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Obama Campaign Predicts Deadlocked Race

By Big Tent Democrat

Via Kevin Drum, the Obama camp is predicting a deadlocked race:

By the time the last primary is held June 7, Obama's advisers project he will have 1,806 delegates to 1,789 for New York Senator Hillary Clinton, according to a document outlining the scenario that was inadvertently attached to a release on delegate counts from yesterday's Super Tuesday primaries.

Fascinating. Boy will we have a mess if that is true. Florida and Michigan and the superdelegates will be in the middle of it. Frankly if that happens, an Obama/Clinton, Clinton/Obama ticket simply is unavoidable. There can be no other way.

As always, time will tell.

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  • Display: Sort:
    When it's down to 1 Superdelegate (5.00 / 1) (#127)
    by Ben Masel on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:13:41 PM EST
    Jimmy Carter will decide the nominee.

    So Clinton really is the underdog. (none / 0) (#1)
    by oculus on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 05:54:25 PM EST
    But, was this release really "inadvertent"?

    You know (none / 0) (#9)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:00:58 PM EST
    I would think so.

    Do not see the upsaide for Obama on this.

    Parent

    Perhaps (5.00 / 2) (#52)
    by Steve M on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:24:47 PM EST
    They felt they had to defuse the emerging BTD narrative before it overtook everyone.

    Parent
    Heh (none / 0) (#58)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:28:09 PM EST
    BTD (none / 0) (#91)
    by Kathy on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:45:18 PM EST
    upside on the release or upside on the outcome?

    Parent
    The release (none / 0) (#111)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:55:57 PM EST
    I see the release (none / 0) (#125)
    by Kathy on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:11:58 PM EST
    as backing up what Obama said today: superdelegates, you better fall in line or I will rip this party asunder.

    Tell me if I'm wrong, but I really saw what he said as a warning.

    Parent

    Did you see the item (none / 0) (#141)
    by stillife on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:37:38 PM EST
    on politico.com?  I'm sorry, I don't know how to link here yet, but it's entitled "Dems Head for Messy Nomination Process".  Here's the gist:

    It is easy to imagine that Barack Obama could get to Denver with more pledged delegates than Hillary Clinton, but that she could get the nomination based on the votes of the superdelegates.

    "And that," a senior Obama aide told me Tuesday night, "would create havoc."

    The article goes on to say (quoting from the Obama camp) that they've been successful at prying some superdelegates away from Hillary.

    I don't know much about backroom politics, but I wonder if this "accidental press release" is some kind of ploy to pressure superdelegates to support Obama for party unity.

    Parent

    Obama may implode (none / 0) (#198)
    by felizarte on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 01:50:29 AM EST
    if he is beginning to talk this way.  At any rate, there are quite a few states to have their caucauses and primaries.  It is premature for Obama to be making such statements, unless he had a real motive for doing so. If he is confident of his money and his campaign and his chances, he doesn't have to say anything like this.  I agree with someone else who said something about the Obama campaign possibly seeing some signs in their internal data to spook them this early.  

    Parent
    The More I Think About It (none / 0) (#110)
    by BDB on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:55:20 PM EST
    I initially agreed and posted that there's nothing in this to help Obama and that I actually thought it helped Clinton.  

    Having thought about it longer, I'm not as sure.  What if he's worried that he won't come out ahead of Clinton, that he can't win the fight over Michigan/Florida, and/or the Super Delegates are going to want a Clinton/Obama ticket because she will have won the popular vote or the big states or whatever.  Perhaps one way to encourage super delegates to get behind him now is to suggest that he's going to be the pledged delegate victor and that if they don't coalesce around a nominee now, then the convention will be a mess.  

    He's had a great couple of weeks, perhaps his campaign has decided that now is the time to strike for Super Delegates.

    Or not.  An inadvertant leak is sometimes just an inadvertant leak.

    Eh, who knows?

    Parent

    Obama will implode (none / 0) (#113)
    by Arabella Trefoil on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:57:31 PM EST
    One of his staff will hit the send button before looking at the "To" line. Or he'll be shocked when the bulldozers full of dirt show up on his front lawn and not Hillary's. Obama has been bubble boy so far.

    Parent
    Not for long (none / 0) (#2)
    by Aaron on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 05:55:55 PM EST
    Clinton better start thinking about how she's going to graciously accept the vice presidents seat.  :-)

    Obama/Clinton

    Clinton/Obama

    Either way, we win!

    And this is best for Democratic unity, and the national election.

    Perhaps (none / 0) (#7)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:00:30 PM EST
    This money thing jarred me.

    I thought Clinton was in the drivers seat.

    NOw I am not at all sure where this goes.

    Parent

    Clinton (none / 0) (#165)
    by auntmo on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:11:35 PM EST
    Latest  daily  Gallup  shows   a  sharp  uptick  for   Clinton.    She's  leading  him  nationally   at  52%/39%.  

    Plenty of  money  for  Clinton's  campaign.  

    I  think its  an  act of  desperation  on Obama's  part.   BLUFF

    Parent

    veep (none / 0) (#143)
    by tek on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:41:23 PM EST
    I don't think Hillary will accept the Veep slot and I can't even imagine Obama would ask her, he's gotten so used to heaping abuse on her.

    Parent
    I think Obama (none / 0) (#3)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 05:56:07 PM EST
    should come up with a plan that can get both Florida and Michigan seats in Denver but where the delegates from the votes aren't the ones going.

    Either call for special elections or come up with a different idea.  By doing this he can short circuit calls to seat the current delegates which will get ugly otherwise.  

    Is Obama going to pay for the special elections? (none / 0) (#5)
    by RalphB on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 05:58:07 PM EST
    Of course not (none / 0) (#12)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:01:45 PM EST
    Why should he?   He wasn't the one who violated the rules.  

    Parent
    The whole idea is silly (none / 0) (#18)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:04:05 PM EST
    There will be no do overs on this.

    Parent
    My idea is so silly (none / 0) (#181)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:55:38 PM EST
    that apparently happened in 2004 and 1996...

    http://www.mgwashington.com/index.php/news/article/wiil-florida-and-michigan-have-prez-primary-redos 479


    The idea of a caucus - held after the primary -- is not a new idea.

    It had been suggested to Florida by DNC officials last year, amid the fight over the state's setting its primary for Jan. 29.

    And the national party even said it would pay for most of it.

    In 1996, Delaware held a caucus to select delegates after holding a primary that year that was ruled meaningless; the District of Columbia did the same in 2004.

    The idea is that Florida's and Michigan's delegates could be restored to legitimate status -- and still make a difference -- if the state parties held caucuses in the next few months and made those, not their January primaries, the official delegate selection events.

    One DNC official said today there are two ways Florida can move forward.

    It can press ahead with its delegate-selection process based on its primary held against party rules on Jan. 29, and likely not see its delegates seated.

    Or it can now hold a caucus, and hope that the convention credentials committee will recognize the delegates selected in that process. But the official said that has been the choice facing Florida since last year.

    I really fail to see why this is such a terrible idea.  Hillary already won the states.  So why not just legitimize those primaries by holding them again?

    Parent

    Nor did the Voters (none / 0) (#31)
    by Salt on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:11:29 PM EST
    Given the Democratic party permitted (none / 0) (#35)
    by oculus on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:14:10 PM EST
    voting on line by U.S. citizens living outside the U.S., seems to me they could permit the same thing for MI and FL.  

    Parent
    voting online (none / 0) (#98)
    by Kathy on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:48:35 PM EST
    very few people in rural Florida (as well as the elderly) would even begin to know what "online" means.  Extremely unconnected to the net and totally left out as far as infrastructure.  Remember, this is a state without a sales tax.

    Parent
    GOTV to the local library, (none / 0) (#103)
    by oculus on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:51:49 PM EST
    although w/o sales tax, maybe there is no library or no computer in the library.

    Parent
    oculus (none / 0) (#126)
    by Kathy on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:13:21 PM EST
    who is going to drive them there?  Florida is very rural.  Everyone has a car or they stay at home.

    Parent
    Let's move on to a consideration of (none / 0) (#138)
    by oculus on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:25:55 PM EST
    text messaging via cell phone.  It does surprise me to see what can only be called an elderly person with a cell hone glued to his or her ear.  

