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Will Obama's Wave Crash at the Shore?

Interesting perspective today in the Toronto Star on the Obama wave:

It's the rumble of a political movement, a Barack Obama wave, building in the distance, about to break in a tsunami of inspiration, a torrent representing a clean break from old ways and a new chapter in American history. It is a national chant of "Yes We Can" swamping Hillary Clinton.

But the Obama wave breaks just short of the shore every time it appears ready to wash away everything in its wake.

For all the fervour of the arena rallies, the rapt thousands who hang on the senator's every word and call back to him with religious zeal, the wave has not crashed with all the ferocity bottled up in those venues.

What may be preventing the wave from cresting: the working class, women and 11th hour voters: [More...]

Clinton's rather wonky, reliable kitchen-table campaign prevails in reliably blue Democratic states like California, New York and New Jersey, where the best known brand name in the party still pulls in older women, working-class voters and Latinos, voters who have not been swayed by the arena magic of the young challenger.

On 11th hour voters:

Eleventh-hour deciders, those who make up their mind the day of the vote, or as late as the voting booth, break overwhelmingly for Clinton, as if putting an X beside the great agent of change gets a little too scary at the moment of truth.
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  • Display: Sort:
    Journalists are (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by IndependantThinker on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 11:41:21 AM EST
    supposed to be objective. I guess we have another swooning Obamotron writing prose.

    Are You Kidding? (none / 0) (#6)
    by squeaky on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 11:52:22 AM EST
    Doesn't seem like an Obama fan to me, in fact quite the opposite, he seems to be making fun of Obama and quietly shilling for HRC.

    Parent
    Nice try Tim Harper (5.00 / 2) (#2)
    by Militarytracy on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 11:47:29 AM EST
    as if putting an X beside the great agent of change gets a little too scary at the moment of truth.

    A better effort would be putting an X beside the great agent of warm fuzzy ambiguous change gets a little too scary at the moment of truth ;)


    Not Fair To Harper (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by squeaky on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:22:57 PM EST
    He casts Clinton in a more favorable light than Obama by reporting that the majority of US voters are not going to take a chance on inspiration alone and will vote on
    substance
    . Mark Penn gets the last word.

    Parent
    Just looked at the yahoo numbers (none / 0) (#3)
    by Militarytracy on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 11:48:33 AM EST
    projected for today's primaries.  I'm sorry but I'm just not buying those either.

    Parent
    Yahoo numbers? (none / 0) (#4)
    by phat on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 11:51:14 AM EST
    Where?

    I could use a good laugh.

    phat

    Parent

    Here's the link (none / 0) (#13)
    by Militarytracy on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:16:34 PM EST
    to the yahoo national map. link  Click on the states voting today.  I don't where they got the numbers from.

    Parent
    The numbers are worthless (none / 0) (#59)
    by andrewwm on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:23:23 PM EST
    It's the amount of search activity done on yahoo! for a candidate. So I wouldn't even say take with a grain of salt - just forget the numbers exist in the first place.

    Parent
    That messianic thing ... (5.00 / 2) (#16)
    by magisterludi on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:19:56 PM EST
    is becoming more and more the BHO narrative, and it's something he openly encourages. I've noticed many more are picking up on this as a concern. Obamoonies will not wear well in a general election.

    Heh, I personally feel like Obama would (5.00 / 1) (#21)
    by Militarytracy on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:23:19 PM EST
    hold his own fine against McCain.  Our moonies against their moonies........our moonies win this go around ;)  While I have a candidate choice though for the Democratic nomination I'd like to get back to a separation of church and state and I'd like the moonie free candidate myself ;)

    Parent
    well maybe, but personally i think the (5.00 / 4) (#58)
    by hellothere on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:22:58 PM EST
    ongoing almost military operation of the right is lethal. they are far more than just moonies. obama is in my opinion very naive on a number of issues.

    Parent
    I agree (5.00 / 3) (#96)
    by BernieO on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:44:11 PM EST
    I've said this before, but if you really want to get a in depth view of how the right wing operates and how the media aids and abets them, you need to read "The Hunting of the President" by Gene Lyons and Joe Conason. This book is a well-researched, accurate portrayal of their machinations in the 90's. It will curl your hair. Obama ought to get a copy and study it thoroughly. There is no reason to believe they have stopped these kinds of tactics.

    Parent
    I Personally Would Prefer A President (4.50 / 4) (#26)
    by MO Blue on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:38:21 PM EST
    that was not anointed by God. Eight years of that with Bush were eight years too many for me.

    Then you have to look at how this type of support will play out if Obama becomes president. What type of bones will he have to throw to this sector to maintain their support? Compromises on the SCOTUS, vouchers are just some of the areas I worry about.  

    Parent

    Sorry MO Blue (none / 0) (#31)
    by blogtopus on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:51:28 PM EST
    You stated the obvious. That's the new Obama corollary to Godwin's Law: If you bring out facts and figures to support your candidate favorably towards Barrack Obama, you immediately lose the argument.

    No biscuit! [/snark]

    Parent

    You're Right (5.00 / 1) (#88)
    by MO Blue on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:20:39 PM EST
    I took my comment too far. Don't have access to the religious demographics of all the primaries so far. Should have stopped with the fact that I don't like the religious rhetoric, brochures etc. of the Obama campaign. Too much of it bothers in much the same way that it does when Bush uses that type of language or imagery .

    Parent
    Obama's reliance on (5.00 / 3) (#103)
    by oculus on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 03:18:44 PM EST
    religious themese bothers me too.  I'm afraid he will sell out on SCOTUS nominations and Roe will be totally overruled.  

    Parent
    My fear as well.... (none / 0) (#105)
    by athyrio on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 03:41:22 PM EST
    Yeah, Obama supporters weren't (none / 0) (#163)
    by Militarytracy on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 08:48:31 AM EST
    that impressed with me when I pointed out that an endorsement from "Raising Kaine" wasn't a very good endorsement in the eyes of feminists and women concerned about their right to privacy......but what the hay......deaf ears and all.

    Parent
    Clinton actually wins among religious voters (none / 0) (#34)
    by andrewwm on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:55:49 PM EST
    So if Obama "owes" anybody a Supreme Court pick, it will be those crazy atheist young to middle age liberal Democrats. I'd be okay with him owing that group a pick.

    Parent
    I heard on CNN (none / 0) (#45)
    by Kathy on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:05:56 PM EST
    today that something like 90% of college student get their "news" from the internet.  They interviewed someone who said he would trust a "known" blogger about something more than he would trust a news station.

    Is it any wonder that this is Obama's base?

    Parent

    Trust no one (5.00 / 3) (#63)
    by Prabhata on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:27:45 PM EST
    Check the facts.  DKos and HP are so twisted that those two sites are the echo of the corporate media.

    Parent
    Given how crap CNN, FoxNews and MSNBC are (none / 0) (#47)
    by andrewwm on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:13:31 PM EST
    I would probably trust something from tpm more than what I hear on CNN too. Why's that so damning? And what does that have to do with religion?

    Also, getting their news from the internet can also meaning reading it on nytimes.com. I haven't had a dead-tree newspaper subscription for a long time because getting it online is so much easier.

    Parent

    church and state (none / 0) (#116)
    by sancho on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 04:33:06 PM EST
    doesn't obama say he does not think we should be asked to leave religion at the door when we enter the secular arena? what makes you think he is explicitly for the division of church and state?

    Parent
    separation of church and state (none / 0) (#154)
    by pewterman on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 10:25:55 PM EST
    sancho:  If you recall Barack's Kenynote Address, at the Democratic National Convention, he addressed this subject: "The separation of church and state is critical and has caused our democracy and religious practice to thrive." You can find more on this subject on Senator Obama's website listed under issues.

    Parent
    It would be wonderful if he campaigned (none / 0) (#164)
    by Militarytracy on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 08:50:03 AM EST
    sans the religious speaking style with the responding on cue flock.

    Parent
    I don't beleive the media hyped (5.00 / 2) (#23)
    by NJDem on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:28:08 PM EST
    HRC from June-October--she's never gotten great press in the last 16 years!  They did build up the "inevitable" thing", which would naturally come back to haunt her.  

