Wisconsin Primary Results: Live Thread One

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:55:00 PM EST
Tags: Wisconsin 08, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama (all tags)

Share This: Digg!

Update: MSNBC, 9:01pm: Too early to call but Obama has lead in exit polls.

Bump and Update: Polls about to close. CNN is going to announce what they know and then talk about Huckabee. What does that tell you? If the media makes you crazy tonight, here's a new thread to vent about it.

****

Polls close in 45 minutes in Wisconsin. MSNBC results here, CNN results here. Predictions? Thoughts? More below.

The networks are all saying this is a huge deal for Hillary. I disagree. She never expected to win the Feb. contests. She's concentrating on Texas, Ohio and PA. The only question I see is whether momentum from a big win tonight for Obama, should it happen, will affect voters in those three states. Als0, anything can happen in three weeks that could stop or reverse momentum. Anyone who thinks the race is over tonight if Obama wins big is mistaken, in my view.

I'll be updating this post as the results come in. (Big Tent Democrat will either update here or in comments.)

On a lighter note, how fast will the networks call Wisconsin? Take the poll below.

By Big Tent Democrat

The exit polls are predicting Obama 57-43. This would be a big win for Obama because he is predicted to win women 51-49. So the storyline is clear. The Media will dance on Hillary's grave tonight. And the fact is this would be a devastating blow. It will take a comeback now in Texas and Ohio to get her back in the game.

The other issue to watch is the delegate breakdown. Hillary lost Alabama 58-42 but split the delegates. If she keeps it close among the delegates, she will try and spin that as a good result.

< Tonight's Election Coverage: Who is the Biggest H-A? | CNN Projects Obama Wins Wisconsin >

Poll

Votes: 47
Results	\|	Other Polls

Legal

Nothing on this site should be construed as legal advice. TalkLeft does not give legal advice.

TalkLeft is not responsible for and often disagrees with material posted in the comments section. Read at your own risk.

Wisconsin Primary Results: Live Thread One | 128 comments (128 topical)

Readers Must Login or Create an Account to Comment

Love the swiss cheese image (5.00 / 2) (#1)
by coigue on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:26:31 PM EST

LOL

It has an. . .interesting effect on Hillary's head (5.00 / 2) (#2)
by andgarden on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:29:33 PM EST

Where's the can of Pabst? (5.00 / 2) (#3)
by magster on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:30:17 PM EST

: In my belly! n/t (5.00 / 2) (#6)
by spit on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:37:57 PM EST

Did you know (5.00 / 3) (#4)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:32:19 PM EST

that Swiss cheese is made using proprionibacteria...same stuff that gets in your sebacious glands and causes acne.

The holes in the cheese are from the CO2 produced when the bacteria "exhale".

...just saying...

(studying for a medical micro exam).


I knew about the CO2 (5.00 / 1) (#5)
by coigue on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:37:49 PM EST

but not the acne.

Guess I'd better stop rubbing swiss cheese all over my face.

Explains a few things though


: LOL (5.00 / 1) (#31)
by BrandingIron on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:57:32 PM EST

This conversation reminds me of a shopping expedition. My girlfriend kept telling me how she didn't like Swiss, never liked it, blah blah...and what kind of cheese does she end up buying (she doesn't know much about cheeses)?
Jarlsberg.
Bwaaa, I ended up eating more of it than she did, but she still ate it...on principle.

Nah, it oughta be Colby cheddar (5.00 / 1) (#22)
by Cream City on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:49:51 PM EST

-- Wisconsin's pride. We even have a historical landmark sign in Colby on the site of its creation.

That's the "creative class" in Wisconsin for ya -- who can create the best cheddar or the best head on a microbrewski, ain'a.


: But isn't the Packer's cheese hat (none / 0) (#42)
by coigue on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:03:20 PM EST

swiss?

I will be commenting for a while (5.00 / 1) (#9)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:40:50 PM EST

But I put my preview above.

Earlier today I predicted Obama by 10 and if the exit polls are right, I will have underestimated Obama's win by 4 points.

I will be watching the delegate count most particularly.

In terms of the Media, expect grave dancing tonight.

Traditionally, the grave dancing (none / 0) (#12)
by andgarden on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:41:51 PM EST

has been a plus for Hillary. She'll have one last chance to turn it around.


i thought the considered blog wisdom (none / 0) (#19)
by oculus on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:48:46 PM EST

about a week ago was the HRC campaign foolishly didn't care about WI, then started campaigning there, and that, if HRC doesn't lose by a blow-out, result was predictable.