    Parent
    evidence (none / 0) (#109)
    by mindfulmission on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:55:16 PM EST
    very few people in rural Florida (as well as the elderly) would even begin to know what "online" means.
    Any evidence for the assertion that so many people wouldn't know what "online" means?
    Remember, this is a state without a sales tax.

    Ummm... yea they do.  

    I think you meant that they don't have an income tax.  And that really isn't relevant anyway.  The lack of an income tax has little/nothing to do with their infrastructure.  They don't have an income tax because the state makes so much money off the tourism industry that they have decided that they do not need an income tax.

    Parent

    you're right (none / 0) (#130)
    by Kathy on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:16:28 PM EST
    income tax.

    But, I am shocked that you think everyone is able to vote online there.  I spent every summer of my childhood in various spots all over Florida, and just about every summer now I am at the beach for a week or two.  I own property there and I have a lot of friends there.  As for the tourism dollar, take a look at how many people don't live on a beach or near Disneyland.  Are you telling me people in Two Egg are living off tourist dollars?  There are folks living well below the poverty line.  How are they going to vote?

    Parent

    ummm... (none / 0) (#160)
    by mindfulmission on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:03:43 PM EST
    ... I never said anything about whether or not I thought people would be able to vote online, did I?

    Nor did I say anything about poverty.

    And yes... people in Two Egg are living off of tourist dollars - the state gets significant money from taxes related to tourism, and that money funds many things.  

    Now... that doesn't mean that there is no poverty.  Nor does it mean that everyone has internet access.

    I was doing two things: I was simply asking you to support you assertion regarding people knowing what "online" was.   And I was correcting your fault assertion that certain segments of Florida don't have any infrastructure because of the lack of a sales (or income) tax.

    Parent

    ummmmm (none / 0) (#178)
    by Kathy on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:49:32 PM EST
    if you would bother to read upthread, you would see my response was to a comment about letting Floridians vote online.  You responded to my response, so I assumed that you had, in fact, read the thread rather than just commenting willy nilly.

    If you think Florida has good infrastructure, then you haven't been anywhere instate in a very long time.  

    Parent

    ugh... (none / 0) (#182)
    by mindfulmission on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:56:46 PM EST
    ... you aren't reading anything I write.  Or at least you are ignoring it.

    I know that this was about voting online.  I never said it wasn't.  I was asking you to support you assertion that many in Florida wouldn't even know what "online" is.  

    I also never said Florida had good infrastructure, did I?  If I ever said that, please point it out.  I simply said that any infrastructure problems do not come from the lack of sales tax, being that they have sales tax.  And that you were probably referring to the income tax that they don't have, which still isn't to blame for poor infrastructure issues.  

    Parent

    She didn't violate the rules (none / 0) (#199)
    by Molly Bloom on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 07:14:27 AM EST
    At best (or worst) she violated the spirit of the rules. What she did was play the rules more skillfully than Obama. This is what lawyers do. To me it suggests she is the better lawyer.

    As for violating the rules, about those (nationwide) Obama commercials I saw down here in Florida....

    Was that a violation of the rules, or merely a violation of their spirit while  adroitly playing them?

    How about that organized campaign in MI to get votes for uncommitted?

    You act as though we are ill informed down here. Don't piss off voters you need by foolish,  insulting comments.  

    Don't be so holier than thou that you are blind to the fact that Obama is every bit the ambitious Pol that HRC is.

    Lets not deify him until he is dead and we can review his entire career.

    Parent

    Um (none / 0) (#6)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 05:59:40 PM EST
    how in the world do you think that solves the problem?

    The candidates will have to cut a deal.

    Parent

    Well (none / 0) (#24)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:08:08 PM EST
    Special elections, likely held at the end of the election cycle, could be given focus by the candidates.  

    I just don't see how a deal could be cut that would be equitable to both parties.  

    And honestly it doesn't matter if they have the special election.  Obama needs to get ahead of the debate.  By suggesting this he would force Hillary to either agree or argue that her tainted wins should count regardless of whether a considerable number of voters were disenfranchised.

    Parent

    There is no chance (none / 0) (#34)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:13:33 PM EST
    of a special caucus. None.

    Parent
    That may be so (none / 0) (#48)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:22:24 PM EST
    But there is no way that the current delegates will get seated either.  There would be lawsuits galore if the DNC tried to seat them in a meaningful convention.

    So the matter becomes on of perception.  Better to take the lead than allow your opponent to frame the argument.

    Parent

    Lawsuits? (none / 0) (#50)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:24:13 PM EST
    Puhleeaze.

    If Hillary has the most delegates they will most definitely be seated.

    If Obasma has the most there will be a deal cut - Obama at the top of the ticket and Clinton either being the VP or picking the VP.


    Parent

    Wow. Who the heck supplies your (none / 0) (#54)
    by oculus on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:25:42 PM EST
    crystal ball?

    Parent
    Common sense (none / 0) (#68)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:33:26 PM EST
    If she has the most delegates, she can seat the Michigan and Florida delegations.

    Who can scream much? She has the most delegates. Hard to argue you deserve to be ther nominee if you do not have the most delegates. And she is going to pick Obama to unify the Party.

    If Obama has the most, he won't seat those delegations and has no way of forcing the nomination. He has to deal.

    The deal will be Hillary or her pick as VP.

    Simple.

    Parent

    Meaning, he has the most delegates but (5.00 / 0) (#72)
    by oculus on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:35:16 PM EST
    not the magic number.  I get it.

    Parent
    never thought of it that way (none / 0) (#74)
    by athyrio on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:35:42 PM EST
    BTD but you are right, no way he cannot deal or those two states will be totally pissed...

    Parent
    I disagree (none / 0) (#65)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:31:19 PM EST
    If Hillary is ahead she has no reason to seat them and seating them will give the Obama supporters fodder for potential legal action.

    If Obama is ahead he might strike a deal for expediency sake but that assumes that Hillary would be willing to make a deal rather than try to go for the win by seating those delegates.  

    Parent

    What court would entertain such a (none / 0) (#75)
    by oculus on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:36:29 PM EST
    lawsuit.  Party makes the rules, party enforces rules.  

    Parent
    All sorts of Constitutional problems (none / 0) (#81)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:39:13 PM EST
    The party makes the rules but retroactively changing the rules?  Not a chance.  

    Parent
    Don't the rules allow the delegates at the ... (5.00 / 0) (#88)
    by robrecht on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:42:22 PM EST
    ... convention to make this decision?

    Parent
    to which constitution (5.00 / 0) (#101)
    by Kathy on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:50:52 PM EST
    are you referring?  The constitution does not direct political parties.

    As a matter of fact, the constitution made it clear where they stood on a woman and a black man ever casting a vote, let alone getting one.

    Parent

    The 14th Amendment (none / 0) (#115)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:00:00 PM EST
    would be a good place to start.  

    I would need to read the Michigan Constitution to see what's there.  

    Parent

    Do you really think Obama will try to sue the ... (none / 0) (#117)
    by robrecht on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:02:16 PM EST
    ... the Democratic Party?

    Parent
    I don't know (none / 0) (#137)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:25:05 PM EST
    I doubt we will ever know because I doubt think the DNC would stick its nose into this.  

    Parent
    And what is the state action? (none / 0) (#201)
    by Molly Bloom on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 07:21:06 AM EST
    You do understand the 14th amendment requires an action by a state or municipal government?

    Here try reading this

    What section of the 14th amendment do you think applies and why?


    Parent

    And what is the state action? (none / 0) (#202)
    by Molly Bloom on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 07:24:24 AM EST
    You do understand the 14th amendment, section 1 requires an action by a state or municipal government? That  sections 2 & 3 refer to congress, not political conventions? We are not discussing validity of debt, so section 4 is out. What law did congress pass pursuant to enforce which of the previous 4 sections and how does it apply?

    Here try reading this

    What section of the 14th amendment do you think applies and why?


    Parent

    BTD, did you ever complete your update on (none / 0) (#85)
    by oculus on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:41:34 PM EST
    one person one vote prior to GE?

    Parent
    No (none / 0) (#89)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:44:15 PM EST
    But you are right I think given recent decisions.

    Party issues, not government issues here.

    No case period.

    Parent

    Except that (none / 0) (#99)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:48:57 PM EST
    the state governments WERE involved in this decision.  They voted to change the dates.

