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Obama And Hillary's Strengths On Super Tuesday

Chris Bowers has an updated post on the delegate count and as I read it Chris shows Clinton with maybe a 2 delegate advanatage on Super Tuesday.

Where did Obama have a big delegate edges? Alaska (+5), Colorado (+17), Georgia (+17), Idaho (+12), Illinois (+43), Kansas (+14), Minnesota (+24) and Utah (+5).

Where did Clinton have a big delegate edge? Arizona (+6), Arkansas (+14), California (+39), Massachusetts (+17), New Jersey (+14), New York (+42), Oklahoma (+10) and Tennessee (+15). These were Clinton's 8 wins.

The close divides came in Alabama (Obama +2), Delaware (Obama +3), New Mexico, (even) Missouri (even), North Dakota (Obama +3). A total of plus 8 for Obama. Obama may have won all 6 of these, pending a counting of the provisional votes in New Mexico.

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    Obama wins large in small and medium states (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by andrewwm on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 02:16:19 PM EST
    Clinton wins moderately in large states is about the takeaway.

    Just fyi, which you probably know, Bowers is predicting Obama to win the ST delegate count (I know your own counting is different). The final delegate totals won't be finished for a couple of days.

    me. His counting is.

    Parent
    If you don't mind me asking (none / 0) (#6)
    by andrewwm on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 02:36:58 PM EST
    Which delegates are you predicting Clinton will get that Bowers is getting wrong?

    Parent
    I am not predicting anything (none / 0) (#10)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 02:42:15 PM EST
    I am going with the delegates he has counted.

    Parent
    I'm confused then? (none / 0) (#15)
    by andrewwm on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 02:44:42 PM EST
    His official count has Obama up by 13 doesn't he? I guess what I'm saying is, his count has Obama up by 13, and he's predicting Obama to finish Super Tuesday up by about 10 - I'm just curious where you're getting the swing from toward Clinton, that's all.

    Parent
    His count incoludes (none / 0) (#17)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 02:46:05 PM EST
    South Carolina Iowa and Nevada which went for Obama by a total of 15 delegates.

    Parent
    I see (none / 0) (#19)
    by andrewwm on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 02:46:58 PM EST
    Never mind...saw that Nevada etc. were included. Mea culpa!

    Parent
    Small states (none / 0) (#47)
    by zyx on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 03:40:17 PM EST
    make me laugh, especially when I look at Alaska.  At the Washington Post site it shows something like FOUR HUNDRED Dem voters in Alaska.  Yeah, most voted for Obama.  And that means--not much.

    Idaho, barely means more.  I live near Idaho.  There are a few yuppie Dems in a sea of redneck Republicans in Idaho.  Whoopee.

    Parent

    Those aren't voters (none / 0) (#52)
    by Steve M on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 05:12:46 PM EST
    They are state-level delegates.  I don't understand how people can believe that only 400 Democrats showed up to caucus in the entire state of Alaska.

    Parent
    It would (5.00 / 1) (#3)
    by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 02:27:49 PM EST
    be quite interesting if Obama arrives at the convention with more elected delegates, but fails to win nomination.

    But Obama is far behind in the popular (1.00 / 1) (#7)
    by MarkL on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 02:37:11 PM EST
    vote if you count Florida. If he wins the nomination with less of the popular vote, will that also be the end of the Democratic party? Enough with the silly drama, please.

    Parent
    He's not really that far behind (5.00 / 1) (#11)
    by andrewwm on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 02:42:17 PM EST
    Every state thats voted:

    Hillary: 8.8 million (Discounting Mich/Fla, lowered to 7.565 million)
    Obama: 8.1 million (Discounting Mich/Fla, lowered to 7.56 million)

    Florida was only a margin of about 300,000 or so, which won't be that much in the grand scheme of things.

    Parent

    Well, (none / 0) (#21)
    by IndependantThinker on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 02:47:10 PM EST
    She would not be far behind in the elected delegate count. Why is it that everything has to be spun in Obama's favor. Give me a break.

    Parent
    What's there to spin? (none / 0) (#25)
    by andrewwm on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 02:51:43 PM EST
    It's just numbers man. They're incredibly close in total nationwide votes. Everything that happens from here on out is going to be more decisive than what's already happened since it is, by almost any way you define it, a tie.

    Parent
    Moreover (none / 0) (#50)
    by andreww on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 04:25:52 PM EST
    If florida and/or Michigan are counted in any way there will be serious issues.  There are a couple ways there could be serious issues at the convention.

    1. One candidate wins more elected delegates but doesn't have enough super delegates.  I believe this is another reason why Obama's strategy last night was good.  A super-delegate from any of the small states like AK, UT, ID, etc. are going to have a very difficult time voting for Clinton.  