Not losing women (none / 0) (#21)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:49:50 PM EST

That is surprising.


I can't believe she ever really had the (none / 0) (#23)
by oculus on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:51:52 PM EST

women. Most of my female friends in CA voted for Obama.


She has had white women in every state (none / 0) (#28)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:55:11 PM EST

by a large margin.


White women who drink beer and (none / 0) (#46)
by oculus on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:04:18 PM EST

didn't go to college.


Hey (none / 0) (#61)
by Democratic Cat on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:09:49 PM EST

Hey, a lot of wine-swilling, over-educated women in my circle voted for Clinton. Just sayin'


I'm really, really glad to hear that. (none / 0) (#95)
by oculus on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:21:06 PM EST

Whatever are my friends thinking? Oh, I recemeber now: Clinton dynasty, not believable, and AUMF vote. Throw in "change" and its a done deal.


Obviously, (5.00 / 1) (#102)
by Democratic Cat on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:23:47 PM EST

You need to hang out with a different crowd. :-)


: We all have employer health insurance, (none / 0) (#127)
by oculus on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:51:29 PM EST

lots of degrees, and drink wine. I'm the odd woman out.

that's enough (none / 0) (#84)
by coigue on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:16:06 PM EST

I am getting a beer.


It's only about class -- (none / 0) (#123)
by Cream City on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:38:27 PM EST

about education, the main predictor of income and thus economic class. And as I noted here before, Wisconsin is below the national norm in women's education levels and income (and much else).

But beer is not a defining characteristic of economic class here, where everyone drinks beer.:-)


According to the exit polls (none / 0) (#47)
by Cream City on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:04:33 PM EST

and again, they are not as valid and reliable on women and minorities.

We do have a secret ballot, after all.


the dingy (none / 0) (#128)
by Stellaaa on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:58:27 PM EST

new age ones...all over here in Berkeley. All the ones that never sent their sensitive kids to our public schools that were over 50% AA, now are absolving themselves. Good thing I will be in Germany for 3 weeks, at least they had the sense to elect a woman.


interesting (none / 0) (#26)
by A DC Wonk on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:52:45 PM EST

at around noon, Markos predicted a 14-pt spread

He closed with:

Though it ain't over till the votes are cast and counted, so if you are in those two states, GOTV for your favorite candidate. If you are Obama supporters, work to give your guy the bigger delegate lead. If you are Clinton supporters, work hard to stop Obama's momentum and embarrass me.

: He nailed it (none / 0) (#27)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:54:43 PM EST

if the Exit polls are right.

NBC called it at your earlier call (none / 0) (#96)
by Cream City on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:21:07 PM EST

at a 10% margin, 54-44 -- but then changed it within minutes to 54-45. With no precincts reporting yet, so they went too soon before the exit polls were adjusted.


This is interesting (5.00 / 1) (#10)
by Polkan on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:41:29 PM EST

Schneider on CNN:

Experience:
Clinton - 95%
Obama - 5%

Change:
Obama - 70%
Clinton - 20%

I'm not watching TV tonight (5.00 / 1) (#29)
by andgarden on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:55:16 PM EST

not until well after the polls close, and maybe not even then. I don't really need Chris Matthews's "analysis."

My polling place is not closing at 8 here (5.00 / 2) (#30)
by Cream City on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:55:30 PM EST

in Milwaukee -- it's half a block away, and I can see out my window that the street still is packed with cars (no parking allowed there except on election days). Maybe late deciders are latecomers who saw CNN essentially calling it here an hour ago and they're typically contrarian Wisconsinites who got ticked about it and late-decided to do the opposite of what CNN said they already had done. Well, I can hope.:-)

Ou r woman on the spot. Keep us posted. (none / 0) (#56)
by oculus on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:07:30 PM EST

Whose supporters drive SUVs anyhow?


: Big families here -- state's a fourth Catholic (none / 0) (#60)
by Cream City on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:09:01 PM EST

and at least half foolish, thinking SUVs are safer in snow.

The exits are out and (5.00 / 1) (#33)
by andgarden on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:00:57 PM EST

as predicted, Obama wins women.

Strangely (none / 0) (#37)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:02:24 PM EST

No call from NBC.


Wouldn't that mean much closer (none / 0) (#58)
by Cream City on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:08:09 PM EST

than you predict, a 14-point margin?