    You are certainly correct that this is a Party issue however IF one of the parties acts in a way to procedurally change the game in such a way that they  give a specific candidate what is perceived to be an unfair advantage, you can be CERTAIN that the courts would step in.

    I don't think the DNC wants to even risk that of course.  

    I will agree that if the loser is willing to take the VP role, your scenario is more likely.

    Parent

    Florida (none / 0) (#144)
    by Kathy on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:43:00 PM EST
    state government, republican controlled, made the decision.

    Local folks did not have a choice.

    Parent

    Except the action you complain of (none / 0) (#203)
    by Molly Bloom on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 07:29:12 AM EST
    was done by the party. The state's action was irrelevant.

    This is a "cry in your beer every Thursday night" cause of action as Professor Cochran used to say.

    If by some miracle such a case succeeded it would be Bush v Gore redux.  

    Parent

    And the state action is what? (none / 0) (#200)
    by Molly Bloom on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 07:16:11 AM EST
    That may be so (none / 0) (#167)
    by auntmo on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:16:11 PM EST
    Uh,  no, flyerhawk.  

    Obama  has  already  promised   the  FLorida  voters    that  he  will  SUPPORT  their  reinstatement.  

    If  he  goes  back on that  promise,  he's  toast.  

    Parent

    I don't understand your comment. (none / 0) (#36)
    by robrecht on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:14:32 PM EST
    If the delegates are seated, the voters are not disenfranchised.

    Parent
    That too (none / 0) (#37)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:16:50 PM EST
    Of course they are (none / 0) (#44)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:20:04 PM EST
    Since Obama was not even on the ballot in Michigan the delegates representing him could never be delegates at the convention.  

    Would you feel disenfranchised if your candidate was not on the ballot in your state.

    Parent

    Hillary was on the ballot and Obama ... (5.00 / 1) (#62)
    by robrecht on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:30:06 PM EST
    ... could have been on the ballot.  You need to speak to Obama about why he (and Edwards) chose not to be on the ballot.  If anyone 'disenfranchised' the voters, it was Obama and Edwards, right?

    Parent
    That's a rationalization (none / 0) (#70)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:34:11 PM EST
    The delegates were annulled. They ALL agreed not to campaign.  Hillary decided not to remove her name.  

    It doesn't matter.  The horse is out of the barn and if the DNC were to change their mind and allow the delegates to be seated the Obama campaign could sue and WOULD win. No question.

    Parent

    But the voters still voted ... (none / 0) (#84)
    by robrecht on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:40:54 PM EST
    In that sense the horses are not only out of the barn, but they're comin' round the mountain already.  Can't sue a horse.

    Parent
    Glass 1/2 full version (none / 0) (#154)
    by ding7777 on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 08:14:55 PM EST
    Obama (and Edwards) chose to extend the pledge by removing his name from the ballot. Hillary adhered to the pledge that she (and they) signed.

    Parent
    1/2 Full (none / 0) (#168)
    by auntmo on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:20:10 PM EST
    Correct.    Obama  VOLUNTARILY  chose  to  remove  his  name;  his  choice.  

    No   case.

    Parent

    Okay (none / 0) (#49)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:23:05 PM EST
    How about that for a compromise.

    Seat the Florida delegation and have a revote in Michigan?

    You think Obama would go for that? ME neither.

    Parent

    Probably not (none / 0) (#57)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:27:39 PM EST
    But honestly he might.  It really depends on what he thinks he could get in Michigan.  I would imagine that the total delegates for each state would need to be equal though.

    Parent
    The assumption is Obama couldn't (none / 0) (#83)
    by oculus on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:40:10 PM EST
    have beat HRC in MI in a primary, but I wouldn't bet on that until I saw the demographics.  Detroit is similar to St. Louis, white flight leaving a black city behind.  Lots of rural communities, which seem to vote for Obama.  Lots of white, highly educated people in Ann Arbor, East Lansing, Kalamazoo, Ypssilanti (I used to know how to spell that), etc.  Not sure about precentage of Latinos.  Of course, if HRC skims off the blue collar voters, he's in trouble.  

    Parent
    Well (none / 0) (#90)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:44:25 PM EST
    the fact that she was only able to beat Uncommitted by 15% and  237,000 voters actually went to the polls to vote Uncommitted suggests that he would have had a great chance.

    Parent
    not fair (5.00 / 1) (#104)
    by Kathy on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:52:22 PM EST
    Obama actively campaigned for "uncommitted."

    You can't have it both ways.

    Parent

    Not fair (none / 0) (#169)
    by auntmo on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:23:07 PM EST
    Absolutely  correct,  Kathy.  

    Obama's  campaign   chose  to withdraw his name  from   ballot in Michigan,   but  they  also   campaigned  HEAVILY  for  "Uncommitted"  against  Clinton.  

    They  were  ACTIVE  in Michigan.  

    Parent

    that is not true (none / 0) (#194)
    by Tano on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 12:18:26 AM EST
    there was no heavy campaign for uncommitted. There were a few minor local-based efforts, but thats it. Beleive me, I know.

    Parent
    Now how do we factor in Kos's admonition (none / 0) (#100)
    by oculus on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:49:15 PM EST
    to go vote for Romney?  

    Parent
    Here is a deal (none / 0) (#131)
    by Tano on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:16:30 PM EST
    Michigan uncommitteds given to Obama.

    Then a group of superdelegates for Clinton, equal to the combined FL/MI Clinton delegate advantage, agree to support Obama.

    Then the FL/MI delegates are seated and can vote, but their votes will be offset by the switching superdels.

    Parent

    I'm starting to like a coin flip scenario. (none / 0) (#134)
    by oculus on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:18:05 PM EST
    Florida (none / 0) (#166)
    by auntmo on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:13:09 PM EST
    So, you're  calling  for   DO-OVER   just  so  Obama   can be  favored?    

    He'll  never  carry   FLorida  in the  general  if  he  tries  to negate  Florida  votes  already  cast.

    Parent

    If this race is deadlocked (none / 0) (#4)
    by RalphB on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 05:57:15 PM EST
    I hope it's fought to the bitter end with blood running in the aisles in Denver.  Anyone being forced out is completely unacceptable.

    By the way,  Good Morning President McCain.


    Not a problem with the two frontrunners (none / 0) (#8)
    by scribe on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:00:54 PM EST
    being the ticekt.
    1.  They will complement each others' strengths and weaknesses - Obama as visionary instrument and worker of change, Clinton as hardbar, experienced policy wonk and armtwisting force.
    2.  Compare that pairing (either way) to what the Repugs are going to cough up - the 71 year old McCain, and (likely) the radical cleric Huckabee.
    3.  Now, we need to get Edwards to sign on as AG, with a quick shot to the S.Ct.

    4.  Imagine the pain the Repugs will feel against that.


    Who is the top of the ticket (none / 0) (#13)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:02:11 PM EST
    is the issue.

    I have always said Obama would be Clinton's VP. If this is how it shakes out, then Clinton would have to be Obama's VP.

    Assuming Obama has the edge in delegates.

    Parent

    Rezko Card (5.00 / 1) (#29)
    by Salt on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:10:05 PM EST
    I belive the Rezko card is still looming.....maybe I am wrong but I think thats real trouble coming.

    Parent
    Actually, I think Clinton as VP (none / 0) (#33)
    by scribe on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:13:29 PM EST
    would be the better resolution because
    1.  Obama's visionary change agenda is best expressed and carried into reality with him setting the tone from the top.  
    2.  The VP is traditionally the attack dog in the campaign, and (don't hold it against me for saying so) HRC can do that better than Obama can.  She's been through the forge and hardened.
    3.  Looking at the way Bush/Cheney worked out, you want a VP who's even more odious to the opposition party than is your president.  A friend said to me, pre-2000 election, in regards to Cheney as Bush's choice:  "best life insurance policy ever taken out".  We saw the analog in one of Pelosi's excuses for not impeaching Bushie:  "and what, then you get Dick Cheney."  It's a workable model.
    4. HRC has the experience in the ins and outs of DC and the govt from her experience in the WH which will allow her, working with Bam, to undo a lot of the devastation Bush/Cheney have wrought.
    5.  I think she'll be better twisting arms on the Hill than Obama would be.