    The bar was raised too high, so one mistake (like her answer to the illegal immigrants/driver's license question) and they're ready to attack.  And, the inevitable thing was stupid anyway--like a women would just easily win the nomination, especially one who is a former First Lady, oh, and her husband is Bill Clinton.  In fact, BC told her a while ago that the primary was going to be much easier than the general.

    No (none / 0) (#25)
    by andrewwm on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:30:19 PM EST
    there were a lot of negative stories about Obama during this period, when everyone was wondering if he could get it together and why his campaign was failing. Once the media got tired of that narrative, then it went into catching slip-ups by the front-runner.

    The media always wants to see a race - I bet they'd love it if the race went all the way to the convention; they'd be in ad heaven.

    Parent

    What negative stories about Obama?? (5.00 / 1) (#76)
    by Josey on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:59:23 PM EST
    Please cite examples (5.00 / 5) (#30)
    by NJDem on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:50:38 PM EST
    of negative press BO received--ever?  Maybe I over-looked them, but I never recall negative stories.  The press has always been on his side, when he was the clear underdog and the pro-Obama bias has been even more obvious since Iowa.  

    I'm curious if any former Edwards supporters agree.  It seemed to me that JE didn't get any press b/c the media was too obsessed with building up BO and taking down HRC?  

    as an edwards supporter first, i still have (5.00 / 3) (#52)
    by hellothere on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:19:30 PM EST
    heartburn about the way he was treated by the press. agent of change? naw,obama is just another salesman!

    Parent
    The Media and Edwards (5.00 / 2) (#74)
    by BarnBabe on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:51:08 PM EST
    Maybe it was just a ratings game. Look at the amount of full time news stations who need something to talk about to fill in the time. With Edwards, he was simply a good candidate with good ideas and talked the issues. Maybe they thought that was too boring for their listeners. Maybe they thought a BHO/HRC duel would being the ratings up for sponsor dollars.

    Parent
    sad to say! throw meat to the masses. (none / 0) (#91)
    by hellothere on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:24:31 PM EST
    it worked for the romans!

    Parent
    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHA (5.00 / 3) (#32)
    by athyrio on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:53:34 PM EST
    you think Obama has received negative press?? You aint seen nothing yet, kiddo...Just hold on and watch....

    I said this last night (5.00 / 2) (#39)
    by Kathy on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:02:23 PM EST
    but funnily enough, the only places I've seen Hillary getting better press is in the entertainment news (the ones that actually own up to it, I mean)  On Entertainment Tonight last night, they showed Obama saying something about running against the Clinton machine, and he looked really haggard.  And then they said that he was going to be on 60 Minutes this weekend to talk about his past cocaine use.  (!!!) Then, they cut to Hillary Clinton and she looked fresh and polished, and said something about being excited about the possibilities ahead for America.  VERY stark contrast.

    Then, you've got Whoopi on the View coming out for her, and Joy Behar is apparently a fan, and in Us Weekly, there is even a fashion spread where Clinton talks about her past sartorial blunders.  This Chelsea stuff isn't going away, either, and I predict Monday we'll see full coverage on all shows, plus perhaps something from John Stewart.

    I mean, this is really good press, and, though I don't have numbers, I would guess that Entertainment Tonight gets more dedicated viewers than the national news.

    Parent

    Fox news (5.00 / 0) (#78)
    by IndependantThinker on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:10:23 PM EST
    today reported on the suspension of Shuster and the 'pimp' comment. But Russert was his same old biased, hillary hating, self. Talked all about the loan Hillary made to her campaign and all the $$$ that Obama raised in January and February. No word on the amount of $$$ Hillary raised in February or January. He reports that Hillary's money problems would give Obama the edge for the rest of this campaign.

    Frequent retelling of the Time poll saying that Obama has a better shot at beating McCain. Why don't more ppl see the obvious agenda behind this retelling.

    I had to switch channels when the slant became to sickening.

    Parent

    Russert (5.00 / 2) (#104)
    by miriam on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 03:26:27 PM EST
    I saw that thing this morning, too.  All talk of Hillary Clinton's money "problems" and not a word about the stunning amount of donations ( nine million +) that mostly new contributors have made to her campaign in the past five days.  MSNBC, and presumably its parent NBC, have the most blatantly sexist coverage of HRC's campaign...it's worse than FOX.  At least we know what FOX is.  My tentative conclusion is that the boy talking heads like Matthews there at MSNBC, Russert most definitely included, feel so terrified, so threatened by the idea of a strong woman in the White House that they're become totally irrational on the subject of Hillary Clinton.  

    Parent
    Same thing yesterday on NPR (none / 0) (#108)
    by BernieO on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 04:07:02 PM EST
     The panel of journalists talked about how Hillary's donors were maxed out with no mention of her recent online donation surge. Diane Rehm show.

    Parent
    The bias shown (none / 0) (#120)
    by IndependantThinker on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 04:46:21 PM EST
    by NPR for BO has been one of my biggest disappointments. I am naive I guess but, I'd hoped they, at least, would be objective.

    Parent
    They Lacked Objectivity In The 04 Election Too (none / 0) (#126)
    by MO Blue on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 04:59:29 PM EST
    Very much a pro-Kerry and Edwards and very much anti-Dean.

    Very slanted coverage. Facts were distorted, more quotes from Kerry, a little less for Edwards and very little for Dean. It even extended to who they interviewed as supporters for the candidates. A Kerry supporter was always a well informed mature person and the Dean supporter was a 18 year old excited by voting for the first time. Believe it or not, Dean did have older voters supporting him.

    Parent

    Its all Lies (none / 0) (#148)
    by Salt on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 07:14:55 PM EST
    Look we are not maxed out,
    Nor did we not all go to college,
    Some of us even frequent Starbucks we have 4 within 3 miles 2 other coffee shops as well,
    Nor do we make under 100K,
    And I would never answer a pollster anyway,
    And I vote absentee,
    And many of us are males and YOUNG I know several................................................................just dont repeat this stuff its crap they haven't had a Hillary fact or poll right yet and remember Axelrod is a media insider and is playing them very well.

    Parent
    Russert Silly balls (none / 0) (#146)
    by Salt on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 07:05:58 PM EST
    ........this is how he dose his inane research he creates a news story spins and spins gets others triaged news groups to comment wrinkles his forehead and says ethically he now has to ask these supposed burning sillyballs....he did the same thing with the Race hate bating.  Hillary should not debate on MSNBC and not in Cleveland Ohio; she should instead as planned do the Franklin County debate on CNN.  Ohio is having some serious difficulties and silly antics by creeps like Russert are just not needed here and inflaming people for ratings is not healthy.  

    Politico.com is requesting Hillary question for Monday have you posted yours?  Lets not let Ocolytes be the only ones to post questions for Hillary. Hey Microsoft you buy Yahoo I cancel.


    Parent

    No Hillary Polls can be trusted (none / 0) (#89)
    by Salt on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:22:19 PM EST
    add 10 to 15 or dont dicuss them.  Russerts inane sillyballs...lol.

    Parent
    Obama has a better shot of beating McCain (none / 0) (#158)
    by pewterman on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 10:51:38 PM EST
    Independent Thinker:  You may need to switch more channels. A poll just released tonight on CNN reinforces the statement that Obama is favored against McCain. When pitted against Clinton, McCain is favored. I strongly tend to believe this poll judging from participants at an Obama meetup group in Houston Texas that I am a member of. We had several Republican's at the meeting tonight wanting to learn more about Obama. I spoke with several of these folks and they informed me they would possibly be supporting Obama if McCain wins the Republican nomination. Texas may not be that strongly in favor of Clinton after all, with Republicans crossing over to the Obama camp.

    Parent
    Entertainment Tonight probably (none / 0) (#60)
    by RalphB on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:24:47 PM EST
    has more viewers than the News shows combined.  MSNBC, CNN, and Fox have pathetically small audiences when compared to any non-cable network vehicle.  MSNBC is particularly tiny.