I've had the sense (5.00 / 1) (#65)
by spit on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:11:11 PM EST

that they have been resisting calling it unless the exits are an utter, 20-30 point blow out, at least until a few precincts come in.

Which is probably wise. Then again, they also want you to keep watching, bear in mind.


I would have thought so (5.00 / 1) (#66)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:11:16 PM EST

makes you think the last wave of exits upset the apple cart somewhat.

Or that 14 point spread is not enough.


: Aha, look back to what I said re daytime (5.00 / 1) (#92)
by Cream City on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:19:33 PM EST

exit polls (a few threads back) -- they have been problematic here before, because working-class voters and parents taking turns at voting don't get to the polls until evening.
Btw, there still are enough cars at my polling place in Milwaukee, up the block, that it hasn't closed.

Women are now (5.00 / 2) (#75)
by rebecca on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:14:14 PM EST

51% for Hillary and 48% for Obama on CNN's page. Maybe that has something to do with it.


: You're right (5.00 / 1) (#82)
by andgarden on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:15:51 PM EST

they're adjusting. I don't think there will be nearly enough movement, though.

: Good catch (5.00 / 1) (#83)
by spit on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:15:53 PM EST

they're bringing in the last wave of data, looks like.

: Heh (5.00 / 1) (#87)
by spit on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:17:12 PM EST

and I just realized I had noticed the age breakdown graph on their front WI results page change a few minutes ago too, but had assumed I misread the first time.

They must all have good health insurance. (none / 0) (#38)
by Teresa on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:02:42 PM EST

Russert: Hillary Keeps Only Women Over 50 (5.00 / 2) (#51)
by Jeralyn on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:05:53 PM EST

omg, he called them "aging white women." Says it's the only group she maintains.

What about Hispanic women? There aren't many in Wisconsin.

Heads up commenters: Anyone who calls women over 50 "geriatric" or aged or aging will have their comment deleted. You can call them "middle aged women and older" or something similar.

Yeah. Jeralyn for blogger of the (5.00 / 1) (#63)
by oculus on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:10:51 PM EST

year.


I'd just note (5.00 / 1) (#74)
by Steve M on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:14:03 PM EST

that all the women under 50 I know are "aging" as well.


how about (none / 0) (#86)
by andreww on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:16:54 PM EST

generation McCain?


: or, how about (none / 0) (#119)
by A DC Wonk on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:34:47 PM EST

"AARP eligible" :)

I'll accept (none / 0) (#120)
by Cream City on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:35:31 PM EST

still crazy after all these years.

(And still hot, hot, hot, of course -- just ask my spouse. As soon as he wakes up in his recliner.)


"I'll fight to keep you from being (5.00 / 1) (#64)
by magster on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:11:08 PM EST

deceived by eloquent calls for change."

Can someone just wrap up this nomination so we can focus on kicking McCain's a^%?

Here it comes, Michelle, from McCain (5.00 / 1) (#67)
by Cream City on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:11:36 PM EST

who makes the point that he is proud of this country. And as for Barack Obama, McCain says some change is good -- but some change is coming at our great peril, so what we need is experience. "Will we risk the confused leadership of a young candidate who once suggested bombing Pakistan," etc. . . .

You just heard general-election talking points, people.

Yeah (none / 0) (#77)
by Steve M on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:14:37 PM EST

he is going full-bore Islamofascist rhetoric here.


But, Huffington Post points (none / 0) (#80)
by oculus on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:15:24 PM EST

out that, in fact, the Bush admin. seems to have done exactly what Obama suggested: go into Pakistan and take out terrorist leaders w/o advance permission by Pakistani government.


He' lucky that he gets to go before (none / 0) (#81)
by Teresa on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:15:34 PM EST

Obama this time. The contrast was terrible last time.

I read that HC is using a teleprompter tonight and that she doesn't normally. Wonder why?


: Maybe (none / 0) (#100)
by andreww on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:22:50 PM EST

she realized that it's okay to give a good speech.

Pakistan is where (none / 0) (#97)
by coigue on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:21:46 PM EST

the guys that attacked us probably are.

Just saying McCain.


"Bomb, bomb, bomb (none / 0) (#98)
by AF on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:21:52 PM EST

bomb bomb Iran." "The Issue Of Economics Is Not Something I've Understood As Well As I Should." McCain is Slim Pickens in Dr. Strangelove. Joe Scarborough and Pat Buchanan were laughing a couple weeks ago how his campaign slogan should be "More war, less jobs."

