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Updated Wisconsin by Congressional District

By Ben Masel, Section Diaries
Posted on Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 10:03:46 PM EST
Tags: Wisconsin, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama (all tags)
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Momentum's all Obama. had the set tuned to Fox adult cartoons, good mix of spots for Obama, none for Clinton (or Repubs, Paul should have bought.)

Obama's Iraq spot was an excellent fit for American Dad.

All had a notable flaw. Type only of "Vote Feb. 19". Should scream THIS TUESDAY. For spots on shows targeting the 18-22 demographic, I'd even add "you can register at the polls. bring Photo ID and proof of address."

With no school tomorrow, everyone stuck at home due to weather, these should have been especially high viewership for the youngest eligibles. I'm presuming Obama had tghe monopoly in other Wisconsin markets.

On to the predictions...  

1st (Ryan) narrow Obama, 3-3

2nd (Baldwin) Obama 5-3. I'm hearing a lot of 6-2 locally, but I don't buy it.

3d  (Kind) Obama UPGRADE from 3-3 to 50% chance of 4-2. Reports from the ground in rural Counties, plus the success of Obama's visit to Eau Claire. Congressman Kind's said he'll cast his SD vote with the district winner.

4th: (Moore) Obama likely 3-3, big turnout favors an Obama delegate split, as Clinton's support from public employee Unions is diluted. 20% chance Obama 4-2.

5th (Sensenbrenner) Clinton 3-2, on prochoice Republican womens' crossover NO CHANGE

6th (Petri) Obama, 3-2, I'm becoming confident on this one. UPGRADE

7th (Obey) Obama, Dicey as to whether he makes the 4-2 split. He romped in Duluth, and the Eau Claire and Stevens Point campuses had monster turnout in '06. Eau Claire County straddles the District line. now 70% chance of the 4-2. OBAMA UPGRADE

8th (Kagen) 6 delegates. Tossup. Was lean Clinton OBAMA UPGRADE. Kagen's also said he'll cast his SD with the District's voters.

I'm now calling 50% turnout among 18-25s.

Clinton spent the day well in  Milwaukee, where true face to face may have worked better than staged mega-events. I haven't been watching enough tube to rate her spots.

Statewide, Obama by 6-8% UPGRADE FROM 4-6%

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    Updated Wisconsin by Congressional District | 1 comment (1 topical)

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    Ron Paul to Obama shift (none / 0) (#1)
    by Ben Masel on Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 10:17:46 PM EST
    My rural youth poll...

    Just flipped through the Myspasce pages of a batch of the folks who'd friended my 2006 Senate Campaign and were supporting Ron Paul 2 months ago. Nearly half of those who'd had Ron Paul atop their "top friends" now put Obama ahead, if they've kept Paul at all.

    Updated Wisconsin by Congressional District | 1 comment (1 topical)

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