    Lately I've been wondering if all these shows have much of an effect at all on our politics.  I doubt it with most people.


    Parent

    Will that wave break in November? (5.00 / 2) (#35)
    by blogtopus on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:56:19 PM EST
    Seems that Obama has a hard time knocking strong competitors out. He's never had to before; this is likely the first real political fight he's had in his life. His candidacy in Illinois is 180 degrees spin from Hillary's 2000 candidacy in NY; we KNOW she can win with people who don't agree with her. We don't know the same of Obama.

    Has anyone realized that Obama is running a completely religious campaign? Cherry-picking facts, obfuscation of unpleasant truths, rhetoric in place of substance? Sounds like Intelligent Design to me, and that really makes me uncomfortable. It's a religious campaign with Obama as the God figure.

    the first half of your comment (none / 0) (#50)
    by Tano on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:17:53 PM EST
    seems pointless. If Obama can defeat Hillary, then he proves he can knock out a strong competitor. If he cant, he cant, and it would be moot. So what is your point?

    The second half of your comment is absurd nonsense. Why do you Clinton people seem so obsessed with proving to all of us what we suspect already - that you will say anything, pick up any meme and drive it to absurdity, if you think it will help your candidate? It doesnt help. Y'all like to strut your stuff about how tough you are when it comes to mocking and ridiculing, but it just makes your candidate, by association, look worse.

    Parent

    Pot meet Kettle (none / 0) (#66)
    by RalphB on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:29:00 PM EST
    thanks for the WashPost link athyrio (5.00 / 1) (#48)
    by NJDem on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:17:23 PM EST
    I guess BO walked into that one.  He's really is going to be talking about coke on 60 Minutes?  Mmmm, what's the strategy there?  I heard HRC will also be interviewed.

    And I agree with Kathy in that sometimes the only positive press for HRC comes from entertainment venues--I remember the snub being a big story on Inside Edition (or one of those shows).  

    as i stated in a personal opinion. (5.00 / 3) (#67)
    by hellothere on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:29:25 PM EST
    obama strikes me as very naive. and naive is something we don't need in the wh.

    Parent
    No Way (none / 0) (#82)
    by Salt on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:16:15 PM EST

    he is no fool, dont fall for the non threatening suit act, please.  Recall GWB act as a compassionate Tx shrub conservative ..................


    Parent
    If he is not naive or a fool (5.00 / 2) (#111)
    by BernieO on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 04:20:04 PM EST
    then why did he ask Rezko to help him buy a mansion he could not afford even though he knew Rezko was under investigation for corruption? The fact that the Rezkos paid full price for the lot, but Obama paid $300,000 under the asking price for the house smells really bad.
    Senators Mukowsky and Stevens have both been in trouble for getting sweetheart deals involving real estate. Did Obama think his image was so pure that no one would question him?

    Parent
    plus if thi isnt important (none / 0) (#114)
    by athyrio on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 04:31:51 PM EST
    why did they move the trial date back a week...I have faith in Patrick Fitzgerald tho...You cannot push that man around too much I don't think...

    Parent
    Archpundit will quickly clear up (none / 0) (#115)
    by oculus on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 04:32:51 PM EST
    any misgivings you or I may harbor re the real estate purchase.  

    Parent
    Obama's House (none / 0) (#160)
    by pewterman on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 11:05:38 PM EST
    I sure wish you folks would get your facts straight regarding the property Barack Obama purchased.  The house he purchased had been on the market for quite some time and the seller finally agreed to accept an offer. Rezko's wife was the lucky one to be able to purchase an empty lot next door, and yes paying the full asking price.  I would have too knowing Senator Obama would be owning property next door.  That alone just caused that empty lot to increase in valuation tremendously.  Later Mr. Obama negotiated a deal to buy a 10' X 150' strip of property from the empty lot next door to enlarge his yard, and yes he paid a very fair price for the strip of land. Proceeds from his book deal were used to buy his house.  It had nothing to do with the Rezko's. This entire transaction has been reported upon since before last year and was fully investigated by the Illinois authorities, who probably had more access to the facts than you or others who try to consture it to be more than it is. All of the information is available from the archives of the Chicago Tribune, as well as the Illinois Attorney General's Office.

    Parent
    well thanks! let me clarify! (none / 0) (#92)
    by hellothere on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:28:15 PM EST
    i think obama is naive. he has started believing his own press. bad mistake! he is cunning and has shown how manipulative he can be, and yes can do a great deal of damage.

    Parent
    oh agree, I also think its about O for O for sure (none / 0) (#101)
    by Salt on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 03:15:19 PM EST
    I am such a snob (none / 0) (#65)
    by Kathy on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:28:51 PM EST
    I thought, "Inside Edition?  I can't believe NJDem watches that crap!" (as I tout the View and Entertainment Tonight...pot, this is kettle, what's the 411?)

    But, yeah, he's gonna talk about the coke use, according to ET.  It will be interesting to see how it's played.

    Parent

    He has no choice (none / 0) (#85)
    by Salt on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:19:39 PM EST
    the republicans are moving to define and what was McCain doing when he was a young man.....and so on

    Parent
    Thanks Jeralyn (5.00 / 3) (#51)
    by NJDem on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:18:09 PM EST
    for all your hard work and keeping the blog going!

    make calls (5.00 / 2) (#53)
    by nycvoter on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:20:12 PM EST
    go to hillaryclinton.com and help those last minute deciders do the right thing!  make calls to Maine and Washington right from you home.  Make a contribution too

    Will do (5.00 / 1) (#79)
    by Salt on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:11:28 PM EST
    It's a cliche, but Obama doesn't (5.00 / 2) (#71)
    by MarkL on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:45:23 PM EST
    offer substance. Of course his website has many programs laid out, with a reasonable amount of specifics, but the speeches that are inspiring people, do so with remarkably little detail.
    He's not promising to make any specific change, IMO, except for the government reform proposals.
    Those are admirable, but off the mark, to me.
    I think a good leader accomplishes his goals with existing rules, rather than insisting that new rules are needed.
    Did FDR have anything like the open government that Obama envisions? Hell no, but he was a great President. Obama's reform proposals are not tied to a strong commitment to anything else---be it UHC, rolling back tax cuts, whatever.

    ridiculous (none / 0) (#84)
    by Tano on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:18:58 PM EST
    his policy proposals are every bit as extensive and detailed as Clinton's. And not very different at all. The whole mandates kerfluffle is a good example of how trivial the differences are.

    And he has matched her, detail for detail in all of the debates. You may prefer her slightly different positions, and you may think she expresses herself more clearly in the debate format, but there is no difference in the quantity of substance.

    He adds the inspiration on top of an equally detailed and equally progressive policy package. And it really seems to me that since Hillary doesnt have the added dimension, her supporters like to pretend that there is some difference in substance. Its the only argument they can muster.

    Parent

    Gives me the creeps (5.00 / 3) (#97)
    by zyx on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:50:45 PM EST
    a candidate hollerin' at his appearances like a wound-up gospel preacher, and his followers acting like the newly-converted, saved-by-the-Light-they-have-seen.

    I prefer more rational politics myself.  I have been run off of a politics discussion board that I participated on for three or four years.  The zeal of the Obama supporters--my former "friends--translated into misogynic nastiness towards those who didn't share their views.  I still read their comments sometimes.  It's all Obama-has-a-halo, here's a HuffPo piece, here's a MoDowd piece.  And they keep slipping in nasty little digs at women--while insisting that their wives, sisters, girlfriends, daughters, etc., all vouch that they are models of non-misogyny.

    They sure make me uneasy about Obama's inclusiveness.

    http://i255.photobucket.com/albums/hh157/blogtopus/poli8.jpg

    Parent

    well then go visit some (none / 0) (#99)
    by Tano on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 03:06:01 PM EST
    Clinton fan sites, and relieve yourself of the illusion that the creepiness is one-sided.

    Parent
    You Of Course Have A Right To Think (5.00 / 1) (#113)
    by MO Blue on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 04:29:01 PM EST
    that the mandates are trivial. I have a right to believe that they are the only way to cost effectively achieve Universal Health Care.