Either Hillary or Barack will take him down.


Believe me (5.00 / 2) (#110)
by Steve M on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:27:49 PM EST

I really wish I could be confident that such things make a person unelectable.


People are sick of it (none / 0) (#114)
by AF on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:29:49 PM EST

As long as there isn't a big attack between now and the election, I'm very much looking forward to that fight.


But that's just it, the GOP can make us (none / 0) (#117)
by Cream City on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:33:35 PM EST

have a big attack or an orange alert anytime. Watch for it.


It would have to be a real attack (none / 0) (#122)
by AF on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:36:53 PM EST

of a fairly large scale. Nobody believes a word the Bush administration says, so threats and orange alerts are out. Not being a 9/11 truther, I think this one's out the Bushies' hands.


All I know (none / 0) (#124)
by Steve M on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:40:28 PM EST

is that there are millions upon millions upon millions of Americans who simply do not look at elections in the same way that I do.


: Sure (none / 0) (#125)
by AF on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:42:03 PM EST

But the 2006 elections and consistent polling on Bush and the war back me up on this.

Clinton won women 51-48 (5.00 / 1) (#85)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:16:54 PM EST

says CNN.

Lost men 2-1.

Spread will still be 13 or so.

"still" 13? (none / 0) (#104)
by demschmem on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:25:09 PM EST

when did you say 13


When? (none / 0) (#107)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:26:27 PM EST

do you read posts before commenting?


: yeah, did i miss the post where you said 13? (none / 0) (#126)
by demschmem on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:47:33 PM EST

msnbc calls it for Obama (5.00 / 1) (#91)
by andreww on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:19:01 PM EST

: CNN also calls for Obama... (none / 0) (#106)
by jor on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:26:13 PM EST

... with 2% reporting. Oh well I was off by 20 minutes.

Hmm, interesting. On the Exit Polling. (5.00 / 1) (#93)
by BrandingIron on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:19:55 PM EST

Clinton voters have more faith that Clinton can win in November than Obama voters think Obama can. 94% to 85%.

i can save you all the trouble (5.00 / 2) (#94)
by Turkana on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:20:58 PM EST

of clicking on daily kos. there will be either a front page or rec list diary about wisconsin not being relevant...

When CNN puts its exits up in 20 minutes (none / 0) (#7)
by andgarden on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:39:41 PM EST

they should be here.

Which one do you want? (none / 0) (#11)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:41:33 PM EST

the question now is are they right. We already know what they say.


I expect them to be right (none / 0) (#14)
by andgarden on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:42:57 PM EST

I'm not a polling conspiracy theorist, and Mitofsky is good at his job.


At least, his company is. . . (none / 0) (#15)
by andgarden on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:43:58 PM EST

(He's a bit cold now)


They have been not so good (none / 0) (#16)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:44:39 PM EST

this primary season.


Then let's go with SUSA (none / 0) (#18)
by andgarden on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:48:39 PM EST

who said yesterday that Obama was much stronger with Dems in WI.


And the exits bore that out (5.00 / 1) (#54)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:06:44 PM EST

SUSA really is the best pollster now.

Amazing. Who would thunk it that their automated polling system would become the gold standard.


: They seem to get every race (5.00 / 1) (#62)
by andgarden on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:10:08 PM EST

that I follow closely. I've sworn by them since 2006.
Remember when they showed Webb and Ciro with big mo at the last minute?

Not the point; they make them "right" (none / 0) (#25)
by Cream City on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:52:26 PM EST

with adjustments starting with the first reality reports. Exit polls are based on models from pre-election polls, or even past election results, in terms of who will vote. Then as returns come in, they're readjusted for realities of who did vote.

Have some fun and copy and paste 'em now, then see how they change through the night.


what happened (none / 0) (#8)
by americanincanada on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:40:40 PM EST

to the CBS exit polls? Where did they go?

My prediction (none / 0) (#13)
by AF on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:42:36 PM EST

Too close to call till 10:30. Obama wins by 6. I really don't see why today's early exit polls are supposed to be so much better than Super Tuesday's.

: Exactly (none / 0) (#70)
by Dan the Man on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:12:07 PM EST

My prediction is a 4-6 point victory for Obama, but that's just because I'm conservative. Risk takers might bet it's more like the disaster of New Jersey/Massachusetts exit polling which were still bigger than 14 points.