    2. If neither candidate has enough delegates without FL or MI.  This I fear would fall in Hillary's favor and cause major problems.

    If Obama goes on to win 8 or 9 more states and then is even only close in TX, PA, and OH Clinton will have a hard time convincing anyone that those delegates should be close to evenly split.

    I already don't think the Obama campaign has done enough to counter Clinton's request to supporters that the delegates from those state be seated.

    Maybe Edwards can still be King/Queen maker with his delegates?  Or, maybe Gore will only endorse in one of these situations?  Who knows, but I think we are in for the loooong looooong haul.

    Parent

    It could strengthen the party if (none / 0) (#8)
    by Cream City on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 02:38:08 PM EST
    it once again reforms the primary/caucus season mess we're seeing this year.

    I take a longer view, I remember the messes of the '68 and '72 campaigns and conventions that caused some of the reforms that are proving problematic now -- but also meant real representation for AAs and others kept out under previous rules.

    We learn, we live on, we learn some more.  We're Dems.  We always have embraced "change" better -- at least eventually, if sometimes more suddenly because we see it's needed.  A lot are seeing that now.

    No pain, no gain.  That's what "change" really means -- and why it is the most-feared thing there is.

    Parent

    They need to make a deal... (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by mike in dc on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 02:40:52 PM EST
    ...if this thing isn't wrapped up by mid-June.

    Normally the nominee's campaign team micro-manages everything taking place at the convention.  If there's two "presumptive" nominees, that's a recipe for catastrophe.  It'll make the party look divided, divisive, disorganized and downright unprepared to take the reins of power.  It might make for "fascinating theater", but it could also spell disaster in November.

    So, I'm starting to lean towards the idea of having the uncommitted superdelegates throw their support en masse to whomever is ahead in the pledged delegate count by the end of the primaries.  If it's Clinton, she's our nominee and I will support her and her running mate, Barack Obama.  If it's Obama, he's our nominee and I will support him and his running mate, Hillary Clinton.

    this notion of having televised floor fights over seating the Florida and Michigan delegates, and over whether or not to allow superdelegate totals to count is madness.  Memo to both campaigns: if you don't have the undisputed lead in pledged delegates by mid-June, concede or cut a deal.

    No. It isn't.... (3.66 / 3) (#22)
    by oldpro on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 02:47:54 PM EST

    You don't imagine that a person who is black and has miraculously won a seat in the US Senate decides after one year to run for POTUS just out of the blue, do you?  Oh, and raise over $100M?!?

    Pretend it's a movie.  You would say..."Well, THAT could never happen!"

    Then the movie spells it out for you...how it actually DID happen...but not in the way it appears.

    Obama was drafted.  Talked into it.

    By whom?

    Guess.  Think.  Who are 'the big Dem losers in DC Dem establishment politics who are surfacing, one by one, to advance this candidacy?  Daschle.  Kerry.  Kennedy.  Add the MSM.

    Is there light at the end of that tunnel now?

    The anti-Clinton Dem establishment didn't want Edwards and didn't think he could win...to get rid of the Clintons...and beat Hillary...they needed someone spectacular...someone they could package and sell and who would owe them everything if he won.  (Sound familiar at all?  This worked for Rove with young Bush).

    These people, cynically, have nothing to lose if it doesn't work...and everything to gain if it does.

    Class warfare in the Democratic Party.  Just great.

    Tech oops....? (none / 0) (#26)
    by oldpro on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 02:54:48 PM EST
    Intended to respond to Jgr's post...sigh...more coffee...

    Parent
    Give me a break (none / 0) (#27)
    by andrewwm on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 02:55:53 PM EST
    Kerry and Kennedy didn't endorse until January (and say what you will about their effect, at least you have to concede the date is true!). They didn't draft anyone.

    Clinton lined up over 150 superdelegates before Iowa - there is no way you can say that DC Dem establishment didn't line up behind her before Iowa.

    Why are you concocting conspiracy theories when prosaic explanations will do?

    Parent

    Look behind the curtain. (none / 0) (#29)
    by oldpro on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 03:02:09 PM EST
    In politics...always.

    In theatre....never.

    Believe whatever you wish.  

    He was drafted.

    Parent

    Why should I believe you? (none / 0) (#32)
    by andrewwm on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 03:05:38 PM EST
    There is absolutely zero (as in none, nada) evidence that he was drafted by some secret cabal of anti-Hillary democratic insiders that were hoping to 'own' a candidate.

    Parent
    Did you read that Axelrod profile (none / 0) (#35)
    by oculus on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 03:08:12 PM EST
    referenced in a TalkLeft thread w/i the last month?  The interview was old.  

    Parent
    No (none / 0) (#38)
    by andrewwm on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 03:12:18 PM EST
    Do you have the link? I'd be curious to see it.