    You have a right to be inspired by Obama. I have a right not to base my vote on the fact that you find his speeches inspirational when I do not. Different people are inspired by different things.

    Parent

    One more time (none / 0) (#110)
    by BernieO on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 04:15:38 PM EST
    The mandates difference is hugely substantive. If you think it is not, you need to read more about what works in health care. Mandates are necessary to bring low cost healthy, generally younger people into the system. Because Hillary's program has mandates, the estimate of the per person cost is much lower than Obama's. The insurance companies are much more likely to cooperate if there are mandates because it will help them offset the effects of cost controlling measures that will eat into their profits. In addition many young people do not get insurance even though they can afford it. When they wind up in emergency rooms sick or injured, it is extremely expensive. The rest of us wind up picking up a lot of the costs because hospitals raise their fees to cover the uninsured. Some people will still not get insurance even if there is a mandate but this will be a lot less than if there is none.
    Obama has said in the past that he would prefer a single payer, universal system, but realizes that this is not politically feasible. This system has built in mandates because everyone is forced to pay taxes. Yet Obama has backed way off on this proposal and has clearly abandoned not only single payer, but universal coverage. So much for his audacity.

    Parent
    we have discussed this here over and over agian (none / 0) (#128)
    by Tano on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 05:06:40 PM EST
    and yet it seems that so many here are immune to actually hearing the other side.

    The issue is not mandates per se. The issue is when do you institute mandates. Why do you not deal with the issue as it is?

    Obama has stated that he would consider mandates, down the road, when the situation might become as clearcut as you describe it. When we reach a situation where the only people who dont have insurance are those young and healthy people who think themselves immortal - who can afford it but choose not to buy. At that point, mandates are an easy sell politically - for everyone else will be part of the system, and will see that the uninsured are simply irresponsible freeloaders.

    But for now, a mandated plan is a far more difficult sell politically. Hillary's plan puts an immediate mandate on 47 million people. Of course it also offers the PROMISE that insurance will be affordable. Personally, I am willing to believe that her plan really will be affordable to everyone (I'm not sure of that, but for the purpose of this argument I will accept it). But that is what you are laying out to people - and it isnt just the 47 million, it is everyone who fears that they may lose their insurance too - that they get a mandate, with penalties, and a promise.

    People dont respond well to politicians giving them mandates with penalites offset by promises. It makes far more sense to fulfill the promise first. Roll out the subsidies and the rest of the plan. Create the situation where health insurance really is affordable (with subsidies where necessary) to all. They you dont have to sell the penalties with promise. There will be a reality created - everyone will have insurance except the freeloaders, and then everyone will join in agreeing to mandates, because no one like to feel that one class of people is gaming the system.

    Substantivly, the two plans have trivial difference. Politically, Obama's plan makes far more sense.

    Parent

    Perhaps you confuse (5.00 / 1) (#131)
    by Kathy on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 05:10:21 PM EST
    our disagreement with your not being heard.

    I certainly do not speak for the group, but for myself: I hear you.  I just don't find what you are saying credible.  

    Parent

    and why is that? (none / 0) (#134)
    by Tano on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 05:25:12 PM EST
    do you have, like, an arugment against this logic

    Parent
    You stack up Obama's plan, (none / 0) (#135)
    by MarkL on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 05:28:35 PM EST
    with a possible addition of mandates later, at an unspecified time in the future, costing nearly twice as much per capita as Clinton's, and offer nothing at all in defense---just whining.

    Parent
    if you are hearing the argument (none / 0) (#136)
    by Tano on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 05:29:37 PM EST
    then why is it that everytime the issue gets raised I hear the same argument which fails to address the issue, as I reaised them?

    All I hear is this nonsense that it is an abandonment of universal care. I realize that that is Hillary's line, but that doesnt make it true.

    Parent

    Try looking at the numbers --- (none / 0) (#137)
    by MarkL on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 05:37:08 PM EST
    it will shut you up for a while, and you'll be a Hillary supporter at the end of the day.

    Parent
    Obama's health "plan" (none / 0) (#138)
    by zyx on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 05:50:43 PM EST
    sounds perfect for my twenty-something, healthy, single sons who will soon be too old to be covered by our insurance.  They can coast along with no insurance because they can't "afford" it.  If they remain healthy, they have gambled and WON.  If they get sick, they will pay a small surcharge, but they will get to buy insurance with only a modest penalty--unlike now.

    Win-win for them--no downside whatever.  For them.

    Parent

    Obama's Plan Is Structured To Please (none / 0) (#140)
    by MO Blue on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 05:57:51 PM EST
    your sons because they are a large part of his voting base.

    Parent
    You Have An OPINION That That Many (none / 0) (#139)
    by MO Blue on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 05:54:40 PM EST
    of us disagree with. The fact that you think something is NONSENSE does not make it true. It is strictly your opinion.

    You keep repeating yourself by stating your opinion. We keeping repeating our ourselves by stating our opinion. The fact is we disagree and I don't see how that is going to change anytime soon.

    Parent

    Yeah, it's like the Rezko aided (none / 0) (#141)
    by MarkL on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 06:20:42 PM EST
    home purchase. According to the Obama supporters, not only must we believe that Obama was not guilty of any legal or ethics failing---in fact, he did nothing wrong, in any way; furthermore, to assert the deal stinks gets an invitation to a reeducation camp.

    Parent
    huh? (none / 0) (#156)
    by Tano on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 10:43:16 PM EST
    yes, I express my opinion. I actually take the time to write out a long explanation of it.

    I realize that many of you have different opinions.

    I guess I have this funny idea that maybe an honest discussion of our different opinions might be enlightening for both of us.

    But no one still seems willing to engage the real issue. Just repeating the same lines at a surface level.

    What the heck - I guess I shouldnt expect much better from asking one more time, but here goes.

    What is wrong with the scenario I outline above - that you make the smart (yes, my opinon) political move of offering the benefits, so that everyone who wants insurance can afford it and buys into it, and then, only then, you propose a mandate to bring in those who are gaming the system.

    You arrive at universality just as you would under Hillary's plan - perhaps delayed a few years in its entirety, but the delay is only amongst people who really CAN buy it if they want it. And you greatly increase the odds of the whole thing passing, because you dont scare people at the front end with a government mandate, complete with penalties.

    Parent

    Flip flopped on mandates? (none / 0) (#151)
    by g8grl on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 07:22:40 PM EST
    I have never heard that Obama would consider mandates some time down the road if his plan needs them.  If it's true, he's pretty much shot himself in the foot since he sent out the pseudo Harry and Louise flyer ridiculing Hillary for requiring mandates.  

    Parent
    what can I say (none / 0) (#157)
    by Tano on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 10:45:20 PM EST
    I guess you just missed it. But he has said that many times. And it is not in contradiction to the charge in the flier - see my extended explanation above.

    Parent
    For the record-- (5.00 / 1) (#73)
    by NJDem on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:50:49 PM EST
    I don't watch Inside Edition, the clip was linked on another blog.  I almost added that point to my original post, but didn't think anyone would actually call me out, should have known better :)

    Well, 60 Mins should be interesting.  Does anyone know if it's just BO and HRC for the hour?  Wouldn't it be sweet justice to have Mike Wallace go after BO because he sees what a free ride he's gotten all along.  Wallace still does occasional interviews, right?  I've also had a dream where Walter Cronkite rips the MSN a new one for the way they're covered this election.  

    yeah...I don't watch that crap, either (none / 0) (#77)
    by Kathy on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:06:44 PM EST
    (actually, I got overruled this week...something being said about my political insanity?)

    Anyway, here is the link to 60 Minutes.

    Steve Croft gets Obama.  Katie Couric gets Hillary.  Doesn't sound like it's going to be hardball for me.

    And, as an aside, they're profiling the US Mint, too--coins and politics! My two passions combined!

    Parent

    cash and power? lol (none / 0) (#86)
    by cpinva on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:20:06 PM EST
    And, as an aside, they're profiling the US Mint, too--coins and politics! My two passions combined!