    Parent
    I think those are backwards (5.00 / 2) (#53)
    by BDB on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:25:09 PM EST
    Those arguments make me want Obama as Veep even more.

    1.  Obama's visionary change agenda is best expressed and carried into reality with him setting the tone from the top.  

       -- Obama is bound to look less substantive standing next to a policy wonk like Clinton.  It looks too much like Bush/Cheney, that she's going to be the one really running the government.  

    2. The VP is traditionally the attack dog in the campaign, and (don't hold it against me for saying so) HRC can do that better than Obama can.  She's been through the forge and hardened.

       -- In theory, I'd agree, but in practice every time Clinton says anything even vaguely critical, the press jumps all over her.  Meanwhile Obama has proven he can go negative without the press calling him negative.  

    3.  Looking at the way Bush/Cheney worked out, you want a VP who's even more odious to the opposition party than is your president.  A friend said to me, pre-2000 election, in regards to Cheney as Bush's choice:  "best life insurance policy ever taken out".  We saw the analog in one of Pelosi's excuses for not impeaching Bushie:  "and what, then you get Dick Cheney."  It's a workable model.

       -- First, I reject your belief that Clinton is more odious than Obama.  By the General Election, either (both) will be odious to Republicans.  Second, again, reminding voters of the Bush/Cheney
    dynamic is absolutely awful politics.

    4.  HRC has the experience in the ins and outs of DC and the govt from her experience in the WH which will allow her, working with Bam, to undo a lot of the devastation Bush/Cheney have wrought.

       -- Again, an argument for her to be on the top of the ticket.  We've seen what happens when we have a Vice President who understands the executive branch much better than the President.  And even if Clinton wouldn't go out and usurp the President's role, it's terrible optics to have a ticket where it looks like the VP will have to conduct on-the-job training of the president.  Where it looks like she's going to be the one running the government day-to-day.  

    5.   I think she'll be better twisting arms on the Hill than Obama would be.

        -- Again, that's a president's job.  Having the VP do it just makes it look either like 1) she's the one really in charge or 2) he's not tough enough to do it himself.

    Parent

    Clinton is obviously more odious (none / 0) (#135)
    by Tano on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:19:23 PM EST
    to the Republicans, who would be dreaming of doing an impeachment.

    Parent
    Clinton as Pres (none / 0) (#77)
    by IndependantThinker on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:36:51 PM EST
    I can't see the Senior Senator being the VP to the junior and significantly less experienced Senator.

    Parent
    Well, Obama's raised a huge pile of money in the (none / 0) (#95)
    by scribe on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:47:02 PM EST
    last 24 hours.  

    Like, $3.7 million.

    Sad to say, but money-raising ability usually trumps experience because the guy with the money gets the wins the vast majority of the time.  I think the way it turns out, HRC winds up swallowing her pride to get onto the ticket, if she's asked at all.

    Parent

    really? (none / 0) (#112)
    by Kathy on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:56:46 PM EST
    Tell that to Mitt Romney.  McCain was running on fumes a month ago.  You can't say that money makes the huge difference anymore.  The old paradigms don't work in this new type of election.

    As for an Obama/Clinton ticket, at the risk of ticking off Ted Kennedy again, it wasn't Kennedy who got sweeping social legislation passed.

    Parent

    McCain (none / 0) (#158)
    by cannondaddy on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 08:52:56 PM EST
    was running on fumes six months ago, not when the money matters as much.  Obama gets better returns on his money than Romney does.

    Parent
    Obama (none / 0) (#186)
    by auntmo on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 11:11:39 PM EST
    Obama  gets better returns  than Romney?  

    That  must  be  why  yesterday's  Gallup  shows  a  sharp  uptick for  Clinton,  and  shows  Obama  now  losing   52%  to  39%.  

    Better returns?   Rightyooooooo

    Parent

    Kennedy (none / 0) (#136)
    by Tano on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:20:59 PM EST
    Johnson

    Parent
    Do the names JFK and LBJ mean anything to you? (none / 0) (#204)
    by Molly Bloom on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 07:33:34 AM EST
    which was the senior senator? Which was the VP candidate?

    Parent
    I disagree (none / 0) (#39)
    by BDB on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:18:11 PM EST
    this is so close, either could be at the top of the ticket, particularly if Clinton has won the popular vote, which I suspect will be true given that he's racking up a lot of his delegates in small caucus states.  And I've already discussed the Michigan/Florida issue, so I won't rehash that mess.

    Both are going to have an argument for the top of the ticket.  The question for the Super Delegates and party is which ticket is the best Democratic ticket.  That's Clinton/Obama.  I don't see how Obama/Clinton works.  It's weaker than either would be without the other.

    To the extent Clinton's money issues change anything, I think it raises questions about whether it will come to this.  But if she can stay in the race and this is the delegate count, then everyone is going to have to think about what's best for the party.  November has to be our top priority.

    Parent

    Delegates will determine this (none / 0) (#47)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:22:08 PM EST
    whoever is ahead EVEN by 1 will be the nominee.

    Parent
    Yes (5.00 / 1) (#61)
    by BDB on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:28:53 PM EST
    But that includes Super Delegates.  It will be Super Delegates, IMO, who decide this, not the pledged delegates.  One way they could decide it is to simply go with the pledged delegate count minus Michigan and Florida.  One way is to go with it including Michigan and Florida.  One way is to look at the popular vote.

    Any of those ways is a disaster and will lead to half the party claiming an illegitimate result.  The Super Delegates will have to try to decide how to keep that from happening.  

    But if Obama's campaign is right, then we're all screwed and the Democrats will have found once again a way to weaken themselves going into a presidential campaign.  This will be an absolute disaster for the party.

    Parent

    Exactly. And Dem leadership know (none / 0) (#133)
    by Cream City on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:17:09 PM EST
    -- Super Delegates know -- that:

    Clinton has won most of the big blue states that are key in winning in November, and

    Clinton is the favorite of the committed Dems, the real Dems, not the "Dem for a Day" independents going for Obama.  They won't be at the convention, they won't be filling party coffers and leadership pipelines for years into the future.

    It seems clear to me what wise Dem leaders would do.

    Parent

    I agree with this (none / 0) (#51)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:24:43 PM EST
    If that doesn't happen the losing candidate and their supporters will go absolutely nuts.  

    Parent
    I would like to point out (5.00 / 0) (#116)
    by Kathy on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:02:15 PM EST
    It's not Hillary Clinton who is making public statements warning superdelegates that there will be hell to pay if they swing this vote one way or another.

    I see that as a direct warning that Obama has every intention of splitting the party right down the middle if he doesn't get his way.

    Why the media isn't picking up on this is beyond me.  I mean, for the love of peeps, this is big stuff.  If I were an elder statesman/superdelegate, I'd be really, really pis*ed about some upstart first term junior senator telling me what I can and cannot do.  Plus, look at who has his back--Kennedy and Kerry, who can't even give the man their own state.

    This is not going to be good.

    Parent

    The Obama camp (none / 0) (#146)
    by Steve M on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:45:12 PM EST
    is playing the part of Bush 2000 and I don't like it one bit.

    Parent
    a gratuitous insult (none / 0) (#147)
    by Tano on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:53:18 PM EST
    Which campaign is threatening, in the case where they fall short in the number of earned delegates, to throw on the table a bunch of delegates that she had already agreed would not count?


    Parent
    Not gratuitous at all (none / 0) (#155)
    by Steve M on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 08:25:42 PM EST
    Only one side is threatening to blow up the whole deal if they don't get their way in the end.

    This is exactly how it played out in 2000.  The Republicans came across as the irrational ones who would riot if they didn't get the win.  The Democrats were seen as the sensible ones who would obey the judgment of the courts.  And so the media wound up begging the Democrats to please, please just let the Republicans have their way, so that there wouldn't be an irreconcilable rift.

    Either outcome - not allowing MI and FL to decide the nominee, or reversing the decision that everyone relied on - is going to result in some amount of injustice to someone.  If you disagree with that, and you believe that one of the options is eminently fair, then of course you wouldn't have a problem with things working out that way.  But that's not reality.

    Parent

    Insult???? (none / 0) (#187)
    by auntmo on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 11:15:04 PM EST
    I guess  you're  unaware  that  Obama    himself  pledged  to   SUPPORT  reinstating  both Michigan and Florida  at  the  convention.  