    Parent
    Here's the one on (none / 0) (#46)
    by oculus on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 03:38:30 PM EST
    Axelrod:  NYT PROFILE

    There was also an article awhile ago about Obama seeking Clinton's advice when he was a newbie in the U.S. Senta and then doing the same re Teddy Kennedy.

    Parent

    you are not looking behind the curtain (none / 0) (#43)
    by Tano on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 03:30:28 PM EST
    you are fanatsizing about what may lie behind the curtain.

    Parent
    and then they stood on the grassy knoll and...oh (none / 0) (#28)
    by georgeg1011 on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 03:01:31 PM EST
    never mind...conspiracy theories are amusing...so HRC is not part of the political establishment?  If she is not the establishment candidate, then who is?

    Evidence of desperation on the part of Billary supporters whom see the nomination slipping thorough their fingers...by the time it is all said and done this month:

    Obama sweeps the Washington, Nebraska, Louisiana, DC, Virgina, Maryland.  the true test will come in a month.  If he can finish her off on March 4th with Texas and Ohio, she is DIW...but if not, it will be like last night...and then it will go to the convention...

    Parent

    Obama is the establishment's (none / 0) (#36)
    by oldpro on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 03:09:03 PM EST
    candidate.

    BTD said it clearly.

    The establishment candidate is the one who the establishment supports.

    Not a difficult concept.

    I only point out that is now public with the supposedly 'late-breaking' tho timely endorsements of Kennedy and Kerry.  Turns out they may have waited too long to have the desired impact.

    Parent

    OK just because someone says some thing (none / 0) (#48)
    by georgeg1011 on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 03:50:38 PM EST
    clearly does not mean there is any truth to it...see  the weapons of mass destruction argument.  There has to be a basis in fact for the statement to be taken at it's value.  For someone that has taken Millions and Millions of dollars from lobbyist and special interests, she is DEFINITELY part of the political establishment.  The only people you are convincing are yourself. Or others that aren't bright enough to comprehend the spin.  Come up with something better than that.  

    Parent
    Oh Please (2.00 / 1) (#20)
    by BDB on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 02:47:09 PM EST
    The Clinton machine has never been as powerful as the D.C. establishment machine, which is why the 1990s were so brutal, so many of the Dems in D.C. aided and abetted the Republicans against those horrible outsiders Bill and Hillary Clinton.

    And Obama is the candidate of the D.C. establishment machine. Ted Kennedy, David Broder, and John Kerry aren't outsiders, last time I looked.

    And while I do credit Obama with bringing more voters to the table, Hillary is also doing this.  In fact, Obama probably lost California because the hispanic vote was 29%.  That's huge and unprecedented in a democratic primary.  Via pollster, here are the past latino vote percentages:

    2006 Dem gubernatorial primary - 12% Latino, 8% black (LAT)
    2004 Dem presidential primary - 16% Latino, 8% black (via CNN)
    2000 Dem presidential primary - 17% Latino, 11% black (via CNN)
    1998 Dem gubernatorial primary - 12% Latino, 14% black (LAT)

    Her ability to turn out the latino vote here is THE story in California as far as I'm concerned.  Many have tried, but she's the first to be able to do it at this level.  

    who's turning out the vote (none / 0) (#54)
    by g8grl on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:15:12 PM EST
    I know Obama keeps taking credit for bringing out the moderate Republican and Indepedent votes but in fact, those voters have finally come to understand how repugnant the current administration is.

    Parent
    Good post (1.00 / 1) (#23)
    by cannondaddy on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 02:48:08 PM EST
    thanks for the spin free info.

    From No Quarter (1.00 / 1) (#40)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 03:18:06 PM EST
    In July of `04, Barack Obama, "I'm not privy to Senate intelligence reports. What would I have done? I don't know," in terms of how you would have voted on the war.

    And then this: "There's not much of a difference between my position on Iraq and George Bush's position at this stage." That was July of `04.

    And this: "I think" there's "some room for disagreement in that initial decision to vote for authorization of the war." It doesn't seem that you are firmly wedded against the war, and that you left some wiggle room that, if you had been in the Senate, you may have voted for it. ("Meet the Press," 2004, via MyDD, Nov. 11, 2007)

    Yep, Hillary certainly speaks out of both sides of her mouth...just like Barack does.

    What do you mean by "such a manner"? (none / 0) (#12)
    by zyx on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 02:42:24 PM EST
    I'm going to re-subscribe to the Columbia Journalism Review.  The media has been syrupy-sweet to Obama and brutal to Clinton.  

    I'd really like to see the game played on a level field.  Yourself?

    i'm missing something? (none / 0) (#13)
    by Jgarza on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 02:42:44 PM EST
    where do you see a 2 delegate advantage for Hillary, i see 13 for Obama, is there a place where he counts only?

