"Key States in the 2008 Presidential Election." By William Arnone

This is an update on the "Key States in the 2008 Presidential Election" analysis I circulated last July. These are states in which the Democratic Presidential ticket needs to compete effectively in November in order to have a good chance of being elected. The Democratic Presidential ticket must win one or more of these key states, in addition to the 20 states with 252 electoral votes carried by the Democratic Presidential ticket in 2004.

Here's an update on the ten key states: Arkansas; Colorado; Florida; Iowa; Missouri; Nevada; New Mexico; North Carolina; Ohio; and Virginia.

• Arkansas (6 electoral votes): Hillary Clinton won with 70% of the vote (202,010) to Barack Obama's 27% (77,970) in this state's February 5th open primary. Since Independents were able to vote, it may be viewed as an especially good indicator of the Democratic candidates' potential appeal in November. Arkansas has voted for the winners of the last nine Presidential elections. Bill Clinton and Al Gore carried the state by 17% in 1996 and by 18% in 1992. Since 1964, the only other Presidential election in which the Democratic ticket carried the state was 1976, when Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale won with a huge margin of 30%.

• Colorado (9 electoral votes): Obama won with 67% of the vote (79,344) to Clinton's 32% (38,587) in this state's February 5th closed caucuses. The Republican Presidential ticket carried Colorado by 5% in 2004. This was a lower margin than the 2000 election, in which the Republican ticket carried the state by almost 9%. The Republican ticket carried the state by 1% in 1996. Bill Clinton and Al Gore carried the state by 4% in 1992. Colorado has voted Democratic in Presidential elections only three times since Franklin Roosevelt’s candidacies: Clinton-Gore in ’92; Johnson-Humphrey in ’64; and Truman-Barkley in ’48.

• Florida (27 electoral votes): Clinton won 50% of the vote (865,099) to Obama's 33% (571,333) in this state's January 29th closed nonbinding primary. The Republican Presidential ticket carried Florida by 5% in 2004. This was a higher margin than the 2000 election, in which the Republican ticket carried the state by less than 1% (537 votes) in a highly controversial election. Overall, the Republican ticket carried 58 of the state’s 67 counties in 2004. Bill Clinton and Al Gore carried the state by 6% in 1996. The Republican ticket carried the state by 2% in 1992 and by 22% in 1988. Florida has voted for the Democratic Presidential ticket only three times since 1964: Johnson-Humphrey with 51% in 1964; Carter-Mondale with 52% in 1976; and Clinton-Gore with 48% in 1996. Republicans have not won the White House without winning Florida since 1924.

• Iowa (7 electoral votes): Obama won 38% of the vote to Clinton's 29% in this state's January 3rd open proportional caucuses on. (The Iowa Democratic Party has not released the actual vote count.) The Republican Presidential ticket carried Iowa by 1% in 2004. This was the first time the Republican ticket carried the state since 1984. The Democratic ticket carried the state by .032 percentage points in 2000. Bill Clinton and Al Gore carried the state by 10% in 1996 and by 6% in 1992. The Democratic ticket carried the state by 10% in 1988, which represented the largest Democratic margin since 1964, when the Johnson-Humphrey ticket carried Iowa with a margin of 24%.

• Missouri (11 electoral votes): Obama won 49% of the vote (405,284) to Clinton's 48% (395,287) in this state's February 5th open primary. Since Independents were able to vote, it may be viewed as an especially good indicator of the Democratic candidates' potential appeal in November. The Republican Presidential ticket carried Missouri by 7% in 2004. This was a higher margin than the 2000 election, in which the Republican ticket carried the state by 3%. Bill Clinton and Al Gore carried this state in 1996 by 6% and in 1992 by 10%. With one exception (1952), Missouri has voted with the winner of every Presidential election since 1900. No other state has this record of accuracy in Presidential elections.

• Nevada (5 electoral votes): Clinton won 51% of the vote (approximately 59,000) to Obama's 45% (approximately 52,000) in this state's January 19th closed proportional caucuses. The Republican Presidential ticket carried Nevada by 3% in 2004. This was a lower margin than the 2000 election in which the Republican ticket carried the state by 4%. Bill Clinton and Al Gore carried the state by 1% in 1996 and by 3% in 1992. Since 1964, Nevada has voted for the Republican Presidential ticket, except for Clinton-Gore in 1992 and 1996.

• New Mexico (5 electoral votes): Clinton won 49% of the vote (68,084) to Obama's 48% (67,010) in this state's February 5th closed primary. New Mexico has had the two closest most recent Presidential elections. In 2004, the Republican Presidential ticket carried the state by approximately 6,800 votes (less than 1%). In 2000, the Democratic Presidential ticket carried the state by 365 votes (.006 percentage points). Bill Clinton and Al Gore carried the state by almost 8% in 1996 and by 9% in 1992. The Republican ticket carried the state by 5% in 1988, which had been the sixth consecutive Presidential election in which the Republican ticket carried New Mexico.

• Virginia (13 electoral votes): Obama won 64% of the vote (620,919) to Clinton's 35% (344,477) in this state's February 12th open primary. Since Independents were able to vote, it may be viewed as an especially good indicator of the Democratic candidates' potential appeal in November. The Republican Presidential ticket carried Virginia by 9% in 2004. This was a slightly higher margin than the 2000 election in which the Republican ticket carried the state by 8%. The Republican ticket carried the state by 2% in 1996 and by 4% in 1992. Since 1964, the Democratic ticket has not carried the state, but the margins have often been close.

Of the ten key states, two have yet to hold their primaries. They are:

• Ohio (20 electoral votes): This state's open Democratic Presidential primary will be held on March 4th. The Republican Presidential ticket carried Ohio by 2% in 2004. This was a slightly lower margin than the 2000 election in which the Republican ticket carried the state by less than 4%. Bill Clinton and Al Gore carried the state by 6% in 1996 and by 2% in 1992. No Republican has ever been elected President without carrying Ohio.

• North Carolina (15 electoral votes): This state's Democratic Presidential primary will be held on May 6th. The Republican Presidential ticket carried North Carolina by 12% in 2004. This was a slightly lower margin than the 2000 election in which the Republican ticket carried the state by 13%. The Republican ticket carried the state by 5% in 1996 and by less than 1% in 1992. Since 1964, the Democratic Presidential ticket has carried this state only once – Carter-Mondale by 11% in 1976.

The winner of the popular vote in the Democratic primary or caucus in each of these key states will have a higher likelihood of carrying that state in November. This is a critical consideration in determining who is likely to be the Party's most successful Presidential candidate in the general election.

Thus far, Hillary Clinton has won four of these key states -- Arkansas (decisively), Florida (decisively, but in a primary that was not recognized by the Democratic National Committee for the purpose of selecting delegates to the Party's convention), Nevada (solidly), New Mexico (slightly) -- and Barack Obama has won four -- Colorado (decisively), Iowa (solidly), Missouri (slightly), and Virginia (decisively). Of these states, Clinton's four have a total of 43 electoral votes, while Obama's four have a total of 40 electoral votes. Together with all of the 20 states that went Democratic in the 2004 Presidential election, both Clinton's and Obama's key states would have enough electoral votes to give the Democratic Presidential ticket victory in November.

This analysis does not assess, however, the possibility that the Republican Presidential ticket, if headed by John McCain, might win one or more of the 20 states that went Democratic in 2004.

Thanks to Mr. Arnone for letting us reprint this. Now, what do you all think?