Hmm (none / 0) (#17)
by Steve M on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:46:51 PM EST

I expect Obama to win by around 5 points.

I predict a 9:01 call (none / 0) (#20)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:49:06 PM EST

by NBC. My understanding is CNN does not call until there are some results from key precincts.

Interesting (none / 0) (#24)
by americanincanada on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:52:16 PM EST

that CBS pulled their exit poll data.

Some of you brave souls (none / 0) (#32)
by NJDem on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:00:15 PM EST

will have to report for me--for now, I'm watching American Idol :)

CNN won't call Dem race (none / 0) (#34)
by Cream City on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:02:03 PM EST

Obama ahead, but not enough to call it. Wise.

have the exits been right (none / 0) (#35)
by andreww on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:02:16 PM EST

this entire election? But, if they are correct in terms of the income and independent info it should be a win for Obama.

Plus, I think those Wisconsonians like their neighbors to the south. I'm telling you man, midwesterners stick together - I think OH is going to be really interesting. Ultimately I think that's what tonight means - the momentum will, I believe, carry into TX and OH. Won't seal the deal for Obama or turn it around for clinton, but it will matter.

Not partiuclarly accurate (none / 0) (#40)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:03:08 PM EST

But still interesting that no call.


As you may know (none / 0) (#52)
by andreww on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:06:14 PM EST

I'm a fan of conspiracy theories. So, maybe the media is saying they think it will be close - only to be "surprised" by the margin with which Obama wins - making it all the more dramatic.


: doubt it (none / 0) (#57)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:07:58 PM EST

I think 14 point spread is not enough for a call any more.
I thought it was.

here's something interesting (none / 0) (#36)
by andgarden on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:02:19 PM EST

Vote by Education
Clinton
Obama
Uninstructed
No College Education
(28%)
53%
44%
3%
College Educated
(72%)
39%
59%
1%

Still 14 points (none / 0) (#45)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:04:11 PM EST

But it goes to my point about projecting out to Ohio.

Wisconsin is different.


: Yup, (none / 0) (#53)
by andgarden on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:06:39 PM EST

There's still a beer track/wine track division.

Wild Swing just now (none / 0) (#88)
by andgarden on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:17:17 PM EST

Vote by Education
Clinton
Obama
Uninstructed
No College Degree
(58%)
45%
54%
1%
College Graduate
(42%)
39%
58%
2%

Something's funky with the numbers.


msnbc not calling either (none / 0) (#39)
by Jeralyn on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:02:54 PM EST

saying too early, not too close.

Obama wins exit polls.

wow (none / 0) (#48)
by americanincanada on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:04:51 PM EST

CNN said Obama has a slight lead but that exit data isn't enough for them to call it. They are waiting for results.


: Are you sure they said "slight"? I (none / 0) (#59)
by Teresa on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:08:26 PM EST

didn't hear that.

Fox calls WI for McCain (none / 0) (#41)
by RalphB on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:03:09 PM EST

Democrats too close to call.

Karl Rove is interesting.

Hmmm... (none / 0) (#43)
by americanincanada on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:03:43 PM EST

CNN won't project. Obama has a slight lead but they won't call it. No final exit numbers yet either.

More (none / 0) (#44)
by andgarden on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:03:55 PM EST

Vote by Party ID
Clinton
Obama
Uninstructed
Democrat
(64%)
49%
50%
1%
Republican
(9%)
N/A
N/A
N/A
Independent
(27%)
34%
63%
2%

: Still 14% (5.00 / 1) (#49)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:04:56 PM EST

But a GOOD Dem result for Obama.

: If he's got Dem's & women, it really is over. (5.00 / 1) (#50)
by Teresa on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:05:49 PM EST

I've been trying to prepare my poor mother.

why no numbers yet? (none / 0) (#55)
by NJDem on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:07:13 PM EST

and how can the exit polls be done, haven't some people just voted? How can they count so soon?

: They do a sampling (none / 0) (#68)
by eleanora on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:11:51 PM EST

of exiting voters and predict based on that. They won't be done counting for hours.

: Exit polls are (none / 0) (#116)
by Cream City on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:31:43 PM EST

(1) allocating voters demographically based on past elections and on pre-election polls of likely voters this year, and
(2) asking those voter groups questions about their issues.
Then, when real returns start coming in, exit polls are changed to reflect the realities today, the actual numbers of demographic groups (as best they can continue to figure, since we don't check off our demographics on our ballots).
So they become more and more educated guesswork as the night goes along, but they're still guesswork (because we also still have secret ballots, at least in elections, not in many caucuses).