    Parent
    Working class and women, Asian and Latin (5.00 / 2) (#80)
    by lambertstrether on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:15:07 PM EST
    Not a bad place to end up.

    waves that crash (5.00 / 1) (#83)
    by cpinva on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:18:58 PM EST
    before reaching shore do so because there's nothing substantive behind them, to provide the necessary momentum.

    a perfect analogy for sen. obama. i think the more people see, read and hear about him, the more they come to realize that, at this point in time, he's just another pretty face.

    the nuts and bolts of government aren't fun, they don't make for a great 30 second sound bite. they require a lot of hard work and aren't particularly entertaining to watch. all that said, it's how things get done.

    sen. clinton gets things done.

    Am I crazy? (5.00 / 1) (#119)
    by Kathy on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 04:44:50 PM EST
    Okay, don't answer that.

    I just turned on CNN, and they were in LA, the lower 9th, talking about the extremely low voter turnout across the state.  They said two things that perked my ears:

    1.  There were questions about the massive Obama rally yesterday as to how many attendees were actually from LA and how many were bussed or flown in.  I don't mean by the campaign, but I've heard a couple of places that there are Obama groupies, sometimes in the hundreds, who follow him everywhere--anyone heard about this?

    2.  The reporter in the Lower 9th said that most of the voters she had seen (and, again, there were not many) were older women.

    "Older Women" is, to me, the accepted code for Hillary voters.

    I am thinking (and I may be wrong) that LA is not going to be as huge a win for Obama as folks were thinking.  And let me restate: I could be totally wrong.

    I read a couple of stories yesterday in the papers about Katrina refugees (we have a lot in Atlanta) who, after hearing Obama speak in NO, came away wondering what he was going to do for them.  I quote from memory here:  "Hope is nice, but that don't get me a place to live."

    Obama campaign (none / 0) (#124)
    by oculus on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 04:57:01 PM EST
    sd. HRC didn't shed any tears for Katrina victims.  Has Obama?  Do tears matter?  Hope not.

    Parent
    No tears (5.00 / 1) (#130)
    by Kathy on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 05:07:53 PM EST
    She just passed legislation.

    A lot of yankees (read: pundits) don't realize that one of the reasons folks in the South still love Bill Clinton is because he helped us during natural disasters.  My cousin in Florida was laughing about people saying Obama would win Florida.  Hillary was down there as first lady after the hurricane and served on the soup lines and passed out blankets and food.

    Maybe SC forgot about that, or maybe they voted with their hearts, but people in LA are too close to tragedy to forget.

    Or, I could just be talking outta my butt here.  I just heard someone say something on CNN about Hillary not getting enough credit for her accomplishments, so obviously, I am experiencing auditory hullucinations.

    (anybody rememebr that Hillary speerheaded the "Made in America" campaign for Walmart back in the 80s?)

    Parent

    My Friend (none / 0) (#144)
    by Salt on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 06:51:20 PM EST
    ..tells me that the difference between Needing Change and Wanting change...

    Parent
    Eh (1.00 / 1) (#5)
    by andrewwm on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 11:51:23 AM EST
    I don't really buy that narrative. I look at it this way: Clinton's had about 3 chances to really knock Obama out

    1. Iowa (he'd have been done if he lost)
    2. South Carolina (she could have sealed the deal here)
    3. Super Tuesday (taking a +100 delegate lead and he's done)

    By way of contrast, Obama's only really had one chance to sink Clinton.

    1. New Hampshire

    I don't think there was ever any reasonable chance Obama could have sealed the deal on ST; delegate-wise, he performed about as well as could have been expected.

    So Clinton failing to seal the deal might be a better narrative.

    Once Obama won Iowa, HC never had (5.00 / 5) (#7)
    by Teresa on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 11:59:13 AM EST
    a chance in SC. Before Iowa, black voters thought he wouldn't have a chance for the nomination and so they were for the candidate they thought would win and who they had traditionally voted for. After he won, he immediately got the AA vote and you cannot win SC without it.

    I think if Obama had won California, that would have been a serious, perhaps knock out punch to Hillary.

    Parent

    Hmm maybe (none / 0) (#11)
    by andrewwm on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:08:17 PM EST
    I think if the Clintons hadn't made those controversial remarks (whatever you believe their meaning to be, they certainly widened the AA spread between the two), Clinton could have kept SC close and blunted Obama's momentum. It was the fact that it was a blowout win more than anything else is what kept him in the race.

    Parent
    andrew, check the polls in SC after he won (5.00 / 1) (#20)
    by Teresa on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:23:02 PM EST
    Iowa. He immediately got the AA vote after he proved he could win. These were before whatever comments Bill made. In NH, they were already saying that she would lose the first four races (this was when the polls had him up in NH) and that was before BC opened his mouth.

    Parent
    The polls in South Carolina (none / 0) (#24)
    by andrewwm on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:28:42 PM EST
    were a lot closer between HRC and BO after NH. I don't think Clinton would have lost nearly that badly if she and Bill hadn't said what they said (regardless of what the actual meaning of what they said was).

    Parent
    SC would have been Obama's not matter what (5.00 / 1) (#49)
    by Prabhata on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:17:44 PM EST
    Black people voted up into the 70 percent for Obama in IA.  In SC black voters went for Obama at a lower percentage, but the number of black voters was huge.  Interestingly enough, a big hoopla was made of Obama's 55 percent win in SC, where HRC had to compete for the white vote with Edwards, a strong candidate in SC.  But the narrative was how great Obama did, and how lousy HRC lost, and it was BC fault.  There was no evidence of it.  The numbers did not bear that BC hurt Hillary because Hillary received a greater percentage of black voters in SC than she did in IA and NV (no numbers available for NH).  The only thing that will help Hillary is more women voters.  I'm convinced now, after visiting Crooks and Liars.  There is a posting about how maybe HRC loaned 5 million dollars to the campaign to get more donors.  Everything Hillary does is twisted by the Hillary haters which now includes the Obama people. There is nothing supporting the attacks, but they are repeated like those who blindly repeat Indian mantras.  By the way, I've noticed that Crooks and Liars now does not post videos of the abuse Hillary takes from the media.  The "pimped out" video never showed up until Shuster got in trouble.

    Parent
    i sent josh an email at tpm about his obama (5.00 / 1) (#62)
    by hellothere on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:26:00 PM EST
    support and that i no longer cared to visit. the email i got back floored me. he claimed not to be an obama supporter. hmm, i wondered about that. is he having second thoughts?

    Parent
    Hello (5.00 / 1) (#68)
    by Kathy on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:32:33 PM EST
    My cousin did the same thing--asking him to stand up about the Florida delegates (she lives in FL) and got back a really, really nasty reply that accused her of being on the Clinton Brigade.  She was very offended (she's an elementary school teacher and has one of those "let's all hold hands and be happy" attitudes--so, yes, the exact opposite of me).  She actually stopped reading all the blogs and doesn't even really check her email anymore.  She could not get over how nasty he was, and she's one of the original readers.

    Parent
    Agreed (none / 0) (#75)
    by Salt on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:58:11 PM EST
    ....they have become as rancid as Ann and Rush..  Even Fox is mild compared to the Obama MSNBC network looks even less attractive on the Donkeys butt doesn't it.  Excess and extreme I with her though certainly in spirit.

    Parent
    Do they get (none / 0) (#81)
    by IndependantThinker on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:15:21 PM EST
    $$$ from them?

    Parent
    Good point (none / 0) (#90)
    by blogtopus on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:23:40 PM EST
    How many of the big blog communities that rely on donations are beholden to the young hip internet crowd? I know that TPM relies on that for paying it's reporters.

    That said, I doubt this is why they do it. I think they honestly believe they are neutral.

    Parent

    well, he was very polite to me.(i think) (none / 0) (#93)
    by hellothere on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:32:14 PM EST
    when he claimed i must be confusing him with someone else i had to laugh. the thing is if he is a real obama supporter he should just stand up and be counted. kos did! i'll give him that. be proud of your choices. that is one of the reasons i think josh may be having second thoughts. maybe the price is too high for him.