    Go  back on that promise,  and he's toast.

    Parent

    I concur on that (none / 0) (#80)
    by scribe on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:39:02 PM EST
    but it likely will be the superdelegates who really do it.  

    You're assuming delegates will hold to their pledges (not all of them will).

    You're also assuming Edwards will release his delegates, instead of asking them to move one way or the other.

    Oh, and as to superdelegates.  Since Senator Sanctimony of Connecticut, formerly of the Connecticut for Lieberman party but recently returned to the fold (sort of) would be, by virtue of his position as Senator, entitled to be a superdelegate, who gets to show him the door for (violating party rules by) campaigning for the Republican candidate, the 71 year old John McCain?  And, what if that credential fight is the balance of the superdelegates?  Or some of his buddies decide to go with him?

    Parent

    Don't be conclusory - like when you say (none / 0) (#67)
    by scribe on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:32:20 PM EST
    this:  
    I don't see how Obama/Clinton works.  It's weaker than either would be without the other.

    I just explained how it's stronger.  

    One of the big gripes about Obama has been that he's only been in the Senate a couple years, and has little real governmental experience.  HRC, OTOH, has been waist-deep in the big issues since she was a junior attorney fresh out of law school working for the House Judiciary on the Nixon impeachment.  

    The job of a president is not to micromanage - I first got to know that term when Carter was criticized for doing just that with all sorts of issues, like he was still the governor of Georgia.  Rather, the job of a president is to set a tone for how the executive branch of government will be run, select competent underlings, and make sure they carry out both his directives and comply with the tone of his policies.  A policy wonk will (almost certainly) get swamped by the details, but details are for subordinates.

    Obama promises change, and is often (rightly, IMHO) criticized for having not a lot behind that word.  With HRC as a VP, he can finesse that problem nicely.  

    And, as to the odiousness to the opposition angle, to be even more lucid, it's often mentioned in the African-American community that they despair of Obama ever becoming president, even if he were to win (the nomination or even the election), because some Klukker (or other racist/radical type, take your pick) with an assault weapon would make sure of the result.  It would surely give even the wackiest of wackos pause to know that Hillary (whom they hate even more for being Hillary than they do Obama for his blackness) is waiting in the wings.

    Parent

    No offense (none / 0) (#79)
    by IndependantThinker on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:38:46 PM EST
    but Obama/Clinton is absurd.

    Parent
    Clinton/Obama ticket (none / 0) (#97)
    by Arabella Trefoil on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:48:11 PM EST
    would be suicidal.

    Parent
    Based on your previous comments ... (none / 0) (#120)
    by cymro on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:04:05 PM EST
    ... are we to assume you object to having Obama on the ticket, period? In which case, your post title is very misleading, especially since you provide no explanation as to who would be committing "suicide," or why. It implies, in the context of this discussion, that you object to a ticket having Clinton at the top.

    Parent
    Top o f the ticket (none / 0) (#170)
    by auntmo on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:26:38 PM EST
    Obama   won't  have  the most  delegates.  

    He   has  already  promised  Florida  he will support  their  reinstatment at  the  convention.

    Florida  numbers:
    Clinton  856,944
    Obama    568,930

    Obama  may be   "maneuvering" now  to make  sure  he  gets  the  VP  slot  and  Clinton doesn't look  elsewhere.  But  that's  all it is.

    Parent

    I could support a (none / 0) (#16)
    by IndependantThinker on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:03:55 PM EST
    Clinton/Obama ticket

    Parent
    Inadvertently attached . . . (none / 0) (#10)
    by IndependantThinker on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:01:22 PM EST
    Yeah sure.

    BTW, I was watching Jim Lehrer's show. He was interviewing David Brooks. I don't know about anyone else but I am getting a little tired of being told that Hillary's supporters are all old women or poor unprofessional workers.  Where is the statisical proof that Obama is drawing all the educated professionals. Doesn't look like it from what I am reading, seeing and hearing.

    What was in it for Obama? (none / 0) (#14)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:02:40 PM EST
    Being (none / 0) (#20)
    by IndependantThinker on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:05:18 PM EST
    neck in neck is his most optimistic scenario. I don't believe he can win. Or maybe I don't want to believe he can win.

    Parent
    Hillary had pulled ahead by 13 points in Gallup (none / 0) (#23)
    by Salt on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:08:06 PM EST
    He's neck and neck now (none / 0) (#27)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:09:17 PM EST
    Neck and Neck (none / 0) (#171)
    by auntmo on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:29:06 PM EST
    He's  not  neck  and  neck  now.  

    Gallup  daily  polling   for   Tues/Wed shows   a  sharp  uptick  for  Clinton:   She's now  beating  him   52%  to  39%.  

    Momentum  goes  to Clinton.  

    And  the  next  three  states,  especially Texas  and Ohio,  show  her   with  very  large leads.

    Parent

    Ummm.... (none / 0) (#183)
    by mindfulmission on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 11:00:04 PM EST
    ... Texas and Ohio are not among the next three states.

    Obama shows leads in several primaries that come before either Texas or Ohio.

    Parent

    He can't win (none / 0) (#78)
    by Arabella Trefoil on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:37:42 PM EST
    Obama can't win. Hillary is playing a clever game. She's letting her opponent advance until her troups can surround him. She's forcing him to go negative. His hubris will kill him - it's his fatal flaw. Obama wants Hillary to go away. She won't. He's going to blow his stack very soon.

    Hillary is a taichi player.


    Parent

    He can't win (none / 0) (#172)
    by auntmo on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:30:32 PM EST
    I think you're  right  about  Obama  going  negative  as  desperation.  

    Even in his speech after  Super  Tuesday,  he  was     turning   negative   and  petulant.  

    Parent

    Nothing (none / 0) (#21)
    by BDB on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:06:09 PM EST
    I think this strengthens Clinton's hand.  It will put pressure on Super Delegates and party leaders not to let it get to a bruising convention battle.  That, IMO, favors Clinton because she's winning the big states and most, but certainly not all, of the crucial swing states and they know they have a real problem if they don't seat Michigan and Florida.  I'd bet anything that these numbers don't include the Michigan and Florida delegates.

    Parent
    Then Obama should (5.00 / 1) (#25)
    by IndependantThinker on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:08:51 PM EST
    fold now and the Party announce a Clinton/Obama ticket before he destroys the Democratic chances of winning in November.

    Parent
    obama's ego won't allow him to do something (none / 0) (#156)
    by hellothere on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 08:29:59 PM EST
    like that. he has fallen in love with his own hubris. (my opinion) when you lose humility and believe your own press, that is never a good sign.

    Parent
    It's all good! (none / 0) (#66)
    by Arabella Trefoil on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:32:13 PM EST
    Everything Obama does, by mistake or on purpose is always good for him. He's like PeeWee Herman - "I meant to do that."

    Parent
    Rich vs Poor (none / 0) (#22)
    by Salt on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:06:53 PM EST
    The same exit polls that got the Races all wrong.

    Parent
    Dont agree with the count I would add 60 to Clinto (none / 0) (#11)
    by Salt on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:01:37 PM EST
    It may be too late for this, once you pull the historic Group Grudge levers, teams polarize trust is lost and there is not time to rebuild or heal.  The two candidates are nothing alike, their records nothing alike, their values nothing alike Senator Clinton's supporters will not easily move to Senator Obama but more easily to a McCain, historically they are the demographic to swing Parties when they believe the Party has attempted to marginalize their needs.  Add to that the decision of the DNC to disenfranchise the Fla and Mich voters, instead highlighting SC was a massive misjudgment, Mich was a must win, Fla is a want to win and SC was never in play.  My view this is big trouble either way for the Party.

    I would have thought that (none / 0) (#15)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:03:21 PM EST
    before we found out about Clinton's money troubles.

    Parent
    I have some confidence (none / 0) (#30)
    by andgarden on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:10:06 PM EST
    that the money troubles won't be permanent. Clinton can call in favors with Ed Rendell etc. There plenty of recent Hillary converts with big donor lists. Not a guarantee, though.

    Parent
    Well (5.00 / 1) (#45)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:20:31 PM EST
    of course they are not permanent. Will they be long enough to cost her the election?