McCain going after empty change and (none / 0) (#69)
by Teresa on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:12:00 PM EST

playing up the "proud" of our country. Michelle stepped in that one. I know she didn't mean it that way but that's frontrunner life for you.

Now he's playing up experience. I don't think Obama will beat him. Now Pakistan. Ouch.

We bombed Pakistan today and killed (5.00 / 2) (#73)
by magster on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:13:46 PM EST

an al Qaeda leader didn't we? Maybe he should read the newspaper now that Bush is employing the Obama doctrine.


This gives Hillary a last chance (5.00 / 1) (#76)
by andgarden on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:14:19 PM EST

"Are you going to let the Republicans pick your nominee?"


: That's what I'm wondering. McCain is free (5.00 / 1) (#90)
by Teresa on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:18:51 PM EST

now to attack Obama and the super D's will get a preview of what it will be. Not that it will matter if Obama keeps winning but if she starts winning again, it may get them thinking anyway.

O'Reilly (none / 0) (#103)
by IndependantThinker on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:24:01 PM EST

said they did the research and Michelle's 'proud' statement was part of a written speech she's made twice already, not an off the cuff remark. How can she argue about 'what she meant'.


what is this statement all about (none / 0) (#108)
by andreww on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:26:42 PM EST

i missed it. what happened?


Oh, noooo. This just gets worse and worse (none / 0) (#111)
by Cream City on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:28:31 PM EST

Is she copying Mrs. Deval Patrick?


Gosh (none / 0) (#113)
by Steve M on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:29:20 PM EST

Maybe so, but that's the last guy whose research I'd trust. Guess it will be interesting.


can someone (none / 0) (#115)
by andreww on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:30:58 PM EST

please bring me in the loop?


Michelle said yesterday (and maybe other (none / 0) (#118)
by Teresa on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:34:20 PM EST

times?) that "for the first time in my adult life, I am really proud to be an American". It's being made into a big deal.


Let me explain something to you (5.00 / 1) (#136)
by Steve M on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 10:31:28 PM EST

When it comes to playing "gotcha" on issues of patriotism and the like, the GOP does not respect the "What Obama Really Meant" rules. So let's hope we have a lot fewer gaffes of this sort.
It's embarrassingly egotistical to suggest that she wasn't proud of America when Bill Clinton was elected, or that she wouldn't be proud of America if Hillary Clinton were the nominee, but that the only way she can really be proud of America is to have her husband nominated. Sheesh.

Some polling places are still open (none / 0) (#71)
by americanincanada on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:12:24 PM EST

I don't think any of the networks are putting total confidence in those polls or they would call it.

On anouther note, McCain is savaging Obama, and well, in his speech.

McCain (none / 0) (#72)
by andreww on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:13:40 PM EST

ha seriously lost it.

: Nope, he laid out the talking points (none / 0) (#109)
by Cream City on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:27:04 PM EST

against the Obamas, as he hit both. And those talking points will work; it was well-crafted.

spending my money (none / 0) (#79)
by andreww on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:15:15 PM EST

on things it shouldn't - un, like killing arab men, women and children in a country that didn't attack us and wasn't a danger to us.

Rural Dane County Obama 59% (none / 0) (#101)
by Ben Masel on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:23:03 PM EST

Just outside Madison, not burbs, but townships,

new thread Obama wins (none / 0) (#105)
by Jeralyn on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:26:03 PM EST

new thread here

jeralyn (none / 0) (#121)
by andreww on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:35:54 PM EST

did i have a comment deleted?

I just said Obama is one win away - or maybe user error? :)

Middleton, Feingold's residence (none / 0) (#129)
by Ben Masel on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 09:03:44 PM EST

Obama 3600, Clinton 1500.

Madison suburb.

Did Feingold endorse either candidate? (none / 0) (#130)
by oculus on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 09:19:56 PM EST

What happened in the congressional district where you predicted HRC win partly based on Republican women voting for her?


: Obama won the Sensenbrenner district. (none / 0) (#138)
by Ben Masel on Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 03:47:59 PM EST

Still no Feingold endorsement.

♦	9:01 pm	44%
♦	9:15 pm	23%
♦	9:30 pm	23%
♦	10 pm or later	8%