    Parent
    well if Hillary loses after all this (5.00 / 1) (#102)
    by athyrio on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 03:17:47 PM EST
    media manipulation, etc. it will be fascinating to watch the "fall" of this "love bug" that has bitten all the Obamabots...It will come crashing down and wow will it be ugly...I have my popcorn and soda all ready for the show...

    Parent
    i do like your take on it. i'll bring popcorn. (none / 0) (#107)
    by hellothere on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 04:00:27 PM EST
    I have also gotten a snarky email from Josh (none / 0) (#112)
    by BernieO on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 04:25:08 PM EST
    Josh did great work uncovering the Justice Department scandals but he lacks objectivity in this race. The headlines alone show this. Greg Sargent is better.
    Bob Somerby of dailyhowler.com has been on Josh's case for a long time because for years he has ignored the media's trashing of democratic candidates like Gore and Kerry. Maybe bias doesn't bother him if he agrees with it. It is too bad to see him damage his crediblity this way.

    Parent
    Dont agree (none / 0) (#72)
    by Salt on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:46:35 PM EST
    I am one that believes the window to win is closing, hate to say it but I do, I really wanted a Hillary for President still do, but I don't think the Party is brave or strong enough to carry her through, the Progressives are viciously chewing off the Parties legs like wing nuts, and 60 mil in 2 months buys a lot of Super Delegates.  The parts are moving fast and this statement to me screams naive vulnerability a failure to grasp political tactics of obvious group grudges and how they are played is trouble for the Party in the GE. I read the Clinton thing very differently as a natural trap, the powerful white man lording over the black man, and Clinton walked into it, no big deal between family but a good bruise none the less.

    But the Republicans have two of their own group grudges perfected for years and are laying the ground work watch Charlie Rose program last night for a tutorial in the creepy world of State Rights and how they are starting to define Obama as a nice inspirational young black man pat pat but terrorist, oh my experience you know.  And the backup will be to move to the corrupt black politician the boneheaded mansion purchase, multiple federal trials freezer cash and a historic corrupt Dem City as back ground......... ugly and awful yes but real..

    Im thinking if McCain adds a certain female former governor who has a good chance of tipping her old State Red and corruption as a backdrop with an activist USA in her corner, a NE moderate with her own history with the Hispanic community, a known non Bush groupie, and McCain reintroduces as the champion immigration reform against his Party ....he now has his own first and a powerful Hispanic draw......

    Add there is no good way out of the disenfranchising of Fla and Mich none it should never ever happened in a Dem Party it will crack off a section of the base waiting to be stolen which ever way it swings.  Oh well ...sad.


    Parent

    another narrative (5.00 / 1) (#12)
    by Josey on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:10:30 PM EST
    The media has hyped Obama and given him a pass.
    Hillary is still standing!


    Parent
    And... (none / 0) (#14)
    by andrewwm on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:17:08 PM EST
    the media hyped Clinton from June until October, and Obama was still standing. The reality is that this race has been too complicated to be distilled into an easy narrative.

    Parent
    But a fresh debate would be nice (5.00 / 3) (#15)
    by Militarytracy on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:18:13 PM EST
    now that we are down to brass tacks.

    Parent
    andrew, the media has not hyped hillary. (5.00 / 1) (#94)
    by hellothere on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:33:57 PM EST
    open your eyes and mind a bit.

    Parent
    They did not hype her (5.00 / 1) (#117)
    by BernieO on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 04:34:28 PM EST
    They just reported that she had clearly outperformed Obama and the other candidates in all the early debates. I remember thinking that they were not happpy about it but she was so much better prepared and knowledgeable that they could not pretend otherwise. When she finally gave a less than sharp answer to the question about drivers' licenses in the Philly debate it gave them the opening they needed and they pounced. The pounding hasn't stopped since. Two weeks after the Philly debate, Obama blew the same question. This was after he had advanced warning that it was likely to be asked so it was a much bigger misstep. There was some talk at the time but it quickly died down. However, I heard several journalists bring up Hillary's supposed big mistake several times long after the talk about Obama had stopped. This is blatant bias.
    Many in the media admit to hating the Clintons. Chris Matthews is on record as saying that he hates Hillary and everything she stands for (reported in the Philadelphia Inquirer). This is the guy who drooled over Bush and disparaged Gore.

    Parent
    It does (none / 0) (#132)
    by zyx on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 05:15:07 PM EST
    remind me of how the press didn't like Gore in 2000.  Gore was too wonky for them.  They don't like that--and it makes journalists harsh.

    I hate to see Clinton get Gored.

    Parent

    Obama's expectations (5.00 / 1) (#27)
    by djork on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:40:17 PM EST
    What I still don't get is why Obama's "expectations" seems to be a different contest from actually winning the nomination. I never heard of a Democratic nomination strategy that involved losing by decisive margins in Cal.,Mass., NJ, FL, etc. When is the big win coming that will seal the deal?


    Parent
    The rules are what the rules are (none / 0) (#28)
    by andrewwm on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:44:41 PM EST
    There won't be one big win. But if there are a string of 9-10 wins in a row, with ties in OH and TX, that would basically seal the deal. He'd be up by +100 at that point.

    I don't get why everyone is getting so excited to disenfranchise red state democrats anyway. We should be rewarding them for being brave enough to be democrats in red states and using them as leverage to build up the party and be competitive everywhere, not telling  them that their votes are worth less.

    Parent

    The Rules Are The Rules Except When They Aren't (none / 0) (#129)
    by MO Blue on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 05:06:42 PM EST
    Super delegates are well established RULES. Yet, they are all of a sudden not to be considered at the convention.

    Parent
    Who says there needs to be knockout punch? (none / 0) (#37)
    by Geekesque on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:59:48 PM EST
    If Obama wins the most delegates, he wins the nomination.

    Obama will get a shot at a third knockout punch on March 4.  If he wins either TX or OH, that's probably enough.  If he somehow manages to pull off a miracle and win both, Clinton withdraws the next day.

    But, I don't see him winning both.  Rather, the question is whether he can keep those two states close.

    Parent

    An interesting list of big wins (none / 0) (#38)
    by Tano on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:02:12 PM EST
    Lets see now. I assume by big, you refer to big populations. Lets rank 'em

    CA
    FL

    NJ
    *

    MA

    One asterik is Georgia. Obama won that, decisively.
    Two asteriks = VA and WA. By Tuesday, Obama will probably win both.

    Parent

    oops sorry, (none / 0) (#40)
    by Tano on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:03:28 PM EST
    I guess askeriks are code, so this got screwed up.

    GA fits between Fl and NJ

    VA and WA between NJ and MA

    Parent

    hmm, just closing your eyes and ears (5.00 / 1) (#55)
    by hellothere on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:20:42 PM EST
    saying obama is winning, obama is winning doesn't make it so.

    Parent
    Does anyone know (none / 0) (#8)
    by NJDem on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:02:12 PM EST
    when we'll get the real, definitive delegate count from 2/5?  I know NM is re-counting and not all the absentee's are in from CA, right?  Is it possible HRC will have more than a 100 delegate lead?

    In actual delegates? (none / 0) (#9)
    by flyerhawk on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:06:38 PM EST
    That seems very unlikely.  

    If you include the nebulous superdelegates it is quite possible.

    Parent

    here is the total so far (none / 0) (#10)
    by english teacher on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:06:42 PM EST
    from cnn.  has clinton up by thirty five on super tuesday and almost 100 overall.

    http://www.cnn.com/POLITICS/

    no idea when the final total will be determined.

    Parent

    Probably about a month (5.00 / 2) (#17)
    by RalphB on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:22:06 PM EST
    after the nominee is chosen at the convention  :-)

    Parent
    That includes (none / 0) (#41)
    by flyerhawk on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:04:06 PM EST
    superdelegates.  They haven't actually voted in any way yet.

    Parent
    thanks English teacher (none / 0) (#18)
    by NJDem on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:22:49 PM EST
    but do all the print outlets and campaign's agree with these numbers?  Didn't AP have BO up by 2 just yesterday?

    I really hope this thing is wrapped up by March 4th--I just can't take this any longer!  Not to mention, it's bad for the Party.