    Open question.

    Parent

    I see some more self funding in the future (none / 0) (#69)
    by andgarden on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:34:07 PM EST
    And if they're smart--and they are--they will make a showing in every contest from here to April 2nd, even if it costs them $15M of their own money. It could be between that and getting out now. The "firewall" model is dubious.

    Parent
    I think that is the plan (none / 0) (#87)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:42:06 PM EST
    no question.

    Not much paid media though.

    Parent

    Street money in New Orleans (none / 0) (#96)
    by andgarden on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:47:45 PM EST
    Bill Jefferson might be Hillary's new best friend.

    Parent
    And if this is true (none / 0) (#105)
    by andgarden on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:52:52 PM EST
    Hillary is done:
    Clinton, with less money to spend and less confident of her prospects in the February contests, will instead concentrate her efforts on Ohio and Texas, large states that hold primaries March 4 and where polling shows her with a significant lead. She even is looking ahead to Pennsylvania's primary April 22, believing a largely elderly population there will favor the former first lady.

    She can't wait until March. She needs to compete now.

    Parent

    Eh (none / 0) (#114)
    by BDB on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:58:21 PM EST
    Maybe this is true.  But the Clinton team has been much better about lowering expectations than the Obama team.  I don't think they expect to win any states in February and are concentrating on the bigger primaries, but I don't think that necessarily means they aren't doing anything in the February states.  

    Parent
    They can't not contest Feb states (none / 0) (#119)
    by andgarden on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:03:16 PM EST
    And it seems to me that they need to at least win one or two.

    They might be playing expectations, but I believe it. The big state strategy is great--unless you have to wait through a month of smaller ones. They understood this about Iowa and new Hampshire, and in a way, we're back to that.


    Parent

    I think some are also forgetting (none / 0) (#121)
    by Kathy on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:06:13 PM EST
    that states are not all or none.  She will continue to pick up delegates.  She might lose her edge on the popular vote for a week or so, but this ain't over.

    Parent
    Feb states (none / 0) (#173)
    by auntmo on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:33:48 PM EST
    Clinton is  FAVORED  with high margins  in  Texas  and Ohio.  

    Parent
    funny... (none / 0) (#184)
    by mindfulmission on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 11:01:12 PM EST
    ... because neither Texas or Ohio have primaries in February.

    Parent
    February (none / 0) (#188)
    by auntmo on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 11:22:08 PM EST
    No   kidding?????  Duh  

    All she's got to  do  is   get  through February,  and  she's   strongly  favored  in  big  states  early March.  

    Even  Obama's  campaign is  admitting  she'll  win   Texas, Ohio, and  Pennsylvania.  

    That  leaves  Obama  with a lot  of  states  that  will   go  RED in  November  anyway.  

    And  his  money can't  fix  that.

    Parent

    what? (none / 0) (#193)
    by mindfulmission on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 12:08:45 AM EST
    No   kidding?????  Duh  
    Well... you are the one that called them "Feb states", and also said that they were in the next three primaries.

    Parent
    Don't forget about McCain (none / 0) (#151)
    by blogtopus on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 08:01:06 PM EST
    He proved that money isn't a problem anymore, as long as people see that their candidate of choice is running out.

    Parent
    not sure about that (none / 0) (#162)
    by Jeralyn on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:36:06 PM EST
    people could have buyers' remorse by then and she will for sure be the underdog. I think her campaign coffers will start filling again soon.

    Given the demographics in next week's races, I don't see her spending money there as bringing a big return on her investment. On the other hand, next month's big states could still swing her way if she cements her organization  there now and Obama is trying to do both the little states and the big states at once. Or, maybe he'll think the momentum from next week's wins will be enough to carry him in the March big states -- I don't think it will be, but you never know.

    Parent

    It's the Giuliani in Florida gamble (none / 0) (#163)
    by andgarden on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:42:25 PM EST
    Obviously, Hillary is a far superior candidate to Rudy, but if she can't pull a few of these Feb states off, I really do think the vultures will circle. She needs a win in Virginia, Louisiana, or Maryland. The first one seems most possible, but it will be difficult to do without money.

    Parent
    Next month (none / 0) (#189)
    by auntmo on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 11:24:33 PM EST
    My  point  exactly,  jeralynn.  

    Barak  picks up  a  couple  small/medium in  February,  with   Hillary still  adding  delegates  right along.  

    But  BIG  states  in  March,  all  leaning  heavily   Clinton,   give  her  the  edge.  

    Parent

    Clinton's $$$ (none / 0) (#195)
    by auntmo on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 01:24:21 AM EST
    She  raised   $3  million  today,  and  still   adding  donations.    

    No money troubles  there  anymore.

    Parent

    If That's What Obama Thinks (none / 0) (#17)
    by BDB on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:03:56 PM EST
    Then he can start resigning himself to being the VP nominee once the June 7th primaries are over.  I don't mean that this is reason for him to quit now.  It's just a prediction and he may win this thing outright.

    But if that prediction is right, then the democratic party has a real problem.  If Obama had won one or two big states last night and closed in the others, then I'd say Clinton would be done.  But Obama is losing the big states and the Michigan/Florida thing has the potential to rip the party apart. Not just at the convention, but crippling the party's efforts in two critically important states in November if they aren't seated.  Those two states have to count in some way.  They're too important in the electoral college not to.

    In a split decision, the best scenario for the party is a Clinton/Obama ticket. That's the combination most likely to win in November.  And winning in November is the most important thing.

    Not as long as he has the most delegates (none / 0) (#19)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:05:16 PM EST
    IT will be an interesting negotiation if it turns out that way.

    Parent
    The most delegates (none / 0) (#28)
    by BDB on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:09:54 PM EST
    only matters for Obama if that number includes Michigan and Florida.  So long as those states are unseated, Obama has a problem.

    Granted, seating them also poses problems, but I think given their importance to Democratic electoral college chances and the history in Florida, it's going to be impossible to avoid seating them.  

    Regardless of whether I'm right about this favoring Clinton or not, one thing seems certain, no matter who wins the nomination under this scenario, Howard Dean loses.

    Parent

    The DNC (5.00 / 1) (#41)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:19:37 PM EST
    is DEFINITELY the goat of this race.

    Inexcusable stupidity onhow they handled the Michigan and Florida situations.

    They had an easy way - the GOP model. Take away half the delegates.

    Parent

    Absolutely (none / 0) (#92)
    by BDB on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:45:41 PM EST
    I hope it doesn't come down to this.  That Obama either has enough delegates where the seating of Michigan and Florida won't matter or Clinton has enough delegates to seat them and be done with it.

    This is a potential nightmare and it's entirely the DNC's fault.  

    In a political junkie way it would be interesting to see how it plays out.  It's not clear to me that a candidates' delegates or prominent supporters will automatically agree with their candidate on this issue. There's already been one letter sent to Howard Dean calling for the resolution of the Michigan/Florida issue by Mary Frances Beery (Bill Clinton's chair of the US Commission on Civil Rights) and civil rights leader Roger Wilkens (an Obama supporter whose wife may work for Obama).  While it doesn't suggest how the issue be resolved, it does stress the importance of enfranchising the voters in Michigan and Florida.

    Parent

    cx: Mary Frances Berry (none / 0) (#124)
    by Cream City on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:09:59 PM EST
    I believe.  Excellent historian of the women's rights and civil rights movements.

    Parent
    Couldn't they still do it? (none / 0) (#205)
    by rafaelh on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 10:20:52 AM EST
    Agree to make the election count but cut their delegate numbers by half? By 2/3rds? It would blunt the impact for Obama and he might agree if he thinks it will save him good will with the super delegates from those states?

    Parent
    What If He Has A 17 Delegate Lead (none / 0) (#55)
    by MO Blue on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:26:57 PM EST
    and Clinton has a sizable popular vote lead? Obama's wins contain a lot of caucuses. What then?

    If this becomes a situation where voters are disenfranchised and normal rules are suspended, it is going to cause a lot of problems for the party no matter how it comes down. Either way, you have a large number of people who are angry and feel that they and their candidate have been cheated.  

    Parent

    Caucus delegates cannot be counted yet (none / 0) (#123)
    by Cream City on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:08:28 PM EST
    and I wonder why we're going with numbers as if they have been allotted.  Only delegates to state conventions have been determined -- and some states do not bind them, allocate differently (even winner takes all) for the national convention, etc. . . .

