texas primaries March 4, which Clinton cannot afford to lose.

http://www.jsonline.com/watch/?watch=1&date=2/16/2008&id=35716

Repeal NAFTA/CAFTA (none / 0) (#43)
by SandyK on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 04:13:04 PM EST

reduce taxes (especially payroll); balance the budget; get tougher on immigration, and you'd gather the independent conservative vote (all of us not in the GOP or Neo-Con fold).

It's r-e-a-l-l-y that simple to bleed the GOP of votes. Immigration will get even concerned Neo-Cons to rethink voting for McCain.

Wishful thinking, but had to state it. Any of the above themes will make undecideds or conservative McInsane protesters crossover. You won't have this opportunity when conservatives rally around their one candidate later.

Hillary's on the right track with the populist message (Lou Dobb's popularity isn't because he's a White male thumbing his nose at corporations, but his populist message of taking back the middle-class). Now deliver on the populist message, and that'll seal the election. Largest voting block IS the middle-class within the early 30s to 59 age group, too.