    His total include (none / 0) (#14)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 02:44:18 PM EST
    a 13 point advantage from South Carolina, a 1 delegate advantage in Iowa and a 1 point advantage in Nevada.

    Actually the differennce is 4 delegates in favor of Clinton on Super Tuesday.

    Parent

    And that is conceding a 2 delegate swing in NM (none / 0) (#16)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 02:44:56 PM EST
    which could make it a 6 delegate advantage for Clinton.

    Parent
    Scratch that (none / 0) (#18)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 02:46:36 PM EST
    I was right the first time.

    Parent
    ohh ok (none / 0) (#24)
    by Jgarza on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 02:48:13 PM EST
    makes more sense

    Parent
    Another grassy knoll conspiracy theory (none / 0) (#30)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 03:05:23 PM EST
    Do you suppose Howard Dean instilled such stiff penalties on MI and FL because he knew Hillary would/could win them?

    Double Standard (5.00 / 1) (#42)
    by Stellaaa on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 03:23:42 PM EST
    Imagine, just imagine, the no committed votes for Michigan and Florida votes were favoring Obama. Just imagine the allegations: 1. The rules don't apply because they were designed to favor Clinton. 2. The people's voices are being suppressed. 3. Those people will not vote Democratic in the GE if they are not allowed to have their votes count. Please add to the list of Obama whining that could have gone.

    Parent
    No one forced them to move their primaries ahead (none / 0) (#34)
    by andrewwm on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 03:07:27 PM EST
    If you want to get real tin-foil hatish you could propose that maybe Obama's camp encouraged the states to move forward so then Obama, in cahoots with Dean, could punish them and prevent them from going to Hillary.

    Seriously, I hope your post was in jest! It's so hard to tell around here.

    Parent

    Dean is an opportunist (none / 0) (#41)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 03:19:52 PM EST
    saw the opening.

    He's always been about not disenfranchising voters...until now.

    Parent

    Republicans forced them to do so (none / 0) (#49)
    by Cream City on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 04:13:56 PM EST
    in Florida.  The Republican legislature did it.

    Read up.

    Parent

    what about this money story... (none / 0) (#31)
    by mike in dc on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 03:05:25 PM EST
    ...that Hillary loaned 5 million to her own campaign, in January, before Super Tuesday?

    Bad news for Hillary (none / 0) (#37)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 03:10:14 PM EST
    See my latest post.

    Parent
    Cash flow. (none / 0) (#39)
    by oldpro on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 03:14:14 PM EST
    Gotta pay the bills on time.

    Ever been in business?  Run a campaign?  It's not unusual.  As I recall, Kerry had to mortgage his house at one point...

    Parent

    Hillary is loaning her camaign 5 million dollars (none / 0) (#33)
    by byteb on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 03:06:47 PM EST
    according to MSNBC

    Alaska eh? (none / 0) (#51)
    by Wile ECoyote on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 04:48:15 PM EST
    Sen. Obama has the Eskimo vote all wrapped up.  

    Clinton's edge in California, Latinos and Asians (none / 0) (#53)
    by Aaron on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:52:49 PM EST
    Why Latinos and Asian Americans Went for Hillary

    [The reason Hillary won is because the Latino and Asian American votes remain emergent, not yet insurgent.

    Emergent voting blocs respond to leaders in their community. If the candidate wins the leader, she wins her followers. Insurgent voting blocs instead respond to calls for change, and may focus more on single issues or agendas. If a candidate stakes out a good position, she captures the community. Hillary played the politics of emergence.]

    [Latinos and Asian Americans in California are overwhelmingly Democratic, and will likely remain so for a very long time because of Reep immigration demagoguery. But they also tend to be more mainstream and conservative.]

    [So Hillary won by old party-style top-down appeals to Latinos and Asian Americans. Dems shouldn't rest thinking that this strategy will hold for long. Younger Latino and Asian American voters were energized by Obama, and formed a visible and crucial part of his GOTV ground troops. They had an impact. Roberto Lovato notes that Obama was able to bring down Hillary's overall 4-1 advantage among Latino voters to a 3-2 advantage by Super Tuesday. It could be argued that Obama's bottom-up machinery hasn't yet taken full advantage of the pent-up energy amongst young Brown and Yellow voters.]



    I Couldnt Believe This (none / 0) (#55)
    by LetMeDoIt90 on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:56:56 PM EST
    Know matter what it comes down to the votes and if they keep their promises. I just came across "The Leagues" FaceBook page. They ask you to vote for your favorite presidential candidate and your three top issues. After you vote they give you the result of your city. The result surprised me. I thought that my city were complete democrats. Check this out heres the link Apps.facebook.com/theleague