    So I consider Obama's total to be soft numbers, mushier than Clinton's.  Where am I wrong in this?

    Parent

    Most delegates (none / 0) (#190)
    by auntmo on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 11:28:10 PM EST
    Under  what  scenario,  even if  Obama  has  delegates,   but  NOT   California, Florida, Michigan,  New  York,  New  Jersey,  or  Ohio,  

    Do  you  see  the  Democratic  Party  putting him  at  the top  of  the ticket?  

    Winning    Georgia, Alabama,  Kansas,  NOrth  Dakota,  Utah, Iowa,  and  Alaska----all  red  states in  the  general-----does  not  a presidential  frontrunner  make.  

    Not   gonna  happen,  big  tent.  

    If  he pushes  this,  he will  destroy  the Party you  love.

    Parent

    I always like your posts, and could not agree more (none / 0) (#73)
    by Angel on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:35:23 PM EST
    with this one.  MI and FL have to count or else we are doomed to President McCain.  BO was on the ticket for FL so he will get some delegates.  He chose not to be on the ballot in MI, his mistake.  You don't get any do-overs....

    Parent
    If That's What Obama THinks (none / 0) (#174)
    by auntmo on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:37:49 PM EST
    Agree  completely  with your assessment, BDB.

    I  think  the  "accidental"  release of this  Obama  camapaign info  is  Obama's ploy to  wedge himself into  the  VP  slot,   given  that  Clinton     might not  choose   him.  

    He  wants to  make sure she has no other choice.

    Parent

    Seems like we're heading that way (none / 0) (#26)
    by blogtopus on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:08:53 PM EST
    Obama / Clinton!
    Robin & Batman!

    Something seems wrong with that order, but if that's the way it works out. Hell, I got used to Ebert & Roeper over Siskel & Ebert.

    It could work out to our advantage. After all, think about how much Cheney expanded the powers of the Veep. snicker.

    Cheney (none / 0) (#32)
    by BDB on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:13:16 PM EST
    Is one of the reasons why Clinton can't be the Veep.  The Dem ticket cannot invite those comparisons.  Obama risks that his freshness will come across as naivete next to the battle-scarred Clinton, that his inspirational speeches will come across as shallow compared to her wonkishness.  Standing side-by-side helps them both if she's at the top of the ticket.  It helps neither if he is.

    Parent
    Obama as VP (none / 0) (#59)
    by Arabella Trefoil on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:28:35 PM EST
    I'm new here, and I'm still figuring out how to post. For some reason I get the impression that Obama wants to self destruct. He wants it his way or no way at all. I can't see him agreeing to run as VP. His ego won't allow it.

    Thanks to the good people who told me about TalkLeft.

    Parent

    You are correct. With BO it is ALL about him. He (none / 0) (#76)
    by Angel on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:36:36 PM EST
    is arrogant and petulant.  Same thing we have in the White House now...

    Parent
    Yup. George Bush all over again (none / 0) (#82)
    by Arabella Trefoil on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:39:18 PM EST
    Don't forget his mentor (none / 0) (#152)
    by blogtopus on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 08:03:25 PM EST
    Joe Lieberman. What else did Obama learn from him?

    Maybe Michelle's hesitancy to endorse whomever wins the nomination is because they haven't decided whether they are going to run a third party campaign or not.

    His hubris points to this solution if he loses the nomination.

    Parent

    Ha... (none / 0) (#161)
    by mindfulmission on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:05:23 PM EST
    ... I love how people bring up Leiberman to attack Obama, while completely forgetting that the Clintons are also quite close with Lieberman.

    Parent
    Ha (none / 0) (#191)
    by auntmo on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 11:31:06 PM EST
    Joe  Lieberman    is  Barak  Obama's  Senate  MENTOR,  mindfulmission.  

    Obama  CHOSE  him  as  his  mentor,  and  campaigned  for  him   against  Ned  Lamont

    Parent

    I think Clinton's financial problems.. (none / 0) (#38)
    by byteb on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:17:25 PM EST
    her loan to the campaign and information that campaign workers are going without pay..alters the dynamics of the neck and neck scenario. If she's perceived as being in a weaker position that could alter votes or it could alter who have to take the VP position. My take is that Hillary would be in line for VP now. Such billing was unthinkable until today and the disclosure of the loan.

    It won't matter (none / 0) (#40)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:18:28 PM EST
    AFTER the fact.

    It only matters if it causes a different result.

    Parent

    Clinton's Financial Problems (none / 0) (#175)
    by auntmo on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:43:48 PM EST
    Not  to worry.  Plenty of  money available.

    Besides, at  the  same  time  this  "news" made  the headlines,  Gallup  reports  a  sharp  uptick  for    Clinton   on Tuesday/Wednesday  after  her  wins.

    Gallup  now  shows  her   winning  52%   to  Obama's   39%.    

    Momentum   goes  to  Clinton,  and  money follows.

    Parent

    Re Obama/Clinton ticket. (none / 0) (#42)
    by oculus on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:19:42 PM EST
    That leaves Bill on the outside looking in.  Don't think so.

    Who cares? (5.00 / 1) (#46)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:21:01 PM EST
    Well, Obama for one. See his latest (none / 0) (#60)
    by oculus on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:28:39 PM EST
    mailer.  

    Parent
    Mailers (none / 0) (#176)
    by auntmo on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:45:42 PM EST
    You  will  see Obama's  mailers  get  dirtier  and  dirtier   as  he  follows  the  new  Gallup   numbers  and begins  to feel more and more  desperate.  Perhaps  the  "accidental" release of  these  completely  imaginary final delegate  numbers  are  part of   that panic.

    Parent
    dream ticket (none / 0) (#43)
    by sas on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:20:01 PM EST
    Putting them on the same ticket is the ONLY WAY.

    I know MANY Democrats who are so into this, and will be ticked off mightily if their candidate is not on the ticket.


    joint ticket (none / 0) (#56)
    by wasabi on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:27:27 PM EST
    I got this off an analysis of the New Mexico exit polls:

    Exit polling also showed that Obama was the clear favorite of liberal Democrats; Clinton led slightly among self-described moderates, who often are swing voters in general elections in New Mexico.

    Both on the ticket would really help make a super coalition.  The latte-drinkers, lunch-bucket carriers, blacks, latinos, "experienced voters" and the youth all together, advancing the Democratic cause.

    Sweet. But will it sell? (none / 0) (#63)
    by oculus on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:30:13 PM EST
    I would be highly surprised if Clinton (none / 0) (#64)
    by athyrio on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:31:03 PM EST
    ever accepted the VP slot as she is a very good senator and has more prospects there....why be smeared with Obama in case he screws up....

    Insult (none / 0) (#118)
    by Stellaaa on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:02:39 PM EST
    So the boy wonder gets the best of both worlds. He gets to play president while she does all the work to clean up the Republican mess? I can only imagine her doing it out of duty to the country.

    Parent
    Although my friends who voted for (none / 0) (#128)
    by oculus on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:15:52 PM EST
    Obama doubt her sincerity, I do believe that, if asked, and if she thought it would help the party, she would accept VP slot.

    Parent
    VP slot (none / 0) (#177)
    by auntmo on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:48:44 PM EST
    I  think you're  right  about  not  wanting  to be  smeared  by  Obama's   failure in the  general.  

    On the other hand,   after  all  the   negative  from  Obama's  campaign,  I'm  not  sure  Clinton as  Pres  would  be  willing to  accept  Obama on her  ticket.

    Parent

    I don't see why Hillary.... (none / 0) (#71)
    by CathyinLa on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:34:43 PM EST
    ...would be Veep.  She just won't.

    Why?

    A consolation prize for not getting the magic number?  This isn't going to seem like anything enticing to her.  She doesn't need to Vice Presidency to make viable at a future date.  It's now or never in her mind, I would think.

    And I don't get why Obama thinks it's a good idea to project that she won't get the magic number but she'll be leading.  The leader in delegates is going to have the upper hand.  They're conceding Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania to her?  Wow, they're confident, huh?  Get the nomination while not carrying a single heavily populated state except the one your from?

    one word HUBRIS (none / 0) (#86)
    by athyrio on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:41:35 PM EST
    he hasnt carried any major democratic state yet except Ill...major issues there....the core democrat isn't buying this...they need to wake up before they just simply hand the election to McCain...