    Take breaks (none / 0) (#22)
    by Militarytracy on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:25:56 PM EST
    have a wine and cheese party.  Nobody can stay sane and track this daily except Jeralyn.  But she can also sanely represent Timothy McVeigh too so she's special.  Me.....not so special.

    Parent
    I'm spending the afternoon (5.00 / 2) (#44)
    by Jeralyn on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:05:29 PM EST
    at two jails, 30 miles apart, unless I split them up one today and one tomorrow. I also have to fit in the nursing home to see the TL mom. I think the tracking keeps me sane -- and you readers.

    Parent
    oh, boy (5.00 / 4) (#46)
    by Kathy on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:06:54 PM EST
    you are in big trouble if you rely on us for sanity!  Hahahaha!

    I think you do us all a great service by keeping TL going, and I, for one, am very grateful to you.

    Parent

    We'll see how that wall holds up today (none / 0) (#29)
    by Geekesque on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:49:33 PM EST
    and Tuesday.

    If she has six losses where she doesn't pull 40% in the span of four days, she's in big trouble.

    To be blunt, if she doesn't keep things close on Tuesday, I don't see how she can hope to win the pledged delegate race.  

    She has no more New York's or New Jersey's left.

    No more New Yorks, (none / 0) (#33)
    by RalphB on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:54:26 PM EST
    just Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.  That ought to work out fine, or not, but either way it ain't over this week.


    Parent
    Not over this week, of course. (none / 0) (#36)
    by Geekesque on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:57:02 PM EST
    But, she really needs to win a state or two and/or keep the Potomac Primaries close.  What she absolutely can't afford to do is lose every contest between now and February 19 and let Obama run up the delegate score in the meantime.

    Parent
    Here's a bit ot new for you Geek (none / 0) (#43)
    by RalphB on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:05:24 PM EST
    Texas doesn't give a rat's butt how the people of DC or Maryland vote.  Momentum isn't squat in this cycle.  For people here, the primary will start when the candidates show up at our red state border.


    Parent
    Of course they don't. (none / 0) (#56)
    by Geekesque on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:21:39 PM EST
    But, if Clinton loses every state between now and Texas, most by blowout margins, she'll fall behind by 60-100 pledged delegates.  Not to mention the fundraising gap that will only expand if that happens.

    Then it becomes a question of how much ground can she make up in TX and OH.  A knockout punch for Obama by winning either TX or OH would be nice, but he'll take a ten delegate loss in each state.  

    Parent

    texas won't go for obama! (none / 0) (#64)
    by hellothere on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:28:16 PM EST
    If he gets 46% there I'll be happy. (none / 0) (#70)
    by Geekesque on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:40:09 PM EST
    Ditto for Ohio.

    Parent
    oh come on! you honestly think obama can (5.00 / 0) (#95)
    by hellothere on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:36:05 PM EST
    win the ge on 46% after losing new york and california. nah, no way! obama will cost the democratic party, with their cooperation, the election.

    Parent
    New York is Clinton's home state. (none / 0) (#118)
    by Geekesque on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 04:40:07 PM EST
    The universe does not revolve around New York and California.

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    No, the world does not revolve around NY & CA (none / 0) (#122)
    by Kathy on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 04:51:36 PM EST
    But, considering their populations of NY, NJ, MA, CA, and FL combined are over a third of America's population, it is very foolish to discount them.

    You cannot tell me that a state like Montana, where, if you spread out all the inhabitants, you could put one square mile between each of them, is as electorally important as NY or CA.

    It's not about the state--it is about the number of people.  If we are a democracy representing the voice of the people, then all the people should be heard.

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    Are NY, NJ, MA, and CA expected to be (none / 0) (#165)
    by Geekesque on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:51:42 AM EST
    in play in 2008?

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    The universe seemed to be (none / 0) (#123)
    by oculus on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 04:53:53 PM EST
    revolving about CA before Super Tues but not after.  

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    go back and study presidential (none / 0) (#147)
    by hellothere on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 07:09:10 PM EST
    campaigns and then come back and comment.

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    Oh come on! (none / 0) (#125)
    by independent voter on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 04:57:56 PM EST
    You really think, whomever the Dem nominee is they won't win NY state?

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    Texas won't go for Obama by hello there (none / 0) (#161)
    by pewterman on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 11:23:41 PM EST
    Hello There:  You must be in a different part of Texas. I just attended an Obama meetup group in Houston tonight. It was a diverse crowd, blacks, whites, asians, hispanics, and yes even a few Republicans. They ventured over to learn more about Senator Obama, stating if McCain were to be the Republican nominee, they just might swing to the Obama camp. Keep in mind, there are a lot of Republicans in Texas that are not too pleased with their home town boy, and McCain is like a mirror.

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    Texas (none / 0) (#166)
    by auntmo on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 05:32:57 PM EST
    In  you're  in liberal  Austin,  maybe....but outside of  Austin,   Obama  doesn't  have  a  chance.  

    They  don't  like  illegal  aliens  to be  given   driver's  licenses  down  here.  

    They  don't  like  Teddy  Kennedy,  and they don't  like  Move-0n.org.

    Not  too  many ultra-liberal  latte-drinkers  down  here  at  all.  

    Parent

    this is funny (none / 0) (#42)
    by athyrio on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:04:23 PM EST
    the response from the Clinton camp to the Obama camp when Obama keeps yelling about releasing her tax returns they are saying ok lets release all that Rezko information lol.....In the Washington Post...

    oh, that strikes me as REALLY smart (none / 0) (#54)
    by Tano on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:20:18 PM EST
    as if there arent mountains of documents in that long 35 years that are screaming to be let out into the sunlight!
    Sheesh - ametuer hour!

    Parent
    LOL (5.00 / 2) (#87)
    by blogtopus on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:20:32 PM EST
    Actually, you missed the 90's. Those mountains of paperwork were already worked over with a fine tooth comb, and we paid hundreds of millions for it.

    The findings? Nothing, zero, zilch. Not even Whitewater, that old chestnut, came up with anything that could be used against them.

    Are you a young voter, then, Tano? I honestly forgive you for not remembering this if you were 10 when it was going on. I have a hard time remembering Reagan's issues.

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    here is some friendly advice (none / 0) (#98)
    by Tano on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:57:55 PM EST
    sincerely - not part of any pissing match, but as one Dem to another. Yes, I am an Obama supporter, but I will vote for Hill if she is the nominee. I mean this constructivly.

    Hillary does NOT want to wage the rest of this primary campaign around the question of - how many ties can I point to between my opponent and some sleazy character. Trust me on this, she REALLY does not want to go there.

    Because she may think that she has Rezko to throw at Obama - even though there is no evidence whatsoever of any illegality or unethical behavior. And if that is the standard - that even substanceless associations are fair game to throw at your opponent, then geez louise, there a dozens, if not hundreds of links and associations that can be hurled back at her.

    Your point about nothing being proven is superfluous. Nothing has been proven re. Rezko - so she is here setting the bar nice and low - there doesnt have to be any merit to the mud.

    Really now, what are they thinking.

    and, btw, I have been a pol junkie since I spent my teen years anticipating a call-up to Vietnam, so I think I have a sense of how these battles play out.

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    She's not (5.00 / 1) (#100)
    by rebecca on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 03:10:40 PM EST
    The Rezko ties comments come out when he tries to tie her to sleaze.  It's a problem to have a candidate in a glass house throwing stones.  She's just showing him that he's living in a glass house.  

    The problem is that he's only showing how weak he is in this type of a fight.  He makes a punch and gets a worse one in return.  This only shows me he's not ready for the GE against the real experts in tying our candidates to sleaze and they won't care if about any friendly advice on how it will affect them.  

    Parent

    Well, now (none / 0) (#106)
    by miriam on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 03:43:07 PM EST
    We really don't know what there is to Rezko, do we? Obama has refused to be interviewed about it, so all we have is his word that his 19 year relationship with Rezko---whom he called "that individual"--was all just fine and dandy.

    When Rezko's trial starts I expect we'll have more facts to chew on, so I wouldn't get too confident yet.  I suspect this trial spells trouble for Obama.