    Parent
    HRC carried the popular vote, won all the big (none / 0) (#106)
    by Angel on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:53:22 PM EST
    states except IL.  And she won FL.  I will not speak to MI because of the others not being on the ballot (even though I still see that as their own mistake).  So all of these factors should be weighted heavily when the super-delegates vote (if it comes to this).  And BO has had too many states where the non-democrats voted which put him in position.  The CORE democrats are for HRC, and I don't think they will take it lightly if she doesn't get the nomination.  And I also don't think HRC will accept the VP slot.  She doesn't need to be BO's hood ornament.  She can still be a senator or do other worthy things.

    Parent
    I just don't see HRC as Obama's (none / 0) (#93)
    by oculus on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:46:53 PM EST
    VP either.  All the Dems. who are so worried she would drag the ticket if at the top won't shed that worry anytime soon.  

    Parent
    umm... (none / 0) (#94)
    by mindfulmission on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:46:54 PM EST
    And I don't get why Obama thinks it's a good idea to project that she won't get the magic number but she'll be leading.
    Read the projections in the original post again.

    They have Obama leading, not Clinton.

    Parent

    Thanks. (none / 0) (#102)
    by CathyinLa on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:51:39 PM EST
    I misread his number.  I'm going to be consistent.  Whoever has the lead has the upper hand.

    Parent
    But we still have to do something about FL and MI. (none / 0) (#108)
    by Angel on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:54:27 PM EST
    How does that pan out?

    Parent
    It pans out (none / 0) (#129)
    by andreww on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:16:11 PM EST
    by Hillary stealing the election and people like me getting pissed off and voting for the green party.

    Parent
    Fear card (none / 0) (#132)
    by Stellaaa on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:17:05 PM EST
    Fear card....

    Parent
    Andrew (none / 0) (#180)
    by auntmo on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:52:36 PM EST
    It  seems  Andrew  would  rather    disenfranchise  the  voters of  Florida  than  deny  his  Obama  the top  slot.  

    He  thinks  the  Floridians  getting  their  actual  votes  counted  might mean  Hillary  "stole"  the  election,   so  he'll  take  his  little  red   ball  to the  Green Party.  

    Don't  let  the door  hit ya......

    Parent

    Projections (none / 0) (#192)
    by auntmo on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 11:35:28 PM EST
    Those  projections  are  just  wishful  thinking  from  Obama's  CAMPAIGN.  

    They're not projections  from outside, based  on   facts.  

    It's  SPIN,  to make  Obama  supporters  feel  better    after  his  lousy   Super  Tuesday  showing.    

    Parent

    Watching him on tv (none / 0) (#122)
    by Stellaaa on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:07:35 PM EST
    Honestly, he drones when he answers questions. hum,hum...huh...

    He doesn't do soundbites (none / 0) (#142)
    by byteb on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:38:55 PM EST
    He'll learn, unfortunately.

    Parent
    doesn't do soundbites? (none / 0) (#148)
    by Kathy on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:54:01 PM EST
    Fired up and ready to go
    Yes, yes we can
    I would go on, but it makes my tummy hurt.

    Parent
    Just a note on Countdown (none / 0) (#139)
    by Cream City on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:29:26 PM EST
    tonight getting it wrong again re Wisconsin.

    We were just told that it's one of those "Starbucks" states, full of highly educated residents and lots of African Americans.  Not a "Wal-Mart state."

    Good grief, these pundits do live in the past and never look up a thing.  Wisconsin is below the national norms in levels of education -- and thus income.  And especially so for women, so they're Clinton's type of voters -- as women also vote more in Wisconsin than in almost any state.  

    And more than 95% of AAs that are here live in only one city, and in only a couple of places in that city -- one of the most segregated cities in the country.  So with the delegate-district setup, they don't translate to lots of delegates.

    And Wisconsin has been in the recession for a while already.  It's the economy here, as ever.

    There are reasons why Obama could do well in Wisconsin, but the pundits apparently aren't aware of them.  

    if anyone (none / 0) (#140)
    by athyrio on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:31:18 PM EST
    steals this election it will be the "be a democrat for a day" stuff...and ignoring the key democrats...and trying a power play while constantly badmouthing their opponent...that stuff won't be forgotten by the base...

    What would happen to Edwards' delegates (none / 0) (#145)
    by Teresa on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:43:21 PM EST
    in this scenario? If he frees them from their commitment, would they be enough to sway the result?

    if Edwards (none / 0) (#149)
    by Kathy on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:55:10 PM EST
    would grow a pair, he would see what Obama is doing, and how Hillary is pushing all of Edwards' social agendas, and endorse Hillary.

    I would not be surprised if Dean called him.

    Parent

    In our dreams, maybe (none / 0) (#150)
    by stillife on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:59:22 PM EST
    I was an Edwards supporter months ago, before switching to Hillary.  While I admire his progressive policies, there's something smarmy about him on a personal level (e.g., the way he sucked up to Barack in the NH debate) so if he endorses anybody, it'll probably be Barack.

    Parent
    You are probably right (none / 0) (#153)
    by Kathy on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 08:14:43 PM EST
    about Edwards.  And Someone Here might point out that he's just a politician; however, maybe he really is an old union boy, and if someone tells him it is for the good of the party...he'll fall in line?

    Okay, I admit I am a dreamer.

    We need to solve this, though.  We are wasting too much money on beating each other.

    Parent

    BREAKING NEWS (none / 0) (#157)
    by SpindleCityDem on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 08:43:10 PM EST
    While the Bill and Hillary write a check for $5 million, Barack Obama raised $5 million dollars SINCE THE POLLS CLOSED

    OMG (none / 0) (#159)
    by cannondaddy on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:00:09 PM EST
    they did.  I haven't even sent mine in yet...

    Parent
    Raising cash (none / 0) (#196)
    by auntmo on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 01:35:59 AM EST
    Hillary  raised  3 1/2  million  dollars  today,  and  still    receiving/counting.  

    Not  an Obama  advantage  anymore.

    Parent

    This morning ... (none / 0) (#164)
    by chemoelectric on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:01:04 PM EST
    ... the Rude Pundit advised Hillary Clinton to prepare for withdrawal from the contest, for the good of the party.

    Randi Rhodes, on the other hand, is desperately hoping for a brokered convention and back-room deals.

    Which route is more desirable, should it come to that? (It is a rhetorical question.)

    Withdrawal (none / 0) (#185)
    by auntmo on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 11:02:03 PM EST
    What  a  laugh!!!

    Hillary won   all the big  states, plus  more.  

    I'm  sure  she  got   a  good  laugh   at  the  "Hillary  should withdraw."

    Obama's  little  delegates  from  states  that  will  be  RED  in November  are  quite   a  joke.  

    Idaho,  Kansas, North Dakota, Utah,  Alaska,  Georgia, Iowa,  and    Alabama ,  in a  general  election,  will  go  RED  for  John McCain.  

    Obama   brings  NOTHING  to  the   Democratic  ticket  in     November.    

    Parent

    Oh, Stella! (none / 0) (#179)
    by Kathy on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:52:32 PM EST
    This is interesting.  No Quarter on a couple of juicy stories the press is sitting on:

     Comment by Larry Johnson | 2008-02-06 21:43:42

    I'm doing what I can to get it out. I'm not a liberty, yet, to use the sources and info. But here's a preview, one of the stories focuses on who his key backers were during his run for the State senate. Sounds pedestrian, but it is material that will be used to call into question his judgment and ethics. Then there is the Africa part of the equation. I share your concern and will get the stories out, hopefully soon.

    LINK

    key backers = Rezko???

    Must be someone besides Rezko. (none / 0) (#197)
    by oculus on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 01:44:04 AM EST
    This Surprised Me (none / 0) (#206)
    by LetMeDoIt90 on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:44:12 PM EST
    Know matter what it comes down to the votes and if they keep their promises. I just came across "The Leagues" FaceBook page. They ask you to vote for your favorite presidential candidate and your three top issues. After you vote they give you the result of your city. The result surprised me. I thought that my city were complete democrats. Check this out heres the link Apps.facebook.com/theleague