    Parent

    what are you talking about (none / 0) (#109)
    by Tano on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 04:13:55 PM EST
    the Chicago paper published an extensive interview with him, on this very subject.

    And what is this great significance you attach to a reference to "that individual"? Are you claiming that Obama is like Bill ("that woman")? Oh mercy, low blow!

    Parent

    No, Obama used the term (5.00 / 1) (#121)
    by BernieO on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 04:49:48 PM EST
    "that individual" and "someone I know" to downplay the fact that Rezko was his mentor. Obama used to call him his political godfather, now he speaks of him as a passing acquaintance.

    Republicans managed to turn a land deal in which the Clintons lost $35,000 - their entire investment - into a huge scandal. This was investigated by three Republicans, Jay Stevens, Robert Fiske, the special prosecutor and Ken Starr, the independent counsel. It cost us tax payers $60 to 70 million dollars and nothing was found. The story originated in the claims of David Hale, a con man who was a Little Rock traffic court judge and no friend of Clinton. Hale got caught embezzling a couple of million dollars from our government so he decided to come up with something on the Clintons to get out of trouble. Ken Starr went to bat for him, but every jury that heard his testimony found him not believable. Yet our goofy media, particularly the NY Times' Jeff Gerth bought his lies and peddled them to the public.

    If the right wing could cause that much damage with no credible evidence, imagine what they can do with the fact that Rezko, a close ally and extremely crooked man helped Obama buy a house. Obama has admitted asking him to help because he could not afford the mansion and its adjoining lot. Rezko paid full price for the lot, Obama paid $300,000 under the asking price for the house. It is not legal for Senators to take anything of more than $250 in value from contributors, so this really looks bad. And that is without the Republican attack machine weighing in with manufactured "facts". My guess is that they are waiting to see if he gets the nomination, and then they will go after him full bore, which will be a disaster for our party.

    Parent

    Agree. (none / 0) (#127)
    by oculus on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 05:01:37 PM EST
    Wonder if Obama will mention his relationship with Rezko during the 60 minutes interview.  If he is trying to get his possible negatives, such as his use of cocaine as a young man, on the table during the primary race, he should also clarify his relationship w/Rezko.  

    Parent
    who needs republcians when we got you (none / 0) (#133)
    by Tano on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 05:22:12 PM EST
    totally distorting the deal?

    WHy does this have to be repeated over and over agian? Obama made the best offer on a house that was on the market for months, and the seller needed to move. The lot was also bought with the best offer - but one that matched the original asking price because there was another bid out there at almost that level.

    It doenst look bad because Obama did not get anything from Rezko. Rezko had nothing to do with the house purchase, and sold Obama a piece of the lot for the proportionate market price.

    If you think that the Republicans have exhausted the treasure trove of stuff on the Clintons then you are really fantasizing. They can find more stuff in one shack full of Chinese dishwashers contributing to her campaign, than anything with regard to Rezko.

    I cant beleive that you are so naive about how this stuff works that you can really believe that Obama is more vulnerable to this stuff than Clinton. Oh, lets start investigating the funding of the library, or Bills business connections over the past 8 years, or....

    Get serious bud. Its gonna be Whitewater on steroids, non stop.

    Parent

    Obama (none / 0) (#167)
    by auntmo on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 05:36:24 PM EST
    But  Tano,    they're   DROOLING  at  the prospect  of    picking   Obama  to pieces.   He's  their  fresh  meat.  

    Parent
    Political fiction (none / 0) (#162)
    by pewterman on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 11:36:58 PM EST
    BernieO:  Newt Gingrich is a writer of political fiction as well, perhaps you could apply as an apprentice.

    Parent
    yes, and the AA vote (none / 0) (#57)
    by NJDem on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:22:39 PM EST
    was down in CA.  If it's all about the (legitimate and understandable) pride of and AA being able to vote for the first viable AA candidate and not really issue-based, then I can see the novelty of it wearing away.  Let's not forget, it's all about GOTV.  

     

    Couldn't you say the same about women? (none / 0) (#61)
    by andrewwm on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:25:07 PM EST
    Obama has been gaining in the percentage of women's vote received lately too.

    Parent
    prove it! (none / 0) (#149)
    by hellothere on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 07:15:26 PM EST
    Audacity (none / 0) (#142)
    by kathlee on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 06:37:10 PM EST
    Just picking up on some of the comments:

    The only audacity I see Obama having is in running at all.

    Negative Press: Not sure this counts, but there was an article in the NY Times early last year that talked about his days at Harvard as head of the Law Review. The overall sentiment was that although Obama was good at getting his cohorts to take positions, he was never known to take a position--or, at least no one ever knew what it was.

    Entertainment Tonight: Never(rarely) watch, but I did hit the record button when I saw they were covering the candidates. Will watch it now.

    Competition: It isn't mentioned much anywhere, but the only opposition Obama faced in the Illinois senate race was ALAN KEYES!!!!!!!!

    I am happy to see people picking up the messiantic meme. How can anyone compare Obama to JFK?

    Last time I heard, only 20% of the population has cable/sattelite. Which means, most people never heard of Tweety.

    Rezko (none / 0) (#143)
    by kathlee on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 06:48:42 PM EST
    Rezko won't get any traction unless Obama becomes the nominee. Then they will swift boat him with it. Anyone see the Hannity and Colmes Focus Group clip where they ask the members to name one accomplishment of Obama's that stands out in their mind? No response. That will be the second plan of attack.

    BTW, front page story of NY Times was how the Republicans will run on a platform of "security". Guess Hillary can be glad she didn't apologize for her vote. With McCain as the nominee this is the only platform they can run on --fear, sure can't run on the economy or healthcare.

    All jesting aside, Democrats win when Democrats vote, so no matter what the outcome, everyone should vote. Still, it's HRC for me!

    I'm an independent (none / 0) (#145)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 06:55:47 PM EST
    just declared today.  I actually think McCain is a better candidate than Obama....it's not sour grapes, it's reality rearing its ugly head.  

    Parent
    I too am changing to Independent (none / 0) (#150)
    by athyrio on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 07:18:48 PM EST
    However, I just cannot vote for a republican knowing what they stand for....I might just sit this one out entirely tho...I am dropping my democratic membership after many years...It is sad...

    Parent
    I'm an independent (none / 0) (#152)
    by diogenes on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 08:22:36 PM EST
    who gave money to Obama because I will vote for him over McCain.  I will vote for McCain over Hillary.  The election will be won among the independent voters.

    Hate To Break It To Ya (none / 0) (#153)
    by squeaky on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 10:17:50 PM EST
    But you are not the center of the world. You not only do not represent Independent voters but the notion that Independent voters will be won because of Independent voters is hooey.

    Parent
    Another mischaracterization and smear... (none / 0) (#155)
    by Aaron on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 10:32:04 PM EST
    ...of Obama supporters and the atmosphere at Obama rallies and events, of which I have attended a number.  These cheap attempts to play the Obama campaign as relying on soft support and lacking substance are nothing more than propaganda, propaganda put forward by those who have a vested interest in overturning the will of the people, those who are threatened by democracy and its triumph over those who seek to undermine it.

    Rest assured I'm keeping track of all this misinformation and those who propagate it like the Toronto Star, and those in Washington who have a vested interest in supporting Hillary Clinton and fear a Barack Obama presidency.

    I Think (none / 0) (#159)
    by squeaky on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 11:04:03 PM EST
    You are hyperventilating. If HRC wins the nomination you will feel silly because you will be shilling for her as we all will be.

    Parent
    Obama soft support (none / 0) (#168)
    by auntmo on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 05:41:20 PM EST
    Here's  a  clue,  an example:  Rememer  all those  big  rallies in  New  Hampshire  for Obama  that  threw  the media off  as  genuine  support  for  Obama?  

    Half  the  people  attending  were  from  Massachusetts---young  people  come  to see  the new  rock  star---and  couldn't  even  vote  in New  Hampshire.  

    Some  stories  that  Obama's  campaign   bused   people into  Iowa ,  too , to pad  the   size of his   rallies  there  for  media  effect.  

    Parent